Last update: Fri Jan 21 21:46:12 2011 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesusing Elo as the determining factor
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
Generated Tue Oct 5 07:16:19 EDT 2010
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 95.0 89.0 85.0 66.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 96 66 1557. 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Yankees 95 67 1553. 95.0 67.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Red Sox 89 73 1544. 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 85 77 1532. 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 66 96 1470. 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.0 88.0 81.0 69.0 67.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 94 68 1548. 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 White Sox 88 74 1526. 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 81 81 1505. 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 69 93 1471. 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 67 95 1448. 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL west: 90.0 81.0 80.0 61.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 90 72 1529. 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Athletics 81 81 1509. 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 80 82 1507. 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 61 101 1425. 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 95.0Average wins by position in NL East: 97.0 91.0 80.0 79.0 69.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 97 65 1569. 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Braves 91 71 1523. 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Marlins 80 82 1491. 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 79 83 1488. 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 69 93 1446. 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 86.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 57.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Reds 91 71 1524. 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cardinals 86 76 1507. 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 77 85 1486. 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 76 86 1480. 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 75 87 1487. 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 57 105 1399. 57.0 105.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL West: 92.0 90.0 83.0 80.0 65.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Giants 92 70 1532. 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Padres 90 72 1505. 90.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 83 79 1497. 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Dodgers 80 82 1489. 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 65 97 1452. 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.