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or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library

July 18, 2012

Manufactured Runs: Getting Shifty Again

by Colin Wyers

BIS addressed one problem with their defensive metric that was making Brett Lawrie look better than he is.

July 17, 2012

BP Announcements: Playoff Odds Updated

by Colin Wyers

Some tweaks to the playoff odds.

June 24, 2012

BP Unfiltered: A More Honest Response to Trade Rumors

by Colin Wyers

Or, at least, I imagine it is.

June 20, 2012

Manufactured Runs: Does the Rockies' Four-Man Rotation Make Sense?

by Colin Wyers

The Rockies are moving Jeremy Guthrie to the bullpen and going to a rotation of four starters on 75-pitch counts. Are the numbers on their side?

June 13, 2012

Manufactured Runs: The Madness of King Bill

by Colin Wyers

A conscientious sabermetrician questions everything, even the work of Bill James.

June 6, 2012

Manufactured Runs: What We Really Know About the Shift

by Colin Wyers

The defensive shift revolution makes for a nice narrative, but how much has it truly changed the game?

May 30, 2012

Manufactured Runs: Who Gives a Shift?

by Colin Wyers

Is the shifty Brett Lawrie truly the amazing fielder that some defensive metrics claim he is?

May 21, 2012

Baseball Prospectus News: Improving the Odds

by Colin Wyers

We catch and correct an error in our playoff odds.

May 16, 2012

Manufactured Runs: The Angels, Albert Pujols, and the Politician's Fallacy

by Colin Wyers

Are the Angels just shuffling deck chairs on a sinking ship by firing hitting coach Mickey Hatcher?

May 8, 2012

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTA Now Available

by Colin Wyers

Announcing the arrival of in-season projections, updated daily.

May 4, 2012

Between The Numbers: The Prorating Game

by Colin Wyers

Comparing Rivera to starting pitchers is difficult, but that won't stop Colin from trying.

April 19, 2012

Between The Numbers: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Outfield

by Colin Wyers

Some musings about who's fielding the ball.

April 4, 2012

Manufactured Runs: Tragedy of the Commons

by Colin Wyers

Long-term extensions for star players may be shortsighted moves by teams.

March 23, 2012

Extra Innings Excerpt: Are Relievers Being Used Properly?

by Colin Wyers

How did closer usage end up where it is now? And is it truly benefiting the game of baseball?

March 8, 2012

Reintroducing PECOTA: House of Cards

by Colin Wyers

The PECOTA cards are here, including 10-year projections and percentiles.

February 8, 2012

Reintroducing PECOTA: The Weighting is the Hardest Part

by Colin Wyers

The 2012 PECOTA projections are here, and Colin Wyers explains why looking further into the past makes PECOTA more accurate in predicting the future.

January 10, 2012

BP Unfiltered: Watching Jack Play

by Colin Wyers

Did watching Jack Morris make him seem like a Hall of Famer?

January 9, 2012

BP Unfiltered: Suspicious Minds

by Colin Wyers

Because what you really wanted was more bitter debate about the Hall of Fame.

December 2, 2011

Manufactured Runs: The Year of the Free Agent Relief Pitcher

by Colin Wyers

General managers who pay a relief pitcher for what he's done in the past will probably end up overpaying for what they do in the future.

October 27, 2011

Manufactured Runs: Matchup Madness

by Colin Wyers

As the Cardinals and Rangers approach the end of their series, we offer a reminder to their skippers: batter-pitcher matchups aren't very predictive.