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March 25, 2004
by Will Carroll
For all the criticism that the Devil Rays take--deservedly--for their on-field misadventures, they do medhead well. Over the past three seasons, no one has done it better. How can a team be so bad in most areas and so good in another? The simple answer is commitment. At some point, the Rays management decided that losing players to the DL was unacceptable. With trainers Jamie Reed (now of the Texas Rangers) and Ken Crenshaw and team doctors James Andrews and Koco Eaton, the Devil Rays did the medical equivalent of signing Alex Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez. From the simple to the technical, the Devil Rays' medical staff has become second to none. It shows. While their dollars lost to DL stats are skewed by the fact that they don't spend many dollars, they were among the best in days lost to the DL. The question is, do they get enough advantage from what seems to be their one area of excellence? For now, the answer is no. Keeping mediocre-at-best players healthy only keeps a team from plumbing the depths of replacement level.
March 24, 2004
by Will Carroll
The biggest question mark on the Angels' postseason hopes is the back of Vladimir Guerrero. He's the new poster boy for trunk and core strengthening, coming out of a specialized program to counteract the effects of a disc problem. Like Ivan Rodriguez before him, Guerrero worked hard and showed no signs of any recurrence. He's been wearing a brace throughout spring training, but it's merely precautionary. The worst-case scenario is a recurrence which could be treated through similar conservative therapy or surgery. The downside given his value isn't that great. The biggest actual concern is Troy Glaus. His shoulder, repaired in the off-season, might force him across the diamond. That slot is now held down by Erstad, who's better off in center according to pretty much everyone not employed by the Angels. For now, Garret Anderson, who has a bum right shoulder, takes center field and faces a situation similar to Bernie Williams' last season. The injury causes Anderson trouble both throwing and extending his arms and could eat into his power slightly. Anderson moved over to make room for Guerrero and Guillen. Yes, Virginia, it is possible to have too much talent sometimes.
March 22, 2004
by Will Carroll
Hiring a state-of-the-art General Manager does nothing to change a team's health.
Or does it? Is there any evidence that teams like Oakland, Toronto, and Boston suffer less injuries? Is being medically state-of-the-art different than being front-office smart? It's a good question, and impossible to answer completely. Due to the hidden nature of most of the data, we're left looking at imperfect measures like Days Lost to DL and Dollars Lost to DL. In these, there is simply too much luck and the data is too easily skewed.
When the Dodgers lost Darren Dreifort and Kevin Brown in the same season, they doomed themselves to the bottom of the Dollars Lost charts even if the entire team had been healthy. There's an argument that more progressive management never would have given those contracts to those players, but the Yankees are always at risk with the big-money players they have at, well, every position.
March 19, 2004
by Will Carroll
Enough debate. Let's just go ahead and put Leo Mazzone in the Hall of Fame. Coaches of all sorts are criminally unrepresented in Cooperstown, so Mazzone's decade of instruction in Atlanta is as good a start as any. While Mazzone may only be teaching what he learned from his coach, Johnny Sain, I don't think Sain would mind. Each year, the question is asked how the Braves will overcome the loss of this pitcher or that pitcher. We look at a bunch of no-names and retreads in the bullpen and through his alchemical abilities, Mazzone and manager Bobby Cox end up in the playoffs again. This year, let's not debate--Leo Mazzone is the best pitching coach inside the game, bar none.
What will Mazzone work with this year? Once again, he's asked to overcome the loss of talent as Greg Maddux has moved on. Only John Smoltz is left from the core of the Braves dynasty. Instead of Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Smoltz terrorizing hitters, the Braves will send out Hampton, Ortiz, and...Jaret Wright?
March 18, 2004
by Will Carroll
The Royals head into the season with four lefties potentially in the rotation, definitely an oddity. From a health perspective, does this mean anything? Digging into the data, the answer is a simple "no" with the usual caveat of small sample size. Across age spectrums, lefties and righties tend to be within a few percentage points of each other in risk. At times lefties are higher, and at others, righties take the lead. The differences are near random and point to this as something that Royals fans can ignore.
What the Royals cannot ignore is their continuing downtrend when it comes to their medhead stats. They were near the bottom in days lost do the DL in 2003, and were saved by their budget from being near the bottom in dollars lost. It always strikes me as penny-wise and pound-foolish when teams operating under real or imagined budget constraints don't do more to make sure that the money they're spending stays on the field.
March 16, 2004
by Will Carroll
A change last year from long-time trainer Kent Biggerstaff to a new staff makes it difficult to assess with statistical certainty, but many of the more bizarre medical stories last season came from Pittsburgh. Whether it was the 'sudden discovery' of an injury to Jason Bay or the saga of Brandon Lyon's shoulder, the Pirates' medical staff raised questions around the league. Coming into the 2004 season, the Pirates will be facing the same challenges. Most of their offense last year was expected to come from the bats of Brian Giles and Jason Kendall. While Kendall remains, his name continues to come up in trade talks. Giles was dealt for, among others, Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, two players with significant injury concerns. While contention in the NL Central probably isn't possible in '04, health could be the difference between being bad and being the Tigers.
March 15, 2004
by Will Carroll
There's a number of ways to indicate the bipolar nature of this team, but looking above you'll see that there's one big problem that the White Sox face heading into 2004: not enough innings on the board. The bullpen is again supposed to be a strength of the club, but Guillen is again an open question. He at least should have a healthy bunch this season, assuming he doesn't tax them when his starters aren't able to go as deep as he's expecting. PECOTA doesn't have high hopes for Shingo Takatsu, but at least this pen is deep. In fact, instead of looking for the innings in the rotation, this is where Guillen should be looking. If he could overcome 'the book' and start using this deep and potentially very effective pen for longer stretches, he'd be placing his team in a much better position to win.
March 12, 2004
by Will Carroll
Every March, there's some college basketball team that climbs on the back of some player and makes a run deep into the tournament. It happens nearly every year and probably always has, but it's burned into my memory with the Kansas Jayhawks' championship run behind Danny Manning. Now known as "Danny and the Miracles," Manning simply carried an inferior team to the top. Baseball has similar runs from time to time--Orel Hershiser's amazing run through the 1988 season comes to mind. But as the Giants essay in BP04 shows, General Manager Brian Sabean and Assistant General Manager Ned Colletti are expecting more from Barry Bonds, even as he becomes less likely to be able to deliver. Bonds' homers may defy gravity, but there's a point where his body will no longer be able to defy age.
March 10, 2004
by Will Carroll
This team is in trouble. Why? You might notice a load of lights there in the pitching staff. Even the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco Field might not be enough to keep runs off the board if the M's are forced to scramble all year for healthy arms. With swirling rumors about injuries, nightlife, and various other explanations, Freddy Garcia simply hasn't performed the last two seasons. There's a consistent track between his K rate and his velocity; as he fatigues, he loses effectiveness. Garcia needs to drastically increase his pitch efficiency to have the kind of year he desperately wants in his contract season.
March 9, 2004
by Will Carroll
As they did last year, the Marlins will need two ingredients to brew up another batch of Fish Fever: pitching and luck. Jack McKeon's lucky cigar burned bright through the off-season after beating back Dusty's magic toothpick, but does Ole Jack still have some luck left? Ironically it was some bad luck that turned around the Marlins season; there's a much better and more thorough description in the Marlins chapter of BP2004, so I'll spare myself some typing here. Beckett's minor elbow problem, though greatly exaggerated at the time, did allow him to stay fresh enough to do yeoman's work in the playoffs. He may just be the guy you don't recognize in baseball's television spots, but Beckett possesses electric stuff when healthy. Beckett is still young and has not faced a full season's workload in his career, so his yellow is well earned. Add in a horrid attrition rate from PECOTA and Beckett borders on a red light. He's precisely the type of pitcher you want on your team when you have a deep rotation.
March 8, 2004
by Will Carroll
Are these Rangers any more than a placeholder in someone's memory? Probably not. Deserting the plan that tried to build a team around the game's best young player, the team now is in an odd transition between John Hart and Grady Fuson. It has young and old, good and bad, durable and fragile. Acquisitions Brian Jordan and Brad Fullmer both come in limping. The injuries are partially responsible for their new lockers, allowing them to fit under a pre-flexible salary structure and possessing enough upside to hope for comeback seasons. Fullmer will be challenged to come back from a dreadful patellar tendon rupture, but he should get plenty of rest in the DH slot. Fullmer also never relied on speed, so losing a step isn't a terrible loss. Jordan, on the other hand, is almost on his last legs. While his patellar tendon problem was not as serious as Fullmer's, the loss of a step or three affects what athletic talents Jordan was once able to use. He has failed several required tests this spring, so the prognosis is decidedly cloudy. Hiding him at DH, even occasionally, is unlikely with Fullmer, Teixeira, and eventually Adrian Gonzalez in the mix.
March 5, 2004
by Will Carroll
The Indians are not only one of the top medhead teams around, but also one of the best-organized front offices. From their pioneering use of databases to the way they have dealt with the Kaz Tadano situation, this franchise is first-rate. My sidekick on Baseball Prospectus Radio, Scott McCauley, is a big Tribe fan. Often, he'll look like a dog that's been kicked when we discuss the Indians, but I keep telling him that things are looking up. As the dawn of hope starts to light the horizon, it can appear very dark. Even in the AL Central, that lineup isn't going to cause a lot of fear, and the rotation has a ton of question marks. Still, as Rob Neyer pointed out, this team could sneak up on people. They won't be the Yankees, Red Sox or even the A's, but in the AL Central, they don't need to be. If they sneak into the playoffs some time soon...well, we all know how to play craps, right?
March 4, 2004
by Will Carroll
It was nice to watch the team play as I wrote the Team Health Report. It should be, if not successful, at least more interesting to watch the Mets in 2004. As the team moves away from a Phillips Era that led to one World Series and much woe, and into what could probably be best described as the Wilpon Era, the team begins to turn over what was an old, fragile lineup.
It's an accepted, but not always true, tenet that younger teams are healthier. Clearly, young pitchers are more at risk in terms of workload, but in fact, there are significant changes in the body over the normal range of ages in a baseball career. Young players tend to have more tears and trauma, while older players tend to have problems of muscles and bone. Like most things, there are too many factors involved to say that there is any one rule. Team health, like players, is very individual.
The two yellows at the top of the rotation aren't terribly concerning to me. Both Leiter and Glavine have operated for the last several years as "crafty left-handers," rarely having problems even when taxed. Leiter especially recognizes the dangers of Dallas Green-style workloads, having the scars to prove it. Pitchers of this age are already nearly singular and have to be special to make it this far. There's a point where the aches and pains destroy their effectiveness and it usually comes in a hurry.
March 3, 2004
by Will Carroll
So, with no discernible plan and playing in the toughest division in baseball, can this team at least stay healthy? Over the past three seasons, the medhead numbers have not been kind to the Orioles. In addition to questions surrounding the death of Steve Bechler, the Orioles medical staff has had a difficult time with injuries. Injuries to players like Segui, B.J. Surhoff, Chris Richard, and Omar Daal leave them in the bottom quartile in most measures. Once again, the top three teams in the AL East trump the Orioles, and Tampa Bay is fast becoming a medhead team, led by their top-notch staff.
February 29, 2004
by Will Carroll
Now that the ball is gone and Jamaal The Goat is next in line for explosive therapy, the Cubs may be in line for a World Series win that would finally end all the curse talk. Despite Joe Sheehan's protestations, most Cubs fans think all that stands between them and October glory is the Astros and cruel, cruel fate.
Despite the best work of PECOTA, many still see the rotation as something akin to the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, or choosing from amongst five recent Playmates. To opponents, it's pick your poison; to fans, it's a matter of personal taste with no bad choice. Only Clement, surprisingly, avoids the yellow light. Without giving too much away from Saving the Pitcher, Clement's mechanics are extremely good. If you want one key, watch how his glove stays steady over his plant foot.
Wait... Prior and Maddux have among the purest mechanics that motion capture has, well, captured. Why the yellow on those two? The answer is age. For Prior, he's crossing the injury nexus after the heaviest per-outing workload of his career last season. For Maddux, he's in a rare age bracket, one where there's not much of a sample size. Maddux had a few minor injuries last season, but he's hardly overworked in any sense. The problem with any system of prediction is in capturing the outliers. The Cubs have two of the most extreme on one staff. Cautionary yellows hold, but these two aren't your average yellow-light players.
February 28, 2004
by Will Carroll
Staring down the "Evil Empire" won't be easy if part of the Rebel Alliance is banged up, broken, or otherwise in close proximity to Jim Rowe. While Theo Epstein has been bringing state-of-the-art ideas to the front office, he's also been adjusting the risk tolerance of the organization. If one of the basic tenets of Moneyball-friendly organizations is getting the most bang for the buck, then watching any of those bucks sit on the shelf is waste. While the Red Sox could be wasteful with their revenue stream, they aren't.
The key to the team is, of course, Pedro. Providing more than a third of the PECOTA projected VORP for this staff is pretty amazing considering the five-deep quality. But just as it's been the case for the last few years, this team can only go as far as Pedro takes them. Pedro is watched more closely than any other pitcher, and the continuing focus on preparing his body to pitch makes Chris Correnti one of the real up-and-coming trainers in the business. New manager Terry Francona wasn't known for a light touch with pitchers in his Philly gig, but this is Francona v2.0.
If Pedro can do what he did last year, the Red Sox will have more than a fighting chance in baseball's version of Spy vs. Spy. Pedro gets a yellow light based on injury history, but honestly, he's much less likely than last year to come up lame.
February 26, 2004
by Will Carroll
Season one in the Great American Ballpark wasn't what the Reds had hoped for. While the team flailed on the field, the front office suffered through its own turmoil, and too many fans came to the park dressed as empty seats. Yet looking at the lineup above, we see many of the same names we saw last year. The Reds may have the least turnover of any team in the NL.
Last season, I thought the Reds would have a shot at the NL Central crown. Oops. Instead, injuries once again tore down the team's chances as more than half the starters were on the DL at one point near the end of the season. Instead of what could have been an historically good outfield, two-thirds of that trifecta spent the better part of the season on the DL, and the other turned into a modern Dave Kingman. Was that a fluke, or is that what the Reds can expect this season? For the medical staff of the Reds, this could be considered a make-or-break season.
February 24, 2004
by Will Carroll
If Joe Torre gets to write the above lineup on his card 130 times this season and gets 30 starts from each of his five starters, it will be a long season in Boston, but the odds of this happening look more like Powerball than baseball. I'll be interested to see if any other team has as many red lights this season. It's odd to see, but the most recent addition to the team--the misplaced third baseman--looks like the best bet for a healthy season.
February 18, 2004
by Will Carroll
Does health really matter to a team that stinks? To most teams--notably last year's Tigers--the answer is yes. For the 2004 Brewers, the answer is mostly yes. The Brewers could lose more games if Geoff Jenkins goes down than if he's healthy, but it won't be the difference between making the playoffs or not. Instead, they need to keep the players that might be trade bait healthy and focus on not overtaxing their young players. The Brewers are selling hope this season, not contention, so the most important players that will see Miller Park in April will be Sheets and Spivey--for different reasons. Sheets remains the one player that could conceivably be on the next good Brewers team; Spivey is the likeliest trade bait.
February 13, 2004
by Will Carroll
The health of the "Big Three" starters is still the key to the success of the team. Hudson, Zito, and Mulder have put up big innings as relatively young pitchers, and should be moving into their best seasons. But only healthy pitchers win championships. For Hudson and Zito, they are as healthy and strong as ever. Their teammate, Mark Mulder, is the question mark, but please note that none of the questions are about his arm. Mulder returns from a fractured hip (femur, near the ball of the hip to be technical) suffered due to a faulty mound. Call it random or call it the fault of the Phillies' grounds crew, but there has never been a pitcher that has returned from this type of injury. While the A's and Mulder have insisted that he could have returned for last season's ALCS, there is no evidence to back this up. I don't want to say that Billy Beane, Larry Davis, or Mark Mulder were lying, because I simply have no reason to believe that, but I also know the A's often seek any competitive advantage they can. In the absence of objective knowledge that Mulder can pitch--either last October or this February--I'll continue to be cautious. It's only when Mulder takes the mound in spring training that we will know for sure. His yellow light is based on the lack of any comparable returns only. His arm should be well-rested if possibly slightly rusty for the 2004 season.
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