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Hit List Factor: it says that it's the average of four columns (actual, W1, W2, W3). Is that a mistake? If not, why is the O's number smaller than all four columns?
I'm curious as to why there is a standard +/- 20 points in the Adjusted Hit List Factor between AL and NL teams. First, isn't some portion of whatever difference there is between the leagues already taken into account in the 3rd Order Win Percentage, which accounts for opponents? Second, how is the 20 point margin decided upon? It hasn't changed since the beginning of the season, and it is not transparently anything more than a crude adjustment. Third, shouldn't the 20 point margin be adjusted as a team plays more interleague games? If an AL team gets a 20 point bump for playing in the more difficult league, shouldn't that bump decrease as more of its results come against NL opponents? From the outside, the Adjusted Hit List Factor appears to be very imprecise. Thanks in advance for any explanation.
Why aren't the AHLF standings calculated as (current wins) + AHLF * (games remaining)? This seems more realistic than simply assuming that sufficient regression to AHLF will occur to make a team's final win total equal 162 * AHLF.
The current win totals for some teams are incorrect. For example, as of this morning, August 1, the Cubs and Cardinals were each 57-50, not 56-50. Other teams are also off. The Rays are 62-48. How are these data entered?
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Hit List Factor: it says that it's the average of four columns (actual, W1, W2, W3). Is that a mistake? If not, why is the O's number smaller than all four columns?