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Final 1985 NL Support-Neutral W/L Report by Michael Wolverton The Support-Neutral statistics evaluate starting pitchers by measuring the probability that each outing will lead to the starter getting a win (SNW), the starter getting a loss (SNL), and the starter's team winning (SNVA), given league average support from the offense and the bullpen. More information can be found in a short summary of the stats, or in a long detailed article. Best & Worst o Luckiest & Unluckiest o Reliever help o Flakiest & Steadiest o Team Rankings o Team-by-Team Stats o Definitions (Numbers through end of 1985 regular season) Top 30 ML Starters (ranked by SNWs over a .425 pitcher): Pitcher Team SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ----------------------------------------------------------------------- GoodenD NYM 22.3 5.8 .794 24 4 1.66 7.4 8.1 10.4 TudorJ STL 20.5 8.4 .710 21 8 2.23 5.7 6.0 8.2 HershiserO LAD 16.1 9.3 .635 18 3 2.76 3.3 3.3 5.3 ValenzuelaF LAD 16.9 11.4 .598 17 10 3.04 2.9 2.7 4.9 ReuschelR PIT 12.9 6.2 .675 12 8 2.62 3.2 3.1 4.8 ReussJ LAD 14.5 9.4 .607 14 10 3.29 1.6 2.4 4.3 DraveckyD SDP 14.0 8.8 .615 13 10 3.16 2.1 2.5 4.3 WelchB LAD 10.9 6.2 .639 14 4 2.64 2.6 2.4 3.6 CoxD STL 15.1 11.9 .558 18 9 3.40 1.7 1.6 3.6 EckersleyD CHI 11.2 6.8 .624 11 7 3.24 2.4 2.0 3.6 BrowningT CIN 15.5 12.7 .550 20 9 3.82 1.3 1.4 3.5 SotoM CIN 15.3 12.4 .551 12 15 3.82 1.3 1.3 3.5 AndujarJ STL 15.9 13.4 .544 21 12 3.77 0.7 1.2 3.5 DarlingR NYM 14.7 11.7 .556 16 6 3.32 1.7 1.4 3.4 MahlerR ATL 15.6 13.3 .541 17 15 3.92 1.3 1.1 3.3 FernandesS NYM 10.8 6.8 .615 9 9 2.96 1.9 1.8 3.3 SmithB MON 13.3 10.3 .565 18 5 3.44 1.0 1.4 3.3 HawkinsA SDP 13.3 11.0 .549 18 8 3.46 1.4 1.2 3.0 HoytL SDP 12.9 10.5 .552 16 8 3.64 0.9 1.1 3.0 RawleyS PHI 12.2 9.7 .557 12 8 3.77 0.9 1.3 2.9 ShowE SDP 13.6 11.7 .537 12 11 3.67 0.9 0.9 2.8 HeskethJ MON 10.1 7.0 .589 10 5 3.01 1.5 1.5 2.8 GrossK PHI 12.4 10.4 .545 14 11 3.82 0.8 0.8 2.7 SutcliffeR CHI 8.8 5.8 .602 8 8 3.53 1.4 1.5 2.6 LynchE NYM 11.5 9.5 .548 10 8 3.54 0.8 0.9 2.6 SandersonS CHI 8.0 4.9 .619 5 6 3.64 1.2 1.6 2.5 ScottM HOU 13.2 12.2 .521 18 8 3.71 0.5 0.5 2.4 KrukowM SFG 11.2 9.6 .539 8 11 3.70 0.5 0.7 2.4 TroutS CHI 9.0 7.0 .563 9 7 3.65 1.4 1.0 2.2 GullicksonB MON 11.3 10.2 .525 14 12 3.87 -0.1 0.5 2.1 Return to Top Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNWs over a .425 pitcher): Pitcher Team SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ----------------------------------------------------------------------- LaskeyB S/M 6.2 11.8 .343 5 16 5.49 -2.8 -2.8 -1.5 McMurtryC ATL 0.6 3.3 .161 0 3 7.20 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0 PerezP ATL 4.9 9.0 .351 1 13 6.80 -2.6 -1.9 -1.0 KepshireK STL 7.6 12.5 .377 10 9 5.14 -2.0 -2.4 -1.0 WojnaE SDP 1.1 3.8 .233 1 3 7.31 -1.3 -1.2 -0.9 BarkerL ATL 3.7 7.2 .343 2 9 6.34 -1.6 -1.5 -0.9 EngelS CHI 1.7 4.0 .293 1 5 6.56 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 GuraL CHI 0.6 2.3 .201 0 3 8.83 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 McWilliamsL PIT 5.0 8.2 .378 6 8 4.97 -1.1 -1.5 -0.6 RogersS MON 1.4 3.4 .299 2 4 6.00 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 Return to Top Luckiest 10 ML Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)): Pitcher Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff. ------------------------------------------------ SmithB MON 13.0 10.3 18 5 10.2 ScottM HOU 12.8 12.2 18 8 9.4 HershiserO LAD 15.6 9.3 18 3 8.7 BrowningT CIN 15.4 12.7 20 9 8.3 HawkinsA SDP 13.3 11.0 18 8 7.6 DarlingR NYM 14.7 11.7 16 6 7.1 AndujarJ STL 15.9 13.4 21 12 6.5 KepshireK STL 7.4 12.5 10 9 6.1 CoxD STL 15.0 11.9 18 9 6.0 HoytL SDP 12.6 10.5 16 8 5.8 Return to Top Unluckiest 10 ML Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)): Pitcher Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff. ------------------------------------------------ DeLeonJ PIT 7.1 10.4 2 18 -12.7 LaPointD SFG 10.1 12.3 7 17 -7.8 BedrosianS ATL 11.5 12.6 7 15 -6.9 CarltonS PHI 5.2 5.4 1 8 -6.8 PerezP ATL 3.7 9.0 1 13 -6.8 HammakerA SFG 9.5 10.6 5 12 -5.8 SotoM CIN 15.2 12.4 12 15 -5.8 LaskeyB S/M 5.6 11.8 5 16 -4.8 KrukowM SFG 11.0 9.6 8 11 -4.4 TibbsJ CIN 11.8 12.7 10 15 -4.1 Return to Top 10 ML Starters most hurt by their relievers (ranked by Runs Saved): Act. Ex. Act. Fair Runs Pitcher Team IR IR RA RA Saved ------------------------------------------------------- DeLeonJ PIT 13 6.4 5.18 4.79 -6.6 PerezP ATL 17 11.3 6.80 6.26 -5.7 ForschB STL 11 6.4 3.98 3.61 -4.6 ReussJ LAD 12 7.9 3.29 3.11 -4.1 LaPointD SFG 11 7.3 4.31 4.15 -3.7 BlueV SFG 7 3.3 4.97 4.68 -3.7 WinnJ PIT 8 4.5 4.08 3.29 -3.5 GottJ SFG 11 7.6 4.43 4.22 -3.4 DraveckyD SDP 7 3.9 3.16 3.02 -3.1 TibbsJ CIN 13 9.9 4.47 4.34 -3.1 Return to Top 10 ML Starters most helped by their relievers (ranked by Runs Saved): Act. Ex. Act. Fair Runs Pitcher Team IR IR RA RA Saved ------------------------------------------------------- KepshireK STL 13 19.6 5.14 5.55 6.6 McWilliamsL PIT 2 6.1 4.97 5.32 4.1 McMurtryC ATL 0 3.9 7.20 8.59 3.9 ScottM HOU 4 7.0 3.71 3.83 3.0 HershiserO LAD 1 3.9 2.76 2.87 2.9 DarlingR NYM 8 10.9 3.32 3.42 2.9 TroutS CHI 4 6.8 3.65 3.83 2.8 AguileraR NYM 1 3.7 3.73 3.94 2.7 HawkinsA SDP 7 9.6 3.46 3.57 2.6 GrossK PHI 10 12.5 3.82 3.94 2.5 Return to Top Flakiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by variance of SNVA): (20 starts minimum) Pitcher Team APW SNVA SNVA Var. ------------------------------------------ GullicksonB MON -0.1 0.5 0.085 TudorJ STL 5.7 6.0 0.078 ValenzuelaF LAD 2.9 2.7 0.078 CoxD STL 1.7 1.6 0.073 GrossK PHI 0.8 0.8 0.071 SutcliffeR CHI 1.4 1.5 0.070 SotoM CIN 1.3 1.3 0.070 HershiserO LAD 3.3 3.3 0.069 HoytL SDP 0.9 1.1 0.068 ScottM HOU 0.5 0.5 0.067 Return to Top Steadiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by variance of SNVA): (20 starts minimum) Pitcher Team APW SNVA SNVA Var. ------------------------------------------ ReuschelR PIT 3.2 3.1 0.031 FernandesS NYM 1.9 1.8 0.032 GottJ SFG -0.9 -0.5 0.036 BlueV SFG -1.5 -1.3 0.036 FontenotR CHI -1.1 -1.5 0.036 LaskeyB S/M -2.8 -2.8 0.040 DeLeonJ PIT -2.0 -1.5 0.040 PerezP ATL -2.6 -1.9 0.042 BedrosianS ATL -0.1 -0.5 0.043 KepshireK STL -2.0 -2.4 0.045 Return to Top Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL): Team SNW SNL SNPct. E(W) W L RA AdjRA SNVA ----------------------------------------------------------------- NYM 70.8 47.7 .597 68.6 76 40 3.08 3.21 11.1 LAD 68.1 49.9 .577 65.4 73 42 3.25 3.35 9.0 STL 67.5 54.3 .554 65.9 79 46 3.59 3.66 6.5 SDP 62.3 55.6 .529 61.1 67 51 3.78 3.86 3.1 CIN 59.6 58.7 .504 59.1 58 56 4.27 4.06 0.3 PHI 59.1 58.4 .503 58.1 53 61 4.26 4.14 0.2 CHI 56.0 55.4 .503 53.2 49 61 4.39 3.91 0.5 MON 55.8 56.6 .496 53.7 58 56 3.97 4.21 -0.5 ATL 51.0 58.4 .466 47.7 39 68 4.70 4.37 -3.5 PIT 53.3 60.8 .467 51.8 42 72 4.46 4.46 -4.0 SFG 52.2 60.8 .462 49.9 39 72 4.37 4.55 -4.4 HOU 54.6 63.5 .462 53.2 59 52 4.31 4.49 -4.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------- NL 710.3 679.9 .511 687.7 692 677 4.02 4.02 13.8 Return to Top Team Luck Totals (teams ranked by ((SNW - E(W)) + (E(L) - SNL)): Team E(W) E(L) W L Diff --------------------------------------- STL 65.9 54.3 79 46 21.4 HOU 53.2 63.5 59 52 17.4 LAD 65.4 49.9 73 42 15.4 NYM 68.6 47.7 76 40 15.1 SDP 61.1 55.6 67 51 10.4 MON 53.7 56.6 58 56 4.9 CIN 59.1 58.7 58 56 1.6 PHI 58.1 58.4 53 61 -7.7 CHI 53.2 55.4 49 61 -9.8 ATL 47.7 58.4 39 68 -18.3 PIT 51.8 60.8 42 72 -21.0 SFG 49.9 60.8 39 72 -22.1 --------------------------------------- NL 687.7 679.9 692 677 7.3 Return to Top Team Bullpen Support Totals (teams ranked by Bullpen Support of starting pitchers): Team IR E(IR) RA/A E(RA)/A SNVA_n SNVA BSup ---------------------------------------------------------- LAD 25 25.7 3.35 3.36 9.08 9.02 0.06 CHI 31 33.3 3.91 3.93 0.46 0.46 0.01 ATL 46 47.2 4.37 4.38 -3.66 -3.55 -0.11 MON 29 28.8 4.21 4.21 -0.62 -0.50 -0.11 NYM 31 32.5 3.21 3.22 10.93 11.05 -0.12 SDP 34 33.8 3.86 3.86 2.84 3.14 -0.30 HOU 39 34.5 4.49 4.45 -4.96 -4.51 -0.45 STL 51 50.0 3.66 3.65 5.85 6.52 -0.67 CIN 40 34.7 4.06 4.01 -0.51 0.28 -0.79 PHI 45 41.1 4.14 4.11 -0.67 0.22 -0.89 PIT 45 38.5 4.46 4.40 -5.20 -3.95 -1.25 SFG 53 35.3 4.55 4.38 -6.40 -4.37 -2.02 ---------------------------------------------------------- NL 469 435.3 4.02 3.99 7.16 13.80 -6.64 Return to Top Team-by-team stats: ATLANTA BRAVES Park Effect: +13.8% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BarkerL 18 71.0 50 3.7 7.2 .343 2 9 6.34 -1.6 -1.5 -0.9 BedrosianS 37 206.7 101 11.7 12.6 .480 7 15 4.40 -0.1 -0.5 1.3 CampR 2 9.0 6 0.4 0.8 .342 1 1 6.00 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 JohnsonJ 14 82.7 44 5.0 5.3 .486 4 4 4.79 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 MahlerR 39 266.7 116 15.6 13.3 .541 17 15 3.92 1.3 1.1 3.3 McMurtryC 6 25.0 20 0.6 3.3 .161 0 3 7.20 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0 PerezP 22 95.3 72 4.9 9.0 .351 1 13 6.80 -2.6 -1.9 -1.0 ShieldsS 6 35.7 18 1.9 1.8 .508 1 2 4.54 -0.1 0.0 0.3 SmithZ 18 108.3 43 7.3 5.3 .578 6 6 3.57 1.0 1.0 1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 900.3 470 51.0 58.4 .466 39 68 4.70 -3.5 -3.5 4.5 CHICAGO CUBS Park Effect: +21.8% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AbregoJ 5 22.7 15 1.0 2.2 .300 1 1 5.96 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 BallerJ 4 22.7 13 1.2 1.5 .436 0 3 5.16 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 BotelhoD 7 39.0 26 2.0 3.1 .389 1 3 6.00 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 EckersleyD 25 169.3 61 11.2 6.8 .624 11 7 3.24 2.4 2.0 3.6 EngelS 8 46.7 34 1.7 4.0 .293 1 5 6.56 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 FontenotR 23 134.0 78 6.2 9.3 .400 6 9 5.24 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 GuraL 4 17.3 17 0.6 2.3 .201 0 3 8.83 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 PattersonR 5 34.7 13 2.1 1.3 .617 3 0 3.38 0.4 0.4 0.7 RuthvenD 15 79.7 46 3.9 5.4 .421 4 7 5.20 -0.6 -0.7 -0.0 SandersonS 19 121.0 49 8.0 4.9 .619 5 6 3.64 1.2 1.6 2.5 SorensenL 3 13.0 13 0.3 1.6 .150 0 2 9.00 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 SutcliffeR 20 130.0 51 8.8 5.8 .602 8 8 3.53 1.4 1.5 2.6 TroutS 24 140.7 57 9.0 7.0 .563 9 7 3.65 1.4 1.0 2.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 970.7 473 56.0 55.4 .503 49 61 4.39 1.4 0.5 8.7 CINCINNATI REDS Park Effect: +9.8% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BrowningT 38 261.3 111 15.5 12.7 .550 20 9 3.82 1.3 1.4 3.5 McGaffiganA 15 94.3 40 6.0 4.7 .565 3 3 3.82 0.5 0.7 1.5 PastoreF 6 36.7 14 2.1 1.8 .543 1 1 3.44 0.3 0.2 0.5 PriceJ 8 43.3 27 1.9 3.4 .360 2 2 5.61 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 RobinsonR 12 72.7 42 3.3 5.3 .382 4 6 5.20 -0.8 -1.0 -0.4 SotoM 36 256.7 109 15.3 12.4 .551 12 15 3.82 1.3 1.3 3.5 StuperJ 13 68.0 47 3.6 5.7 .386 6 5 6.22 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 TibbsJ 34 217.7 108 11.9 12.7 .483 10 15 4.47 -0.5 -0.5 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1050.7 498 59.6 58.7 .504 58 56 4.27 0.0 0.3 9.3 HOUSTON ASTROS Park Effect: -8.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HeathcockJ 7 43.0 23 2.3 2.6 .465 2 0 4.81 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 KerfeldC 6 30.3 19 1.6 2.5 .390 2 2 5.64 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 KnepperB 37 241.0 119 11.9 15.2 .439 15 13 4.44 -1.6 -1.7 0.4 KnudsonM 2 11.0 11 0.1 1.4 .075 0 2 9.00 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 MathisR 8 46.7 26 2.4 3.2 .424 3 3 5.01 -0.6 -0.4 -0.0 NiekroJ 32 213.0 100 10.9 12.7 .462 9 12 4.23 -0.8 -1.0 0.9 RyanN 35 232.0 108 12.0 13.6 .470 10 12 4.19 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 ScottM 35 220.7 91 13.2 12.2 .521 18 8 3.71 0.5 0.5 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1037.7 497 54.6 63.5 .462 59 52 4.31 -5.1 -4.5 4.4 LOS ANGELES DODGERS Park Effect: -6.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BrennanT 4 22.3 11 0.9 1.4 .394 0 2 4.43 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 CastilloR 5 23.7 13 1.1 1.8 .387 2 1 4.94 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 HershiserO 34 234.7 72 16.1 9.3 .635 18 3 2.76 3.3 3.3 5.3 HoneycuttR 25 132.7 65 7.4 9.0 .451 8 11 4.41 -0.7 -0.7 0.4 PenaA 1 2.3 1 0.2 0.2 .508 0 0 3.86 0.0 -0.0 0.0 PowellD 2 8.0 8 0.1 1.3 .069 0 1 9.00 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 ReussJ 33 210.7 77 14.5 9.4 .607 14 10 3.29 1.6 2.4 4.3 ValenzuelaF 35 272.3 92 16.9 11.4 .598 17 10 3.04 2.9 2.7 4.9 WelchB 23 167.3 49 10.9 6.2 .639 14 4 2.64 2.6 2.4 3.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1074.0 388 68.1 49.9 .577 73 42 3.25 8.8 9.0 18.0 MONTREAL EXPOS Park Effect: -12.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- DopsonJ 3 11.7 10 0.6 1.5 .280 0 2 7.71 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 GullicksonB 29 181.3 78 11.3 10.2 .525 14 12 3.87 -0.1 0.5 2.1 HeskethJ 25 155.3 52 10.1 7.0 .589 10 5 3.01 1.5 1.5 2.8 LaskeyB 7 30.3 33 0.5 4.6 .104 0 5 9.79 -2.2 -1.9 -1.7 MahlerM 7 41.3 18 2.2 2.5 .474 1 4 3.92 -0.0 -0.1 0.2 O'ConnorJ 1 1.7 9 0.0 1.0 .000 0 1 48.60 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 PalmerD 23 133.7 57 7.7 7.6 .503 7 10 3.84 -0.0 0.0 1.2 RogersS 7 36.0 24 1.4 3.4 .299 2 4 6.00 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 SchatzederD 15 87.3 37 4.6 4.9 .488 3 5 3.81 0.0 -0.1 0.6 SmithB 32 222.3 85 13.3 10.3 .565 18 5 3.44 1.0 1.4 3.3 YoumansF 12 72.0 26 3.9 3.6 .522 3 3 3.25 0.5 0.1 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 161 973.0 429 55.8 56.6 .496 58 56 3.97 -1.7 -0.5 8.0 NEW YORK METS Park Effect: -8.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AguileraR 19 118.3 49 7.1 6.7 .514 9 7 3.73 0.2 0.1 1.2 BerenyiB 3 13.7 6 0.9 1.0 .476 1 0 3.95 -0.0 -0.1 0.1 DarlingR 35 247.0 91 14.7 11.7 .556 16 6 3.32 1.7 1.4 3.4 FernandesS 26 170.3 56 10.8 6.8 .615 9 9 2.96 1.9 1.8 3.3 GoodenD 35 276.7 51 22.3 5.8 .794 24 4 1.66 7.4 8.1 10.4 GormanT 2 6.3 8 0.3 1.0 .239 1 1 11.37 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 LathamB 3 16.0 8 0.6 1.2 .323 1 2 4.50 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 LeachT 4 26.7 9 1.6 1.3 .552 3 1 3.04 0.3 0.2 0.4 LynchE 29 188.0 74 11.5 9.5 .548 10 8 3.54 0.8 0.9 2.6 McDowellR 2 10.3 9 0.3 1.0 .244 0 1 7.84 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 SchiraldiC 4 18.3 13 0.8 1.9 .294 2 1 6.38 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1091.7 374 70.8 47.7 .597 76 40 3.08 10.7 11.1 20.4 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Park Effect: +5.8% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CarltonS 16 92.0 43 5.3 5.4 .493 1 8 4.21 -0.0 -0.1 0.7 ChildressR 1 6.0 2 0.3 0.3 .528 0 1 3.00 0.1 0.0 0.1 DennyJ 33 230.7 112 12.1 12.7 .489 11 14 4.37 -0.5 -0.2 1.6 GrossK 31 193.0 82 12.4 10.4 .545 14 11 3.82 0.8 0.8 2.7 HudsonC 26 175.7 86 9.5 10.0 .488 8 11 4.41 -0.4 -0.3 1.2 KoosmanJ 18 96.3 55 6.4 7.3 .467 6 4 5.14 -1.1 -0.4 0.6 RawleyS 31 193.3 81 12.2 9.7 .557 12 8 3.77 0.9 1.3 2.9 RuckerD 3 18.0 11 0.6 1.3 .314 1 1 5.50 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 ToliverF 3 14.7 11 0.4 1.4 .209 0 3 6.75 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1019.7 483 59.1 58.4 .503 53 61 4.26 -0.9 0.2 9.2 PITTSBURGH PIRATES Park Effect: -0.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BieleckiM 7 38.3 20 2.1 2.9 .414 2 3 4.70 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 DeLeonJ 25 153.0 88 7.2 10.4 .408 2 18 5.18 -2.0 -1.5 -0.3 KipperB 4 23.7 16 0.8 1.9 .302 1 2 6.08 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 McWilliamsL 19 105.0 58 5.0 8.2 .378 6 8 4.97 -1.1 -1.5 -0.6 ReuschelR 26 189.0 55 12.9 6.2 .675 12 8 2.62 3.2 3.1 4.8 RhodenR 35 213.3 119 11.2 14.5 .437 10 15 5.02 -2.4 -1.6 0.3 RobinsonD 6 33.3 17 1.8 2.2 .453 1 4 4.59 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 TunnellL 23 129.3 69 6.4 9.2 .411 4 9 4.80 -1.1 -1.3 -0.2 WalkB 9 58.7 27 3.2 3.5 .475 2 3 4.14 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 WinnJ 7 39.7 18 2.7 1.7 .610 2 2 4.08 -0.0 0.3 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 161 983.3 487 53.3 60.8 .467 42 72 4.46 -4.5 -4.0 4.8 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Park Effect: -4.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AllenN 1 2.3 7 0.0 0.8 .011 0 1 27.00 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 AndujarJ 38 269.7 113 15.9 13.4 .544 21 12 3.77 0.7 1.2 3.5 CoxD 35 241.0 91 15.1 11.9 .558 18 9 3.40 1.7 1.6 3.6 ForschB 19 113.0 50 7.5 5.9 .560 8 6 3.98 0.0 0.8 1.8 HortonR 3 16.3 7 0.9 0.9 .517 1 0 3.86 0.0 0.0 0.2 KeoughM 1 2.0 5 0.0 0.6 .065 0 1 22.50 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 KepshireK 29 147.0 84 7.6 12.5 .377 10 9 5.14 -2.0 -2.4 -1.0 TudorJ 36 275.0 68 20.5 8.4 .710 21 8 2.23 5.7 6.0 8.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1066.3 425 67.5 54.3 .554 79 46 3.59 5.0 6.5 15.8 SAN DIEGO PADRES Park Effect: -4.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- DraveckyD 31 211.0 74 14.0 8.8 .615 13 10 3.16 2.1 2.5 4.3 HawkinsA 33 228.7 88 13.3 11.0 .549 18 8 3.46 1.4 1.2 3.0 HoytL 31 210.3 85 12.9 10.5 .552 16 8 3.64 0.9 1.1 3.0 JacksonR 2 9.3 5 0.6 0.7 .480 1 1 4.82 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 ShowE 35 233.0 95 13.6 11.7 .537 12 11 3.67 0.9 0.9 2.8 ThurmondM 23 118.0 65 6.7 9.2 .422 6 10 4.96 -1.4 -1.2 -0.1 WojnaE 7 32.0 26 1.1 3.8 .233 1 3 7.31 -1.3 -1.2 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 1042.3 438 62.3 55.6 .529 67 51 3.78 2.5 3.1 12.2 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Park Effect: -8.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BlueV 20 114.0 63 5.3 8.0 .396 6 7 4.97 -1.5 -1.3 -0.4 DavisM 1 4.0 6 0.0 0.8 .034 0 1 13.50 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 GottJ 26 148.3 73 8.1 8.9 .476 7 10 4.43 -0.9 -0.5 0.9 HammakerA 29 170.7 81 9.6 10.6 .475 5 12 4.27 -0.8 -0.6 1.0 JeffcoatM 1 3.0 6 0.0 0.8 .027 0 0 18.00 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 KrukowM 28 194.7 80 11.2 9.6 .539 8 11 3.70 0.5 0.7 2.4 LaPointD 31 206.7 99 10.2 12.3 .454 7 17 4.31 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 LaskeyB 19 114.0 55 5.6 7.1 .440 5 11 4.34 -0.6 -0.8 0.2 MasonR 5 29.7 13 1.7 1.8 .482 1 3 3.94 -0.0 -0.0 0.2 WardC 2 7.7 6 0.5 0.8 .374 0 0 7.04 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTALS 162 992.7 482 52.2 60.8 .462 39 72 4.37 -5.5 -4.4 4.2 Multi-team pitcher totals: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pitcher Teams GS IP R SNW SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA SNWAR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- LaskeyB S/M 26 144.3 88 6.2 11.8 .343 5 16 5.49 -2.8 -2.8 -1.5 NATIONAL LEAGUE Totals: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GS IP R SNW E(W) SNL SNPct W L RA APW SNVA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1942 12202.3 5444 710.3 687.7 679.9 .511 692 677 4.02 7.5 13.8 Return to Top Definition of terms: SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins, assuming he had league-average support. SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses. SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over what a league-average pitcher would be worth. The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring distribution, combined with simple probability theory. They are park-adjusted. SNWAR -- "Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level": the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions. SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL) W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings APW = Adjusted Pitcher Wins -- Thorn and Palmer's method for calculating a starter's value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs. E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise. (This is *true* expected wins) E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL Return to Top Comments and questions welcome. The raw play-by-play data used to generate this report was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711. |