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April 24, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Looking at outfield defenses, I found that the difference between the best and the worst outfield defenses worked out to around 150 hits, given an average pitching staff and equal chances. These are the fly balls that skip past Carl Everett and are devoured by Darin Erstad.
For purposes of this column, figure 33% of those go for doubles. Generally, doubles are about 20% of all hits, including ground-ball hits, so if anything, that's a little conservative. And also for purposes of this example, we're playing in an average park with an average pitching staff backed up by an average infield. The average AL team last year hit .264/.327/.424, while the average NL team hit .259/.327/.410.
Let's say that you're in the NL, with an average outfield, and you replace those players with all-stick immobile outfielders and punt outfield defense--we'll call these guys the Kahrls. What happens to your pitchers?
April 22, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Would you kill someone for $1,000? What about $10,000? How far do I have to go before you start thinking "Well, do I know them? Are they bad people?" Or the opposite question: How much would you pay to prevent someone from being killed?
This is the choice baseball faces when they consider their security. It's much like the choices architects make when they construct ballparks: price, speed, and ease of construction each weighed against comfort, quality, security, earthquake resistance.
Baseball this last week was forced to re-assess the balance it had struck, when four fans ran out onto the field during a White Sox game, including a guy who apparently was really fond of umpire Laz Diaz's leg (and was stomped for his love).
April 17, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
I've recently written a couple of columns sketching a general measure of outfield fielding by looking at putouts the outfield turns as a percentage of team fly balls, using 2002 season data.
What about unit defense in the infield, though? Can we do the same thing there, except with ground balls instead of flies? And can that lead us to some really strange conclusions?
Yes on all counts, with some problems. While outfield putouts are context-neutral--each time a putout is recorded the batter, and only the batter, is out--infield putouts are context-heavy. A man on first means a successfully turned ground ball to short goes to the second baseman for the first out, and then (if possible) a second putout is recorded by the first baseman if the ball arrives there in time to get the batter.
For my purposes, though, I'm only interested when the infield turns any out, and only that first out. I'm going to try and isolate that by looking at infield unit POs by making a few adjustments:
April 15, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Did baseball's leaders conspire to white-wash the All-Star game? BP's Derek Zumsteg speculates on the subject, while resting comfortably atop the grassy knoll.
April 11, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Some time ago, I wrote a column on a few of the new ballparks, and using the available evidence on their dimensions, speculated on how they'd play. In response to that column, I got a particularly cool question from a number of different readers. That is: "What would the best pitchers' park look like?"
I love the questions that stick in your craw. How far back do you push the fences before today's home runs and many line drives become inside-the-park four-sackers, for instance?
In order to answer this question, I took the liberty of persuing our list of historical park factors, and did some sorting, some grouping, and some determining of thresholds.
April 8, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
It's a good week. I've got the MLB Extra Innings package, and after a long day of tinkering and swearing, my TiVo can now record up to 220 hours of baseball. I've seen so much fine baseball I feel like I'm in a pleasure coma--being able to sit down and watch NL teams I hardly ever got to see, while knowing that every Mariners game will be archived for my off-season amusement.
April 3, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Derek delves deeper into the mystery of the Twins outfield while lamenting the wearing of pants.
April 1, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Derek Zumsteg suggests an alternative to Major League Baseball's toothless drug policy, and a better use for Pete Rose's services.
March 27, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Outfield defense is, at first glance, one of the easier things to measure. If there's a fly ball and an outfielder catches it, they get at least one out, which is recorded statistically as a putout. But outfielders will almost never get a putout on a ground ball--the best they can do is pick it up and throw it to someone who will touch the base, or tag the runner. Can something that easy provide useful information?
March 24, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
People sometimes ask Prospectus writers what we'd do if we had $500 million, and they're surprised when we say we wouldn't buy a baseball team. Gary would become a scratch golfer. Jonah would build his dream house, with a gigantic rotating wheel he could run in that would power the neighborhood. I may be one of only a few who'd actually try and buy a baseball team.
March 20, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
I love prediction season. Right now, every sports media outlet in the country is running endless NCAA brackets, bracket-picking advice, and studies of past bracket upset patterns--and while I'll take it, I'm still scouring baseball pages to see what writer was foolish enough to put his name to the fortunes of only 30 teams, predicting the outcome of the 2003 baseball season. We do it every year here at Prospectus, and getting my predictions is like trying to get me out of the bar before I've finished my beer.
March 17, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Mariner president Chuck Armstrong was quoted on MLB.com this off-season, mentioning "I haven't attended an arbitration hearing in my 11 years with this ownership, but this one is too important. (Garcia's request) is way out of line...If I'm going all the way to Florida," he said, "I'm going there to win." He lost.
Now, I'm all for an owner aggressively pursuing team goals and trying to keep the budget down, but if you think you've got a star young pitcher, and you're concerned about his emotional maturity, perhaps the best way to handle a situation like this would be to give it to some competent representatives and let it go. Make some noise about how it's all business, nothing personal, and how you look forward to having Freddy back no matter what the outcome of arbitration. The Mariners had very little to gain and much to lose by making this such a high-profile, confrontational issue in front of the public.
March 13, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
A little over a year ago, Jonah Keri wrote an article for BP on the concept of "success cycles." In that article he described the apparent cyclical process of team-building--that organizations rebuild, contend, get old, and rebuild once more--while making the point that successful organizations recognize where they are on the success cycle, and make decisions accordingly. I was excited by this concept, at first, as it was both logical and intuitive, and began to do some charting of it. In the end, however, I have come to the conclusion that success cycles do not exist.
March 11, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
The new Hall of Fame Veterans Committee didn't elect anyone this year, despite having a number of excellent candidates in Ron Santo, Minnie Minoso, and the always-controversial Dick Allen. Because of this, it's likely that the rules will be tweaked in the future, lowering the threshold for induction. Never mind the fact that the Hall of Fame has much bigger problems on its hands, small induction classes mean small revenue for the folks in Cooperstown, New York. The more serious issues will have to wait.
And the serious issues I'm referring to? How about the fact that the Hall of Fame needs to tweak its electorate as well as its rules in the future? Comments by some of the voters have made it clear that the Hall of Fame would be better served by new voters.
March 7, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
In Part One, I took a walk through the big fielding stats: errors and fielding percentage, Range Factor, and Defensive Average/Zone Rating. Here, we'll talk about three of the more advanced fielding statistics: Pete Palmer's Fielding Runs, Clay Davenport's Fielding Translations, and Bill James' Win Shares.
March 4, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
The greatest change in baseball thought over the past 20 years has been the shift of focus from one offensive statistic (number of hits / number of times to plate that did not result in a walk) to a better one (number of times reached base / number of times at the plate). Granted, I realize that I'm omitting sacrifice flies and catcher interferences there, but that's the essence of batting average and on-base percentage. If you only knew on-base percentage, you'd do pretty well comparing players.
Unfortunately, there is no easy way to do this with fielding statistics--a fact that results in a disagreement between our eyes, instincts, and what we read. I've been trying to educate myself on fielding statistics for the last couple years, and I want to admit up front that I have not been able to reconcile them with my own evaluation. When I see Mike Cameron rated as a slightly above-average center fielder last year, I roll my eyes, because I have in my head a mental image of how far he can go to get a ball--a massive expanse few visiting outfielders can cover. The issue, though, is that it's not an accurate picture or particularly useful in evaluation.
February 27, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
Here are some of the storylines you are bound to read during spring training.
by Derek Zumsteg
No Job is Safe in Camp This Year, Manger Declares
As players trickle in to camp, the manager has a message for them: There are no guarantees this season.
February 24, 2003
by Derek Zumsteg
In Portland, Oregon (where Jeff Bower and I will be for a BP Pizza Feed in March), there are some developments that have suddenly made Portland the front-runner in convincing baseball to move another team to the West Coast.
by Derek Zumsteg
Last week I talked a little about possible homes for the Expos, profiling a number of cities often included in discussions about relocation. Well, according to reports, the big three contenders--Washington, D.C., Northern Virginia, and Portland, Oregon--are slated to make presentations to Major League Baseball on March 20th and 21st. MLB's major priority in selecting a place to move the team is not long-term viability, or strength of ownership, or anything like that. No, as you'd expect, it's the funding, location, and construction of a new ballpark.
(Sigh.)
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