Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET
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2018 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2016-05-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||This year's Victor Robles?|
(Greg from NYC)
|I honestly don't think enough attention is being paid to this year's Yoan Moncada. He is slashing 318/450/500 with 30 steals in 41 games. That is Rickey Henderson stuff. (Jim Walsh)|
|2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who killed the 411?|
(Big Erv from Club DTM)
|It's not dead, it's just resting! Neither Siano nor I could give it the time and attention this year that we would've wanted, and we didn't want to mail it in, so we decided to leave it on the back-burner for now. But, think of the 411 like Rickey Henderson... not retired, just "not playing." Or maybe like Minnie Minoso, and we'll return for an at-bat or two at some point down the road. The podcast may be on hiatus, but the 411 philosophy lives on! (Cory Schwartz)|
|2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)||If Pete Wheeler were a real person, how many full seasons would it take him to break Rickey Henderson's stolen base record? |
(Joe Mielenhausen from New York)
|Four, maybe? That kid had some serious whee ... he was fast. (Ben Carsley)|
|2012-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||As Omar Vizquel enters his 24th season, is he worthy of the HOF?|
(ParklandTrojan from Pennsylvania)
|Nope. He's such a below-average hitter (.244 True Average) that it eats into his overall value considerably, and despite the Gold Gloves we have him at just ~11 FRAA for his career. He's not Ozzie Smith, Part Deux by any stretch of the imagination any more than Juan Pierre is Rickey Henderson, Part Deux. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2012-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Good chat. Over the last 15 - 20 years, who are some of your favorite players to go to the ballpark and see play and why?|
(Jerome from T Hills)
|Some of them are obvious - warts and all, I'm thrilled that I've gotten to see Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez as often as I have over the years - both have provided some incredible moments. Mariano Rivera, of course. I'm lucky to have seen Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson relatively late in their careers. Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and Randy Johnson were pretty special because the Mariners were a favorite before I came to New York, and a common point of reference for me and my brother. Manny Ramirez, when he was still an Indian, was a lot of fun. Jim Thome was a beast who seemed to homer every time he came to town.
Going further back, I'm thrilled I got to see Fernando Valenzuela pitch in person, even if it was only spring training. Likewise for seeing Reggie Jackson in spring training - both were huge parts of my childhood and adolesence. My first regular season major league game was Roger Clemens vs. Nolan Ryan in 1989 (read about it in today's column). That was incredibly special in retrospect because Ryan always meant a great deal to me.
I'm sure I've forgotten somebody, but that's a good start. (Jay Jaffe)
|2011-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||When I was a kid a had a "Nobody Beats the Wiz" poster with Willie Randolph, Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson and Don Mattingly on it. I loved that poster. No question, just wanted to share.|
(Charlie from Bethesda, MD)
|Their commercials weren't quite as annoying at Crazy Eddie's were. (Steven Goldman)|
|2011-01-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay - thanks again for the JAWS series this year. I'm submitting this question at 8:00am Eastern, so I don't yet know the results. My question is more of a suggestion - how similar is the relationship between Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson to that of Tris Speaker and Ty Cobb. In both cases, the paired players were contemporaries at the same position. In both cases, the former player was seen as awesome, but not the best in his role due to the continued presence of the latter. Hopefully, in both cases, the former player eventually gains enshrinement. What says you?|
(R.A.Wagman from Toronto)
|A question I'd have to research more fully to understand the attitudes toward Speaker and Cobb. Both of whom were apparently members of the KKK, to show you how standards of morality can shift over time. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2010-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Will the 2011 Padres be questioning whether all that division-leading, playoff contender stuff from the previous season was all just a really cool dream?|
(Peter from San Diego)
|"Marc will write something about this when he's done being depressed."--Marc
Yes, in the grand tradition of Rickey Henderson and...Mark Kotsay? (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/looking-at-2010-from-a-mark-kotsay-standpoint.php), that's a self-reference in the third person. (Ben Lindbergh)
|2010-05-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Could Reyes be someone who has been worn down by cumulative injuries to the point where he's lost pure athletic ability that he'll never get back?|
(Robert from New York)
|Possibly, but he was also at a ridiculous athletic level. His 80% is well over most people's 100%. It gets back to that BBTN chapter "What if Rickey Henderson had Pete Incaviglia's legs?" That he has a career at all is a testament to people like Vern Gambetta. Maybe he adjusts. I think I said that I wondered if Reyes would start hitting for more power to take some load off his legs and I still wonder about that. (Will Carroll)|
|2009-10-09 13:30:00 (link to chat)||How in the world does a player ever end up batting right and throwing left (a la Rickey Henderson)? It seems like a waste of a potential platoon advantage.|
(The Flying Bernard from Acton, MA)
|I throw left and I hit right. I think it's just from being a kid and learning from watching and playing with friends. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2009-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||How about Matt Weiters' chances? He's a lock already right?|
(David from DC)
|I guess you missed his induction back in July. His speech wasn't as good as Rickey Henderson's, but it still killed. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2009-06-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)||I thought I remember someone leaving Rickey Henderson off his ballot because he would get voted in from the other voters without question. Thus, he voted for someone else that was more on the bubble. Is there a limit on how many you can vote for in one year?|
(Adam from Chicago)
|I got kicked off again. Weird.
You can vote for 10. There haven't been 10 viable Hall of Famers on a BBWAA ballot in...well, a long time. (Joe Sheehan)
|2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||In honor of Jaffe's great article on Rickey Henderson's HOF candidacy, what's your favorite Rickey story?|
(Phil from NJ)
|My one meeting with Rickey happened at Wrigley Field. Nate Silver and I were down on the field, the first time Nate had gone through the gate. The Dodgers were warming up and I wanted to talk to someone just to get Nate the experience. Rickey jogs by and I ask him if he has some time. He stops and talks -- I'm sure the article is searchable -- then pauses, walks over to John Shelby and another teammate, and comes back to finish the conversation. The three things I remember is how polite and forthcoming he was, that he never referred to himself in the third person, and that Nate looked like a deer in headlights. Times change, Nate's a rock star, and Rickey will be a HOFer. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Ron Santo is going to get in this time, right? I feel for the guy, it actually matters to him.
Rickey Henderson, shoo-in. Jim Rice, inevitable.
Is anyone else even anywhere near possible?
(Mike from Chicago)
|Thank you for writing my entire JAWS series in a few sentences! The other guy who has a shot this yera is Andre Dawson, who polled 65.9 percent last year. Along with Rice and Blyleven, the only player not to get in after passing 50 percent is Hodges, so the odds are strong in favor of an eventual enshrinement. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)||When do will you start the HOF articles? Does Rock get anymore respect this year? Is this the year Blyleven gets in?|
(spencerja78 from Indy)
|Soon, hopefully very soon on the HOF series. Tim Raines is in for another tough year because of Rickey Henderson's presence on the ballot; 3000 hits and the runs and stolen bases records make him my Lock of the Week. Blyleven may get some love, but watch out for a surge from Jim Rice, who's in his final year on the ballot and barely missed last year. I strongly advocate against Rice, but the electorate seems to think otherwise. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-10-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What will the clowns say when Rickey Henderson isn't voted in unanimously? He might be one of the 25 best EVER.|
(Robert from DC)
|They'll cite the holdout, the "selfishness," the two strikes. They'll cite the speech, pulling a single quote out of context. Probably some reference to his attitude. No mention of his love for baseball. None.
Rickey Henderson is right there with Stan Musial among the most underrated players in baseball history. (Joe Sheehan)
|2008-09-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Where would you put Rickey Henderson when considering the "one guy from any time period to build your franchise around" premise? He'd have to be there somewhere, right?|
(dills from chicago)
|I thought of him too, especially if you can use him and his hamstrings as a CF (building up the middle again). I balanced him against Jackie and made the call on positional flexibility and leadership. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||With the Jays on the noggin, who's going to be the first player into the HoF with a Blue Jays cap?|
(Aaron from YYZ)
|Rickey Henderson? Fred McGriff? Lyle Overbay? Maybe a successful VC campaign for Dave Stieb?
That's a stumper. I honestly don't know the answer. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay, I've been having healthy debate RE: Rickey Henderson and the Hall... myh stance is that not only is he an inner circle HoF, but that he's one of the 10 best offensive players in the history of the game. Thoughts?|
(strupp from Madison)
|I'm not sure I could make a case for top 10 - the heavy hitters do win out, according to EqA and most other metrics - but inner circle for sure. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)||Joe, here is a hypothetical question. Your lineup spots 2 through 9 are set and you get to pick a leadoff hitter. Do you take the peak version of Rickey Henderson or Barry Bonds? Thanks!|
(Mark from CT)
|I take peak Barry Bonds for any role over any player in history except for Babe Ruth. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I love false nostalgia for a fake time in baseball...everything about Baseball in the 80's was an attempt to make it like other sports...multi-purpose stadiums all around, awful "modern" jerseys (Astros, White Sox, etc.) Emphasis on the speed game to make it "faster" . . . bad times. Baseball was trying to be something it wasn't. Look at the attendance...Baseball in the 80's stunk.|
(George W. from Alexandria, VA)
|You mean after the owners got together and decided to collude on salaries, they also colluded on offensive styles as well? You've completely misread history. Few teams emphasized speed to the exclusion of all else, principally the Cardinals, and that was only because that's how Whitey Herzog figured he could make his park work for him. Others had select players who could run and run really well, like Rickey Henderson or Eric Davis, but could also get on base and hit the ball out of the park. In many ways it was a more dynamic game, with all of those styles coming together to make a really varied offense. I would argue it was the apotheosis of all the eras that came before it, the truce between the lively ball and previous era of "inside baseball" and thus the epitome of baseball, a sampling of everything that made the game great... No defending the cookie cutter parks, but those were mostly the offspring of the 1970s and proved to be really transient. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-01-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How does slick fielding Oregon State Beaver Joey Wong project as a future professional baseball player? His glove can take him to the highest but what about his bat? |
(jaymoff from Salem, OR)
|Proud of Salem, right Jay? Joey is a good college lead-off player that, you're right, does some great things in the field. But in the end, this is a guy that is listed at 5-10, 160, and I doubt he's really that. Because he won't slug for much with a wooden bat, he needs to start showing Rickey Henderson patience as well as fantastic patience. In the end, though, playing in the MLB is probably a reach for Wong. (Bryan Smith)|
|2008-01-22 19:00:00 (link to chat)||In basketball, we can see a player clearly dogging it: watching Vince Carter is great exercise. Raiders fans clearly saw a slack-assed version of Randy Moss. Hockey players clearly coast around--at least some do.
Can we tell that sort of thing in baseball? I've been watching for decades, and I can't think of a guy who really looked slack on the field.|
(JJ Malone from Texas)
|I can think of a couple. Rickey Henderson -- who I mostly love as a player -- was criminally disinterested with the Mets his last time there as a player. I'm assuming he's more focused now that he's a coach. I've seen countless players dog it to first base on groundballs. It's sometimes hard to notice on TV because the camera follows the ball. You don't get to see the runner trotting to first. (Jim Baker)|
|2008-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Is it crazy to say that Rickey Henderson was one of the ten best players of all-time? I think no. Talk me down from the ledge. |
(Kottke from Memphis)
|Yes. It's very hard to get there without being an up-the-middle player, or without having incredible power.
The argument for Rickey as the third-best left fielder ever is interesting. Musial edges him, but Stan spent so much time at first base that you have to think it through.
Without looking it up, I'll say Rickey is between 27 and 32 on the greatest players ever. (Joe Sheehan)
|2008-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||But Lane bats right and throws left. That has to be worth something.|
(Roger from Brooklyn)
|He's practically Rickey Henderson. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-01-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)||So I have to say I don't quite understand the Raines HOF love around these parts (although I guess better that than more Rice love.) He was a very good player with a couple of great years and he did all the little things yeah yeah, but basically we are talking about seven at best good/great years and a bunch of filler. He was a good basestealer and an onbase threat, but he wasn't a fantastic defender and he didn't have much power despite playing a position where you usually like to see some. That doesn't seem like a HOF shoe in at all, but rather marginal at best. Obv the Hall is filled with many such characters (and a number of well below marginal ones), but is adding one more really something we want to make a big cause celeb over?|
(Alex from SF, CA)
|Raines had more than a couple of great years. He's one of the top 10 LFs of all time. compares quite favorably to the average HOF LF in terms of his value at his peak and over the course of his career. He was every little bit as valuable as Tony Gwynn both at his peak and over the coursse of his career due to his ability to get on base and to advance himself.
From the JAWS piece I wrote:
"According to JAWS, Raines compares quite favorably to the average Hall of Fame left fielder, breezing past both career and peak benchmarks. By this measure he ranks as the ninth-best left fielder of all time, behind Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Rickey Henderson, Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Jim O'Rourke, Ed Delahanty, and Carl Yastrzemski--some pretty fair ballplayers. If that sounds crazy, consider that the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract ranked Raines eighth back in 2001, calling him the second-most valuable leadoff hitter in history, behind only Henderson. If you weren't around for it, he was that good. Raines' overall WARP score ranks 81st all-time, 62nd among hitters. His peak score ranks 122nd all-time, 91st among hitters, and his JAWS is 88th all-time, 67th among hitters. If those numbers sound low, consider that the Hall of Fame contains 198 players whose major league careers we can measure via this method (i.e., non Negro-Leaguers or late-career crossovers like Satchel Paige and Monte Irvin), and historical estimates suggest we're witnessing another 30 or so Hall of Famers currently active."
For the rest of the piece please see here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7007 (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-10-21 17:00:00||NLCS Game 5||bobbailey (Canada): Steve, I see your point about batting order, but doesn't maxing out PAs for your best hitter (putting him leadoff) mean that he will be batting with many fewer men on base, even with the extra PAs? Especially in the NL. Batting Pujols leadoff just doesn't seem like a good idea. |
I think that you would lose in that transaction, but there are all kinds of other ways to skin that cat. I point to Billy Martin's 1985 Yankees, which often batted Rickey Henderson and Don Mattingly 1-2. Maybe Mattingly would have seen more runners if 75-90 walk guy Willie Randolph batted second, but Randolph also had no slugging, so he wasn't going to move Henderson more than one base, whereas Mattigly hit a lot of doubles and home runs. (Steven Goldman)