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Roundtable: 2009 Draft Coverage, Day Two

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday June 10, 2009 11:45 AM ET 2009 Draft Coverage, Day Two roundtable.


Jeff Pease (3:15:55 PM PT): Welcome to day two BP's coverage of the 2009 Draft. The roundtable starts at 11:45 AM ET on Wednesday, June 10, but you can leave questions for our authors before the roundtable begins. If you'd like to submit a question to be answered during the roundtable, you can do so here.

Kevin Goldstein (8:57:46 AM PT): Hi everyone -- we're here and getting rolling -- I have some radio to take care of but will be posting here as the picks get rolling in just a few minutes and also answering your questions.

Bryan Smith (8:59:58 AM PT): Hi, everyone. For liveblogging purposes, there's no question the slow and steady five minutes between picks is best for well-thought analysis. But I like the rapid-pick style of day two, it's old school for those of us that used to listen in on the annual conference call. I'm going to be here when I can today -- not on the couch with a bag of SunChips like yesterday, but I'll drop in with my favorite picks of the round as often as possible. If you haven't seen today's Unfiltered post, I listed five picks I hope to see today that I will really like. You can bet those won't be the only five, though this isn't the MLB Network, so we won't pretend to like every pick.

Kiley McDaniel (9:00:29 AM PT): Before the picks start, there's something important to address from yesterday's roundtable.

Jason (DC): Bryan, what happened to the five best Selig comments from yesterday?

I'm calling out Bryan along with Jason from DC. WE NEED THIS. Especially given the economy, or something.

Bryan Smith (9:03:26 AM PT): Kevin and I were dragging after round 3, and it completely slipped my mind. If I can get back into yesterday's queue, that's priority no. 1 for today!

Kevin Goldstein (9:10:08 AM PT): Brad (MO): Is max Stassi's asking price that high or are there other reasons why he is still undrafted? Is he asking for more or less than Wil Meyers and who is your favorite hs catcher this year?

KG: I hit the phones a bit after they stopped picking, and here's the story there. He wants around $1.5, so now that we're in the fourth round, he's a signability problem. It reminds me a lot of Tim Melville last year.

Kiley McDaniel (9:12:21 AM PT): Bryan, what's your opinion on Ole Miss OF Jordan Henry? I was told by a club type that he's a target for a few teams early on day 2. Also heard a Jason Tyner comp, so I wasn't sure what I was missing here.

Bryan Smith (9:14:14 AM PT): Jason, Kiley, readers, your Bud Selig comments!

Jon (SF): I have no idea how much Bud's suit cost, but don't you think he could fix his tie and not look so disheveled?

Frank (Vegas): Has anyone told Bud Selig that this event is being televised?

Will (Boston): Have you noticed Selig scowl everytime right after he says the next team is on the clock? What's the deal with that?

But my favorite two:

strupp (Madison): Do you think Stern and Goodell mock Bud to the point of tears about his draft announcing during Commissioner Getaways?

David (Sonoma State University, CA): I bet Bud Selig and Al Davis drink the same brand of scotch.

Kevin Goldstein (9:20:26 AM PT): The Padres are surprisingly the first team to take a signability guy in Keyvius Sampson, a projectable RHP and one of the better arms in Florida. He'll take more than 4th round money to sign, and the Padres continue to change their ways.

Bryan Smith (9:21:05 AM PT): Kiley, re Henry, he reminds me a bit of the Kyle Hudson pick last year. There is literally no hope that he's going to hit for power. But the on-base skills, both patience and contact, are excellent, and he's improved his baserunning quite a bit. I haven't got a grade on his CF defense, but I'm scared off a bit by the teamwide DER problem. I understand that doesn't single anybody out, but if I'm a scouting director, I would really do my due dilligence to check out the defensive grade.

There's better guys out there.

Kevin Goldstein (9:21:22 AM PT): Jason Stoffel (SF, #117) was SUPPOSED to be the best reliever in the draft this year and a first round pick. He just didn't light up scouts like he did last year, and fell mightily. He's still signable.

Kevin Goldstein (9:23:13 AM PT): Big Big picks at 122 and 123.

KC takes Chris Dwyer, a draft-eligible FRESHMAN with a great arm, and then Oakland finally nabs Stassi. If they're willing to pay him, that's highway robbery in the fourth.

Kiley McDaniel (9:23:56 AM PT): Stassi and Grant Green to OAK. Interesting. The real question is if we should we wait before posting the comments suggesting that going over-slot is the new black and Billy Beane has outsmarted us all again?

Kevin Goldstein (9:24:50 AM PT): Dodgers at 127 take Mario Songco, one of the better pure college hitters/performers, just not a big tools guy.

Kevin Goldstein (9:25:46 AM PT): Luke Bailey goes to Tampa at 139. He was a first round catcher, maybe the best backstop on the board until Tommy John surgery. If they're willing to pay him like he was healthy, it's a great find here.

Bryan Smith (9:25:52 AM PT): KG, this reminds me of the year the Athletics drafted and fell in love with Justin Smoak. Something tells me that, this time around, they get the deal done.

Kevin Goldstein (9:27:33 AM PT): Remember Austin Wood, who threw 14,932 pitches in that Texas/BC regional game? He goes to Detroit in the fifth.

Kevin Goldstein (9:28:13 AM PT): J.P. (Hartford): Just for the record, how exactly do you swing being a draft eligible freshman?

If you turn 21 before the draft, you're eligible.

Kiley McDaniel (9:28:28 AM PT): Agreed on Sampson, KG. Saw him this year and really like him. Welcome change of course for SD and great pick if they pay the man.

I like what the Rays are doing here, too. 4th rounder Luke Bailey was a consensus first round talent at catcher that slipped after a late-season injury. Good over-slot gamble there if the price is right. Love me some high school athletes.

Did anyone else's arm start hurting when the name Austin Wood was said on the conference call?

Bryan Smith (9:30:20 AM PT): One I'd like to mention is who started off the day, Kansas State's A.J. Morris. For most of the year, his numbers were in the Leake and Strasburg's arena. The strikeouts were down a little bit late in the year, but Morris has a rubber arm that led to five complete games. He's 88-91 with the fastball, and his slider is a solid pitch. Something tells me the Nats saw a few good change-ups in bullpens or games, and they think he's a durable three-pitch guy. But with just two pitches, he's not quite enough.

Kevin Goldstein (9:30:40 AM PT): drstupid8 (utah): Do you think that Trayce Thompson is likely to sign? If not was it a wasted pick?

It's certainly not a good pick if he doesn't sign! In all seriousness, I was surprised to see him go this high, not because of talent, but because of signability. I don't think they would have gone this high on him without knowing something we don't.

Kevin Goldstein (9:32:09 AM PT): Cardinals 5th-round pick Ryan Jackson also entered the year with some first-round potential, but he just didn't hit. He's one of the best defensive shortstops in the draft, but at this point, your best possible projection might be Adam Everett.

Kevin Goldstein (9:32:58 AM PT): The Mets select Damien Magnifico -- good lord I hope he gets to the majors, just for the headline possibilities at the New York Post.

Kevin Goldstein (9:34:57 AM PT): Another top 50 guy goes off the board with Nevada high school 1B Jeff Malm in the fifth round to Tampa Bay. A lot of bat, but that's definitely his only tool.

Kevin Goldstein (9:36:21 AM PT): Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): It's it pretty much throwing darts at a board trying to guess who teams are picking from here on out?

KG: Yes, you're pretty much in react mode only. I'm ticked about my Stassi comment, because I was going to say that the two most likely suitors would be Boston and Oakland.

Kevin Goldstein (9:37:47 AM PT): Stephen (Tucson): The Mariners went 6 picks without a single pitcher, and didn't draft one until Tyler Blandford in round 5. What should M's fans make of the pitching depth in their system? Was this a mistake?

KG: Lots of questions in this range -- don't think that way, teams are just taking the best player available.

Kevin Goldstein (9:39:23 AM PT): Nice nab in the 6th for the Tigers with shortstop Dan Fields, a local product who was expected to go much higher.

Some bloodlines there, but even better ones with Texas' pick as they take Ruben Sierra's kid!

Kevin Goldstein (9:39:58 AM PT): J.P. (Hartford): So, if Pittsburgh doesn't sign Sano, is this an Astros level failure?

After praising them all over for last year's draft, this one just has me confused.

Bryan Smith (9:40:15 AM PT): Scott Bittle in the fourth round to the Cards is really interesting. The Rebels had to shut him down this year with an arm injury, but in the weeks prior, he was as dominant as anyone in the nation. He has a nasty cutter that makes him hell on right-handers, and he's a senior: cheap sign. I like that pick, although I wonder if they could have got it off 1-2 rounds later.

Kevin Goldstein (9:40:59 AM PT): More bloodlines, as Toronto takes Chris Hobson, who is Butch's kid.

Kevin Goldstein (9:42:53 AM PT): George (Charlotte): How do you see Ackley, Tate and Turner's COMBINED money comparing to Strasburgs?

KG: Fun question. I but Strasburg ends up with around 5-8 million dollars more than those three combined.

Bryan Smith (9:43:24 AM PT): KG or Kiley: Sounds like the Mariners announced Long Island's James Jones as an outfielder. I had heard more about his fluid left arm, even though he had a down spring. Did more teams turn on him this year and switch to liking the CF possibilities more?

Kevin Goldstein (9:44:14 AM PT): Peter (Tampa): Out of 1-10, rate the chances the Rays can sign Bailey and Maim, please.

KG: Bailey is hard to nail down -- I'm don't have a good feel for his expectations. I think chances are solid they'll sign both, and excellent that they'll get at least one.

Kiley McDaniel (9:44:32 AM PT): J.P. (Hartford): So, if Pittsburgh doesn't sign Sano, is this an Astros level failure?

It won't matter if it is or isn't because the fans will think so...that's the danger in him being hyped so much locally.

But seriously people, show some trust and patience. I grew up as a Bucs/Rays/Lightning fan, things change eventually.

Kevin Goldstein (9:45:55 AM PT): Bryan -- Teams were split on Jones, he's a BETTER pitcher, but he offers more to dream on as an every day player.

Brooks Raley was still on the board? Good pick for Cubs.

Kevin Goldstein (9:46:47 AM PT): My favorite game on day two is to listen to who's making the picks and trying to see if I know that person.

Bryan Smith (9:46:59 AM PT): Cubs pop athletic Texas A&M pitcher/outfielder Brooks Raley with pick 200 in the 6th. Like much of their draft so far, I don't really like it at all. Raley fell apart horribly down the stretch, and he just isn't going to be worth the money he'll want as a sophomore to sign. I think Raley could benefit huge from another year of college, but something tells me the Cubs will do what needs to be done.

Kevin Goldstein (9:48:14 AM PT): benberg (San Diego): KG, anyone you haven't heard of get drafted yet?

KG: Oh god, absolutely. After 100 or so, there's tons of guys that I don't know very well.

Kiley McDaniel (9:48:49 AM PT): Swapped texts with a friend that is reading the picks on the conference call for his club.

Me: your voice sounds like you already cracked open the patron...congrats!

Them: I sound happy, I guess. We are feeling pretty good about things.

Got a similar text from a friend in another draft room. Fair to say every room is beaming right now. Kinda makes me feel happier just thinking about it.

Bryan Smith (9:49:46 AM PT): Favorite picks in Round 5:

Ryan Schimpf to the Blue Jays. They have some second base depth in their system, but Schimpf is a really good one. Sound defender that catches everything hit around him, and as a hitter, he doesn't have much in way of weaknesses.

Kyle Bellamy to the White Sox: Yeah, he's a middle reliever, but he's signable and he's death on right-handed hitters. I liked Drew O'Neil last year, though, so take that with a grain of salt.

Caleb Cotham to the Yankees: The first of my guys drafted on the day!

Kevin Goldstein (9:49:56 AM PT): J.P. (Hartford): Not a draft question, per se, but I should totally leave work early to hoof it to Norwich for the potential Alderson/Bumgarner double header tonight, yes?

KG: Dude, what are you waiting for? Start coughing and complaining about not feeling well NOW.

Kevin Goldstein (9:51:44 AM PT): Oakland's 7th round pick is Ian Kroll, who as local to me, I have familiarity with. He entered the year as the top player in Illinois, but he get suspended from his high-school team due to an alcohol related incident. He spent all spring pitching for a scout team up in Wisconsin, and was though to be best off going to college (Arizona) for three years, so I'm interested in seeing if he signs.

Bryan Smith (9:52:03 AM PT): Tigers pick a big Michigan commitment named Daniel Fields, from Detroit, in the sixth round. They played this game before with Zach Putnam, who ended up in school. Will be interesting to see if they let the promising young shortstop go to Ann Arbor.

Bryan Smith (9:55:10 AM PT): Nats announce on Twitter that they've signed Drew Storen. It was nice of them to pretend that a signable player wasn't a must at 10, but we never, ever believed it. Will be interesting to see if Storen will try his hand at starting again.

Kevin Goldstein (9:56:32 AM PT): jdmurphy (Chicago): How can they make their picks so quickly?

It's a lot of planning. At this point, you have your board and you cross guys off and in the end, you tend to say the name at the top. Meanwhile others are calling kids to make sure they'll sign and stuff.

Sean Black to the Yankees is of note in the seventh round. He was a second-round pick by the Nats out of high school, but his college years disappointed.

Phillies make a splash with Brody Colvin, a prep righty from Louisiana who is at least a second-round talent.

Bryan Smith (9:59:00 AM PT): The two Fullerton outfielders, Fellhauer and Khris Davis, go in the 7th round to the Reds and Brewers, respectively. Those are good picks. Dave Serrano is a fantastic baserunning coach, and those kids both can play defense. I like Davis better because of the power projection, but then again, Fellhauer will stay in center. Both good picks.

Kevin Goldstein (9:59:21 AM PT): Pittsburgh 8th round pick Billy Cain is a definite signability guy. Plus velocity from the left side and wants a lot of coin to buy him away from pitching and hitting at Texas.

Kiley McDaniel (10:04:52 AM PT): Two notes on 7th round picks:

PIT takes Trent Stevenson, an ultra-projectable (6'6, 175) Arizona prep righty that had a tough senior season with lower velo/command, but was up to 95 in the fall. He was also 5'10/125 as a HS frosh, so he's still getting used to his new body.

Madison Younginer is a projectable (6'3, 190) SC prep power arm that's been up to 97 and shown a plus hammer. There's a little funk in the arm, and little command to shore up, and he only threw 19 innings this fall because his HS team protected his arm as a reliever. That being said, I'd expect BOS to pull the trigger and pay the man some supplemental round money.

Bryan Smith (10:08:08 AM PT): Didn't think we'd be hearing Sam Elam's name in the top 10, a lefty from Notre Dame. Elam has a one of the better raw left-handed relief arms in the country, but it's been a long time since he's known where a ball is going. 29 walks in 31.1 innings this season, and he was worse over the summer. A Yankees scout must see something fixable, because if it gets straightened out, it's great stuff.

Kevin Goldstein (10:08:11 AM PT): Matt Hunter (Tallahassee): Kevin do you see the Padres getting Sampson signed?

KG: You need to keep in mind that when you see these signability picks, they're almost NEVER done blindly, there was almost definitely a phone call there to at least get a feel for the cash.

Kevin Goldstein (10:10:02 AM PT): Tripon (L.A.): Seems the Dodgers are hitting Puetro Rico pretty hard with their draft picks so far. Is there a perceived talent gap the Dodgers are exploiting?

KG: I wouldn't rule that out. Puerto Rico talent often does well on a talent vs. affordability level as well.

Kevin Goldstein (10:10:38 AM PT): erichsmith (SF, CA): What's the best place to find up-to-date picks?

MLB.com has a wonderful draft tracker with updated picks and audio of the conference call.

Bryan Smith (10:11:03 AM PT): I've dogged the Orioles draft a lot, but Ryan Berry in the ninth round is a great value pick. It wasn't long ago he was getting supplemental first talk, but a midseason injury derailed his momentum. He's got the best knuckle-curve in the draft, and good fastball command. There's a chance, I think, he returns to Rice for his senior season, but that's a nice risk from an organization that's been leaning cheap.

Kevin Goldstein (10:12:30 AM PT): Oakland takes Myrio Richard in the 9th round, and outfielder from Prarie View A&M, my favorite college program. His brother Michael, was a 10th round pick by Oakland two years ago out of the same school and currently the leadoff hitter at Stockton.

Bryan Smith (10:13:55 AM PT): Interviewed Michael in Kane County last year, KG, and if his brother is similar, I can tell you off-the-charts makeup was on the scouting report.

Bryan Smith (10:15:50 AM PT): If Wes Musick is healthy, and it would be amazing, that's a really nice pick for the Rockies in Round 9. This gives them three power lefties in this draft -- something tells me they think left-handed pitchers have a better chance to succeed in Coors Field. Friedrich, Matzek, Brothers, Musick ... not to mention, well, Hampton and Neagle.

Kevin Goldstein (10:16:11 AM PT): Let's keep taking about Richard brothers! Michael is a smallish guy with speed and a good eye at the plate, but his defense is poor and he's probably a utility guy at best. Myrio is bigger and an outfielder with more power.

Kiley McDaniel (10:16:12 AM PT): yanks2009 (DC): KG: What made Fuentes' workout before the draft "almost legendary"?

I didn't hear specifically about this workout but I've seen some pre-draft and July 2nd workouts, and that generally means

1. ran really fast (in field or in 60-yard)
2. threw really hard (in defensive drills)
3. made a lot of hard contact
4. hit a bunch of homers to impressive parts of the park in BP

That's why workouts are kinda the NFL combine of baseball, and why lots of teams insist on live scrimmages at a workouts, to even it out some.

Also, talked to more than one team that really wanted Fuentes right after the Red Sox took him. Good value there for Boston.

Kevin Goldstein (10:18:25 AM PT): He Fuentes showed 70-plus speed and surprised teams with his power -- not that he was a masher by any stretch, but he hit some balls out, and he was seen as really just a line drive bat coming in.

Bryan Smith (10:19:43 AM PT): I can't imagine Kendal Volz -- the fantastic closer on last summer's historic USA Baseball National team -- doesn't go back to Baylor for his senior season, but it's a nice move by the Red Sox to see if they can't talk him out of it. Volz was a mess this spring, with velocity down 3-5 mph, and the slider straightened out. Like Daniel Bard, the best thing for him might just be to throw him in the bullpen and let him throw his heart out.

Kiley McDaniel (10:19:57 AM PT): And the Rays drafted that fat guy from King of Queens. Interesting pick. Is Hollywood baseball talent a market inefficiency?

Kevin Goldstein (10:20:56 AM PT): Kendall Volz' tough, tough spring ends with the ninth-round pick to Boston. You do this draft six months ago, and he's a first round pick, but he showed almost nothing this spring.

Kiley McDaniel (10:22:16 AM PT): Remember talking to a cape scout about Gavin Brooks after his freshman year. Was sitting at 92-94 flashing a plus curve, looking like a sure 1st round pick. KG/Bryan: what happened since then?

Bryan Smith (10:22:51 AM PT): Why KG did Sam Dyson drop this far? Just picked up by the A's in the 10th.

Kevin Goldstein (10:23:05 AM PT): Oakland continues a very aggressive draft with Sam Dyson from South Carolina in the 10th, a big time arm looking for big time cash.

Kevin Goldstein (10:24:01 AM PT): Pete (St. Pete): Ackley kind of sounds like Vitters, only as a fast centerfielder. Would that comp be totally off base?

KG: They're really pretty different. Vitters has way more power, Ackley a much more refined approach.

Kiley McDaniel (10:25:45 AM PT): Brooks was the 9th round pick of the Yankees, forgot to mention that.

Could've fooled me: turns out it isn't the guy from King of Queens.

/Larry King impression


Bryan Smith (10:26:00 AM PT): Another of "my guys", Gonzaga catcher Tyson Van Winkle, goes in the 10th. I will take him over every college catcher drafted today except Trevor Coleman. Good pick, Arizona.

Bryan Smith (10:27:50 AM PT): Keep an eye out for Twins 10th rounder, LSU's Blake Dean. He has the smoothest left-handed swing in the draft, and while he probably can't be more than David Delucci, it's an upside I wouldn't be surprised to see him reach.

Kiley McDaniel (10:28:59 AM PT): Glad you called Van Winkle one of "my guys," Bryan. If you called him a sleeper, we would've suspended you from chatting for 5 minutes. I'm going in the penalty box for the Kevin James comments now.

Bryan Smith (10:31:13 AM PT): Remember when Dennis Dixon almost won the Heisman Trophy, but was then playing summer ball with the Atlanta Braves? The Angels are going for a similar thing by drafting University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker. Like Dixon, he hasn't played baseball since high school, but with an up and down college career, the Angels are going to see if they can't get him to give up football.

Kiley McDaniel (10:35:34 AM PT): Those of you who saw there was no video for Jake Locker on MLB.com, here's the highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKjRkPxK-F0

I don't know what the scale is for grading an arm when they're throwing a football.

Bryan Smith (10:39:57 AM PT): Kiley: you just write 70 and move on.

Kevin Goldstein (10:40:36 AM PT): Hey guys, in the middle of back to back radio, but will return soon.

Bryan Smith (10:48:20 AM PT): A lot of small school first baseman have gone in this draft, but the power grades I got from Oklahoma's Aaron Baker, to the Pirates in the 11th, were always better. Baker is a big boy that doesn't play much defense, but in the Cape, he always took an impressive batting practice. There's work to be done with hitting coaches, but there's a solid starting point with that raw power.

Kiley McDaniel (10:51:36 AM PT): I'll admit I don't know a lot of these names, but Oakland lusting after another 3B from U. Cincinnati (Youkilis famously being the first) and then the next pick is a guy from Chattahoochee Valley CC...that's some good stuff. Still ahead of Scrubs re-runs for me.

Twins pick Ronnie Richardson is a HS talent local to me (central Florida) that is probably a speed CF in the end and has a wide base of skills with many scouts thinking he would go in the top 3 rounds if he wasn't 5'7. He's also a commit to my alma-mater, UCF, so I selfishly hope he ends up there.

Kevin Goldstein (10:59:59 AM PT): Hi folks -- we're going to call this at 2pm ET (five minutes from now), as pick get more and more obscure. I will be chatting tomorrow and writing some wraps, so we're hardly done with this thing.

Kevin Goldstein (11:05:02 AM PT): Detroit takes a centerfielder named Michael Rocket -- how cool is that?

Kevin Goldstein (11:05:49 AM PT): Ok, folks -- we're gonna call it -- we'll keep listening and you'll get tons of draft content for the rest of the week. See you at the chat tommorow.

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