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or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library

February 13, 2008

Winter League Top Performers: Position Players

by Clay Davenport

A look at the top offensive producers from the winter leagues, and what it might mean for some as far as their shots at making major league rosters.

October 25, 2007

Projecting the World Series: Changing Pitchers Changes Outcomes

by Clay Davenport

Calculating the likely winner of the World Series changes pretty radically once you start evaluating the specific batter/pitcher matchups.

October 2, 2007

In Good Company: Baseball's Quickest Meltdowns

by Clay Davenport

Faster than you can say "90 percent chance of reaching the playoffs," some teams have famously imploded in the stretch drive. But which teams did it the fastest?

July 15, 2007

The Answer: No Asterisks Necessary

by Will Carroll and Clay Davenport

Sorting out the all-time achievements of the game's greatest sluggers can give us an answer we can all agree upon.

May 11, 2007

Counting Down to 756: When, and Against Who?

by Clay Davenport

Clay dives into the probabilities of when and where Barry Bonds will set the record.

March 26, 2007

Going Into LABR: Team BP at the 2007 LABR Draft

by Clay Davenport

Clay has a spring delivery that's sure to get you to thinking about your own fantasy exploits.

March 14, 2007

Hope and Faith: How the Baltimore Orioles Can Win the World Series

by Clay Davenport

Second-class citizens in the AL East seemingly forever, the Orioles have the assets to contend under the right circumstances.

December 14, 2006

Team and Organizational Ages: Young Mariners and Old Birds

by Clay Davenport

While working on the 2007 annual, Clay discovers some interesting information about player ages across teams.

December 8, 2006

What the Numbers Say: The Rule 5 Draft

by Clay Davenport

Clay runs the numbers on all the players picked in yesterday's Rule 5 Draft, distinguishing the legitimate major-leaguers from the wannabes.

October 26, 2006

Going Back in Time: Baseball in 1864

by Clay Davenport

Vintage Base Ball games have become a popular pastime. While attending one in Baltimore, Clay Davenport becomes part of the action.

September 30, 2006

Kissing Your Sister: Breaking Ties

by Clay Davenport

Clay factors in the MLB tiebreaker rules to make the Postseason Odds Report more accurate.

August 2, 2006

Going Streaking: The Odds of Chase Utley Catching DiMaggio

by Clay Davenport

Clay takes a closer look at Chase Utley's odds of reaching or breaking DiMaggio's hitting streak.

May 3, 2006

Playoff Odds Report: The Addition of PECOTA

by Clay Davenport

Clay describes the newest addition to BP's Playoff Odds report.

March 31, 2006

Probability and Possibility: The Odds Report Tackles the 2006 Season

by Clay Davenport

PECOTA has taken a crack at the standings, as have our individual authors. Now Clay Davenport steps up with a different, and more optimistic, look at how the season may play out.

March 23, 2006

About Outs: Rethinking Normalized League Values

by Clay Davenport

Clay has discovered a problem in the way we compute a great deal of advanced metrics, including EqA and RC/27.

March 1, 2006

The World Baseball Classic: Davenport Translations, Part Two

by Clay Davenport

Clay returns with Part Two of his look at the WBC participants.

February 28, 2006

The World Baseball Classic: Davenport Translations, Part One

by Clay Davenport

The World Baseball Classic is coming up, and Clay has some new Davenport Translation numbers to help handicap the field.

November 2, 2005

Watch the Leather: Handicapping the 2005 Gold Glove Awards

by Clay Davenport

With Gold Glove season upon us, Clay takes a look at who the numbers say should win the awards.

October 3, 2005

How Far They Fell: Putting the Indians' Miss Into Context

by Clay Davenport

Seven teams had better projected chances to make the postseason than the 2005 Indians did and missed, according to the Playoff Odds Report.

September 12, 2005

Playoff Odds Report, 1964: The Phillies' Collapse

by Clay Davenport

The popularity of the Playoff Odds Report spurred requests for past-season reports.