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Final 1987 NL Support-Neutral W/L Report by Michael Wolverton The Support-Neutral statistics evaluate starting pitchers by measuring the probability that each outing will lead to the starter getting a win (SNW), the starter getting a loss (SNL), and the starter's team winning (SNVA), given league average support from the offense and the bullpen. More information can be found in a short summary of the stats, or in a long detailed article. Best & Worst o Luckiest & Unluckiest o Reliever help o Flakiest & Steadiest o Team Rankings o Team-by-Team Stats o Definitions (Numbers through end of 1987 regular season) Top 30 ML Starters (ranked by SNWs over a .425 pitcher): Pitcher Team SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ScottM HOU 17.2 10.1 .630 16 13 3.42 2.6 3.2 5.6 WelchB LAD 16.5 10.2 .618 15 9 3.36 2.9 3.1 5.1 ReuschelR P/S 15.8 9.6 .622 13 8 3.44 2.7 3.0 5.0 HershiserO LAD 16.6 10.7 .608 16 15 3.53 2.5 2.8 5.0 RyanN HOU 14.5 8.2 .639 8 16 3.19 2.8 2.9 4.9 SutcliffeR CHI 14.7 10.9 .575 18 10 4.02 1.9 1.9 3.8 DunneM PIT 11.0 6.5 .628 13 6 3.64 1.7 2.1 3.6 MathewsG STL 12.6 9.2 .578 11 11 3.96 1.4 1.7 3.3 GoodenD NYM 11.7 8.1 .591 15 7 3.41 1.7 1.8 3.3 MagraneJ STL 10.7 7.7 .579 9 7 3.82 1.5 1.4 2.8 MartinezD MON 9.5 6.4 .600 11 4 3.67 1.6 1.5 2.8 DarwinD HOU 11.7 9.6 .547 9 10 3.98 0.8 1.0 2.6 DraveckyD S/S 10.8 8.5 .559 10 8 3.67 1.2 1.1 2.6 RawleyS PHI 13.7 12.7 .518 17 11 4.62 0.2 0.4 2.5 CarmanD PHI 12.8 11.9 .519 13 11 4.69 0.0 0.5 2.3 CoxD STL 11.5 10.5 .523 11 9 4.47 0.3 0.5 2.1 ValenzuelaF LAD 13.5 13.3 .505 14 14 4.30 0.3 -0.1 2.1 TroutS CHI 5.6 2.7 .676 6 3 3.24 1.2 1.5 2.1 DownsK SFG 10.7 9.6 .528 11 8 4.19 0.1 0.5 2.1 ShowE SDP 12.3 12.0 .507 8 16 4.32 0.2 0.3 2.0 SmithZ ATL 13.2 13.2 .500 15 10 4.83 0.0 0.1 2.0 PerezP MON 5.0 2.2 .691 7 0 2.69 1.5 1.4 1.9 HeatonN MON 11.5 11.3 .504 13 10 4.79 -0.3 0.1 1.8 SandersonS CHI 7.9 6.6 .543 7 7 4.70 0.1 0.5 1.7 HammakerA SFG 9.4 8.8 .517 9 10 4.16 0.2 0.2 1.7 FernandesS NYM 9.2 8.7 .513 12 8 4.32 -0.2 0.3 1.6 FisherB PIT 9.7 9.5 .506 11 9 4.58 -0.0 0.1 1.5 RobinsonR CIN 6.4 5.4 .543 6 3 4.37 0.4 0.4 1.4 ForschB STL 9.9 10.2 .494 11 7 4.64 -0.0 -0.1 1.4 LeachT NYM 5.1 3.6 .581 7 1 4.00 0.2 0.5 1.4 Return to Top Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNWs over a .425 pitcher): Pitcher Team SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KnepperB HOU 7.8 14.4 .351 8 17 6.03 -3.3 -3.2 -1.6 MadduxG CHI 6.7 12.2 .353 6 14 6.33 -2.5 -2.6 -1.3 CowleyJ PHI 0.2 2.7 .059 0 4 18.82 -1.7 -1.2 -1.1 KrukowM SFG 7.7 12.5 .380 5 6 5.67 -2.5 -2.3 -0.9 PenaA LAD 1.1 3.5 .233 0 5 6.56 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 LynchE CHI 1.4 3.9 .270 2 4 7.78 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 PattersonB PIT 1.2 3.5 .256 1 4 7.83 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 HawkinsA SDP 4.9 8.3 .370 3 10 5.61 -1.5 -1.7 -0.7 JacksonM PHI 1.3 3.4 .281 1 4 6.68 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 TibbsJ MON 2.6 5.1 .339 4 5 6.51 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 Return to Top Luckiest 10 ML Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)): Pitcher Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff. ------------------------------------------------ AguileraR NYM 5.6 6.7 11 3 9.0 DarlingR NYM 9.9 12.9 12 8 7.1 TudorJ STL 5.7 4.6 10 2 6.9 LancasterL CHI 5.5 6.9 7 3 5.3 RawleyS PHI 13.5 12.7 17 11 5.2 DeshaiesJ HOU 8.5 8.6 11 6 5.2 SmithZ ATL 13.1 13.2 15 10 5.0 ForschB STL 9.3 10.2 11 7 4.8 LeachT NYM 4.9 3.6 7 1 4.7 GoodenD NYM 11.6 8.1 15 7 4.4 Return to Top Unluckiest 10 ML Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)): Pitcher Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff. ------------------------------------------------ RyanN HOU 13.8 8.2 8 16 -13.7 ShowE SDP 12.0 12.0 8 16 -8.0 HoneycuttR LAD 5.1 7.7 2 12 -7.4 SebraB MON 8.4 10.1 6 15 -7.3 GrossK PHI 10.4 11.9 8 16 -6.5 AlexanderD ATL 6.5 5.7 5 10 -5.7 HershiserO LAD 16.6 10.7 16 15 -4.9 NolteE SDP 4.2 3.3 2 6 -4.9 ScottM HOU 17.2 10.1 16 13 -4.0 HawkinsA SDP 4.7 8.3 3 10 -3.4 Return to Top 10 ML Starters most hurt by their relievers (ranked by Runs Saved):
Act. Ex. Act. Fair Runs
Pitcher Team IR IR RA RA Saved
-------------------------------------------------------
LancasterL CHI 11 6.3 5.48 5.10 -4.7
CarmanD PHI 12 7.5 4.69 4.50 -4.5
CowleyJ PHI 5 1.8 18.82 16.17 -3.2
DeshaiesJ HOU 7 4.2 4.63 4.46 -2.8
MathewsG STL 15 12.3 3.96 3.84 -2.7
DunneM PIT 7 4.3 3.64 3.49 -2.7
SandersonS CHI 8 5.4 4.70 4.51 -2.6
BrowningT CIN 7 4.7 5.32 5.21 -2.3
SmithZ ATL 9 6.8 4.83 4.75 -2.2
DarwinD HOU 10 7.9 3.98 3.88 -2.1
Return to Top 10 ML Starters most helped by their relievers (ranked by Runs Saved):
Act. Ex. Act. Fair Runs
Pitcher Team IR IR RA RA Saved
-------------------------------------------------------
GrossK PHI 4 7.9 4.82 5.00 3.9
LaCossM SFG 3 6.8 4.06 4.29 3.8
YoumansF MON 4 7.8 4.87 5.17 3.8
RawleyS PHI 7 10.4 4.62 4.76 3.4
ShowE SDP 7 10.0 4.32 4.45 3.0
GrantM S/S 5 7.5 4.74 4.89 2.5
GoodenD NYM 0 2.3 3.41 3.52 2.3
RuffinB PHI 10 11.9 5.19 5.27 1.9
PerezP MON 0 1.9 2.69 2.93 1.9
BieleckiM PIT 1 2.9 4.93 5.30 1.9
Return to Top Flakiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by variance of SNVA): (20 starts minimum) Pitcher Team APW SNVA SNVA Var. ------------------------------------------ ReuschelR P/S 2.7 3.0 0.082 YoumansF MON -0.3 -0.3 0.079 GoodenD NYM 1.7 1.8 0.077 DownsK SFG 0.1 0.5 0.074 ScottM HOU 2.6 3.2 0.072 FisherB PIT -0.0 0.1 0.071 HeatonN MON -0.3 0.1 0.066 WelchB LAD 2.9 3.1 0.066 ShowE SDP 0.2 0.3 0.065 GrantM S/S -0.7 -0.7 0.063 Return to Top Steadiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by variance of SNVA): (20 starts minimum) Pitcher Team APW SNVA SNVA Var. ------------------------------------------ HawkinsA SDP -1.5 -1.7 0.026 DrabekD PIT 0.3 -0.3 0.034 HoffmanG CIN -0.6 -0.8 0.037 RyanN HOU 2.8 2.9 0.039 DarlingR NYM -1.4 -1.6 0.040 HammakerA SFG 0.2 0.2 0.043 HoneycuttR LAD -1.2 -1.0 0.047 CoxD STL 0.3 0.5 0.047 MoyerJ CHI -2.3 -2.1 0.047 MathewsG STL 1.4 1.7 0.049 Return to Top Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL): Team SNW SNL SNPct. E(W) W L RA AdjRA SNVA ----------------------------------------------------------------- LAD 62.9 55.5 .531 61.3 57 68 4.12 4.25 3.3 HOU 60.8 54.0 .530 59.2 53 65 4.19 4.37 3.0 STL 57.4 52.0 .525 54.8 59 41 4.36 4.29 2.9 PIT 59.0 56.5 .511 56.9 60 55 4.48 4.44 1.2 MON 55.9 56.7 .496 53.8 62 57 4.76 4.63 -0.4 SFG 55.6 57.7 .491 52.6 54 48 4.40 4.68 -1.0 NYM 54.8 59.1 .481 52.5 70 44 4.43 4.75 -2.4 CHI 53.1 60.2 .469 51.5 59 61 5.19 4.94 -3.3 PHI 52.5 60.9 .463 49.7 53 64 5.08 4.89 -3.6 SDP 50.3 61.0 .452 47.6 41 71 4.90 5.05 -5.2 CIN 49.7 61.8 .446 48.6 51 63 5.33 5.13 -5.9 ATL 49.5 62.3 .443 48.0 47 65 5.38 5.02 -5.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------- NL 661.6 698.0 .487 636.6 666 702 4.71 4.71 -17.4 Return to Top Team Luck Totals (teams ranked by ((SNW - E(W)) + (E(L) - SNL)): Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff --------------------------------------- NYM 52.5 59.1 70 44 32.6 STL 54.8 52.0 59 41 15.2 SFG 52.6 57.7 54 48 11.1 MON 53.8 56.7 62 57 7.9 CHI 51.5 60.2 59 61 6.8 PIT 56.9 56.5 60 55 4.6 CIN 48.6 61.8 51 63 1.2 PHI 49.7 60.9 53 64 0.3 ATL 48.0 62.3 47 65 -3.7 SDP 47.6 61.0 41 71 -16.7 LAD 61.3 55.5 57 68 -16.8 HOU 59.2 54.0 53 65 -17.1 --------------------------------------- NL 636.6 698.0 666 702 25.5 Return to Top Team Bullpen Support Totals (teams ranked by Bullpen Support of starting pitchers): Team IR E(IR) RA/A E(RA)/A SNVA_n SNVA BSup ---------------------------------------------------------- PHI 43 47.9 4.89 4.94 -3.10 -3.57 0.47 SDP 38 43.1 5.05 5.11 -5.15 -5.19 0.04 SFG 36 42.0 4.68 4.74 -1.10 -0.97 -0.13 PIT 34 31.9 4.44 4.42 1.07 1.21 -0.14 MON 35 38.2 4.63 4.66 -0.61 -0.45 -0.16 NYM 26 27.3 4.75 4.77 -2.70 -2.44 -0.26 LAD 38 35.4 4.25 4.23 2.75 3.28 -0.52 HOU 34 30.1 4.37 4.33 2.24 2.96 -0.72 STL 59 56.2 4.29 4.26 2.18 2.93 -0.74 CIN 36 30.0 5.13 5.08 -6.71 -5.93 -0.77 ATL 47 44.0 5.02 4.99 -6.84 -5.95 -0.89 CHI 51 43.8 4.94 4.88 -4.38 -3.26 -1.12 ---------------------------------------------------------- NL 477 469.8 4.71 4.70 -22.35 -17.40 -4.95 Return to Top Team-by-team stats: ATLANTA BRAVES Park Effect: +13.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AlexanderD 16 117.7 57 6.5 5.7 .530 5 10 4.36 0.6 0.3 1.3 ClaryM 1 4.3 6 0.0 0.8 .031 0 1 12.46 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 CoffmanK 5 25.3 14 1.5 1.5 .498 2 3 4.97 -0.0 0.0 0.2 DedmonJ 3 8.3 10 0.3 1.5 .154 0 1 10.80 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 GlavineT 9 50.3 34 2.7 3.7 .421 2 4 6.08 -0.7 -0.5 -0.0 MahlerR 28 171.0 106 8.3 11.6 .419 6 12 5.58 -1.3 -1.4 -0.1 McWilliamsL 2 8.3 8 0.2 1.0 .180 0 1 8.64 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 NiekroP 1 3.0 5 0.1 0.5 .087 0 0 15.00 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 O'NealR 10 52.3 35 2.6 4.0 .392 4 2 6.02 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 PalmerD 28 152.3 94 7.8 10.8 .421 8 11 5.55 -1.1 -1.3 -0.1 PuleoC 16 91.7 53 4.9 5.7 .461 4 8 5.20 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 SmithP 6 31.7 21 1.5 2.4 .388 1 2 5.97 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 SmithZ 36 242.0 130 13.2 13.2 .500 15 10 4.83 0.0 0.1 2.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 161 958.3 573 49.5 62.3 .443 47 65 5.38 -5.5 -5.9 2.0 CHICAGO CUBS Park Effect: +9.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- LancasterL 18 111.7 68 5.7 6.9 .454 7 3 5.48 -0.9 -0.5 0.4 LynchE 8 37.0 32 1.4 3.9 .270 2 4 7.78 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 MadduxG 27 149.3 105 6.7 12.2 .353 6 14 6.33 -2.5 -2.6 -1.3 MasonM 4 15.3 11 0.9 1.7 .330 2 1 6.46 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 MoyerJ 33 196.3 127 9.5 13.6 .410 11 15 5.82 -2.3 -2.1 -0.3 NolesD 1 7.0 4 0.3 0.4 .400 0 1 5.14 -0.0 -0.1 -0.0 SandersonS 22 122.7 64 7.9 6.6 .543 7 7 4.70 0.1 0.5 1.7 SutcliffeR 34 237.3 106 14.7 10.9 .575 18 10 4.02 1.9 1.9 3.8 TewksburyB 3 14.0 13 0.5 1.4 .261 0 3 8.36 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 TroutS 11 75.0 27 5.6 2.7 .676 6 3 3.24 1.2 1.5 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 161 965.7 557 53.1 60.2 .469 59 61 5.19 -4.5 -3.3 4.9 CINCINNATI REDS Park Effect: +7.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BrowningT 31 181.0 107 9.9 11.7 .457 10 13 5.32 -1.2 -0.9 0.7 GullicksonB 27 165.0 99 8.8 10.8 .451 10 11 5.40 -1.2 -1.0 0.5 HoffmanG 22 127.7 73 6.5 8.1 .447 6 10 5.15 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 LandrumB 2 7.3 10 0.1 1.3 .059 0 1 12.27 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 MontgomeryJ 1 5.0 5 0.1 0.7 .114 0 1 9.00 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 PacilloP 7 31.7 25 1.3 2.9 .310 2 3 7.11 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 PowerT 34 204.0 115 11.1 13.0 .459 10 13 5.07 -0.8 -1.0 0.8 RasmussenD 7 45.3 22 2.6 2.2 .539 4 1 4.37 0.2 0.2 0.5 ReussJ 7 34.7 31 1.4 3.5 .289 0 5 8.05 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 RobinsonR 18 105.0 51 6.4 5.4 .543 6 3 4.37 0.4 0.4 1.4 SotoM 6 31.7 18 1.5 2.2 .407 3 2 5.12 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 938.3 556 49.7 61.8 .446 51 63 5.33 -6.3 -5.9 2.3 HOUSTON ASTROS Park Effect: -8.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- DarwinD 30 192.0 85 11.7 9.6 .547 9 10 3.98 0.8 1.0 2.6 DeshaiesJ 25 151.7 78 8.7 8.6 .502 11 6 4.63 -0.5 -0.1 1.3 HeathcockJ 2 11.7 7 0.4 1.0 .292 1 1 5.40 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 HernandezM 3 18.3 10 0.6 1.3 .296 0 2 4.91 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 KnepperB 31 174.7 117 7.8 14.4 .351 8 17 6.03 -3.3 -3.2 -1.6 MallicoatR 1 1.7 4 0.0 0.7 .004 0 0 21.60 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 RyanN 34 211.7 75 14.5 8.2 .639 8 16 3.19 2.8 2.9 4.9 ScottM 36 247.7 94 17.2 10.1 .630 16 13 3.42 2.6 3.2 5.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1009.3 470 60.8 54.0 .530 53 65 4.19 1.8 3.0 12.0 LOS ANGELES DODGERS Park Effect: -6.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BelcherT 5 32.0 11 1.9 1.2 .626 3 2 3.09 0.5 0.4 0.6 HavensB 1 4.0 1 0.5 0.0 .917 0 0 2.25 0.1 0.2 0.3 HershiserO 35 262.3 103 16.6 10.7 .608 16 15 3.53 2.5 2.8 5.0 HillegasS 10 54.0 27 3.1 3.5 .465 4 3 4.50 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 HoltonB 1 5.0 2 0.3 0.2 .588 0 0 3.60 0.0 0.0 0.1 HoneycuttR 20 107.3 64 5.6 7.7 .419 2 12 5.37 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 HowellK 2 8.3 5 0.6 0.6 .512 1 1 5.40 -0.1 0.0 0.1 LearyT 12 64.3 39 3.2 4.6 .407 2 7 5.46 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 PenaA 7 35.7 26 1.1 3.5 .233 0 5 6.56 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 ValenzuelaF 34 251.0 120 13.5 13.3 .505 14 14 4.30 0.3 -0.1 2.1 WelchB 35 251.7 94 16.5 10.2 .618 15 9 3.36 2.9 3.1 5.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1075.7 492 62.9 55.5 .531 57 68 4.12 3.4 3.3 12.5 MONTREAL EXPOS Park Effect: +5.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- FischerJ 2 7.3 8 0.4 1.0 .292 0 1 9.82 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 HeatonN 32 193.3 103 11.5 11.3 .504 13 10 4.79 -0.3 0.1 1.8 HerediaU 2 10.0 6 0.4 0.7 .386 0 1 5.40 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 LeaC 1 1.0 4 0.0 0.7 .004 0 1 36.00 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 MartinezD 22 144.7 59 9.5 6.4 .600 11 4 3.67 1.6 1.5 2.8 PerezP 10 70.3 21 5.0 2.2 .691 7 0 2.69 1.5 1.4 1.9 SebraB 27 161.0 89 8.8 10.1 .466 6 15 4.98 -0.5 -0.6 0.8 SmithB 26 150.3 81 8.9 8.9 .499 10 9 4.85 -0.3 -0.1 1.3 SorensenL 5 21.0 16 1.2 2.2 .359 2 3 6.86 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 TibbsJ 12 66.3 48 2.6 5.1 .339 4 5 6.51 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 YoumansF 23 116.3 63 7.5 8.1 .481 9 8 4.87 -0.3 -0.3 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 941.7 498 55.9 56.7 .496 62 57 4.76 -1.0 -0.4 8.0 NEW YORK METS Park Effect: -14.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AguileraR 17 111.7 53 5.7 6.7 .459 11 3 4.27 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 CandelariaJ 3 12.3 8 0.9 1.2 .421 2 0 5.84 -0.2 -0.2 -0.0 ConeD 13 78.7 38 4.3 4.3 .501 4 5 4.35 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 DarlingR 32 207.7 111 10.1 12.9 .438 12 8 4.81 -1.4 -1.6 0.3 EdensT 2 8.0 6 0.2 1.0 .193 0 0 6.75 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 FernandesS 27 154.0 74 9.2 8.7 .513 12 8 4.32 -0.2 0.3 1.6 GoodenD 25 179.7 68 11.7 8.1 .591 15 7 3.41 1.7 1.8 3.3 InnisJ 1 4.0 2 0.2 0.3 .442 0 0 4.50 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 LeachT 12 74.3 33 5.1 3.6 .581 7 1 4.00 0.2 0.5 1.4 MitchellJ 19 109.7 64 5.0 7.9 .388 3 6 5.25 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 OjedaB 7 37.3 20 1.8 2.5 .411 3 4 4.82 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 SchulzeD 4 19.7 14 0.7 1.9 .287 1 2 6.41 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 997.0 491 54.8 59.1 .481 70 44 4.43 -2.5 -2.4 6.4 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Park Effect: +7.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CarmanD 35 211.0 110 12.8 11.9 .519 13 11 4.69 0.0 0.5 2.3 CowleyJ 4 11.0 23 0.2 2.7 .059 0 4 18.82 -1.7 -1.2 -1.1 GrossK 33 199.7 107 11.0 11.9 .480 8 16 4.82 -0.2 -0.2 1.3 HumeT 6 32.0 19 1.5 2.1 .411 1 3 5.34 -0.2 -0.2 -0.0 JacksonM 7 33.7 25 1.3 3.4 .281 1 4 6.68 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 MadduxM 2 11.0 2 1.0 0.4 .712 1 0 1.64 0.4 0.3 0.4 RawleyS 36 229.7 118 13.7 12.7 .518 17 11 4.62 0.2 0.4 2.5 RuffinB 35 204.7 118 10.5 13.8 .432 11 14 5.19 -1.1 -1.4 0.2 ToliverF 4 19.7 16 0.6 2.0 .228 1 1 7.32 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 952.3 538 52.5 60.9 .463 53 64 5.08 -3.8 -3.6 4.3 PITTSBURGH PIRATES Park Effect: +1.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BieleckiM 8 45.7 25 2.7 3.1 .466 2 3 4.93 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 DrabekD 28 174.3 86 9.3 9.5 .497 11 12 4.44 0.3 -0.3 1.4 DunneM 23 163.3 66 11.0 6.5 .628 13 6 3.64 1.7 2.1 3.6 FisherB 26 167.0 85 9.7 9.5 .506 11 9 4.58 -0.0 0.1 1.5 KipperB 20 105.0 70 5.2 8.6 .377 5 9 6.00 -1.6 -1.5 -0.7 PalaciosV 4 25.3 13 1.4 1.4 .487 2 1 4.62 -0.0 0.0 0.2 PattersonB 7 33.3 29 1.2 3.5 .256 1 4 7.83 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 PenaH 1 5.0 5 0.1 0.6 .141 0 1 9.00 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 ReuschelR 25 177.0 63 12.3 6.6 .652 8 6 3.20 2.7 2.8 4.3 TaylorD 8 41.3 29 1.6 3.7 .310 1 3 6.31 -0.8 -1.0 -0.6 WalkB 12 72.0 31 4.5 3.7 .550 6 1 3.88 0.6 0.5 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1009.3 502 59.0 56.5 .511 60 55 4.48 1.1 1.2 9.9 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Park Effect: +3.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ConroyT 9 40.3 26 2.3 3.2 .422 3 2 5.80 -0.5 -0.3 -0.0 CoxD 31 199.3 99 11.5 10.5 .523 11 9 4.47 0.3 0.5 2.1 ForschB 30 174.7 90 9.9 10.2 .494 11 7 4.64 -0.0 -0.1 1.4 HortonR 6 35.7 17 2.0 1.9 .516 2 1 4.29 0.1 0.1 0.4 LaPointD 2 10.7 8 0.2 1.1 .184 0 0 6.75 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 MagraneJ 26 167.3 71 10.7 7.7 .579 9 7 3.82 1.5 1.4 2.8 MathewsG 32 197.7 87 12.6 9.2 .578 11 11 3.96 1.4 1.7 3.3 O'NealR 1 5.0 1 0.4 0.1 .831 0 0 1.80 0.2 0.2 0.2 TudorJ 16 96.0 43 5.8 4.6 .554 10 2 4.03 0.6 0.6 1.3 TunnellL 9 46.7 30 2.0 3.6 .360 2 2 5.79 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 973.3 472 57.4 52.0 .525 59 41 4.36 2.7 2.9 10.9 SAN DIEGO PADRES Park Effect: -6.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- DavisS 10 45.0 30 2.2 3.9 .364 2 6 6.00 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 DraveckyD 10 54.3 25 3.4 3.0 .531 3 3 4.14 0.2 0.2 0.7 GrantM 17 102.3 59 5.6 7.2 .436 6 7 5.19 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 HawkinsA 20 110.7 69 4.9 8.3 .370 3 10 5.61 -1.5 -1.7 -0.7 JonesJ 22 125.3 71 6.6 8.4 .439 7 7 5.10 -1.0 -0.9 0.2 NolteE 12 67.3 28 4.5 3.3 .577 2 6 3.74 0.5 0.5 1.2 ShowE 34 206.3 99 12.3 12.0 .507 8 16 4.32 0.2 0.3 2.0 WhitsonE 34 202.7 112 10.4 13.4 .437 10 13 4.97 -1.3 -1.5 0.3 WojnaE 3 14.3 12 0.4 1.5 .222 0 3 7.53 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 928.3 505 50.3 61.0 .452 41 71 4.90 -5.2 -5.2 3.0 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Park Effect: -12.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- DavisM 11 61.3 32 3.4 3.9 .469 4 5 4.70 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 DownsK 28 167.7 78 10.7 9.6 .528 11 8 4.19 0.1 0.5 2.1 DraveckyD 18 112.3 43 7.4 5.5 .574 7 5 3.45 1.0 1.0 1.9 GottJ 3 14.7 11 0.5 1.4 .264 0 0 6.75 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 GrantM 8 45.7 19 2.5 2.4 .513 0 1 3.74 0.3 0.1 0.4 HammakerA 27 158.0 73 9.4 8.8 .517 9 10 4.16 0.2 0.2 1.7 KrukowM 28 155.7 98 7.7 12.5 .380 5 6 5.67 -2.5 -2.3 -0.9 LaCossM 26 155.0 70 8.8 8.9 .497 12 10 4.06 0.3 -0.0 1.3 MasonR 5 26.0 15 1.6 1.7 .490 1 1 5.19 -0.3 -0.0 0.2 ReuschelR 8 48.0 23 3.5 3.1 .535 5 2 4.31 -0.0 0.3 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 944.3 462 55.6 57.7 .491 54 48 4.40 -1.6 -1.0 7.4 Multi-team pitcher totals: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher Teams GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- DraveckyD S/S 28 166.7 68 10.8 8.5 .559 10 8 3.67 1.2 1.1 2.6 GrantM S/S 25 148.0 78 8.1 9.6 .458 6 8 4.74 -0.7 -0.7 0.6 O'NealR A/S 11 57.3 36 3.0 4.1 .423 4 2 5.65 -0.5 -0.5 -0.0 ReuschelR P/S 33 225.0 86 15.8 9.6 .622 13 8 3.44 2.7 3.0 5.0 NATIONAL LEAGUE Totals: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GS IP R SNW E(W) SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1942 11693.7 6116 661.6 636.6 698.0 .487 666 702 4.71 -21.3 -17.4 Return to Top Definition of terms: SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins, assuming he had league-average support. SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses. SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over what a league-average pitcher would be worth. The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring distribution, combined with simple probability theory. They are park-adjusted. SNWAR -- "Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level": the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions. SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL) W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings APW = Adjusted Pitcher Wins -- Thorn and Palmer's method for calculating a starter's value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs. E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise. (This is *true* expected wins) E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL Return to Top Comments and questions welcome. The raw play-by-play data used to generate this report was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711. |