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April 2, 2004
by Dayn Perry
I'm going to write about the Cardinals today. I've been a ruthlessly devoted fan of the Cards since I was old enough to eat bugs, so know that I embark on this exercise while holding more stake than usual in the outcome. Time was when I would pick the Cardinals to win their division every single year, but since I began pontificating on baseball for modest pay and an audience, I've had to adopt more of a clinical remove when talking about them. That's why, as things stand, I think they're the third best team in the NL Central (although the recent flurry of decisions and happenstance on the North Side of Chicago have me dreaming fond dreams of second place).
Grumpy about this, I'm going to brazenly second guess all that has passed before the eyes of Cardinal Nation this off-season. It'll be one part bang-spoon-on-high-chair sense of entitlement and one part desultory wallowing in what might have been. I call it “What My Favorite Team Should Have Done This Winter.” I'll try to avoid indulging in castles-in-the-air schemes like: Sign Vlad! Trade for A-Rod! Swap Bo Hart for Marcus Giles! Additionally, I'll attempt to maintain some semblance of fiscal verisimilitude in what I recommend.
With bullet points, for the busy executive...
April 1, 2004
by Dayn Perry
In a paradigm shift that will drop jaws around the league, the Blue Jays have eliminated all amateur scouting positions within the organization. Instead, for the past few weeks, they've relied on prospective draftees to conduct scouting assessments of themselves. Yes, you read that correctly. The Blue Jays, in their unquenchable search for the grail of minimized labor costs, will rely on the player to scout himself.
March 31, 2004
by Dayn Perry
I'm one of the many observers picking the Phillies to prevail in the NL East. Like many prognosticators, however, I make this prediction with a sense of foreboding that a certain team down in Atlanta isn't quite ready to cede the division. Rationally, I know the Braves' rotation has been systematically disemboweled by age and departure. I also know that last season's Panzer division of an offense has lost its two best performers, Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield, to the AL East. Still, the last 13 years have taught me that betting against the Braves is a cockamamie endeavor. With all that in mind, let's take a look at what PECOTA says about the division and determine what needs to happen for the Braves to dish out yet another dynastic noogie to the collective scalp of the NL East.
March 26, 2004
by Dayn Perry
I'm going to type "it's time to answer some reader mail" into AltaVista's Babelfish, translate it from English to German, from German to French and then from French back to English. Then, I'll take what comes out of the wash, translate it from English to French, French to German and then back to English. And we have: "it is a time, in order to answer to the station of the reader." This entertains me.
March 24, 2004
by Dayn Perry
If you're anyone other than a key decision maker for most teams in baseball, you're probably aware that you shouldn't place too much emphasis on spring training stats. Besides the obvious (to most) sample-size caveats, there's also a litany of other reasons not to take Cactus or Grapefruit League numbers terribly awfully really very seriously. For one, an inordinate amount of the playing time goes to reclamation projects, prospects not quite ready for competition at the highest level, minor league vagabond types or veteran performers tinkering around with a new pitch or reconstructed swing. It's simply not the sort of premium level of competition you'll find in regular season contests. While spring training numbers should be taken more seriously than, say, laundry instructions or warning labels on beer, they're still not to be imbued with head-slapping importance. All that said, this time out I'm going to take a look at a handful of spring performances that do have a reasonable degree of import for one reason or another.
March 19, 2004
by Dayn Perry
It's been a fairly bustling off-season with more than its share of meaty trades and free-agent signings. The winter derring-do of teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels have been sufficiently analyzed in other spaces and in this one, but some of the sage moves of the past few months have passed by seemingly unnoticed, with church-mouse quietness (you can only if hear it if you're pure of heart and listen oh-so closely). So today, I'm going to look at a trio of front-office decisions that haven't garnered much bandwidth, but nevertheless merit praise.
March 17, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Freshly minted Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta has plenty of challenges ahead of him. The Dodgers, a team historically accustomed to success, haven't made the postseason since 1996 and don't appear poised to break that trend in the upcoming season. If they don't, it'll be the organization's longest glory drought since they wallowed in mediocrity from 1921 to 1940.
This season, the club does have well defined needs, but those needs--offensive production of some kind--are sweeping and not easily addressed. Although there have been a few rumors floated by the press (Jose Canseco, Adam Dunn, Jason Kendall, Larry Bigbie), DePodesta has yet to make the headline-grabbing move that Dodger nation awaits with bated breath. Although his tenure in L.A. will certainly bring its share of major trades, I'm not so sure that one is in the immediate offing. A panic move isn't in order; a reevaluation of the "Dodger Way" most certainly is. The organization has famously relied on pitching since moving Westward, and it served them well for many years. Stockpiling quality arms is praiseworthy, but not when it's achieved at the utter neglect of the offense. The Dodger Way must change.
March 10, 2004
by Dayn Perry
What do these teams have in common this season: the Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Expos, Yankees and Cardinals? They're not all contenders, they're not all pennant-race non-entities, they're not all possessed of similar strengths and weaknesses, they're not all of a the same economic strata, not all their mascots have feathers, fur or nylon stitching. So what could it be? The answer is that all of the aforementioned teams are poised to open the 2004 season without a lefty in their rotation. What's more is that the Pirates, if they do indeed dispatch Oliver Perez to the minors to start the season, and the Blue Jays, if Ted Lilly's wrist injury keeps him off the opening-day roster and he's replaced by Vinny Chulk, will join their ranks.
I can't really say whether this is a historical oddity, but my suspicion is that when more than a quarter of the league has not a single left-handed starter among them, something's afoot. And, mind you, other than the Reds, these aren't teams that have performed the industry equivalent of dumpster diving to assemble their pitching staffs. In fact, you'll find among these sans-lefty squads the probable top three pitching staffs in all of baseball. Additionally, the Padres may become the first nominal contender since the '94 Expos to go with an all right-handed bullpen for the bulk of the season. So is there any reason for this, ahem, southpaucity?
March 9, 2004
by Dayn Perry
With the rise of quantitative analysis in baseball and the prominence of Michael Lewis's bestseller Moneyball (which, contrary to the ruminations of Joe Morgan, was not written by Oakland GM Billy Beane) there has been cultivated a turf rivalry of sorts between traditional scouting types and their propeller-head assailants. It's my position (and the position of probably all of my colleagues here at Baseball Prospectus) that this rivalry is silly, unnecessary, and ultimately counterproductive. That's because as organizations begin to recalibrate their approach to making player personnel decisions, they don't need to be asking: which method do we choose? Instead, it should be: how do we integrate both approaches?
You see, there's no need to replace traditional scouting with performance scouting (a term sometimes used to describe what we do here at Baseball Prospectus), and there's no need to ignore the latter completely in blind preference to the former. In a column I wrote last year, I made a "beer and tacos" metaphor out of the dilemma. It's a little like asking the question: "Which do you want, beer or tacos?" The answer, of course, is: "Both. Now, please."
March 5, 2004
by Dayn Perry
You might recall that last year I wrote a trio of articles that examined the minor league pitching statistics of two distinct populations of major league hurlers. One group was manifestly successful at the highest level, while the other group, while not as bad as a Slim Whitman concept album, still didn't fare to well in the bigs. While far from conclusive, the findings of the study were more confounding and counterintuitive than anything else. It provided more questions than answers, which is usually what happens when you give a former English major the keys to Excel. It was quite surprising to find that Group B outperformed Group A in several key measures like K/BB ratio, K/9 and BB/9. In short, they struck out hitters at a higher clip, had better control and demonstrated more command. The only thing Group A did do better, albeit modestly, was keep the ball in the park and prevent hits (and the latter probably wasn't entirely of their own making). As such, I've decided to revisit this matter with an eye toward home runs and hits allowed--the two measures that favored Group A in the original study. Additionally, this time I'll remedy an oversight in the first study and bring age into the equation.
March 2, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Comerica's change in fence dimensions make it easier to hit homers, but it changed what, in the previous two seasons, was a terrific park for triples. Comerica's triples factor in 2003 was 126, but from 2001-2002 the figure was a whopping 209. Kauffman Stadium's homer factor for left-handed batters last season was 94, but for right-handed batters it was 120. That's in keeping with the previous three seasons. Network Associates Coliseum was quite rough on lefty power hitters last season; it yielded a home run factor of 75, while right-handed batters enjoyed a factor of 114.
February 28, 2004
by Dayn Perry
In my last column, I made a throwaway remark about the Blue Jays possibly and concomitantly being the third-place team in the AL East and the third-best team in all of baseball. It's an intriguing notion--unassailable quality knuckling under to circumstance. Even so, it's worth asking whether Toronto might have the goods to displace Boston or New York in the junior-circuit pecking order. With the Red Sox and Yankees already brimming with talent and throwing cash around like Marion Barry sans tracking collar, the Jays, in spite of their substantial merits, will likely be resigned to the brand of pre-October respectability to which they've accustomed in recent years. Nothing terribly wrong with that. That's especially the case for a team on a hermetically sealed budget and facing an unbalanced schedule packed with tilts against the Sox, Yanks and the suddenly passable Orioles. Unaccommodating circumstances notwithstanding, one's led to wonder: What would need to happen for the Jays, undeniably a fine team with a highly intelligent front office, to pass playoff muster this season?
February 23, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Since the recent signing of Greg Maddux by the Cubs, a flurry of "who's got the best rotation" navel-gazing has ensued. In mainstream circles, the debate has generally come down to a derby comprising the Red Sox, Cubs, A's and Astros, with the Yankees thrown in on occasion. Rather than listen to me pontificate on who I think has the best starting five, let's see what the PECOTA 2004 Weighted-Mean Projections say. We'll take the VORP for each projected member of the rotation and use the team totals to determine the rankings. For some clubs, the back spot or two of the rotation is up for grabs, but, irrespective of who comes out of the spring-training wash, the rankings aren't likely to be substantially altered.
February 19, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Before delving into those harrowing inhabitants of the Baseball Prospectus statistics page like VORP, RARP, EqA or any other acronym that sounds like a debutante sneezing or something uttered on Castle Wolfenstein circa 1986, it's worth asking: What's wrong with those comfy traditional offensive measures like RBI, batting average and runs scored? This Baseball Prospectus Basics column is going to address that question and, ideally, demonstrate why the traditional cabal of offensive baseball statistics tell only a piece of the story. Later, someone smarter (but shockingly less handsome) than I will take you on a tour of the more advanced and instructive metrics like the aforementioned VORP, RARP and EqA. For now, though, we'll keep our focus on why we need those things in the first place.
February 18, 2004
by Dayn Perry
By now, you've no doubt heard that Barry Bonds' trainer has been arrested after federal agents raided his home and found anabolic steroids on the premises. What's perhaps more noteworthy is that agents also seized Greg Anderson's computer files and a certain manila folder, both of which reportedly contain the names of Anderson's litany of high-profile clients and their supplement regimens. Without a doubt, months of legal sword-crossings are to follow before the contents of Anderson's records are ever released, but that fact in tandem with his close association with Bonds means a growth economy for wild speculation.
I've written elsewhere about how the dangers of steroids have been wildly exaggerated and how any actual detrimental side effects are likely due to its being illegal in the first place. I think the war on drugs is as feckless and dangerous as anything our government has ever attempted. There are unexamined penumbras of the DEA and our log of federal drug laws that are inherently racist and have led to a gradual erosion of our fourth amendment safeguards. But that's not my concern today. My concern is the idea--one that seems to be gaining traction in the mainstream sports media--that notable increases in body size are prima facie evidence of steroid use. This couldn't be further from the truth.
February 12, 2004
by Dayn Perry
One of the more interesting sub-plots this off-season is the Yankees-Red Sox cold war that's been played out in the transactions wires. In terms of coffers and willingness to spend, the Yankees are still in a class by themselves, but the Red Sox now occupy--also by themselves, it seems--the next highest economic sub-strata. And in this particular Cold War, don't expect anyone to bust out the glasnost. Metaphor, over.
With the Yankees, we've seen what happens when spending prowess intersects with reasonable front-office intelligence. Now, with Theo Epstein as GM and a sporting-gentleman owner loosely holding the purse-strings, the Red Sox have joined the Yanks in this rarified air. The talent both clubs have amassed this winter and in winters past is striking. The Yankees may have frittered away Andy Pettitte and lost Roger Clemens to hometown longing, but they may have actually upgraded the rotation by importing the wholly underrated Javier Vazquez and the still effective Kevin Brown. Additionally, Gary Sheffield has been added to an already potent lineup.
February 9, 2004
by Dayn Perry
There's a new bit of conventional wisdom that's gaining traction in the media. It says the Oakland offense will be so bad in 2004 that they'll have trouble besting the amped-up Angels for the division title. I should know; I myself indulged in this bit of convention in a recent column I wrote for FoxSports.com, the gracious purveyors of my primary day job.
The question I should've asked before pontificating on the subject at hand is this: is it actually true? Is the Oakland offense really in such desperate straits. First, let's acknowledge is no longer a team built around its run-scoring capabilities. Ever since the Moneyball furor, some observers haven't enjoyed pointing out that the A's are in fact a pitching-and-defense outfit. Pointing this out is no longer breaking news, and it never really was all that subversive. It's just true; Oakland hasn't ranked in the top half of AL in runs scored since 2001, but they've ranked second and first, respectively, the last two seasons in fewest runs allowed.
Nevertheless, runs are runs, and the A's appear poised to lose quite a few of them on the offensive side of the ledger. Consider that shortstop Miguel Tejada and catcher Ramon Hernandez are both elsewhere. Tejada, among AL shortstops, finished third in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), while Hernandez ranked fourth among AL catchers in VORP. Tejada and Hernandez also ranked second and fourth, respectively, on the team in VORP. That's a serious hunk of production lost by the team that ranked only ninth in the loop in runs scored.
February 5, 2004
by Dayn Perry
This time I'm going to turn my attention to the reigning World Champion Florida Marlins. I've seen it proclaimed in more than one corner that last year's model was mostly the fine work of Dave Dombrowski, with his successor, Larry Beinfest, adding only a complementary tweak or two. So let's find out whether that's true. You may recall that I performed a similar exercise with the '03 Red Sox last year. The methodology will be the same this time around. Using Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), let's see how much Beinfest's acquisitions contributed compared to Dombrowski's.
January 28, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Sometimes I'm easily confused. Watching Jane Campion films makes me feel like a monkey trying to open a coconut. I'm puzzled as to how Napster hopes to achieve substantive market penetration without having Ratt's "Way Cool Junior" on its play list. Oh, and I'm also perplexed by what the Rockies are doing this winter--which is what this little piece of bandwidth is all about.
I've never met Roockies GM Dan O'Dowd, but I know people who have. By all accounts, he's a heady, intellectually curious guy with an open mind. That's why his club's off-season machinations are especially troubling. The Rockies have--rightly, I think--perceived the NL West to be on a down cycle and, ergo, in a winnable condition. But how they've gone about positioning themselves as a contender makes no sense to me.
To wit, Colorado has gone out and signed Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, and Royce Clayton. What's more is that they apparently have starting jobs in mind for each member of this nefarious troika.
January 21, 2004
by Dayn Perry
Baseball's adoption of interleague play and the unbalanced schedule has presented analysts with some new challenges. Quality-of-competition concerns have mostly been overstated, but they do exert a substantive influence over what happens on the field. Frankly, the way the schedule is arranged doesn't make a whit of sense, considering teams from different divisions compete for a single Wild Card spot, but that's the system we've been given. Much has already been done in terms of calibrating statistics to reflect the injustice of MLB's scheduling policies, but one thing I've yet to see addressed is the quality of defenses lineups are facing around the league. That leads me to TAD. You might recall James Click's piece on Team Adjusted Defense (TAD) from a few months ago. By dint of some mathematical acrobatics, James has added some sorely needed alterations to Bill James' defensive efficiency metric. What we're left with is a valuable snapshot of team defense. In any event, what I'm attempting to do this week is come up with strength-of-schedule rankings based on the quality of the defenses they've faced.
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