 indicates Baseball Prospectus Premium content, and  indicates Baseball Prospectus Fantasy content.
You can also view archives
or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library
July 27, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
Maybe it's never going to end.
Maybe, in the winter of 1990, in the back room of a bar just outside of the
city limits, Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz sat down and made a deal, never
quite noticing that their co-conspirator had a tail and lit their cigars by
snapping his fingers. ("Ultra-small lighter from Japan," he
claimed.)
Maybe the Atlanta Braves are going to make every postseason from now until the
Rapture.
I wrote the Braves off this season, figuring that the cumulative talent drain
since the end of 2002, coupled with the improvement by the Phillies, was
finally going to be too much. It was an amazing run, winning a division title
in 12 straight completed seasons, but all good things had to come to an end.
They'd turned over an entire rotation in two years, never really solved the
corner infield problems that had plagued them since moving Chipper
Jones to the outfield, and watched two of the five best players in
the NL last year move to the AL East. Their corporate ownership continued to
Wal-Mart the payroll, and the farm system wasn't nearly as productive as it
had been in the 1990s.
I was working with incomplete information. I didn't know about the 1990
meeting, and a contract signed with an all-too-warm pen, and the eventual
destination of two souls.
July 26, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
From a performance-analysis standpoint, the Snakes have been an easy target
because of their affection for older players. It's not at all surprising that
a team with a roster as old as the Diamondbacks has collapsed; old age has
been a big factor in the 2004 disappointment of their AL counterparts, the Mariners.
The problem is that the team's older players are its best players. Johnson,
40, might win his sixth Cy Young Award this year. Steve
Finley, 39, leads the team in games, home runs and slugging and is
the most-sought-after position player in the trade market. Luis
Gonzalez, whose left elbow is mostly theoretical at this point, is
hitting .261/.377/.501, although he's about a week away from shutting himself
down for the season so he can undergo Tommy John surgery.
July 23, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
With the trade deadline a bit more than a week away, speculation about who's
going where and for whom is at its annual peak. It's a great time to be a
baseball fan, what with more than half the teams in the game harboring at
least some hope of reaching the postseason, and a mix of perennial contenders
and low-profile upstarts chasing playoff spots.
Many of those teams have glaring holes that have to be repaired, and part of
the fun of July is guessing how those holes will be filled. Here are four
trades—not trade rumors, but actual trades, coming from between my ears—that
make sense for contenders and rebuilders alike, and which could change the
course of baseball's races.
July 21, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
I'm fascinated by beginnings and endings, so the chapters in this book that
detail the earliest days of the game, and how the record-keeping developed,
are page-turners for me. The way in which the decisions to track particular
events in a game reflected the personal beliefs of those doing the collecting
was a new concept for me, as was the descriptions of how people 120 years ago
gobbled up statistics the same way rabid seamheads and fantasy players do
today. There are quotes in the first 30 pages of the book that could easily
have shown up on our pages today. For example:
'The best player in a nine is he who makes the most good plays in a
match' [Chadwick] wrote, 'not the one who commits the fewest errors.' In other
words Chadwick preferred range--the ability to field more balls overall--to
avoiding the occasional error.
Somewhere, Jose Valentin is smiling.
July 20, 2004
by Joe Sheehan and Gary Huckabay
After not getting to a game for the first seven weeks of the season, I've been
living at the ballpark since Memorial Day weekend. That continued on Monday night,
as I took in the Angels/Indians game with some of the guys who have been
kicking my butt in AL Tout Wars this
season. Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal, who is actually working
on a book about fantasy, was in town and dragged me, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire and Matt Berry of Rotoworld down to Anaheim to see the classic
Kaz Tadano/Aaron Sele match-up.
Obviously, I love baseball, and enjoy watching games whenever and wherever I
can. But a night like this one--or like last month, when I got to see an
Angels/Dodgers game with Jonah Keri, Rich Lederer, and Brian Gunn--is hard to beat.
Watching a ball game while talking baseball for three hours with people who
know and love the game might not be heaven, but you get a better view and St.
Peter gets a little bit jealous.
July 16, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
The Phillies are the best team on paper, but the worst of the contenders based
on their underlying performance so far this year. The Mets and Braves, thought
to be running on the fumes of recent contenders and making the transition to
new eras, have been the best teams in the division per the Adjusted Standings Report, while the Phils
and Marlins have come in behind them.
Separated by two games entering the All-Star break, there's not much to choose
from among these squads. They could end up giving us the most entertaining
race in baseball this year, not because they're all good, but because they're
all flawed. The Phils have rotation issues and a combustible manager who has
already banished his best center fielder to the minors. The Mets have serious
OBP questions outside of their lineup core, along with a rotation that is old, not big on missing bats, and likely to regress down the stretch after pitching out of their minds in the first half. The Marlins are finding out what happens when the top of their order is just a little bit worse. The Braves have just hung around long enough to get Marcus Giles back and
Rafael Furcal back in business.
July 15, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
So, I guess I need to open with an explanation...
Tuesday's column was written Monday night, before the 2004 All-Star Game had been
played. I thought it might be fun to do a diary for the game in advance of it,
using the same format I used in '03 and
'01,
and writing it as if I was doing so during the game.
I did such a good job of selling it--or such a poor job of selling the
satire--that I got a bunch of e-mails wondering what the hell I was talking about.
My fault for not being over-the-top enough, and for talking Jonah out of a
disclaimer atop the original piece. If you were confused or didn't enjoy the
piece, please accept my apology.
With the real All-Star Game out of the way--and playing for home-field
advantage for every World Series game for the rest of the millennium wouldn't
have saved that snoozer--it's time to look forward to the second half. This is
shaping up to be a tremendous stretch run, with four divisions pretty much too
close to call, and a National League in which 12 teams can consider themselves
playoff contenders. We have some great individual performances to watch, trade
talk is ramping up daily, and baseball has the stage to itself for a few
weeks.
So it's time for me to put it on the line and make my midseason calls. One
thing, before I get into all this: I have a stubborn streak, and I'm inclined
to believe that the evaluations I made in April still have merit. So for me to change a prediction takes a lot.
July 13, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
One of my favorite columns is my All-Star
Diary, where I watch the game and take notes as it happens, letting events
lead me where they may. Let's see what unfolds this year...
July 12, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
Why the heck is the Futures Game scheduled for Sunday afternoon, when MLB
games are still being played? I caught bits and pieces of yesterday's contest,
held at 3 p.m. Central at Houston's Minute Maid Field, but was too distracted
by the great finishes in Philadelphia and Boston to pay it too much mind.
Having missed three innings, I was never able to get fully into the game.
It's as if MLB wants to bury the Futures Game by putting it up against
regular-season games. Speaking mostly for myself, I would much rather the game
be, say, this afternoon, than have it be up against the last few games of the
first half. Having the Futures Game on Monday creates a practical issue--how to
have the Game, the All-Stars' batting practice, and the Home Run Derby in the
same place on the same day while selling tickets to either one or two
sessions--but that can be dealt with by either moving the Futures Game to a
different location or truncating the day's BP sessions.
The Home Run Derby is a turgid two hours that exists largely because no one
seems to know how to stop getting corporate sponsorship for it. Making the
Futures Game the centerpiece of All-Star Monday would make the day shine,
while giving the players in it a proper stage for their skills.
July 9, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
I can't recall exactly where I heard or read it--probably in multiple
places--but the catchphrase for the week is that X number of teams, where X is
in the low-20s, are within Y games, where Y is six or fewer, of a playoff
spot.
As of this morning, those figures are 20 and six. Twenty teams are within six
games of a playoff spot as of July 9.
Now, I shouldn't complain too much about this. It's positive press for
baseball, the kind of accurate reporting of the game's competitive balance
that shows that baseball isn't a wasteland in which four teams have a chance
to succeed and 26 act as a Greek chorus for them. Baseball provides great
races, the kind of thing that the NBA and NHL don't have, and that the NFL has
largely because its season is 1/10th the length.
Still, I can't help but have a problem with the sudden discovery that baseball
is competitive. After all, for years now I and others like me have been trying
to make the point, standing on soapboxes and street corners to argue against
the prevailing notion that MLB was hopelessly broken. Now, as if everyone
received the same talking points memo, lines that could easily have been
written by me or Derek Zumsteg are finding their way into beat writers'
columns and color mens' commentary.
July 8, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
I'd mentioned that when I returned from my week in Massachusetts, some things
took me by surprise. At the top of that list was the emergence of the St.
Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. In the eight days I was gone, the Cardinals
went 5-2 and took a 4 1/2-game lead in the division. Since then, they've gone
6-3, sweeping their last two series. As of this morning, the Redbirds have a
six-game lead that is the largest of any division leader.
The first thing you notice when digging into the Cards' performance: their
52-32 record is real. They're not getting lucky in run
elements, in their schedule, or by outplaying their runs scored and allowed.
They are benefiting from the Cubs and Astros underplaying their run elements
and their actual runs, but the Cardinals are just as good a team as their .619
winning percentage indicates.
July 6, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
McKeon chose Larkin over Bobby Abreu, a reasonable MVP candidate in a world that just gives Barry Bonds the lifetime achievement award. He chose Larkin over J.D. Drew, who's one of the only reasons to watch the Braves this year. Lyle Overbay appears on a lot of "snubbed" lists, and although I can forgive McKeon for not adding a fourth first baseman or third Brewer, Overbay clearly belongs ahead of Larkin.
As does Beltre. Regardless of whether I'd rather see the veteran I like over
the disappointment I have no attachment to, choosing Barry Larkin over any or
all of these players is a mistake. Based on the established criteria, and even
giving Larkin credit for his long and distinguished career, I can't see snubbing players like Beltre and Abreu in favor of Larkin.
Still, the All-Star selection process has become a paint-by-numbers one, as the player selections and the various roster requirements fill out the teams without requiring much input from the managers. Maybe we should be thankful to
McKeon for adding some spice to the process.
July 2, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
What do you do when you start believing in ghosts?
As I write this, the game has
been over for nearly 12 hours, and I still haven't found a way to put it into words. Last night's contest between the Yankees and Red Sox was about as great as regular-season baseball can be, with an ending that would get you laughed out of any fiction contest.
The greatness of our game was on display last night. There were exhibitions of
raw power by a Hall of Fame hitter like Manny Ramirez. There
was a mano-a-mano confrontation, replete with head games and consequences,
between Gary Sheffield and Pedro Martinez. There was jaw-dropping defense, including plays in consecutive innings that will probably be the two best plays anyone makes on a baseball field this
year. There was drama and decision-making, as each manager had to maneuver his
way out of difficult situations. There were 55,000 people hanging on every pitch for nearly four-and-a-half hours.
July 1, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
I'm still catching up from my trip to Massachusetts, the latter part of which was spent without much access to baseball information. Seeing the standings on Tuesday was a bit of a jolt. The Cardinals had a big lead in the NL Central? The Astros are in fifth? The Rangers are in first place? The Giants, too? How long was I gone, anyway?
There are some things I haven't had much chance to write about, and I'll get to many of those in a Friday notes column, which I'll write today while watching something like 13 hours of baseball. Man, I love getaway days.
Today, though, I want to write about the AL Central, or more specifically, the Chicago White Sox. Last night's 9-6 win over the Minnesota Twins pushed the Sox into sole possession of first place in the Central. The Sox have the best run differential in the division, the best offense in the league, and the most runs scored in MLB. Their pitching staff has been effective, with the fourth-best bullpen in the league supporting a ninth-ranked rotation. Much of the latter ranking is caused by the ineffective revolving door they've used in the No. 5 slot. Settling on Jon Rauch might have solved that problem, but the Sox instead chose to acquire Freddy Garcia from the Mariners.
June 30, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
I think The Blizzard Theory is ready for its closeup.
The Blizzard Theory states that any ballpark with an ad for Dairy Queen
somewhere on the premises is a great place to spend an evening. The theory
gained steam on Saturday, when I caught a Cape Cod League game at Guv Fuller
Field in Falmouth, Mass.
The league, perhaps best known as the source material for the cinematic epic
Summer Catch, is
a showcase circuit for college players, one which provides an opportunity for
scouts to watch potential draftees play games using wood bats. The league has
a long and distinguished list of alumni, and even as more summer leagues
geared towards collegians proliferate, it retains its place as the #1 summer
June 25, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
Astros trade Octavio Dotel, John Buck
and a million bucks for Carlos Beltran.
Just an absolute steal. Dotel is a very good reliever, but he's a reliever,
not a top-three center fielder with as complete a game as any player in
baseball. The Astros, who have been playing a shadow of Craig
Biggio in center field the past year and a half, actually may get
more runs out of this trade defensively than they gain offensively (Beltran
takes Jason Lane's playing time, with Biggio expected to move
to left and Lance Berkman moving to right).
Moreover, Beltran is a great patch for the Astros' long-standing balance
problems. As a switch-hitter who bats well from the left side, he makes the
team less susceptible to the righty-killers that the Cubs and Cardinals have
in both their rotations and bullpens.
June 24, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
One of the reasons we started Baseball Prospectus was to point out the biases
within the baseball industry that were affecting player evaluation. We've
worked hard to establish the ideas that great athletes don't necessarily make
great baseball players, that command is as important to pitching as throwing
hard is, and that hitters tend to follow a predictable career path.
We traded infallibility for a package of draft picks, though, so along the way
damaging biases have crept into our analyses, the same way that they did in
traditional evaluation. If performance analysis is going to continue to make
inroads as both a perspective for covering baseball and a decision-making tool
for management, its practitioners will have to understand these biases and how
they corrupt the process.
June 22, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
The Devil Rays are the biggest story in baseball.
(Yeah, it looks weird to me, too.)
The D-Rays have snapped off an 11-game winning streak, entirely against the
National League, and moved to within two games of .500, leaping into third
place in the AL East in the process. The Rays have scored 67 runs and allowed
37 during the streak, so it's fair to say that they've dominated their
opponents, although there's no way to win 11 in a row without outperforming
your Pythagorean projection.
The run prevention has been the key to the streak. I mentioned yesterday that
the Devil Rays' outfield had really been able to show its stuff while playing
in Petco Park last week. Jose Cruz Jr. has a Gold Glove on
his resume, Carl Crawford has a center fielder's range while playing left, and Rocco Baldelli is an above average center fielder with a good arm. The line about sweeping the Gold Glove awards may
have seemed like hyperbole--and Ichiro Suzuki's outsized
reputation makes a sweep unlikely--but I'd take any two of these guys over
Torii Hunter, and he's the only other Gold Glove holder still
playing outfield in the AL.
June 21, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
"It's pretty."
So says Sophia about Petco Park, which we both visited for the first time on
Saturday night. The park is located in downtown San Diego, and very much a part of the area. In fact, before the game
we traipsed over to Seaport Village and walked around, and the post-game
options for attendees make it possible to make a night out of a day at the
ballpark.
The most significant impression the park made on me was the size of the
outfield. Seeing it on television just doesn't do it justice. If Petco Park
doesn't have the most actual acreage between the infield and the fences--I
guess the really deep center field in some parks could give them more square
footage--the 400-foot distances to left-center and right-center fields make the
outfield look vast, almost as if a fourth outfielder would be needed to cover
the ground.
The way in which Petco's huge outfield affects the game was a big topic of
conversation on Saturday. Padres GM Kevin Towers, addressing an audience of
nearly 100 BP readers before the game, referenced the park's dimensions and
their effects on game play and team construction frequently in an hour-long
session. Towers was enthusiastic, forthright and informative, exactly what
you'd hope for from a speaker. His turn at the mike made the Ballpark Feed a
success.
June 18, 2004
by Joe Sheehan
Just as it did last year, trade season kicked off well before the July 31
deadline, with three teams making acquisitions designed to get them into
October, while another made perhaps the biggest gain of the day by trading
away a player.
The Mets and Astros started the day by swapping veterans. Houston traded right
fielder Richard Hidalgo to New York for right-handers
David Weathers and Jeremy Griffiths. The
'stros have been trying to deal Hidalgo almost since the day they signed him
to a four-year, $32-million contract after his monster 2000 season. For their
money, they got one comparable season (2003), one mediocre one (2001) and one
disaster (2002). This year, Hidalgo had a big April (.341/.364/.622) and then
fell apart, dropping to .256/.309/.412 at the time of the deal.
<< More
|
