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May 25, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Walking down Occidental to a Mariners game is a great experience. There's the smell of brats on grills, roasted peanuts and kettle corn, the bad music of persistent street musicians and the chatter of fellow fans walking south to the stadium...
...And guys selling programs. Independent programs. Many teams only have one program, the one the team puts out, but in Seattle, we have a choice.
I bought both this week to compare, and the results...man, I pity people in cities without competition, if their team-issued programs are anything like this.
May 19, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I saw perfection tonight. I saw Randy Johnson when he came to the Seattle Mariners from the Montreal Expos as a wild flame-thrower, I saw him refine himself into an ace pitcher, a guy who could throw 200 innings, strike out almost 300 guys, walk about 75, and keep his ERA under 3 in one of the AL's more notorious launching pads. He threw a no-hitter in Seattle in his early days (1990--8 K, 6 BB). I missed him getting through an inning on nine strikes for three strikeouts in 2001, which is a weird but almost as rare historical achievement, and I'm still mad about it.
Today, I was flipping around watching games while writing something else up when I found the Diamondbacks game. The announcers were talking all about the perfect game he had going and I started yelling "Shut up! Shut up!" at the television. I'm a guy who'll rail at the stars against astrology, I'll talk until spoons bend about what a bunch of baloney telekinesis is, I'll bore you to death about my hatred for John Edward, but when it comes to baseball and a chance to see one of the great games in history, I flip back to the superstitious caveman in a second.
Johnson's performance tonight was one of the most impressive in baseball history. Thirteen strikeouts in a game is the second-most of the 17 perfect games in the modern era--only Sandy Koufax in 1965 topped him, setting down 14. One-hundred and seventeen pitches isn't the most in a perfect game, either--David Wells threw 120 in his 1998 perfect game (struck out 11), but it's the second-highest among the games that offered pitch-count totals.
May 18, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I saw Khalil Greene down on the farm and I didn't see it. Whatever it was they were talking about, it wasn't there that game. Pushed through the minors, it's difficult to get a handle on whether he would hit or not, regain the walks he showed in college or not, if he could play shortstop well enough to hang there defensively. So far, he's hung in there, hitting .266/.348/.395 in the pitcher-friendly environment of Petco Park while starting at short. The surprising bit's been the walks, which are back in force. The Padres are investing playing time in the hopes that Greene will develop fast, and this may be the most interesting story to follow, as a contending team tries to break in a new shortstop while contending for a division race.
May 13, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
If you've scored games for any length of time--no matter if you were in the press box or the cheap seats--you've probably had this happen to you: 1) Someone mocks you for keeping score; 2) Later, the same person asks you for information off your card.
Scoring leaves a personal record of the game. Done well, it's like a familiar photograph that recalls the memories of a vacation. If I ever need to know what happened in some game, I can look up the results, or even the box score. But if I want to know how it felt to watch it, that's when I dig up my score cards. The long innings stretch out on the card, my chess-style notes next to great plays and weird manager decisions to revisit later. The guy who mocks the scorer goes home after the best game he's ever seen, but a week later remembers only what he saw on SportsCenter the next morning. The scorer has a hand-drawn portrait of the game he actually watched; what he experienced.
May 10, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I was disappointed that baseball backed off its plans to put Spider-Man 2 logos on bases in order to bring more kids into the game. What's baseball coming to when you can sign an agreement with those guys and they back off it over a little negative publicity? Isn't a deal a deal?
It's bad enough that MLB turns out to be so cowardly that it'll turn its back on the children they were trying to help, but what about the other outreach campaigns to widen baseball's appeal? Once they're putting ads in the field of play, it's open season: We can change the field, the game, whatever we want, in order to reach new audiences by running advertisements that they'll identify with.
May 6, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I was at Safeco Field on Tuesday, watching a fast-moving game that was on pace to wrap up 3-2 Mariners in about two and a half hours, and ended up with one of the longest, craziest games I've ever attended.
I scored this game. I've been working on an article about scoring and finding a good card to match your style, and thought I'd finally settled on one. This game, of course, became the torture-test for a scorecard:
April 29, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
[Ed. Note: The Expos have scored 40 runs in 22 games through Wednesday, and are now 5-17]. That's not just league-worst, that's in the running for all-time worst. Thirty-six runs is a run-and-a-half a game in a season where normal teams are averaging five runs a game. They're hitting for a team line of .201/.283/.254. There are maybe--maybe--10 players qualifying for the batting title who are hitting worse than the Expos as a team. That's tough.
They would have to almost double their run-scoring to move up one spot in the standings (Tampa Bay, at 67, is second-worst). Of their five wins, one was 2-0 and the other four were one-run wins. They've been shut out six times. Over a quarter of the time, they score no runs at all.
And that's just run-scoring. They're dead last in walks. Dead last in home runs. They're in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, which I'm sure is small consolation to Frank Robinson. Their best regular, Jose Vidro, is down on the hitting leaderboard below the century mark, right alongside notable sluggers like Bobby Higginson and Omar Vizquel.
April 27, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Given a discrepancy between "Pythagorean Wins" (what you'd expect from a team given a specific runs scored/runs allowed set) and actual wins leads to all kinds of investigation, chin-scratching, nose-picking, and navel-gazing. Some people will say a team is "stronger" than its actual record because it's underperforming the formula, and so forth. Suspects for the gap typically include: Strength of bullpen Managerial use of bullpen Clutch hitting Clutch pitching Chemistry Managerial strategies in tight games Luck This leads to interesting observations and theories (team x is 12-0 in one run games, manager Joe's teams consistently outperform their Pythagorean record except when they don't) but rarely insight. It's not as bad as putting a couple of stats into a blender, pressing the "pulse" button a couple of times, and claiming the resulting undrinkable smoothie is some kind of innovation. But it's still a waste of time.
April 22, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
You have to be strong offensively up the middle to win championships. I hear this all the time. The theory is that it's harder to find premium players at catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field, and that once you've done so, finding the fill-in guys around the edges is much easier. This seems to make sense at first glance: There are so many guys in the majors (and minors) that could play a decent left field while hitting well that teams have to stack them like cordwood outside their Triple-A parks. And 1B/DH types are so plentiful it's silly. But has that worked lately?
April 15, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
It's the bottom of the seventh, and the visiting team has just made its second
pitching change of the inning. The Obey-o-Tron flashes a meager assortment of
information on the new guy, none of it from Michael Wolverton or Keith
Woolner. How can you figure out if the reliever is carrying a bucket of water
or a gas pump? Derek explains.
April 13, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
No one wants to print out a batch of Prospectus statistical reports and take them to the game. So like MacGyver, we take some mental stats and make some ugly improvised devices. My goal is to make every step something I can do while drinking a beer--a quick bit of easy mental division and a comparison, for instance. And as a friend of mine was once advised by a fortune cookie: "If you want to find an easier way to do something, ask a lazy man."
March 23, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Here's the bigger issue, which I've saved for the second half of the article: Every other major league team takes it on the chin because of the relocation committee's failures. The Expos make almost nothing revenue-wise. Since baseball bought them, they've run Opening Day payrolls of around $40 million for two straight seasons. Plus $35 million a year to keep the lights on in the offices...work out their share of MLB media deals, divide by pi, and...the Expos probably cost Major League Baseball $40 million more than if they were a team that could manage to break even. Consider revenue sharing, that's easily going to be another $50 million, and now we're talking about serious money. Unless you're an Expos fan, the team you root for paid about $2.75 million a year under the old labor agreement and will pay more than $3 million this year. If this drags on for the entire season, 29 teams will have paid out a little shy of $10 million each for another team to compete against them. If it wasn't so stupid and contrived, and if you didn't know the history of how things got to be this bad, it'd be enough to make you sympathetic to contraction.
March 18, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Some people don't take spring training seriously enough. Fans head down to Arizona where they stay in cool hotels built around buttes, swap Tootsie Rolls for autographs, watch games in the sun, while poor saps like me toil away, pounding out columns under overcast skies as that day's member of the executive committee whips us with the content-producing cat o' nine tails. Teams play split-squad games. They're required to send a couple of anticipated regulars so what fans come out see some recognizable names, but I have to ask: If you're an average fan, it's a beautiful day, you're drinking your first beer in the sun, would you care if the Tigers sent out Fernando Vina or Cody Ross? Would you get up and demand a refund because Craig Monroe was out there in the outfield instead of Alex Sanchez? And some people take spring training far, far too seriously. I call these people "Ozzie Guillen."
March 11, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I've been looking for a gap in the Yankees armor this year, hoping to see where they might stumble and miss the playoffs. And, uh, it's not looking really good for me.
It's pretty easy for most teams. Despite the efforts of new GM Bill Bavasi, the Mariners can be taken apart pretty quickly: Edgar Martinez out for the season? Quinton McCracken subs at DH, and the offense dies. Bret Boone blows out his knee why playing weekend roller-hockey? Hello, Willie Bloomquist! An injury to Randy Winn or Ichiro Suzuki? Mmm, McCracken...we just can't get enough.
The Yankees have problems, but there's not much that causes a collapse. Last year we could look at the middle infield and see the lack of depth as a spike-filled pit, and when Derek Jeter got a knee dropped on his shoulder, in they fell. This year, a Jeter injury means the best shortstop ever goes back to his natural position. Sure, someone has to play third, but it's not that hard to scrape together a stop-gap solution. Heck, they were about to do it before they decided to blow the doors off and bring in Alex. Aaron Boone the Honest could be back in time to bring adequacy to the position.
March 3, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I wrote a piece in the Baseball Prospectus Basics last week ("How to run a bullpen.") I got a lot of feedback that ran like this: Hey, that table you ran shows that it's good to generally use the best reliever in tighter situations, rather than to protect three-run leads in the ninth...Facing a tie game in the eighth, wouldn't it make sense that a manager would save his best pitcher for the ninth, which would be even more important? This is a fine question, and one I think deserves to be answered in some depth.
February 25, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
I was reminded of the game Go when the Red Sox and Yankees got into again over who's the worst evil. John Henry, who made his fortune trading stocks and commodities on the free market, argued in favor of market restrictions to restrain his rival, while Steinbrenner fired back standard Boss comments. I was thinking of a shicho, where one side, trapped, continues to spend resources as they race towards the edge of the board, where they're caught and lose everything they expended, and everyone else watches them chase. Curt Schilling to Alex Rodriguez...Jose Vidro next? Then what, Alfonso Soriano to Boston? Can these two teams run up on $600 million in combined payroll before spring training's out? How would Bud Selig pocket all that revenue-sharing money? Will he have to buy a new coat?
February 17, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Alex Rodriguez is a Yankee, and his timing is awful. It wasn't two weeks ago the Rangers had a little song-and-dance routine that named him their captain after the botched attempt to get a trade done that would have sent him to Boston. Alex said the right things: "This is kind of like a double crowning for myself and my family. I feel very, very excited and very honored; one, at being recognized as the MVP of the American League and representing the Texas Rangers team, and almost equally important, if not more important, to be named the captain of the Texas Rangers and Mr. Hicks' team and Buck Showalter's team and John Hart's team." And he started to break out the lines the lines we'd heard in Seattle: "I definitely hope I'll be here for at least seven years and hopefully I'll be knocking on Mr. Hicks' door and asking to do a little renegotiation to play here into my 40s." In accepting a trade to the Yankees, Rodriguez makes a liar out of himself. Back when he was a free agent, he said this: "I would like to sign with another team and help dethrone the Yankees--they've won too much already."
February 12, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Last week's column got some fine feedback. Let's get right to it:
"I'm a little confused by the venom directed at the Cubs over their (admittedly farcical) attempt to pretend they're not simply scalping their own tickets. If they were honest about what they were doing, would it really be that bad? Airlines do similar things with their tickets - they charge more for some tickets (last minute purchases) and less for others (Saturday night stayovers) because they know that business travelers will pay more than family vacationers. Why shouldn't baseball clubs also price discriminate?"
-- SC
The problem everyone has with the Cubs isn't that they're selling their own tickets for more, it's something else entirely: 1) They're breaking the law for profit; 2) They're doing it for the express purpose of avoiding revenue sharing with other teams. The second one seems petty compared to the first. That the Tribune Company would construct a giant scheme to scalp their own tickets illegally--with a law on the books that says "Don't do what you're about to do"--because it would make them money is appalling. On the spectrum of crime, it's not as if they're serving poisoned milk to school-children who don't subscribe to the Tribune, but it's still pretty heinous.
February 3, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Not long ago, a Chicago judge tossed out a lawsuit against the Cubs, who had set up their own company to scalp their tickets. They'd done so on the grounds that (essentially) by being two parts of the same company, it wasn't like it was the same company doing it, as prohibited by the law. Explanations readers suggested for that finding ran from stark judicial incompetence all the way to the Tribune Company getting one of those Wrath of Khan creatures into the judge's ear somehow.
Meanwhile in the gray, gray, gray state of Washington (contrary to our reputation, it's only rained a couple of times this winter: October-December, then it snowed, December-January, then it snowed again, then January through today), where local government isn't quite as corrupt as Chicago but is racing to catch up, judicial insight flared.
January 27, 2004
by Derek Zumsteg
Aaron Boone hurt his ACL playing basketball on Monday, which could mean that he's out for the season. His contract isn't guaranteed if he plays basketball, which he did, so the Yankees aren't going to pay him his full salary, which they shouldn't. It may be a different situation if it's a minor tear and he'll be healthy for spring training in less than 30 days, though, so we'll have to wait and see. (I can't express the jolt of joy I just felt typing "spring training in less than 30 days," by the way--only a month of this seemingly interminable purgatory remains, where I'm forced to watch whatever my wife has found on one of the 80 different home improvement channels DirecTV was kind enough to cram into my package.) If it's minor and he'll miss a little time, the Yankees might decide that 90% of Boone is worth 100% of the deal he signed (though that seems difficult to justify). But more likely they're going to set fire to his contract and then mail him the ashes. Boone at $5.75 million for a year was high when he signed it, and considering comparable signings this offseason (Adrian Beltre was the only close signing, and he's way younger, though BP's PECOTA forecasts have Boone hitting better in 2004, while others like Scott Spiezio came much cheaper). The Yankees might just even call do-over and see what Boone will take, now that almost everyone else has signed their third basemen and are probably not going to offer Boone anything close to what he was scheduled to receive.
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