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May 9, 2002

Prospectus Feature: How Sure is a "Can't Miss" Pitching Prospect?

by Paul Covert

For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:

How Sure Is A "Sure Thing"?: Evaluating Prospect Evaluation

by Paul Covert