Baseball Prospectus 1996
The most obvious loss is that of manager Davey Johnson. Forced to work last year knowing he would be replaced at season's end by "assistant manager" Ray Knight, Johnson did an excellent job in guiding the Reds to a divisional title. Johnson's strengths were the same as they were in his Met days: he coaxed strong performances out of the entire roster, building the best bench in the league. He worked a deep bullpen flawlessly, and he avoided excessive use of little ball strategies, electing instead to let his power core produce runs.
That power core is another area from which the Reds lost this winter. Jim Bowden's shrewd signing of Ron Gant, who missed all of 1994 recovering from a broken leg, paid off handsomely as the healed Gant hit .276 with 29 homers, many of them dramatic. However, Gant's salary demands were too high for Cincinnati, and the left fielder signed a five-year, $25 million deal with St. Louis. While Schott's penurious ways have hurt the team's image, this is one case in which she made the right decision. St. Louis overpaid for Gant, who is unlikely to match his 1995 numbers.
Johnson's carefully crafted bench and bullpen also took some hits this winter. Jerome Walton, who came back from the dead to be one of the best fourth outfielders in the league, left for Atlanta; Mark Lewis, who came off the scrap heap to hit .339, was the player later named in the David Wells deal; Mariano Duncan, an execrable regular but useful fifth infielder, left as a free agent for the Yankees; and Mike Jackson, one of the most consistent middle relievers in baseball, bolted Cincinnati for Seattle.
In an effort to trim the payroll further, David Wells was gift-wrapped and sent to Baltimore for a used Slinky, some raspberry Hubba Bubba and a Hardee's gift certificate. While Jim Bowden professed to be done making moves, the surprising health of Jose Rijo, and the fact that if he pitches, his salary will not be covered by the Reds' insurance policy on him, will likely force a trade of John Smiley, who is highly coveted, or Mark Portugal, who is carbon-based.
The Reds' talent level has slipped coming into 1996, and may erode further as the dog lady meanders deeper into her dementia. New manager Ray Knight hasn't shown the ability to evaluate baseball players on anything but their apparent level of effort, a dangerous tool, and looks for all the world to be the second coming of Doug Rader. Unless Nancy demands the return of her personal caddy, or the owner is put out of our misery by canine intervention, the mid-'90s heyday of the Reds is over.
ERIC ANTHONY 1968 RF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 TUC 307 89 12 1 7 17 9 4 .290 .327 .404 .260 80 38 1991 HOU 120 21 6 0 1 12 1 0 .175 .250 .250 .167 20 6 1992 HOU 449 120 14 1 24 42 6 4 .267 .330 .463 .273 122 65 1993 HOU 488 125 18 3 14 50 3 5 .256 .325 .391 .250 122 57 1994 SEA 259 60 12 1 8 20 7 2 .232 .287 .378 .235 61 27 1995 IND 24 7 0 0 3 6 2 0 .292 .433 .667 .365 9 7 1995 CIN 134 37 4 0 5 13 2 1 .276 .340 .418 .266 36 18 1996 PRJ 414 111 15 2 17 36 4 2 .268 .327 .437 .266 110 56A never-was, now tooling around in the first stages of a Mike Aldrete career. Good bench player, can play RF, pinch-hit, pinch-run, fill in for two weeks without killing you. Will be around for a while, may contribute to some pennant-winners. Will never see 400 ABs again.
TIM BELK 1970 1B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1993 WNS 507 124 10 1 8 37 6 4 .245 .296 .316 .216 110 42 1994 CHT 420 121 22 2 9 52 10 5 .288 .367 .414 .276 116 61 1995 IND 192 54 5 0 4 15 3 5 .281 .333 .370 .245 47 21Right-handed first baseman in the Mark Grace mold. Injured this year, and with Hal Morris re-signed for two years, may have some difficulty getting to Cincinnati.
DAMON BERRYHILL 1964 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 IOW 97 31 4 1 6 10 1 2 .320 .383 .567 .314 30 19 1991 CHC 160 32 7 0 5 11 1 2 .200 .251 .338 .200 32 12 1992 ATL 310 77 13 1 13 19 0 2 .248 .292 .423 .245 76 35 1993 ATL 335 83 16 2 7 22 0 0 .248 .294 .370 .233 78 33 1994 BOS 252 66 15 2 4 16 0 1 .262 .306 .385 .241 61 27 1995 CIN 82 15 3 0 2 10 0 0 .183 .272 .293 .193 16 5Not a bad backup catcher. Switch-hits with some extra-base power, walks occasionally, doesn't kill you behind the plate. Out for the season with elbow surgery. 50-50 that he ever plays another major league game.
BRET BOONE 1969 2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 JAX 489 118 10 1 17 57 8 6 .241 .321 .370 .243 119 55 1992 CLG 421 113 15 2 12 47 13 8 .268 .342 .399 .261 110 55 1992 SEA 129 26 5 0 4 4 1 1 .202 .226 .333 .189 24 8 1993 CLG 261 71 8 1 6 22 3 5 .272 .329 .379 .247 64 30 1993 SEA 271 71 10 2 12 15 3 3 .262 .301 .446 .257 70 34 1994 CIN 379 124 21 2 10 24 4 4 .327 .367 .472 .291 110 59 1995 CIN 514 142 29 2 14 40 5 1 .276 .329 .422 .264 136 67 1996 PRJ 527 153 32 2 20 41 6 5 .290 .342 .472 .281 148 79Final numbers look bad because he struggled in the last two months, but that was the inevitable fatigue factor: he was playing his first full season, and got almost no time off in the first half. Second-best second baseman in the league, behind Biggio, and could have some years where he's the best. Vlad looks dead on.
JEFF BRANSON 1967 3B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CHT 311 74 12 2 2 23 3 4 .238 .290 .309 .209 65 24 1991 NAS 146 33 3 1 0 5 5 3 .226 .252 .260 .178 26 8 1992 NAS 122 38 5 2 3 8 1 2 .311 .354 .459 .280 34 18 1992 CIN 117 37 6 1 1 5 0 1 .316 .344 .410 .265 31 15 1993 CIN 381 93 14 1 2 20 4 1 .244 .282 .302 .207 79 28 1994 CIN 108 31 5 1 5 6 0 0 .287 .325 .491 .280 30 16 1995 CIN 332 89 16 2 11 43 2 1 .268 .352 .428 .273 91 47 1996 PRJ 368 99 17 1 9 33 2 1 .269 .329 .394 .256 94 45Surprising year as half of a fantastic third base platoon with now-departed Mark Lewis. Really a good utility infielder in disguise, and not as good as the guy he's in front of, Willie Greene. Goes into spring training as the platoon starter. Kind of like Jim Gantner: he won't hurt you, but he won't help you, either.
JERRY BROOKS 1967 C-OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 ABQ 413 100 10 2 11 20 3 2 .242 .277 .356 .222 91 36 1992 ABQ 456 106 17 1 14 29 3 1 .232 .278 .366 .225 103 42 1993 ABQ 394 105 14 2 7 15 2 2 .266 .293 .365 .232 91 38 1994 ABQ 371 100 11 1 10 26 4 1 .270 .317 .385 .249 92 42 1995 IND 323 87 13 2 11 21 4 1 .269 .314 .424 .259 84 40
ADAM BROWN 1967 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 VRO 189 50 5 1 6 19 1 1 .265 .332 .397 .256 48 23 1991 SAN 37 9 0 0 1 1 0 0 .243 .263 .324 .205 8 3 1992 SAN 77 16 1 0 2 3 0 0 .208 .237 .299 .181 14 4 1993 DAY 109 26 2 0 4 11 0 0 .239 .308 .367 .237 26 11 1994 ORL 29 9 1 0 0 2 0 0 .310 .355 .345 .253 7 3 1994 IOW 132 31 5 1 4 5 0 0 .235 .263 .379 .223 29 12 1995 CHT 235 59 8 2 4 21 0 1 .251 .312 .353 .234 55 23
WILLIE CANATE 1972 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CGA 209 41 5 1 3 15 6 3 .196 .250 .273 .181 38 12 1991 KIN 193 35 2 1 1 8 2 1 .181 .214 .218 .126 24 4 1992 CGA 537 140 22 3 5 37 12 4 .261 .308 .341 .233 125 53 1993 KNX 37 9 0 0 1 4 2 1 .243 .317 .324 .232 9 4 1993 TOR 47 11 0 0 1 5 1 1 .234 .308 .298 .213 10 4 1994 KNX 328 71 6 1 1 20 11 4 .216 .261 .250 .180 59 18 1994 SYR 153 25 4 0 0 6 1 1 .163 .195 .190 .075 12 1 1995 SYR 346 77 12 1 3 21 8 4 .223 .267 .289 .195 68 23Another guy killed by having to waste a year of his life sitting on a bench after being picked in the Rule V draft. It's a great concept, but how much does it help a young player to get 84 ABs when he's 21? Still just 24, and could bounce back, but he hasn't developed any power in his early twenties, a very bad sign.
ERIC DAVIS 1962 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CIN 288 71 9 1 11 48 13 2 .247 .354 .399 .271 78 42 1992 LAD 273 71 8 1 7 39 20 1 .260 .353 .374 .271 74 39 1993 DET 74 19 1 1 6 14 3 2 .257 .375 .541 .303 22 14 1993 LAD 378 91 13 1 13 41 36 5 .241 .315 .384 .260 98 50 1994 DET 119 22 4 0 2 16 6 0 .185 .281 .269 .204 24 9I presume this means he's forgiven Marge Schott for making him pay for his own flight after the injury in the 1990 World Series? If healthy, probably not a bad fourth outfielder, but if he's a regular he'll bomb. Fun player to watch, or at least he was. Fantastic base stealing technique.
JAMIE DISMUKE 1970 1B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CDR 506 110 14 1 8 30 2 1 .217 .261 .296 .192 97 32 1992 CWV 492 122 9 1 12 47 2 2 .248 .314 .343 .232 114 48 1993 CHT 494 134 10 1 15 38 3 1 .271 .323 .387 .251 124 57 1994 IND 389 101 11 1 11 44 1 0 .260 .335 .378 .253 98 46 1995 CHT 351 96 9 1 14 38 0 0 .274 .344 .425 .269 95 48 1995 IND 36 8 1 0 0 3 0 0 .222 .282 .250 .183 7 2Wouldn't make a bad platoon with Tim Belk, as long as they stayed in AAA. Walk rates are good, some pop, but at first base these guys are a dime a dozen. No prospect.
BRIAN DORSETT 1961 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 BUF 104 28 2 0 3 6 0 0 .269 .309 .375 .242 25 11 1991 LVG 207 54 6 1 9 12 0 0 .261 .301 .430 .254 53 25 1992 BUF 493 141 20 1 19 34 1 0 .286 .332 .446 .271 134 68 1993 IND 274 79 16 1 14 26 2 0 .288 .350 .507 .294 81 46 1993 CIN 63 16 4 0 2 3 0 0 .254 .288 .413 .244 15 7 1994 CIN 215 54 4 0 5 21 0 0 .251 .318 .340 .233 50 21 1995 IND 312 79 17 1 13 23 1 1 .253 .304 .439 .256 80 39
BROOK FORDYCE 1970 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 SLU 419 95 12 1 9 27 2 3 .227 .274 .325 .207 87 32 1992 BIN 433 114 14 1 12 30 1 1 .263 .311 .383 .244 106 47 1993 NOR 413 103 16 1 1 24 2 2 .249 .291 .300 .208 86 31 1994 NOR 233 61 8 2 3 16 1 0 .262 .309 .352 .235 55 23 1995 BUF 177 43 7 0 1 14 1 0 .243 .298 .299 .213 38 14Mets' catcher of the future a few years back, but his hitting never came around. Extended future as a AAA catcher, for all you American Association Rotisserie players.
STEVE GIBRALTER 1973 CF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CWV 556 121 19 3 5 13 5 6 .218 .236 .290 .176 98 29 1992 CDR 543 143 13 1 14 32 7 5 .263 .304 .368 .237 129 56 1993 CHT 475 97 15 2 8 15 7 7 .204 .229 .295 .175 83 25 1994 CHT 467 117 18 1 12 41 8 5 .251 .311 .370 .240 112 50 1995 IND 261 80 14 2 14 24 0 2 .307 .365 .536 .303 79 46 1996 PRJ 544 146 20 2 19 31 2 2 .268 .308 .417 .253 138 65Best candidate for the Reds' CF spot, but will probably lose out to the stiff below. Gibralter doesn't look like a center fielder the way Goodwin does, but he can play the position, and showed excellent power last year. Just 23, this is an important year: does he improve, regress or stagnate? Bet on improvement.
CURTIS GOODWIN 1973 CF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1992 KNE 552 126 4 3 2 22 24 10 .228 .258 .257 .183 101 31 1993 FRD 561 130 9 5 1 41 37 10 .232 .284 .271 .207 116 43 1994 BOW 597 150 12 5 1 30 41 8 .251 .287 .293 .219 131 51 1995 ROC 139 32 2 2 0 11 13 2 .230 .287 .273 .217 30 12 1995 BAL 287 76 7 2 1 12 29 5 .265 .294 .314 .235 67 29Pinch-runner masquerading as a baseball player. Stealing bases is the only thing he does well, although if he got 3000 at bats he might pull a Lance Johnson on us. Ray Knight's decision on his center fielder will tell us a lot about how good a manager he will be. I'm betting on Goodwin to win the job, hit .270/.310/.330 with 50 steals, and the media to harp on Reggie Sanders for not driving in runs. Will start the year at AAA.
KEITH GORDON 1969 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CWV 402 91 8 4 6 31 11 5 .226 .282 .311 .211 85 32 1992 CDR 387 84 8 1 9 28 11 6 .217 .270 .313 .205 79 29 1993 CHT 415 105 16 1 10 15 12 10 .253 .279 .369 .226 94 39 1994 CHT 257 66 9 1 7 19 8 4 .257 .308 .381 .244 63 29 1994 IND 58 12 2 0 0 3 0 0 .207 .246 .241 .158 9 2 1995 IND 263 65 8 1 5 15 4 4 .247 .288 .342 .220 58 23
WILLIE GREENE 1972 3B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 WPB 338 74 4 1 13 40 6 4 .219 .302 .352 .229 77 34 1992 CDR 124 33 4 1 7 13 2 3 .266 .336 .484 .275 34 19 1992 CHT 355 93 13 1 12 41 8 5 .262 .338 .406 .261 93 46 1992 CIN 95 28 4 2 3 10 0 2 .295 .362 .474 .282 27 15 1993 IND 337 86 12 1 16 47 3 4 .255 .346 .439 .270 91 48 1993 CIN 50 8 1 1 2 2 0 0 .160 .192 .340 .174 9 3 1994 IND 433 121 15 1 19 51 8 3 .279 .355 .450 .281 122 66 1994 CIN 37 8 2 0 0 6 0 0 .216 .326 .270 .212 8 3 1995 IND 324 76 9 2 14 36 4 3 .235 .311 .404 .248 80 39 1996 PRJ 577 148 19 1 26 65 2 3 .256 .332 .428 .264 152 77Slipped a notch last year, but I can't imagine being passed over for the third year in a row despite being the organization's best player at your position does much for your motivation. With Branson, Reese and Owens in the picture, Greene really needs a new organization, and fast. An All-Star waiting in the wings.
BILLY HALL 1969 2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CSC 287 70 4 2 2 20 10 4 .244 .293 .293 .211 61 23 1992 HDS 475 126 16 3 1 29 22 11 .265 .308 .318 .227 108 44 1993 WIC 490 116 17 4 3 32 22 10 .237 .284 .306 .212 104 40 1994 WIC 111 36 2 1 1 9 8 3 .324 .375 .387 .279 31 16 1994 LVG 268 55 7 2 1 27 20 5 .205 .278 .257 .201 54 20 1995 LVG 242 43 0 1 1 18 19 4 .178 .235 .198 .157 38 10Those extra-base hit numbers are not typos, folks. Makes Marquis Riley look like Rob Deer.
LENNY HARRIS 1965 UTIL YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 LAD 437 134 15 1 4 37 11 3 .307 .361 .373 .267 116 56 1992 LAD 355 108 9 1 1 26 21 7 .304 .352 .344 .257 91 43 1993 LAD 161 39 5 1 2 15 3 1 .242 .307 .323 .226 36 15 1994 CIN 99 31 1 1 0 6 8 2 .313 .352 .343 .262 26 12 1995 CIN 197 42 8 3 1 14 10 1 .213 .265 .299 .208 41 15Good utility infielder; adds value in being one of the few guys in that role who also is a good left-handed pinch-hitter. Last year's performance is probably meaningless. No chance to step up to a bigger role, but can stay in his current one for 6-8 years.
THOMAS HOWARD 1965 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 LVG 90 22 1 0 2 8 8 3 .244 .306 .322 .233 21 9 1991 SDP 286 77 14 3 4 24 10 6 .269 .326 .381 .250 72 34 1992 CLE 357 100 15 2 2 16 16 7 .280 .311 .350 .239 85 37 1993 CIN 141 40 8 3 3 12 6 6 .284 .340 .447 .267 38 20 1993 CLE 179 45 4 0 4 11 6 1 .251 .295 .341 .231 41 17 1994 CIN 177 48 8 0 5 10 5 2 .271 .310 .401 .252 45 21 1995 CIN 281 87 14 2 2 20 18 8 .310 .355 .395 .270 76 38 1996 PRJ 302 83 12 1 4 22 16 8 .275 .324 .361 .247 75 34In addition to having very good front-line talent, the Reds had perhaps the best bench and bullpen in baseball. Howard is a switch-hitter, can play all three OF positions, run a little, and won't embarrass you if he plays for a week. Like Harris, has no business being a regular, but a strong asset off the bench.
BRIAN H. HUNTER 1968 1B-OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 RIC 181 45 3 0 9 7 3 2 .249 .277 .414 .240 43 19 1991 ATL 272 70 15 1 12 16 0 2 .257 .299 .452 .256 70 34 1992 ATL 241 63 11 2 17 23 1 2 .261 .326 .535 .286 69 40 1993 RIC 100 24 6 0 4 9 4 2 .240 .303 .420 .252 25 12 1993 ATL 80 11 3 1 0 2 0 0 .138 .159 .200 **** -4 0 1994 PIT 232 54 14 1 10 15 0 0 .233 .279 .431 .244 57 26 1995 IND 36 13 4 0 3 5 0 1 .361 .439 .722 .362 13 9 1995 CIN 79 18 4 0 1 11 2 1 .228 .322 .316 .229 18 8 1996 PRJ 152 38 5 1 8 12 0 0 .250 .305 .454 .261 40 20I guess he's not going to have the .270/.330/.540 year I thought he had in him. No defensive value, not a good hitter for average, but has hit for power whenever he's gotten some playing time. Now with Seattle.
ADAM HYZDU 1972 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CLN 425 83 8 2 5 42 2 3 .195 .268 .259 .177 75 23 1992 SJO 457 108 13 2 8 32 5 2 .236 .286 .326 .216 99 38 1993 SJO 161 60 5 1 9 18 1 1 .373 .436 .584 .346 56 36 1993 SHV 305 56 8 0 5 17 1 3 .184 .227 .259 .153 47 12 1994 WNS 210 51 7 1 7 13 1 3 .243 .287 .386 .231 49 21 1994 CHT 134 33 4 0 3 7 0 1 .246 .284 .343 .218 29 11 1995 CHT 317 79 9 1 10 38 3 1 .249 .330 .379 .251 79 38Continues to show slight improvement, but needs a breakout year to be a factor at the major league level. Reggie Sanders is the only Reds outfielder with an established job, so a few good weeks at AAA could vault Hyzdu to Riverfront right quick. I don't think he has it in him.
MIKE KELLY 1970 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 DUR 127 28 2 1 4 13 4 1 .220 .293 .346 .228 29 12 1992 GRN 481 108 11 2 21 58 19 7 .225 .308 .387 .246 118 57 1993 RIC 426 99 8 1 14 32 11 5 .232 .286 .354 .226 96 40 1994 RIC 315 79 9 2 12 27 9 5 .251 .310 .406 .251 79 38 1994 ATL 77 22 8 1 2 2 0 1 .286 .304 .494 .269 21 10 1995 RIC 46 13 0 0 2 5 0 1 .283 .353 .413 .263 12 6 1995 ATL 137 26 5 1 3 10 7 3 .190 .245 .307 .195 27 10Given away by the Braves, who tired of the obscene strikeout rates and alarming lack of improvement. In the Reds' outfield mix with the entire cast of "A Chorus Line." His string spring means he'll have at least a part-time job.
JOE KMAK 1963 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 DEN 292 62 13 1 1 21 6 2 .212 .265 .274 .189 55 18 1992 DEN 219 60 8 3 2 16 5 2 .274 .323 .365 .247 54 24 1993 NWO 76 23 2 1 1 8 1 0 .303 .369 .395 .275 21 11 1993 MIL 110 25 4 0 0 13 7 2 .227 .309 .264 .214 24 9 1994 NOR 269 66 2 0 4 27 2 2 .245 .314 .297 .217 58 23 1995 IOW 98 17 3 0 1 6 0 0 .173 .221 .235 .137 13 3 1995 CHC 53 13 3 0 1 6 0 0 .245 .322 .358 .240 13 6
FRANK KREMBLAS 1967 2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CHT 327 72 8 1 4 21 3 3 .220 .267 .287 .191 63 21 1992 CHT 284 59 9 1 1 16 4 3 .208 .250 .257 .170 48 14 1993 IND 338 77 9 3 6 39 8 4 .228 .308 .325 .225 76 32 1994 CHT 145 34 2 1 1 7 5 2 .234 .270 .283 .197 29 10 1994 IND 149 34 7 1 1 9 2 2 .228 .272 .309 .202 30 11 1995 CHT 68 9 1 0 1 6 1 1 .132 .203 .191 .089 6 1 1995 IND 75 11 1 0 0 11 5 2 .147 .256 .160 .140 10 2
CLEVELAND LADELL 1971 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1992 CWV 31 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 .161 .212 .194 .121 4 1 1993 WNS 525 122 7 3 11 12 16 5 .232 .250 .320 .203 106 38 1994 WNS 284 61 5 1 7 19 12 5 .215 .264 .313 .206 58 22 1994 CHT 99 15 1 1 1 4 3 1 .152 .184 .212 .108 11 2 1995 CHT 521 141 20 5 4 32 23 10 .271 .313 .351 .240 125 55Obviously in the wrong Ohio organization. Little chance of actually playing for either, since the improvment is most likely a fluke.
BARRY LARKIN 1964 SS YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CIN 469 147 27 3 21 55 22 5 .313 .385 .518 .313 147 90 1992 CIN 544 179 34 5 16 68 15 4 .329 .404 .498 .315 171 103 1993 CIN 386 123 18 3 7 50 14 1 .319 .397 .435 .300 116 65 1994 CIN 425 120 19 4 8 64 29 2 .282 .376 .402 .287 122 68 1995 CIN 497 164 27 5 13 60 53 6 .330 .402 .483 .321 159 99 1996 PRJ 534 168 25 6 17 63 46 5 .315 .387 .479 .313 167 101The best player in baseball. It looks like the fragility which had haunted him is a thing of the past, removing the primary obstacle to his attaining the crown. Bonds may take the title back this year, but the positional difference and obscene stolen base percentages are enough to swing this debate in Larkin's favor. Needs a few more seasons around this level for Hall of Fame consideration, and I don't think he can get there.
ROBERTO MEJIA 1972 2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1992 VRO 337 73 7 1 10 32 10 6 .217 .285 .332 .217 73 30 1993 CSP 278 67 6 1 9 13 9 3 .241 .275 .367 .228 63 27 1993 COL 224 47 10 3 5 14 4 1 .210 .256 .348 .212 47 18 1994 CSP 269 60 12 1 4 17 6 3 .223 .269 .320 .207 56 21 1994 COL 114 26 7 1 3 14 3 1 .228 .312 .386 .246 28 13 1995 CSP 137 33 6 1 2 6 0 2 .241 .273 .343 .210 29 11 1995 COL 51 7 0 0 1 0 0 1 .137 .137 .196 **** -5 -1Just 24, but he's stuck behind Boone now. I expect a Mark Lewis-like return in 1997, when he gets his next opportunity. Still has some star potential.
KEITH MITCHELL 1970 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 GRN 219 68 8 1 10 23 10 6 .311 .376 .493 .298 65 38 1991 RIC 94 29 5 1 1 7 0 1 .309 .356 .415 .270 25 12 1991 ATL 66 21 0 0 2 8 3 1 .318 .392 .409 .289 19 10 1992 RIC 409 87 12 1 4 59 13 7 .213 .312 .276 .211 86 34 1993 RIC 356 78 14 1 3 39 9 4 .219 .296 .289 .209 74 28 1994 CLG 38 9 1 0 2 1 0 0 .237 .256 .421 .233 9 4 1994 SEA 126 28 1 0 4 16 0 0 .222 .310 .325 .224 28 12 1995 IND 213 50 8 2 8 38 5 4 .235 .351 .404 .262 56 29 1996 PRJ 320 83 11 2 15 44 6 5 .259 .349 .447 .275 88 48Sometimes it feels like Jim Bowden and Dan Duquette have 60-man rosters, the way they just pick up random guys who used to be prospects and hang on to them for a while. Mitchell could have been a heck of a hitter, but stagnated in Richmond while the Braves played Lonnie Smith in left field.
HAL MORRIS 1965 1B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CIN 483 159 27 1 16 46 10 3 .329 .388 .489 .306 148 85 1992 CIN 402 118 22 3 8 48 7 6 .294 .369 .423 .278 112 59 1993 CIN 380 122 11 1 7 34 2 2 .321 .377 .411 .280 106 54 1994 CIN 434 148 25 3 9 34 7 2 .341 .389 .475 .304 132 73 1995 CIN 359 103 22 2 10 29 1 1 .287 .340 .443 .273 98 50 1996 PRJ 577 190 28 0 14 38 2 1 .329 .371 .451 .290 167 88Mark Grace without the good looks and 30 walks. He's a nice little hitter, but if he doesn't hit .320 he's not helping you, and he doesn't hit .320 every year. Now 31, I don't expect him to reach the Vlad projection. Will be an excellent pinch-hitter/part-time starter in a few years.
CHAD MOTTOLA 1972 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1993 WNS 494 113 11 1 12 48 9 4 .229 .297 .328 .222 109 45 1994 CHT 406 88 11 1 6 27 7 7 .217 .266 .293 .192 78 26 1995 CHT 182 51 7 1 8 11 1 1 .280 .321 .462 .270 49 25 1995 IND 238 58 8 1 6 19 9 1 .244 .300 .361 .239 57 25Scouts love the tools, but it appears that Chad is going to lose the battle with the strike zone which separates major leaguers from minor leaguers.
ERIC OWENS 1971 2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1993 WNS 488 104 10 2 6 41 13 7 .213 .274 .279 .194 95 33 1994 CHT 531 123 11 2 3 47 25 8 .232 .294 .277 .209 111 42 1995 IND 425 125 17 6 9 49 39 12 .294 .367 .426 .286 121 68 1996 PRJ 432 118 19 8 10 42 46 11 .273 .338 .424 .278 120 66Owens is in a bad spot, with Boone ahead of him and Pokey Reese, who will have to move off of SS, behind him. Picked up some power last year, improved his walk rate, stolen base percentage and defense; the across-the-board improvement you like to see in a prospect, He is 25, though, and has more value as trade bait than as a player to the Reds.
CALVIN (Pokey) REESE 1973 SS YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1992 CWV 388 89 12 1 5 15 9 4 .229 .258 .304 .198 77 26 1993 CHT 345 63 10 2 3 18 6 3 .183 .223 .249 .153 53 13 1994 CHT 490 123 13 2 11 38 14 3 .251 .305 .353 .237 116 51 1995 IND 342 77 13 1 8 34 10 5 .225 .295 .339 .225 77 32 1996 PRJ 422 105 19 3 10 45 16 3 .249 .321 .379 .253 107 51In addition to having a good mix of offensive skills, Reese is a good defensive shortstop. However, Barry Larkin's six-year deal means he'll have to find a new position or new organization. We'll know by April whether his future is in Cincinnati or not by what the Reds do with him in spring training. A new position is likely.
TOBY RUMFIELD 1973 1B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1993 CWV 341 64 8 1 4 15 3 2 .188 .222 .252 .151 52 12 1994 WNS 464 101 7 2 15 36 2 2 .218 .274 .338 .212 99 38 1995 CHT 276 68 8 1 6 22 0 2 .246 .302 .348 .227 63 26In line to succeed Morris when the incumbent's two-year contract is up, but will need to improve dramatically to have a shot. Look for the typical second-year-at-AA effect in 1996, but real development is necessary for a career.
CHRIS SABO 1962 3B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CIN 587 183 32 3 27 44 18 5 .312 .360 .514 .301 177 102 1992 CIN 349 93 19 3 15 32 4 5 .266 .328 .467 .271 95 50 1993 CIN 552 145 27 2 20 44 7 4 .263 .317 .428 .259 143 70 1994 BAL 254 64 14 3 8 17 1 1 .252 .299 .425 .251 64 30 1995 STP 41 9 1 0 1 8 1 0 .220 .347 .317 .243 10 5 1995 CWS 71 19 4 0 1 2 3 0 .268 .288 .366 .240 17 7It had to be an intern in the PR department who decided to bring back the desiccated remains of Chris Sabo, right? Jim Bowden couldn't have been this stupid.
REGGIE SANDERS 1968 RF/CF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CHT 310 94 10 4 9 32 11 2 .303 .368 .448 .290 90 49 1991 CIN 40 8 1 0 1 0 1 1 .200 .200 .300 .165 7 2 1992 CIN 392 115 27 5 16 51 17 6 .293 .375 .510 .303 119 72 1993 CIN 497 138 13 3 19 51 29 10 .278 .345 .431 .275 137 73 1994 CIN 398 107 19 7 15 41 25 10 .269 .337 .465 .279 111 62 1995 CIN 485 154 32 6 26 68 38 13 .318 .401 .569 .327 159 106 1996 PRJ 568 165 27 7 33 79 36 15 .290 .377 .537 .310 176 112After having essentially the same season for three years, Sanders bumped his game up two nothces across the board. Savvy readers will note his age. This is more likely to real development than a fluke however, and Sanders should continue to play at this level for a few years. The Vlad looks dead on. Very good right fielder.
RUBEN SANTANA 1970 3B/2B YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 SBR 392 95 9 2 3 9 15 6 .242 .259 .298 .200 78 27 1992 PEN 406 101 10 2 5 15 12 9 .249 .276 .320 .210 85 32 1993 JAX 499 137 11 1 16 30 10 5 .275 .316 .397 .252 126 58 1994 JAX 501 131 17 2 6 26 7 4 .261 .298 .339 .226 113 46 1995 CHT 561 154 17 6 9 42 2 3 .275 .325 .374 .247 139 62Absolutely never mentioned as a prospect despite some decent years, including a good 1993 as a 23-year-old, at AA. In the wrong organization, with Boone, Reese, Owens and Greene all shooting for playing time at his positions. Will probably never see The Show.
BENITO SANTIAGO 1965 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 SDP 589 169 23 3 18 24 8 9 .287 .315 .428 .257 152 72 1992 SDP 388 103 15 1 13 24 3 5 .265 .308 .410 .248 96 45 1993 FLA 468 108 18 4 12 37 11 7 .231 .287 .363 .228 107 45 1994 FLA 331 88 11 2 9 25 1 2 .266 .317 .393 .248 82 38 1995 CIN 266 79 15 1 10 24 2 2 .297 .355 .474 .286 76 41 1996 PRJ 361 97 16 1 13 33 3 4 .269 .330 .427 .263 95 47Career looked over before he became an important part of a division winner, having the best year of his life in the process. Walk rate was, for him, outstanding, and his doubles power, missing for years, returned. Signed with Philadelphia to be the #1; if he levels offs somewhere between the last two years, he's an asset.
RICK SELLERS 1967 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 LAK 253 66 3 1 9 19 2 2 .261 .312 .387 .245 62 28 1992 LON 330 79 9 1 8 30 1 0 .239 .303 .345 .229 76 31 1993 LON 240 56 5 0 5 37 3 2 .233 .336 .317 .233 56 24 1993 TOL 46 13 3 1 1 3 0 1 .283 .327 .457 .264 12 6 1994 IND 179 45 5 0 2 23 0 1 .251 .337 .313 .231 41 17 1995 CHT 286 65 7 2 7 38 2 1 .227 .318 .339 .232 66 29
DON SLAUGHT 1959 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 PIT 226 73 16 1 2 21 1 0 .323 .381 .429 .288 65 34 1992 PIT 261 98 20 3 5 19 2 2 .375 .418 .533 .328 86 51 1993 PIT 377 114 16 2 9 29 2 1 .302 .352 .427 .275 104 52 1994 PIT 239 70 3 0 2 34 0 0 .293 .381 .331 .260 62 29 1995 PIT 111 34 3 0 0 9 0 0 .306 .358 .333 .251 28 12 1996 PRJ 281 75 11 1 10 31 0 0 .267 .340 .420 .267 75 38Why the Pirates would let him go, but bring in Lance Parrish is beyond me. Still a good singles/doubles hitter, but health problems make him a backup. Can help a team as a number-two catcher and pinch-hitter. Traded to the Angels, he's their best option at catcher while Todd Greene develops.
GREG SMITH 1967 SS YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 ABQ 158 28 3 1 0 6 7 0 .177 .207 .209 .136 21 4 1992 TOL 450 101 12 2 6 40 21 3 .224 .288 .300 .216 97 38 1993 IOW 496 131 14 1 7 49 29 10 .264 .330 .339 .245 122 56 1994 NWO 411 92 14 3 1 42 32 8 .224 .296 .280 .217 89 36 1995 NWO 170 33 1 1 0 16 13 7 .194 .263 .212 .170 29 9 1995 ROC 209 42 4 1 3 19 11 2 .201 .268 .273 .198 41 15If they were a prospect in 1990, and you've lost track of them, just check the Red Sox and Reds organizations.
EDDIE TAUBENSEE 1969 C YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 CSP 276 73 11 1 10 23 0 0 .264 .321 .420 .259 71 35 1991 CLE 67 18 2 1 0 4 0 0 .269 .310 .328 .227 15 6 1992 TUC 72 22 6 1 1 6 0 1 .306 .359 .458 .280 20 11 1992 HOU 303 76 13 1 7 34 2 1 .251 .326 .370 .246 75 34 1993 HOU 289 74 8 1 9 21 1 0 .256 .306 .384 .243 70 31 1994 CIN 176 53 7 2 7 15 2 0 .301 .356 .483 .292 51 28 1995 CIN 218 64 13 2 8 22 2 2 .294 .358 .482 .288 63 35 1996 PRJ 437 127 30 1 19 46 4 3 .291 .358 .494 .293 128 72NLoCD victim. The Reds brought Santiago in last year and gave him a chunk of the playing time, then also gave Berryhill ABs. This year, they signed Joe Oliver. Taubensee isn't going to be as good as Kenny Lofton, but he can be worth 75% of Lofton as a catcher who can flat-out hit. Recommended.
PAT WATKINS 1973 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1994 WNS 525 131 14 2 14 46 22 9 .250 .310 .364 .241 127 58 1995 WNS 109 21 1 1 3 8 1 0 .193 .248 .303 .189 21 7 1995 CHT 361 99 16 1 10 28 5 3 .274 .326 .407 .258 93 45Could be interesting. Apparently he started wearing glasses or contacts last year, which may or may not explain the jump in production at Chattanooga. Good arm, some knowledge of the strike zone...a full year at Indianapolis will tell us a lot. I like him.
BRANDON WILSON 1969 SS YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 SBN 473 122 12 3 3 39 20 7 .258 .314 .315 .230 109 45 1992 SAR 410 106 15 3 5 38 19 9 .259 .321 .346 .241 99 44 1992 BIR 109 29 4 0 0 4 4 0 .266 .292 .303 .221 24 9 1993 BIR 511 132 15 3 2 42 32 7 .258 .315 .311 .234 120 51 1994 NAS 367 77 10 2 4 27 12 4 .210 .264 .281 .193 71 24 1995 CHT 310 96 17 1 8 24 10 4 .310 .359 .448 .284 88 47 1995 NAS 85 24 2 0 1 4 4 1 .282 .315 .341 .241 21 9
NIGEL WILSON 1970 OF YEAR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS BA OBA SA EQA EQH EQR 1991 DUN 462 127 10 5 15 19 15 6 .275 .304 .416 .254 117 55 1992 KNX 527 141 22 4 22 29 12 5 .268 .306 .450 .262 138 69 1993 EDM 355 86 12 2 13 19 6 2 .242 .281 .397 .238 84 37 1994 EDM 300 78 11 1 8 18 2 2 .260 .302 .383 .240 72 32 1995 IND 301 91 20 2 13 13 7 3 .302 .331 .512 .289 87 48Legacy: the first Marlin. Also, holder of one of the worst 0-fers in ML history, currently at 23.
Organizational Pitching Report
OPR Points: 10 Rank in MLB: 28th Rank in NL Central: 5th
Name Lvl Age IP Work H/G K/BB K/G ERA Adj Ttl Grade Lyons, Curt 3 5 8 0 4 3 3 4 -1 29 C Robbins, Jason 3 1 7 0 6 5 3 3 -1 27 C- Grott, Matt 8 -2 5 0 5 7 1 1 0 25 D Nix, Jim 6 0 3 0 2 5 5 3 0 24 D Priest, Eddie 3 3 2 0 4 5 6 2 -1 24 D Reed, Chris 3 3 7 0 6 1 2 3 -1 24 D Koppe, Clint 0 1 8 0 4 6 3 3 -1 24 D Best Prospect in 1994: Blaine Beatty (C) Best Rookie Starter in 1995: C.J. Nitkowski (D)
BLAINE BEATTY 1964 LBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 TID 164.0 217 88 24 34 72 4.83 7 11 11.91 1.87 3.95 1992 IND 89.0 116 50 10 25 55 5.06 4 6 11.73 2.53 5.56 1993 CAR 89.3 73 47 15 39 55 4.74 4 6 7.35 3.93 5.54 1993 BUF 34.0 53 22 2 9 14 5.82 1 3 14.03 2.38 3.71 1994 CHT 185.3 176 87 27 55 141 4.22 10 11 8.55 2.67 6.85 1995 CHT 47.7 66 24 2 18 28 4.53 2 3 12.46 3.40 5.29 1995 IND 63.3 95 38 6 20 37 5.40 2 5 13.50 2.84 5.26
JEFF BRANTLEY 1964 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SFG 94.7 85 35 8 54 88 3.33 7 4 8.08 5.13 8.37 1992 SFG 91.3 72 32 11 48 97 3.15 6 4 7.09 4.73 9.56 1993 SFG 112.0 125 64 23 51 83 5.14 5 7 10.04 4.10 6.67 1994 CIN 64.7 47 18 6 28 65 2.51 5 2 6.54 3.90 9.05 1995 CIN 69.7 57 22 10 20 62 2.84 5 3 7.36 2.58 8.01Not the ideal closer, and I think he'd be much more effective in the Eric Plunk role, going once around the lineup in the 6th-8th innings. He can handle the workload, and his longball tendency is less dangerous earlier in the game. Out with a broken foot to start the season, so if Carrasco or Ruffin or someone gets hot, he could end up with that role.
TRAVIS BUCKLEY 1970 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 PCH 115.3 140 72 20 76 101 5.62 4 9 10.92 5.93 7.88 1992 HAR 147.3 183 76 14 74 107 4.64 7 9 11.18 4.52 6.54 1993 JAX 44.3 65 39 11 21 31 7.92 1 4 13.20 4.26 6.29 1994 CHT 78.3 92 41 11 33 57 4.71 4 5 10.57 3.79 6.55 1994 JAX 66.3 74 42 6 36 26 5.70 2 5 10.04 4.88 3.53 1995 CHT 13.3 22 12 5 5 8 8.10 0 1 14.85 3.38 5.40 1995 IND 126.3 165 91 11 39 84 6.48 4 10 11.75 2.78 5.98Trash-talking cornerback out of Florida State. Good hands, good speed...oh...wait, that's Terrell Buckley. Travis would be advised to try football at this point; or basketball; or accounting.
DAVE BURBA 1967 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CLG 66.0 80 30 5 26 40 4.09 3 4 10.91 3.55 5.45 1991 SEA 36.0 37 15 4 14 18 3.75 2 2 9.25 3.50 4.50 1992 PHX 69.3 88 37 8 22 44 4.80 3 5 11.42 2.86 5.71 1992 SFG 70.7 86 44 6 34 53 5.60 3 5 10.95 4.33 6.75 1993 SFG 94.0 106 53 17 41 96 5.07 4 6 10.15 3.93 9.19 1994 SFG 74.0 65 39 6 47 88 4.74 3 5 7.91 5.72 10.70 1995 CIN 62.7 56 23 4 27 50 3.30 4 3 8.04 3.88 7.18 1995 SFG 43.0 39 23 5 26 46 4.81 2 3 8.16 5.44 9.63Pitched well after coming to Cincinnati in the Portgal/Sanders trade. Currently slated as the #4 starter, but his situation could change depending on the health of Jose Rijo and Jeff Brantley, and how his arm holds up. Little star potential.
JOHN BURGOS 1968 LRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 REA 20.3 32 16 3 13 8 7.08 0 2 14.16 5.75 3.54 1991 SWB 60.0 57 24 6 27 30 3.60 4 3 8.55 4.05 4.50 1993 CHT 46.0 38 24 5 15 29 4.70 2 3 7.43 2.93 5.67 1994 CSC 32.7 39 13 3 2 17 3.58 2 2 10.74 .55 4.68 1994 WNS 19.3 39 25 7 13 12 11.64 0 2 18.16 6.05 5.59 1994 CHT 50.3 52 26 6 20 29 4.65 3 3 9.30 3.58 5.19 1995 CHT 95.3 103 42 12 21 68 3.97 6 5 9.72 1.98 6.42AAA spot man/long reliever, has posted good ERAs the last two years despite mediocre peripheral numbers. May show up on a roster this year, so I'll save everyone some time: don't bother. He's not good.
HECTOR CARRASCO 1970 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 PTS 18.3 35 23 4 26 13 11.29 0 2 17.18 12.76 6.38 1992 ASH 68.0 78 41 10 56 43 5.43 3 5 10.32 7.41 5.69 1993 KNE 131.3 188 108 23 88 82 7.40 3 12 12.88 6.03 5.62 1994 CIN 56.0 42 15 4 31 42 2.41 4 2 6.75 4.98 6.75 1995 CIN 86.7 92 43 2 48 64 4.47 4 6 9.55 4.98 6.65Started the year like he owned the league, but had a bad spell midseason which killed his numbers. Still a very good pitcher, still recommended. I would have made his the favorite to be the closer, but Ray Knight seems to have a problem with him, among others.
BRIAN DRAHMAN 1967 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 VAN 22.7 22 12 3 14 17 4.76 1 2 8.74 5.56 6.75 1991 CWS 30.7 26 14 5 13 21 4.11 1 2 7.63 3.82 6.16 1992 VAN 54.3 53 23 6 31 35 3.81 3 3 8.78 5.13 5.80 1993 NAS 53.0 65 28 3 21 50 4.75 2 4 11.04 3.57 8.49 1994 EDM 57.3 54 29 10 26 58 4.55 3 3 8.48 4.08 9.10 1994 FLA 13.0 15 7 2 6 7 4.85 0 1 10.38 4.15 4.85 1995 CHR 18.3 29 13 1 13 15 6.38 1 1 14.24 6.38 7.36 1995 OKL 30.3 36 14 2 15 18 4.15 1 2 10.68 4.45 5.34
MIKE FERRY 1970 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CDR 22.3 31 26 4 25 18 10.48 0 2 12.49 10.07 7.25 1991 CWV 38.7 57 34 6 24 32 7.91 1 3 13.27 5.59 7.45 1992 CDR 146.7 182 86 18 42 91 5.28 6 10 11.17 2.58 5.58 1993 CHT 174.7 209 102 27 32 92 5.26 7 12 10.77 1.65 4.74 1994 CHT 135.7 197 89 19 26 82 5.90 5 10 13.07 1.72 5.44 1994 IND 29.7 50 29 6 14 15 8.80 1 2 15.17 4.25 4.55 1995 CHT 143.7 210 72 9 24 61 4.51 7 9 13.16 1.50 3.82 1995 IND 16.7 24 17 5 4 3 9.18 0 2 12.96 2.16 1.62I don't care what happened to your ERA: four years of steadily declining strikeout rates means you cannot be a prospect.
MATT GROTT 1968 LBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 HAR 14.3 16 11 6 8 14 6.91 1 1 10.05 5.02 8.79 1991 HUN 52.3 74 43 12 40 51 7.39 1 5 12.73 6.88 8.77 1992 CHT 37.0 46 24 5 30 37 5.84 1 3 11.19 7.30 9.00 1993 IND 96.0 92 41 8 43 74 3.84 6 5 8.62 4.03 6.94 1994 IND 111.3 117 44 10 34 64 3.56 7 5 9.46 2.75 5.17 1995 IND 110.7 115 71 17 29 73 5.77 4 8 9.35 2.36 5.94
XAVIER HERNANDEZ 1966 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 TUC 34.3 32 13 2 9 32 3.41 2 2 8.39 2.36 8.39 1991 HOU 62.3 70 32 8 33 59 4.62 3 4 10.11 4.76 8.52 1992 HOU 110.7 86 31 7 44 107 2.52 9 3 6.99 3.58 8.70 1993 HOU 95.7 77 35 7 31 107 3.29 7 4 7.24 2.92 10.07 1994 NYY 39.0 50 22 5 19 40 5.08 2 2 11.54 4.38 9.23 1995 CIN 89.7 101 44 8 32 84 4.42 5 5 10.14 3.21 8.43Strange. He still strikes out a man an inning or so, still has a reasonable walk rate, still keeps the ball in the park. But the last two years he's been much more hittable than his previous two. My guess is that it's a problem with a breaking pitch, not his fastball, and that he'll bounce back to '92-'93 levels this year.
BRYAN HICKERSON 1964 LRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SHV 36.0 44 18 4 13 35 4.50 2 2 11.00 3.25 8.75 1991 PHX 19.7 29 10 1 4 20 4.58 1 1 13.27 1.83 9.15 1991 SFG 49.7 57 20 3 18 47 3.62 3 3 10.33 3.26 8.52 1992 SFG 87.0 79 31 10 23 76 3.21 6 4 8.17 2.38 7.86 1993 SFG 118.3 154 64 13 44 75 4.87 5 8 11.71 3.35 5.70 1994 SFG 97.7 130 61 17 40 62 5.62 4 7 11.98 3.69 5.71 1995 CHC 31.0 37 25 4 16 28 7.26 1 2 10.74 4.65 8.13 1995 COL 16.0 30 17 5 12 11 9.56 0 2 16.88 6.75 6.19With his third straight mediocre-to-poor year, he moves into that nebulous pool of lefties who bounce around looking for jobs. He falls into the "Tom Bolton" group: he can start and relieve, and isn't effective enough against left-handed batters to make him a specialist.
MIKE JACKSON 1965 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SEA 87.3 70 32 6 33 85 3.30 6 4 7.21 3.40 8.76 1992 SFG 82.0 81 35 10 36 90 3.84 5 4 8.89 3.95 9.88 1993 SFG 76.3 64 30 9 27 76 3.54 4 4 7.55 3.18 8.96 1994 SFG 42.0 25 8 4 12 53 1.71 4 1 5.36 2.57 11.36 1995 CIN 49.0 40 14 4 20 41 2.57 4 1 7.35 3.67 7.53Battled some minor aches and pains last year, but nothing which should carry over. Moved on to Seattle as a free agent, where he'll continue to be one of the best middlemen in baseball. If Ayala continues to spit the bit, he could step in and save 20 games. Highly recommended in a simulation league; less so, but still a good pickup, in rotisserie.
KEVIN JARVIS 1970 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1992 CWV 119.3 160 83 9 41 87 6.26 4 9 12.07 3.09 6.56 1993 WNS 131.3 152 79 21 61 69 5.41 5 10 10.42 4.18 4.73 1993 CHT 34.3 33 10 0 12 15 2.62 3 1 8.65 3.15 3.93 1994 IND 126.0 151 54 11 35 89 3.86 7 7 10.79 2.50 6.36 1994 CIN 18.0 22 12 4 5 10 6.00 1 1 11.00 2.50 5.00 1995 IND 58.0 73 38 3 21 37 5.90 2 4 11.33 3.26 5.74 1995 CIN 78.3 97 53 13 34 33 6.09 3 6 11.14 3.91 3.79When he pitched the first complete game in the majors last year, he was greeted with huzzahs by most of the media. I looked at it somewhat differently: how important a player could Kevin Jarvis be if the Davey Johnson was so willing to let him finish a game, despite having a strong bullpen. As it turns out, Jarvis went on to get hammered and eventually ended up back in Indianapolis. No prospect.
DOMINGO JEAN 1969 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SBN 146.0 157 115 27 72 95 7.09 4 12 9.68 4.44 5.86 1992 FTL 147.0 138 78 12 66 133 4.78 7 9 8.45 4.04 8.14 1993 ABY 57.3 47 27 2 36 34 4.24 3 3 7.38 5.65 5.34 1993 COH 42.3 44 16 3 15 35 3.40 3 2 9.35 3.19 7.44 1993 NYY 39.7 39 18 6 19 23 4.08 2 2 8.85 4.31 5.22 1994 TUC 17.7 18 10 3 12 15 5.09 1 1 9.17 6.11 7.64 1995 OKL 83.3 98 57 13 64 67 6.16 3 6 10.58 6.91 7.24 1995 TUC 13.0 13 7 2 7 14 4.85 0 1 9.00 4.85 9.69If Bowden wants, he can pick up Andy Stankiewicz and have the entire Yankee/Astro trade from the winter of 1993. Jean appears to be lost at sea, and while he could find his way back, it won't be in 1996.
RUSTY KILGO 1967 LRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 WPB 66.7 81 30 4 27 38 4.05 3 4 10.94 3.65 5.13 1991 HAR 24.0 29 14 3 2 17 5.25 1 2 10.88 .75 6.38 1992 CDR 31.7 25 9 2 6 22 2.56 3 1 7.11 1.71 6.25 1992 CHT 30.3 25 18 7 13 9 5.34 1 2 7.42 3.86 2.67 1993 CHT 72.0 112 43 2 35 51 5.38 3 5 14.00 4.38 6.38 1994 IND 59.0 83 31 5 18 30 4.73 3 4 12.66 2.75 4.58 1995 CHT 61.3 75 22 1 14 51 3.23 4 3 11.01 2.05 7.48
LARRY LUEBBERS 1970 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CDR 163.0 241 124 27 66 65 6.85 5 13 13.31 3.64 3.59 1992 CDR 72.0 97 47 7 38 35 5.88 3 5 12.12 4.75 4.38 1992 CHT 80.3 103 42 7 41 47 4.71 4 5 11.54 4.59 5.27 1993 IND 80.3 84 41 7 50 51 4.59 4 5 9.41 5.60 5.71 1993 CIN 76.0 71 41 8 41 40 4.86 3 5 8.41 4.86 4.74 1994 IOW 132.0 157 91 25 91 89 6.20 4 11 10.70 6.20 6.07 1995 CHT 110.7 117 67 11 65 72 5.45 4 8 9.52 5.29 5.86
CHUCK MCELROY 1968 LRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CHC 100.3 78 31 9 60 99 2.78 7 4 7.00 5.38 8.88 1992 CHC 84.0 84 45 7 55 95 4.82 4 5 9.00 5.89 10.18 1993 IOW 15.0 19 9 1 10 13 5.40 1 1 11.40 6.00 7.80 1993 CHC 46.7 51 27 4 27 33 5.21 2 3 9.84 5.21 6.36 1994 CIN 57.3 53 14 2 15 39 2.20 5 1 8.32 2.35 6.12 1995 CIN 39.7 49 27 5 16 27 6.13 1 3 11.12 3.63 6.13Probably not being maximized. McElroy had his best seasons as a long reliever. He has no substantial platoon split, and can handle being used often, and for long outings. He needs to be in a situation where there is another lefty around to be the spot man, freeing him for longer work. Fun pitcher to watch.
JIM NIX 1971 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1993 CWV 57.7 34 21 7 28 49 3.28 4 2 5.31 4.37 7.65 1993 WNS 32.0 41 26 12 18 22 7.31 1 3 11.53 5.06 6.19 1994 WNS 154.0 195 109 29 99 103 6.37 5 12 11.40 5.79 6.02 1995 CHT 78.7 90 42 11 33 59 4.81 4 5 10.30 3.78 6.75
MARK PORTUGAL 1963 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 HOU 167.3 171 85 24 62 129 4.57 8 11 9.20 3.33 6.94 1992 HOU 101.0 81 32 10 44 69 2.85 7 4 7.22 3.92 6.15 1993 HOU 204.7 202 71 12 84 140 3.12 14 9 8.88 3.69 6.16 1994 SFG 136.7 147 69 18 48 91 4.54 7 8 9.68 3.16 5.99 1995 SFG 103.3 110 50 10 35 62 4.35 5 6 9.58 3.05 5.40 1995 CIN 76.7 85 33 7 22 33 3.87 5 4 9.98 2.58 3.87After his flirtation with greatness, Portugal has reverted to his natural position: innings-eating #3 starter. Unfortunately, he's still being paid for his '92-'93 run, so he may find himself bouncing around for the remaining two years of his contract, as teams with money to spend rent him, then pass him on when they find themselves running low on funds. Steady decline in K rate is a danger sign; Portugal should experience a serious dip in effectiveness this year. Avoid.
TIM PUGH 1967 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CHT 36.7 26 11 5 11 19 2.70 3 1 6.38 2.70 4.66 1991 NAS 141.0 157 81 16 54 86 5.17 6 10 10.02 3.45 5.49 1992 NAS 160.7 168 67 12 67 118 3.75 10 8 9.41 3.75 6.61 1992 CIN 45.3 49 16 3 14 20 3.18 3 2 9.73 2.78 3.97 1993 CIN 161.7 193 85 22 64 98 4.73 8 10 10.74 3.56 5.46 1994 IND 43.0 55 25 7 15 21 5.23 2 3 11.51 3.14 4.40 1994 CIN 47.3 60 33 5 27 25 6.27 1 4 11.41 5.13 4.75 1995 IND 40.3 49 28 6 17 20 6.25 1 3 10.93 3.79 4.46 1995 CIN 97.7 107 44 12 33 38 4.05 5 6 9.86 3.04 3.50
RICK REED 1965 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 BUF 158.7 185 55 5 18 98 3.12 11 7 10.49 1.02 5.56 1992 OMA 58.7 75 34 10 12 36 5.22 3 4 11.51 1.84 5.52 1992 KCR 98.7 111 43 11 18 59 3.92 6 5 10.12 1.64 5.38 1993 OKL 33.0 40 15 2 2 20 4.09 2 2 10.91 .55 5.45 1993 OMA 123.3 125 47 19 16 59 3.43 8 6 9.12 1.17 4.31 1994 IND 134.0 178 78 22 19 78 5.24 6 9 11.96 1.28 5.24 1994 OKL 11.3 10 4 1 0 8 3.18 1 0 7.94 .00 6.35 1994 TEX 16.3 16 9 3 6 13 4.96 1 1 8.82 3.31 7.16 1995 IND 129.3 149 70 18 32 93 4.87 6 8 10.37 2.23 6.47 1995 CIN 17.0 19 11 6 3 10 5.82 1 1 10.06 1.59 5.29Scab.
JOSE RIJO 1965 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CIN 203.0 174 65 11 57 185 2.88 15 8 7.71 2.53 8.20 1992 CIN 210.7 192 65 21 49 191 2.78 16 7 8.20 2.09 8.16 1993 CIN 253.7 212 65 22 68 238 2.31 21 7 7.52 2.41 8.44 1994 CIN 171.0 179 64 16 54 176 3.37 11 8 9.42 2.84 9.26 1995 CIN 68.7 81 31 6 23 62 4.06 4 4 10.62 3.01 8.13Injuries finally took down one of the best pitchers of this era. We've been spoiled by Maddux and Clemens, but Rijo was right with them from 1988-1993, posting six consecutive sub-3.00 ERAs while pitching in a bandbox. His W-L records were never spectacular, but he is probably the third-best pitcher of the post-Carlton era. He should return in May or June, but with diminished effectiveness. Needs another 3-5 years of good pitching for Hall of Fame consideration.
JOHNNY RUFFIN 1972 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SAR 146.3 164 100 30 71 92 6.15 5 11 10.09 4.37 5.66 1992 SAR 56.7 70 65 19 54 49 10.32 1 5 11.12 8.58 7.78 1992 BIR 44.7 60 51 9 41 38 10.28 1 4 12.09 8.26 7.66 1993 BIR 21.0 19 11 4 10 19 4.71 1 1 8.14 4.29 8.14 1993 NAS 57.7 53 24 6 17 70 3.75 3 3 8.27 2.65 10.92 1993 CIN 37.3 35 13 4 12 31 3.13 2 2 8.44 2.89 7.47 1994 CIN 69.7 57 23 7 28 45 2.97 5 3 7.36 3.62 5.81 1995 IND 48.0 32 23 5 42 58 4.31 2 3 6.00 7.88 10.88 1995 CIN 13.0 4 2 0 12 11 1.38 1 0 2.77 8.31 7.62Vaguely reminiscent of Jack McDowell's 1989. After a promising rookie season, each pitcher spent much of the next year at AAA. I expect Ruffin to come back and become one of the best relievers in the league, as long as Ray Knight doesn't ruin him by yammering about his attitude. Recommended.
ROGER SALKELD 1971 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 JAX 142.3 161 70 19 57 127 4.43 7 9 10.18 3.60 8.03 1991 CLG 18.3 16 13 4 13 20 6.38 1 1 7.85 6.38 9.82 1993 JAX 71.7 82 45 13 33 46 5.65 3 5 10.30 4.14 5.78 1993 SEA 14.0 13 3 0 4 15 1.93 2 0 8.36 2.57 9.64 1994 CLG 63.3 63 38 12 39 49 5.40 2 5 8.95 5.54 6.96 1994 SEA 57.3 68 31 5 41 48 4.87 2 4 10.67 6.44 7.53 1995 IND 114.7 113 70 16 65 85 5.49 5 8 8.87 5.10 6.67 1995 TAC 14.7 8 4 1 7 11 2.45 1 1 4.91 4.30 6.75Stolen from Seattle for Tim Belcher, who was a Homestead refugee. Salkeld's got an injury history, and hasn't pitched great anywhere, but if he just gets a little better about home plate, he could explode on the league. A full season of junk relief at the major league level would do wonders.
RICH SAUVEUR 1964 LRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 TID 43.0 35 15 1 23 48 3.14 3 2 7.33 4.81 10.05 1992 OMA 112.7 102 57 12 42 91 4.55 6 7 8.15 3.36 7.27 1992 KCR 14.0 16 6 1 8 8 3.86 1 1 10.29 5.14 5.14 1993 IND 33.0 43 14 1 8 21 3.82 2 2 11.73 2.18 5.73 1994 IND 64.3 52 25 8 24 64 3.50 4 3 7.27 3.36 8.95 1995 IND 54.3 52 21 3 21 47 3.48 3 3 8.61 3.48 7.79
PETE SCHOUREK 1969 LSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 TID 23.3 21 9 4 9 16 3.47 2 1 8.10 3.47 6.17 1991 NYM 85.7 81 41 9 44 71 4.31 5 5 8.51 4.62 7.46 1992 TID 50.0 51 21 4 25 38 3.78 3 3 9.18 4.50 6.84 1992 NYM 136.0 136 54 13 47 66 3.57 8 7 9.00 3.11 4.37 1993 NYM 126.7 168 79 15 49 76 5.61 5 9 11.94 3.48 5.40 1994 CIN 80.7 91 36 9 30 71 4.02 4 5 10.15 3.35 7.92 1995 CIN 189.3 168 68 18 46 159 3.23 13 8 7.99 2.19 7.56OK, I'm convinced. I thought Schourek's two good months in 1994 screamed "Fluke," but clearly I missed something. A wonderful pitcher to watch, probably my second favorite after Maddux. Schourek moves the ball around as well as any pitcher in baseball right now, and that includes the Master and Glavine. If he isn't overworked, he'll have an outstanding career. Like many of the good LH starters (Finley, Glavine, Smiley), no platoon differential; if anything, he's more effective against righties.
SCOTT SCUDDER 1968 RSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CIN 100.7 96 49 8 59 55 4.38 5 6 8.58 5.27 4.92 1992 CLE 106.7 137 69 11 54 78 5.82 4 8 11.56 4.56 6.58 1993 CHR 129.0 170 100 27 60 58 6.98 3 11 11.86 4.19 4.05 1994 BUF 140.3 189 91 22 40 76 5.84 5 11 12.12 2.57 4.87 1995 IND 36.7 50 27 5 11 13 6.63 1 3 12.27 2.70 3.19
JEFF SHAW 1967 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 CSP 71.3 79 45 14 24 53 5.68 3 5 9.97 3.03 6.69 1991 CLE 71.7 68 25 6 26 35 3.14 5 3 8.54 3.27 4.40 1992 CSP 146.3 171 76 18 39 83 4.67 7 9 10.52 2.40 5.10 1993 MON 94.7 97 47 14 36 54 4.47 5 6 9.22 3.42 5.13 1994 MON 66.7 70 30 8 16 49 4.05 3 4 9.45 2.16 6.62 1995 MON 61.7 58 30 4 27 44 4.38 3 4 8.46 3.94 6.42Unsung hero of the Montreal bullpen, picking up the innings which are too unimportant for Rojas, Scott, et al and pitching well. Why they felt the need to trade him for Jose DeLeon is a mystery. A fine addition for the Cincinnati bullpen, where he'll have pretty much the same role. Minimal rotisserie value.
JOHN SMILEY 1965 LSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 PIT 206.3 206 74 22 46 139 3.23 14 9 8.99 2.01 6.06 1992 MIN 237.0 225 91 20 62 196 3.46 15 11 8.54 2.35 7.44 1993 CIN 104.3 113 58 17 33 63 5.00 5 7 9.75 2.85 5.43 1994 CIN 157.7 171 71 18 39 115 4.05 9 9 9.76 2.23 6.56 1995 CIN 175.0 184 68 11 40 124 3.50 11 8 9.46 2.06 6.38Pretty good pitcher, although not as good as it looked like he was going to be. Very consistent; the 1993 line was ruined by an injury. Has at least two more years at this level, and could jump up and have another 20-win season.
SCOTT SULLIVAN 1971 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1994 CHT 114.3 119 75 17 50 97 5.90 4 9 9.37 3.94 7.64 1995 IND 56.3 60 36 5 27 54 5.75 2 4 9.59 4.31 8.63Relief pitcher prospect, still probably a year removed froma substantial contribution. The Brantley injury may create an opportunity, but I don't think he's ready.
MARCOS VASQUEZ 1969 RBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 MCN 83.3 87 59 8 46 47 6.37 3 6 9.40 4.97 5.08 1991 DUR 20.3 39 16 0 11 9 7.08 0 2 17.26 4.87 3.98 1992 DUR 68.0 66 32 9 39 39 4.24 4 4 8.74 5.16 5.16 1992 GRN 67.0 110 55 11 37 33 7.39 2 5 14.78 4.97 4.43 1993 GRN 74.0 108 49 2 41 50 5.96 2 6 13.14 4.99 6.08 1994 CHT 120.7 147 75 14 64 62 5.59 4 9 10.96 4.77 4.62 1995 CHT 111.7 134 61 16 51 66 4.92 5 7 10.80 4.11 5.32
FRANK VIOLA 1960 LSP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 NYM 230.3 256 94 26 55 140 3.67 14 12 10.00 2.15 5.47 1992 BOS 234.0 221 87 15 85 144 3.35 15 11 8.50 3.27 5.54 1993 BOS 180.3 194 69 10 67 105 3.44 11 9 9.68 3.34 5.24 1994 BOS 30.7 32 12 2 15 10 3.52 2 1 9.39 4.40 2.93 1995 DUN 10.7 13 10 5 3 6 8.44 0 1 10.97 2.53 5.06 1995 IND 31.7 39 20 4 7 25 5.68 1 3 11.08 1.99 7.11 1995 CIN 14.0 21 10 3 3 4 6.43 1 1 13.50 1.93 2.57
Done. BRIAN WARREN 1967 RRP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 FAY 23.7 24 9 2 4 17 3.42 2 1 9.13 1.52 6.46 1991 LAK 96.3 109 48 12 13 58 4.48 5 6 10.18 1.21 5.42 1992 LON 138.3 164 72 20 36 71 4.68 6 9 10.67 2.34 4.62 1993 LON 27.3 39 20 7 9 17 6.59 1 2 12.84 2.96 5.60 1993 TOL 34.7 43 16 3 12 23 4.15 2 2 11.16 3.12 5.97 1994 IND 76.7 91 33 4 16 56 3.87 5 4 10.68 1.88 6.57 1995 IND 53.0 67 21 2 11 35 3.57 3 3 11.38 1.87 5.94Good ERAs and lousy peripheral numbers do not usually translate into major league success. Warren has both of these, and won't be the one to break the mold.
GABE WHITE 1972 LBP YEAR TEAM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 1991 SUM 135.0 156 91 21 56 84 6.07 5 10 10.40 3.73 5.60 1992 ROK 170.0 186 100 28 67 110 5.29 7 12 9.85 3.55 5.82 1993 HAR 93.7 96 37 7 30 68 3.56 6 4 9.22 2.88 6.53 1993 OTT 38.0 44 17 4 7 25 4.03 2 2 10.42 1.66 5.92 1994 OTT 69.3 81 46 13 30 57 5.97 2 6 10.51 3.89 7.40 1994 MON 23.7 25 15 4 11 18 5.70 1 2 9.51 4.18 6.85 1995 OTT 59.3 67 35 14 19 35 5.31 3 4 10.16 2.88 5.31 1995 MON 25.0 26 18 8 9 24 6.48 1 2 9.36 3.24 8.64Part of the Great Expo Pither Giveaway last fall, when they also rid themselves of J.J. Thobe, Butch Henry and Jeff Shaw for no apparent reason. White regresses last year, but 24-year-old left-handers who have had some success do not grow on trees, and it's foolish to act as if they do. Opportunity is unclear, but he's recommended.