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or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library

May 27, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Revisiting PECOTA

by Nate Silver

How should we re-evaluate players who've started the year on a tear, or in a rut? As ever, PECOTA has an answer.

May 18, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Can A-Rod and Pujols Beat Aaron's Record?

by Nate Silver

Nate Silver creates a Favorite Toy for the 21st century with PECOTA's help to test two superstars' chances at breaking the all-time home-run record.

May 11, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: The Graying of the Game

by Nate Silver

Before jumping to conclusions about the effects of the new testing policy on offensive levels, consider how demographic shifts have impacted the player pool.

May 4, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Introducing ORVY

by Nate Silver

When should a team employ one-run strategies rather than play for a big inning?

April 27, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Does Size Matter?

by Nate Silver

An e-mail from Will Carroll causes Nate Silver to investigate the historical relationship between body type and performance.

April 20, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: BABIP, Again

by Nate Silver

Upon further review, Nate wants to revise last week's conclusion.

April 13, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Change-ups and BABIP

by Nate Silver

Knuckleballers are one class of pitchers who appear to exhibit some control over the results of balls put in play. They may not be the only ones.

April 7, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: Looking Back at the Market

by Nate Silver

Nate Silver breaks down the long-term deals handed out this season, PECOTA-style.

March 30, 2005

2005--Setting the Stage: Steroids

by Nate Silver

They've dominated the offseason. How will the steroid issue affect this year?

March 29, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Projects the NL

by Nate Silver

The Phillies, Cardinals and Giants rise to the top of their divisions in PECOTA's eyes.

March 21, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Projects the American League

by Nate Silver

Nate's got a look at how PECOTA sees the American League shaking out, and there are some surprises to discuss.

January 6, 2005

Lies, Damned Lies: How Do You Rate Relief?

by Nate Silver

Goose Gossage's failure to make it into Cooperstown got Nate thinking, how do you decide which relievers are Hall of Famers?

November 11, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: Superstars, All-Stars and Busts

by Nate Silver

Jason Bay and Bobby Crosby have received a considerable honor from the Baseball Writers Association of America. What happened to the 116 players who came before them?

November 4, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: Fresh Blood

by Nate Silver

Despite the recent recycling of Charlie Manuel and Mike Hargrove, organizations are getting better about finding new candidates for managerial jobs.

October 27, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: Being on the Brink

by Nate Silver

Like 26 teams before them, the Cardinals find themselves down 3-0 in a best-of-seven series. Just how likely is a comeback?

October 21, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: Comparables

by Nate Silver

With the postseason just a rumor in Chicago, Nate takes the time to address an important PECOTA question.

October 14, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: Using the Golden Run Ratio

by Nate Silver

Can Nate Silver break down the most common managerial dilemma in the game--the decision to replace a starter with a less-effective reliever? Of course he can.

October 7, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: So You Think You Know Baseball?

by Nate Silver

A stroll through the most interesting performances of 2004.

October 6, 2004

Playoff Prospectus: Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

by Nate Silver

These teams meet in the first round for the fourth time in eight years. Will this matchup turn out any differently than the first three did?

September 29, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies: A Hall of Famer

by Nate Silver

Barry Larkin plans to come back for the 2005 season, delaying his candidacy for the Hall of Fame by another year. Should he get in once eligible?