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December 11, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
Following up on yesterday's article, here is the definitive list of every transaction made at last weekend's Mock Winter Meetings in Chicago. The list of moves includes a blockbuster trade for Mark Teixeira, cheap contracts for Trot Nixon and Juan Gonzalez, and a surprise new home for Vladimir Guerrero.
December 10, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
A week before representatives from all 30 teams descend upon New Orleans for the annual winter meetings, a collection of equally knowledgeable but considerably less experienced men and women--our readers--gathered at a restaurant in Chicago with the same purpose: to craftily mold their teams' rosters, through canny trading and judicious use of the free-agent market, into the best team that money--a strictly budgeted amount of money--could buy. And like any good reality TV show, there were a couple of twists along the way. The mechanisms of the event were simple. The first 30 attendees to sign up were assigned a team in advance, and instructed to pore over their team's roster, look over the free-agent market, and come to the event prepared to wheel and deal. Each team was also given a firm budget number in advance that they could not exceed. The event began with each team announcing its list of non-tendered players, who then immediately went into the free-agent pile. All free agents were then represented by the remaining attendees, along with myself and Nate Silver. Will Carroll presided over the event, playing the unenviable role of Bud Selig.
October 16, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
A lot has happened since last we met. I've completed my residency, started a new job, passed my boards, and moved to Chicago. Which, given my proven attraction to lost causes, meant that it was only a matter of time before I became a Cubs fan.
My allegiance to this team may only be three months old, spanning less than 0.5% of the time since their last World Series appearance. But thanks to Dusty Baker, my patience is already wearing thin.
After a Game Seven performance that would make Jim Frey look like a tactical genius, the hope here is that a couple chinks may be starting to form on Baker's Teflon coating. His failings are well-covered, here and elsewhere, but indulge me in this quick synopsis nonetheless.
May 6, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
Welcome to the third and final instalment of my look at the meaningfulness of the first few dozen games of a team season. (Go back and review Parts 1 and 2 here. There will be a test later.) This final article looks to merge a team's starting record with its established performance over the past few years, to come up with a formula that most accurately projects its final record based on the available data. Warning: If you thought Part 2 was laden with too many equations, you're not going to like Part 3 any better.
I ended Part 2 with a projection that the Royals, based on their 17-5 start, are projected to finish with about 97 wins. The folly with that logic should be self-evident, but let me share some evidence with you to make the point a little more clear.
When the Royals' record reached 13-3, my inner circle of fellow Royals fans finally got serious about questioning whether such a strong start really meant anything in light of the team's 100-loss season in 2002. I decided to look for comparable teams throughout history that had gotten off to a similar start. Using my database of all teams from 1930 to 1999, I found a total of 75 teams that started the season either 12-4, 13-3, or 14-2. Sixty-three of those teams, or 84%, finished above .500. As a group, they finished with a .545 winning percentage.
But it's not all roses. Because I then whittled down that group to look only at those teams that had played less than .420 ball the previous season, which corresponds to a 68-94 record or worse.
April 28, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
Welcome to Part 2 of our look at the importance of hot starts. If you haven't already, read Part 1 first. We'll wait for you to get back.
Last time, I looked at how teams fared at season's end after starting the season with a particular record, varying the data by looking at starts of varying lengths. While I pointed out general trends in the data (as well as the exceptions that proved the rule), I did not sum up the data concisely into a single, coherent formula to predict a team's final record. That's what today's article is about. In Part 3--yes, there will be a Part 3--I want to examine how the interaction between a team's record at the start of the season, and its record the previous season, affects its final winning percentage.
April 22, 2003
by Rany Jazayerli
Today, I want to look at the relevance of a hot start on a team's overall winning record. (I know--where do I get these ideas?)
As I write this, the aliens who have collectively taken over the Kansas City Royals' entire roster are 14-3, the best start in team history. Not to be outdone, the Yankees are 15-3 and have outhomered their opponents this year by the miniscule margin of 35 to 4, which is a stat that deserves its own DTN article, if not its own episode of The X-Files. And both teams are trying to keep up with the Giants, who after Sunday's loss are 15-3 despite outscoring their opponents by the downright-reasonable margin of just 107 to 81.
The topic of the meaningfulness of hot starts has intrigued analysts since the Tigers' remarkable 35-5 start in 1984 persuaded Bill James to look at the subject in his 1985 Abstract. One of the major problems with this sort of data analysis is just getting the data for the day-by-day standings for every day in baseball history. James, working by hand, only had data from 1965 to 1984, but then he did not have the services of the incomparable, indispensable David W. Smith (the W. stands for "Support Project Retrosheet!"), who graciously provided me with just the data I needed.
August 30, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
To wrap up our series on the merits of the four-man rotation, let's look at some of the ancillary benefits of making the switch:
The four-man rotation simplifies a starter's between-start schedule. Most teams have their starters throw on the side once between starts, but no one really knows whether it's better to throw on the second day after a start, or the third. It's not even clear whether starters should throw only once. In Atlanta, Leo Mazzone has had continued success doing things his way: he has his starters throw twice on the side between starts instead of once. (He does this because he feels it gives the starter the same increased sharpness that comes from working on three days' rest.)
August 20, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
August 13, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
July 16, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
Continuing our discussion from last week on how to build a team at Coors Field, this time, from the run-prevention side.
by Rany Jazayerli
July 11, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
This year marks the tenth season of major league baseball in Denver. It is
clear now that none of us fully understood what we were getting ourselves into
when we allowed Rocky Mountain thin air to be unleashed on our national pastime.
Nine years and literally thousands of hanging curveballs, home runs, and
destroyed pitcher psyches later, we're still trying to wrap our hands around the
conundrum that is baseball at altitude.
(And before you mention the word "humidor", consider that with the recent run of
explosive offense at Coors Field, the Rockies and their opponents have combined
to score 11.74 runs per home game, compared to 8.61 runs per game on the road -
a 36% increase. It may no longer be the best hitters' park of all-time - Coors
Field increased run scoring by 58% from 1999 to 2001 - but it's still the best
hitters' park of our generation.)
June 18, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
Nothing spoils us like greatness. It is so easy to take for granted the magnificence of once-in-a-lifetime talents like Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez, precisely because their greatness produces a consistency that lulls us into becoming accustomed to their exploits.
Greatness isn't a quality reserved for those who take the field. The most dominant baseball figure of the past 25 years hasn't played in the major leagues since 1969. It has been 12 years since the playoffs started without a team managed by Bobby Cox, and he appears to be in no hurry to end that streak.
by Rany Jazayerli
May 14, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
When a team exceeds expectations to the degree that the Expos has, it's usually quite difficult to credit this phenomenon on a single aspect of the team's play. In this particular instance, however, it's dead simple. As Rob Neyer has waxed eloquent on two separate occasions, it's all about the walks.
by Rany Jazayerli
May 1, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall.
by Rany Jazayerli
April 16, 2002
by Rany Jazayerli
Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers' rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon.
by Rany Jazayerli
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