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Lies, Damned Lies column archives.

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March 8, 2006

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Wrap-up

by Nate Silver

Nate finishes up his PECOTA-driven look at prospects with a few rankings, and some final thoughts.

March 3, 2006

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Part Four

by Nate Silver

Nate turns to PECOTA's analysis of young pitchers.

February 24, 2006

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Any Such Thing?

by Nate Silver

A closer look at the validity of one of BP's best-known theories.

February 22, 2006

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part Three

by Nate Silver

PECOTA now turns its attention to the best infield prospects in the game.

February 15, 2006

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part Two

by Nate Silver

Nate continues his PECOTA-based prospect evaluation by looking at young first basemen and outfielders.

February 8, 2006

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part One

by Nate Silver

Nate introduces a method of evaluating prospects with PECOTA, and begins his tour around the minors by examining the most promising young catchers.

November 22, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Defending Jeffrey

by Nate Silver

The Marlins are undertaking another fire sale, but as Nate argues, this one can be justified by the numbers.

October 19, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds

by Nate Silver

Where does Monday's NLCS Game Five rank among recent postseason comebacks?

October 12, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: A Mulligan on Guzman

by Nate Silver

Nate revisits his earlier thoughts on Cristian Guzman being an offseason bargain.

September 28, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Beaten Down by PECOTA

by Nate Silver

Nate takes a look at those players who outperformed their PECOTAs by the most, and those who didn't come close to their projections.

September 22, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: A New Look at Aging

by Nate Silver

Nate uses Joe Crede and poker as points of departure to investigate when position players peak.

September 15, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: The Hometown Discount

by Nate Silver

Legitimate small-market teams are at a disadvantage when it comes to competitive bidding for players. Here's one way to even the playing field when it comes to the ones they develop.

September 7, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: The Tiger Plan, Revisited

by Nate Silver

Nate revisits a column from last year, and updates it with some startling new economic findings.

August 25, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Valuing Draft Picks

by Nate Silver

All draft picks have a value that can be quantified. Using some of the tools he employed last time out, Nate takes a crack at doing just that.

August 18, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Running down SOB

by Nate Silver

Is there some way to account for base running in a player's on-base percentage, creating a speed-adjusted OBP? Of course there is.

August 1, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: The Manny Non-Deal

by Nate Silver

After all the hype, Manny Ramirez stayed in Boston. Would trading him have made economic sense for the Red Sox? Nate Silver breaks it down.

July 28, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating the Trade Bait

by Nate Silver

As we approach the trading deadline, the names are flying fast and furious. But it's not clear what teams could expect to get from some of the players who are rumored to be on the market. Leave it to Nate to break it down.

July 13, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Book Review, Scout's Honor

by Nate Silver

Nate Silver weighs in with an in-depth book review of Bill Shanks' "Scout's Honor" and its look at the Atlanta Braves' organizational philosophy.

July 6, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Forecasting the Future: Internationalization

by Nate Silver

Nate continues to forecast the future by tracing the influx of Latin American baseball players, and what we can expect about their numbers going forward.

June 29, 2005

Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: Lee & Albert

by Nate Silver

Nate Silver looks into the "Derrek Lee for Triple Crown" debate, and discovers Lee might not be the best candidate to pull it off, after all.

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