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October 9, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Judging from my Inbox, I'm supposed to be upset because Fox dictated to MLB that the two LCS games last night would be played simultaneously, with one shown on the cable channel FX. I might have ranted about it a couple of years ago, but to be honest, this is a minor, understandable move. Afternoon baseball games during the week don't draw very good ratings and are difficult for fans in broad swaths of the nation to see. Even motivated fans on the west coast who might be able to shake free from work to catch a 5 p.m. start are pretty much screwed by a game at 1 p.m.
A lot of the frustration over various scheduling decisions is justifiable, because the decisions are driven primarily by television and often run counter to logic. However, neither Fox nor MLB can do anything about the fact that the continental United States spans four time zones. None of the solutions will placate everyone, so the one that allows the widest possible audience to watch the games is acceptable. Rest assured that if a similar conflict occurs next Wednesday, Game Six of the Red Sox/Yankees series will be played at 4 p.m. Eastern, clearing the night for the Cubs/Marlins Game Seven.
As it turns out, the Cubs solved yesterday's problem by about 6:15 Pacific time, pushing ahead of the Marlins 5-0 after two innings. Brad Penny didn't have much command and Sammy Sosa punished him for it with a three-run bomb to an el station somewhere in the Loop. Everything after that, including two Alex Gonzalez home runs (see? I told you he'd be a great player some day!), was gravy.
October 8, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Mark Grudzielanek made an early run at being this series' Jose Cruz Jr. with two poor efforts in the ninth inning, one mental, one physical. On the first, when he bobbled a Luis Castillo ground ball and never did tag Juan Pierre, I don't understand why he didn't throw to second base for the force play. He had to know he'd blown the tag--great call by Fieldin Culbreth--and in that situation you must get one out. Not doing so was critical, because there's a huge difference between two outs and two on, and one out and three on. The next play didn't get the attention, but it highlighted the Cubs' main problem coming into this series. Ivan Rodriguez hit a line drive past Grudzielanek that, had he just fallen down from where he stood, he might have caught and at least would have kept in the infield. The Cubs don't play defense well. It hurt them last night, and it's going to haunt them in every game of this series. Speaking of Rodriguez, when do you think word will get out that he can hit fastballs up and on the outside edge? Someone, somewhere, may wish to try a different approach. That, or kryptonite.
October 7, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Much will be made of the fact that this is the fourth straight season in which the A's lost in the Division Series, all of them in the final game. They've lost nine straight games in which they had a chance to eliminate their opponent, the kind of fact that can become an epitaph. I'm reluctant to make the leap from that fact to an indictment of the players' character, however, because these are successful people who, like all of us, are more than our work. The rush to brand the A's with all kinds of labels that assail their collective character is wrong. As you read what will be an avalanche of stories that glorify the Red Sox players and make the A's out to be chokers, remember that it's all media nonsense. The outcome of a baseball game, a series, or even multiple trips to the playoffs don't define a man's character, good or bad. The A's lost because they played baseball poorly at the wrong times. Is their baserunning a problem? It would seem so, but remember that this A's team allowed the fewest runs in the league and scored the sixth-fewest. They played a lot of close games, and if their baserunning was such a problem, it would stand to reason that it would have shown up in their record. The A's didn't just do this to themselves, however. They also lost because the Red Sox played good baseball.
October 5, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
If the shot of Ugueth Urbina tackling Ivan Rodriguez as Rodriguez holds up a baseball in triumph isn't on the front page of Sports Illustrated and every other sports publication next week, just fire all the editors. That was one of the single greatest pictures I've ever seen in sports, an amazing display of joy. Just remembering that whole sequence gives me chills as I sit here and write about it 12 hours later...the arc of the baseball looping into left field, as J.T. Snow tries to find second gear...Jeff Conine getting rid of the ball quickly...Rich Aurilia desperately waving Snow to the inside of home plate...the collision...Rodriguez tumbling back, gripping the baseball...Snow dropping his head to the plate in disappointment...Urbina diving onto his teammate... I'm not sure Rodriguez still isn't holding that baseball. He may show up with it in his hand on Tuesday. Heck, he may show up with it at his Hall of Fame induction.
October 4, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
The Giants deserved to lose.
I haven't written that kind of condemnation more than a couple of times in my life, but I have also never meant it more. The Giants played brutal baseball Friday afternoon, making poor decisions, executing routine plays poorly, and showing a complete inability to have good at-bats in game-critical situations.
In the wake of the loss, the focus is on Jose Cruz Jr., whose Little League drop of a fly ball in the 11th inning started the Marlins' game-winning rally. When I think of Cruz, though, I think of his at-bat in the top of the inning. The Marlins intentionally walked Neifi Perez to load the bases--no, I couldn't believe it, myself--and bring up Cruz down with the Marlins down 3-2 with one out. Cruz's mandate in that situation was clear: find a way to bring in an insurance run. He was facing Braden Looper, whose command had been shaky from the first batter he faced, and whose only out had been recorded on a sacrifice. Given the matchups and the skills of the players involved, it seemed certain that the Giants would add to their lead.
Cruz hacked away at the first pitch and missed, then took a 1-1 cookie--the Giants took more hanging breaking balls in this game than I thought imaginable--to fall behind before chopping a grounder to Derrek Lee, who calmly got the force at home. J.T. Snow then grounded to second, ending the rally. Twenty minutes later, bedlam ensured when a winning run that perhaps should have been a tying run crossed home plate.
October 3, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Ever watch a particular at-bat early in the game and know you're seeing the pivotal moment? That's how I felt in the third inning of yesterday's A's/Red Sox game. Down 5-0 after gift-wrapping four runs in the bottom of the second, the Sox picked up back-to-back doubles and a walk to cut the lead to 5-1 and place two runners aboard with one out. Todd Walker grounded to first, setting up a Barry Zito/Manny Ramirez battle. This was going to be it. Either the Sox were going to cut the lead to a manageable 5-3, with Ramirez atoning for his brutal misplay of Eric Byrnes' second-inning fly ball and Zito displaying the inconsistency that had dogged him throughout the year, or the A's were going to escape with a four-run lead and having turned back the Sox's attempt to recover from the second inning. When Ramirez flied out to left, the game felt over. It was. The Sox picked up just four singles the rest of the way, with Zito abusing every hitter in the lineup by changing speeds and wielding a Shelley Long-after-"Cheers" curveball.
October 2, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Sox fans, how's that 10 p.m. start working out for you?
I had no problem with MLB giving the A's a postseason home game at night for the first time since, well, maybe ever. That said, I do think the AL playoff structure as a whole is pretty ridiculous. The Yankees and Twins ended up with about 52 hours between the end of their first game and the beginning of their second. The A's and Sox will have about 13 hours. That's not fair, and it's the direct result of letting TV considerations override common sense. You can give the A's a night game or you can give the Yankees and Twins the off day; you can't do both.
As so often happens with things Selig, whatever could go wrong, did. The A's and Sox played 12 innings in a shade under five hours, ending just before 3 a.m. EDT. Worse still for Sox fans, the game ended in defeat, as Ramon Hernandez laid down a perfect two-out, bases-loaded bunt to drive home the winning run, this after the Sox had blown a ninth-inning lead.
Those who stuck it out saw an exciting ballgame. It wasn't the much-anticipated pitchers' duel, and it wasn't exactly a great game, but it was exciting. Todd Walker and Erubiel Durazo traded roundhouse punches for most of the night, with each player coming up a hero against a southpaw. The two starting pitchers were off their game, combining to allow six runs on 16 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work. Pedro Martinez wasn't himself, striking out just three batters and allowing four walks.
October 1, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Gardenhire handled an awful situation well and got good performance from pitchers he probably doesn't want to be leaning too heavily on. Now, he has a one-game lead and the certainty that he can bring back Santana in Game Four. It helped that Bernie Williams' Corpse was on display. While much of the post-mortem seems to be focusing on Alfonso Soriano's throw to the Fulton Fish Market on the same play, it was Corpse's brutal misplay of a Torii Hunter single that changed the game. We go through this every year with the Yankees. Maybe it's time to issue a public challenge of some sort, because the naked-emperor thing is getting out of hand. To hear Joe Morgan and Jon Miller--a combination I enjoy--go all Claude Rains when the Yankees display the defensive ability of Kuwait is ridiculous. It's as if they expect service time or postseason appearances to make plays, disregarding the fact that Williams hasn't been even an adequate center fielder in two years. He can't throw--as evidenced on the first run of the game, when he just missed gunning down Cristian Guzman at the pitcher's mound--and his diminished lateral range no longer makes up for a first step measured in geologic time.
September 30, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Conceding that I get excited about catching a Dominican League game on Spanish-language television in January, I am really pumped about this postseason. The first-round matchups are tremendous, there are an amazing number of great players in the postseason and I think every one of these teams can win the World Series. I'm predicting the Giants over the Red Sox, but I can honestly say that no outcome, not even the Marlins over the Twins, would surprise me. All of the following comes with the standard caveat: anything can happen in a short series between two good teams.
by Joe Sheehan
The line you can't stop reading in advance of this series is that the Yankees have dominated the Twins over the past couple of seasons, winning all 13 games between the two teams. Never mind that the Twins were winning back-to-back division titles, never mind that the Yankees didn't get as deep into last October as the boys from the Twin Cities did: that 13-0 is the statistic on everyone's mind right now.
Here's the problem: it's meaningless information. In fact, it's actively deceptive, and using that data to form an opinion on the Division Series matchup is wrongheaded.
First of all, forget about 2002. While baseball teams have more year-to-year continuity than teams in other sports--and these two rosters have been particularly stable--the idea that games played nearly 18 months ago will somehow provide insight into ones played this week is silly.
Moreover, the last time the Yankees and Twins faced each other was on April 21, 2003. How long ago was that? Shannon Stewart was a Blue Jay. Johan Santana was imprisoned in middle relief. Matt LeCroy was a benchwarmer. Four of the seven games were started by Joe Mays and Rick Reed, neither of whom will be anywhere near the mound in this series.
The Twins who take the field tomorrow will bear little resemblance to the ones who went 0-7 against the Yankees nearly a season ago. They're better at the plate and on the mound, and judging them as if they were that hapless bunch isn't analysis, it's laziness.
September 29, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Joe Sheehan offers up his picks for NL and AL MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year and sounds the call to vote in the Internet Baseball Awards (coming soon). Delve into the Monday edition of Prospectus Today for more.
September 28, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
I'm not a big fan of evaluating the character of individuals through their work, particularly when it comes to sports. I think we, as a culture, extrapolate far too much about people from the outcome of a bounce of a ball. That said, the Astros can't feel too good about themselves this morning; when you're tied with three games to play at home against one of the worst teams in the league, you'd like to think you could at least avoid getting eliminated in the quickest fashion possible. The Astros were blown out Friday night—down 9-1 after an inning and a half—and scored just two runs in yesterday's defeat. It was a disappointing performance by a team that had led the division for most of the second half, and which was set up to control its own destiny when the weekend began. However, if you want to judge the Astros, what's clear is that their collapse, and the Cubs' taking advantage of it, changes the Division Series. With Friday's rainout leading to Saturday's doubleheader, and the possibility of playing meaningful games Sunday and even Monday, the Cubs were looking at having to open the Division Series with Shawn Estes and not having their top two starters available until Game 3 at the earliest. Against the best-hitting team in the league, one loaded with right-handed power, that was a recipe for disaster. Having clinched, the Cubs can set Kerry Wood aside for Game One on Tuesday. With no playoff to play Monday, Carlos Zambrano is available to start Game Two, and Mark Prior can start Game Three Friday on four days' rest.
September 26, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Q: When are 93- and 90-win seasons not success?
A: When you're the Seattle Mariners.
By the standards of most teams in the baseball, and by the standards of their own history, the Mariners' last two years have been excellent ones. They've won 183 games, been in two pennant races, drawn three million people in both years, and made a good amount of money. The problem is that in neither season did the team make the playoffs, despite spending four months of each year in first place and having a pretty good lead over their rivals as late as August.
Let's focus just on this year. Where did things go wrong? On August 6, the Mariners were 69-43, and had a three-game lead on the A's in the AL West and over the Red Sox for the AL wild-card slot. From that day until today, the Mariners went 21-26, losing 10 games in the standings to the A's and seven to the Sox, being eliminated from any potential playoff spot last night. The Mariners had actually been treading water since June, when they peaked at 48-22 on June 18 with a win over the Angels.
September 25, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
See? THIS is why I don't go to more games:
Have you seen anything more fun (on a baseball field) than Billy Wagner vs. Barry Bonds today? --Jim Cole
Well, Jim, I wouldn't know, because I didn't see that epic matchup. While the Astros were clinging for dear life to their division hopes in yesterday's 2-1 win over the Giants, I was in Anaheim, watching the Dodgers...excuse me, the Mariners...go down like Peter McNeely against John Lackey and the Angels. I'm not complaining--I got to talk baseball for two hours with SABR's Stephen Roney and saw some very good pitching--but Jim's e-mail illustrates the opportunity cost of going to games in the satellite era.
I promised an analysis of the Mariners' fade for today; that's not coming until Friday. (Life Lesson No. 12: Never believe promises made after 2 a.m. Those of you 22 and over probably know this one already.) Today, it's all about the Marlins.
September 24, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
One of the weird things about this gig is that people who aren't familiar with BP or my work assume that I go to a lot of baseball games. I don't, actually. While I love live baseball, I also love my Extra Innings package and the 10-15 games a night it brings into my home. Given a choice between attending one and watching 15, I often choose the lazier of two paths.
If anything, I've gotten worse about it with each passing season. I'll have to make a greater effort next season, maybe set a goal of N games or to catch one game of each series.
Last night, however, I dragged my sorry ass down to Anaheim to catch the Angels/Mariners game with BP's Jason Grady. I'd been wanting to see the Mariners, anyway (and will do so again today), because their repeat of 2002's second-half fade is an interesting story that I'd like to cover. More on that tomorrow.
September 22, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
The Detroit Tigers, who opened September by winning three of four from the Indians to make it appear that they would avoid baseball's all-time lists for incompetence, have reopened all those discussions by going 1-15 since that set, including an active nine-game losing streak. With a week to go, the Tigers have tied the American League record for losses in a season with 117, a mark set by the 1916 Philadelphia A's, the wreckage of a very good team that was scattered to the four winds by Connie Mack. (Think post-1997 Florida Marlins for the Wilson Administration.) They're just three losses from tying the all-time mark for defeats in a season, set by the 1962 New York Mets--a first-year expansion team--at 40-120. The Tigers also have a chance to be the first team since the 1935 Boston Braves (38-115) to not reach 40 wins in a full season. Can they get there? What is the most likely coda the Tigers will put on their long and dreary 2003?
September 19, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Nine days ago, the Twins were up against the wall. They'd dropped the first two games of a four-game series in Chicago, falling two behind the White Sox in the AL Central. They'd be sending their ace, Johan Santana, to the mound for the third game, but that wasn't without its perils--the heavily right-handed White Sox were slugging above .480 against southpaws. Even if the third game went their way, the Twins would be facing Esteban Loaiza, Cy Young contender, in the fourth game. They seemed certain to leave Chicago with a hill to climb, the only question was how big. Now, nine days ago seems like nine years ago. Last night's 5-3 win over the Sox was the fifth game in a row the Twins had taken from their chief rival, and it extended their AL Central lead to 3.5 games over the Sox. With seven of their last nine games against the Tigers, and a magic number of seven, it seems like just a matter of time before the Twins become--you taking notes, Bud?--back-to-back AL Central champions.
September 16, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
The last 13 days of the season kick off in a big way tonight, with two series that pit teams locked in head-to-head battles for playoff spots.
White Sox at Twins
With just a half-game separating the two teams, this is effectively the first round of the playoffs, a nearly must-win three-game set for both. The Twins were on the brink just seven days ago after dropping the first two in Chicago, but bounced back to win behind Johan Santana (not a surprise) and against Esteban Loaiza (big surprise).
The Twins won't have their best pitcher, Santana, who started last night against the Indians. That leaves them one bullet down against a very good offense. Working for them is that they'll be starting two right-handers who can be tough on righties in Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse, against what is still a fairly right-handed Sox lineup. Watch Radke tonight: he threw 126 pitches in his last start, and Keith Woolner's PAP3 research indicates that pitchers who exceed 121 pitches can see some negative effects over their next three starts.
September 15, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
Just before 1:00, I checked the program schedule and just about collapsed from the shock: no Game of the Week. Are you kidding me? Two weeks to go in the season, half the teams in baseball still chasing playoff spots, terrific matchups like White Sox/Red Sox and Braves/Marlins on the schedule, a nation of couch potatoes sitting in front of their televisions, and MLB takes this opportunity to fold its tent? I know it was likely Fox's decision, predicated on not wanting to compete with either broadcast college football or its own Fox Sports Net package of gridiron games. So what? It's MLB's job to choose a broadcast partner that will help it promote the game, and that means more than setting up stupid gimmicks for the All-Star Game. Abandoning the national stage at a time when its product should be at its most attractive isn't just stupid, it's corporate malfeasance. This can't be good for postseason ratings, either. What baseball should be doing is creating interest in the teams and players who will be taking the field beginning September 30. You want people getting excited about Barry Bonds and Mark Prior and Nomar Garciaparra now, so that when you stick their games in prime time next month, you have a greater chance of drawing an audience. If I'm understanding the schedule properly, there are no more over-the-air baseball games until the Division Series, which is one of the most bizarre, counterproductive, self-mutilating decisions I have ever seen.
September 12, 2003
by Joe Sheehan
I've yet to write much about the award races this season, save for some notes about Barry Bonds a couple of months back and a column about the NL Cy Young. It's a very interesting season in that all six major awards are under dispute, whether warranted or not, and in some cases there's considerable doubt about who the front-runner should be, even with less than three weeks to go in the season.
Because I got an e-mail this week dissecting the AL Cy Young situation, I'll take a stab at that one today.
When it comes to picking the best pitchers in the league. I look at two things: how much did you pitch, and how well did you keep runs off the board? I disregard the accounting categories of "wins," and "losses" because the statistics are misleading, a relic of a time when complete games accounted for nearly 100% of all starts and it actually made sense to assign whole wins and losses to starting pitchers.
With apologies to Mark Mulder, here are the five candidates for the AL Cy Young Award.
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