Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	89	Tim Worrell	2006	7.97
2	88	Matt Thornton	2015	2.61
3	87	Bobby Shantz	1964	3.26
4	85	Todd Jones	2006	4.36
5	85	John Franco	1999	3.10
6	85	Alan Embree	2008	5.40
7	84	Jay Howell	1994	6.07
8	84	Matt Belisle	2018	8.39
9	84	Kyle Farnsworth	2014	4.71
10	84	Rollie Fingers	1985	5.37
11	84	Bob Wickman	2007	4.29
12	83	Chris Hammond	2004	3.52
13	83	Al Worthington	1967	3.52
14	83	Stu Miller	1966	2.35
15	83	Troy Percival	2008	5.12
16	83	Hoyt Wilhelm	1961	2.87
17	83	Trevor Hoffman	2006	2.29
18	82	Paul Assenmacher	1999	8.73
19	82	Buddy Groom	2004	5.13
20	81	Tom Henke	1996	0.00	DNP
21	81	Brendan Donnelly	2010	6.16
22	81	Steve Reed	2003	3.41
23	81	LaTroy Hawkins	2011	2.79
24	80	Gene Garber	1986	2.65
25	80	Ron Reed	1981	3.82
26	79	Tom Gordon	2006	3.49
27	79	Trever Miller	2011	3.38
28	79	Ron Mahay	2009	5.01
29	79	Mike Remlinger	2004	3.93
30	78	Larry Andersen	1991	2.49
31	78	Scott Eyre	2010	0.00	DNP
32	78	Jason Grimsley	2006	4.88
33	78	Ryan Franklin	2011	8.78
34	78	David Weathers	2008	3.50
35	78	Doug Jones	1995	5.79
36	78	Francisco Cordero	2013	0.00	DNP
37	77	Chad Qualls	2017	5.94
38	77	Randy Choate	2014	4.50
39	76	J.J. Putz	2015	0.00	DNP
40	76	Mike Myers	2007	5.63
41	76	Mike Timlin	2004	4.13
42	76	Hector Carrasco	2008	0.00	DNP
43	76	Matt Herges	2008	5.60
44	75	Fernando Rodney	2015	5.17
45	74	Billy Taylor	2000	8.56
46	74	Scott Downs	2014	5.45
47	74	Grant Balfour	2016	0.00	DNP
48	74	Jose Valverde	2016	0.00	DNP
49	73	Joaquin Benoit	2016	3.19
50	73	Jim Brewer	1976	3.15
51	73	Tom Ferrick	1953	0.00	DNP
52	73	Tom Martin	2008	0.00	DNP
53	73	Neal Cotts	2018	0.00	DNP
54	73	Scott Atchison	2014	3.00
55	73	Joel Peralta	2014	4.41
56	72	Brian Shouse	2007	3.59
57	72	Guillermo Mota	2012	5.66
58	71	Jeff Nelson	2005	4.17
59	71	Tony Fossas	1996	3.83
60	71	Tug McGraw	1983	3.88
61	71	Jason Frasor	2016	0.00	DNP
62	71	Al Reyes	2009	0.00	DNP
63	71	Allie Reynolds	1955	0.00	DNP
64	70	Doug Brocail	2005	6.01
65	70	Ellis Kinder	1953	2.61
66	70	John Smoltz	2005	3.25
67	70	Rheal Cormier	2005	6.27
68	70	Hideki Okajima	2014	0.00	DNP
69	70	Javier Lopez	2016	4.05
70	69	Ron Villone	2008	4.86
71	69	Lindy McDaniel	1974	4.30
72	69	Roberto Hernandez	2003	5.55
73	69	Steve Hamilton	1973	0.00	DNP
74	69	Jamey Wright	2013	3.21
75	69	Rick White	2007	8.05
76	69	Rafael Betancourt	2013	4.71
77	69	Barney Schultz	1965	4.68
78	69	Darren Oliver	2009	2.71
79	69	Joe Borowski	2009	0.00	DNP
80	69	Billy Wagner	2010	1.82
81	68	Hisanori Takahashi	2013	6.00
82	68	Bob Gibson	1974	4.13
83	68	Bob Locker	1976	0.00	DNP
84	68	Dan Plesac	2000	4.73
85	67	Lee Smith	1996	3.90
86	67	Sal Maglie	1955	4.85
87	67	Bill Campbell	1987	10.80
88	67	Marv Grissom	1956	1.95
89	67	Waite Hoyt	1938	6.06
90	67	Bill Henry	1966	2.91
91	67	Steve Howe	1996	6.35
92	67	Kent Mercker	2006	4.76
93	67	Giovanni Carrara	2006	4.55
94	66	Joe Nathan	2013	1.39
95	66	Cal Eldred	2006	0.00	DNP
96	66	Roger Clemens	2001	3.84
97	66	Gaylord Perry	1977	4.08
98	66	Dennis Lamp	1991	5.38
99	66	Rudy May	1983	7.36
100	66	Andy Pettitte	2010	3.63

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Madson and Sean Doolittle came to Washington in the same midsummer trade, and the pair swiftly helped turn the bullpen around. It’s easy for Doolittle, who ended up taking over the closer’s spot, to get the bulk of the credit here—but Madson was way more than a footnote. After using the first half to bounce back from a somewhat lackluster 2016, he bounced even higher following the trade. Velocity issues had been primarily responsible for his struggles the season before, but he figured out a way to make things work in 2017 by relying on his sinker more than his four-seamer for the first time in a decade. Under contract for one more year, he should resume setup man responsibilities, a role he is familiar with and, frankly, has been overqualified for throughout his career.
2017		Madson has hardly been the picture of health, but he stabilized with the Royals during their 2015 run and made himself an enviable target for teams seeking bullpen depth the following year. The A's were first to the party, inking Madson to a three-year deal in hopes that the right-hander would return the above-average output he generated in Kansas City. The veteran reliever focused on refining his four-pitch arsenal, mixing in a curveball and bringing a little more heat off the mound, but velocity issues began to erode his stat line during the second half. Bouncing back will be no simple feat at age 36 and he’ll need more than a clean bill of health to retain his closer role.
2016		The former Philadelphia closer spent three years in the baseball wilderness struggling through intense pain, tortuous workouts and emotional weariness before chancing upon an obscure electro-stimulus device that he credits with reviving his career. Last year he surprisingly made the Kansas City roster out of spring training and rewarded his new employers with just the latest in a long line of quietly dominant bullpen campaigns. Madson used his mid-90s heat, cutter and baffling changeup to hold batters to a minuscule .208 TAv last season, better than Craig Kimbrel, Jeurys Familia and teammate Kelvin Herrera, and there's no reason to think he can't continue on as a dominant setup man. The A's gave him a three-year deal to test that conclusion.
2013		Talk about bad timing. Madson almost signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the Phillies in January before they went out and got Jonathan Papelbon. The Reds then inked Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million deal with a mutual option for 2013. He got hurt in spring training, had Tommy John surgery in April, and never pitched for his new team. The Angels signed him in November to a one-year, $3.5 million deal with performance and roster bonuses. He's a safe gamble for the Angels, who would like to have a famous closer but who don't strictly need one, thanks to the emergence of Frieri. When healthy, Madson is a near-elite reliever who showed the ability to close in 2011. Freakin' Papelbon.
2012		Last year was the year Madson finally learned to close. For years he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. Then for more years he bounced between the set-up role and temporary stints in the closer role. Since finding his role as a reliever, he has been remarkably consistent. His changeup is one of the very best in the game, and he sets it up with a mid-90s fastball that has excellent late life. It’s a superlative combination, and in 2010 Madson proved it was plenty to close—just in time to hit free agency. After narrowly missing on a deal to stay with the Phillies, Madson will head elsewhere and earn the first big payday of his career.
2011		In 2004, the team's inaugural season at CBP and his rookie year, Madson recorded a PhanaVision promo thanking the Phillies for building him a brand new ballpark. Since then, he’s become a Broad Street panacea and is now one of the five or so best non-closing relievers in baseball. Last season was Madson’s second year as the Phillies' best reliever, as well as the best of his career, and his changeup remains one of the best pitches in the game. Statistically, he has been at his best in high-leverage situations, but at the same time his split in save situations is decidedly worse than in non-save situations. However unlikely it seems, Madson might just be that rare beast: the natural set-up guy.
2010		Last year marked Madson's first full season working with the benefit of increased velocity, the result of mechanical adjustments he made during the 2008 season. As a result, he consistently reached 95 mph en route to becoming one of the elite relievers in baseball. As he grows accustomed to throwing harder, expect to see the appropriate adjustments in game-planning take form, resulting in even better numbers moving forward, and if the world is just and the Phillies sensible, more save opportunities as well.
2009		Madson made a nifty return from the '07 season spoiled slightly by his strained shoulder. In an interesting twist, he alternated with Romero in the set-up responsibilities—where Romero's role was defined by interesting collections of circumstances and his ability to work without rest days, Madson's role was to do the more classic, static work eighth-inning assignment, getting entire frames to himself from start to finish. With his shoulder back in working order and his last arbitration coming up, it'll be interesting to see if the Phillies make a multi-year commitment, or if his oft-stated desire to start will make this season his swan song with the club.
2008		One of the stranger stats of the year: lefty batters hit .170/.308/.284 off of Madson, in large part due to a unreal .206 BABIP. That helped him to something of a rebound year after his much-lobbied-for transfer to the starting rotation in 2006 was a miserable failure. It was all fun and games until Madson got hurt, landing on the DL in July with a shoulder strain and never coming back. The good luck against lefties won't hold up, even if Madson's arm does, but he should continue to be a serviceable, changeup-oriented middle reliever.
2007		Working as a reliever, Madson`s 2006 stats were pretty similar to his 2004 numbers; it was the time he spent starting that made his season look like a train wreck. Starting was what he wanted to do, and he won a rotation spot out of spring, lost it when Hamels came off the DL in May, and then regained it when Hamels went back on in June. Madson had ongoing problems with his curve last year, leaving him with just two pitches--an okay fastball and killer change. Only a few pitchers can go through a lineup more than once on only two pitches. Madson`s not one of them.
2006		Slated to be the No. 1 setup pitcher in 2006, Madson has also been considered for the rotation, and probably will be again if things go awry. The difference between his somewhat lucky 2004 and his slightly disappointing 2005 was that left-handed hitters figured out the tall righty, but he should be able to recover if he returns to throwing his fastball inside to lefties to set up his plus change outside. He also features an average curve with a slurvy break.
2005		Madson's season was not quite as good as it looks on the surface—note the difference between his ERA and his PERA. Nevertheless, the guy can pitch, facing hitters with one nasty change-up after another, and it was surprising that he made just one start for the Phillies given their injury problems. He'll likely get that chance in the future as he bulks up and refines his breaking pitch, though one wonders whether his success in the bullpen will doom him to it.
2004		Madson was the model of consistency at Scranton last year: From May 7 until the end of the year, his ERA never left the threes. He's also been the model of development, improving his numbers every year but one since 1998. Madson came to Triple-A featuring a fastball/curve/changeup combination?the last is his best pitch?but the team had him junk the curve and develop a slider. After two big league innings at the end of '03, Madson should get another shot in '04, and projects as the first starter should an injury occur.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2025, Ryan Madson threw 8,710 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2018, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2018, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph), Sinker (96mph) and Change (85mph), also mixing in a Curve (83mph). He also rarely threw a Cutter (94mph).