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or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library

May 10, 2010

Ahead in the Count: If They Stay or If They Go

by Matt Swartz

Research again shows that free agents who re-sign perform better than those who sign with another club.

May 7, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Most Net Valuable Player

by Matt Swartz

Albert Pujols comes out on top of the list of major-leaguers who provide the most bang for the buck.

April 29, 2010

Ahead in the Count: The Source of the AL's Superiority

by Matt Swartz

Why the Junior Circuit doesn't take a backseat to the National League.

April 27, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORP

by Matt Swartz

Putting new valuation into action to evaluate the big bopper's big extension.

April 23, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP

by Matt Swartz

Here is how we're now figuring the monetary value of individual players.

April 22, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Reintroducing MORP

by Matt Swartz

Updating BP's metric measuring the monetary value of a player's production.

April 15, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Labor Market Discrimination

by Matt Swartz

Does Orlando Hudson have a point when he says black players are getting frozen out?

April 8, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Projecting Free Agent Performance

by Matt Swartz

Whether a player's kept or moves on, metrics frequently overstate free agents' future value.

March 25, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 3

by Matt Swartz

There are reasons why E-BABIP's projections don't always agree with those of PECOTA.

March 24, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 2

by Matt Swartz

Who ranks among the best and worst in this seemingly unpredictable yet key metric?

March 23, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

BABIP isn't as luck-driven as many suggest, not after you drill down into the numbers.

March 17, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Why SIERA Doesn't Throw BABIP Out with the Bath Water

by Matt Swartz

With SIERA on our stat menu, here's an explanation of why it predicts pitcher performance so well.

March 15, 2010

Ahead in the Count: The No Turnover Standings

by Matt Swartz

What would happen if players had to stay with the teams who originally drafted or signed them as amateurs?

March 14, 2010

Ahead in the Count: First and Second Plate Appearances

by Matt Swartz

A look at performance variations in plate appearances over time.

March 12, 2010

Between The Numbers: SIERA in Stat Reports

by Matt Swartz

You can now view the SIERA for pitchers in the Stat Reports.

February 25, 2010

Ahead in the Count: DIPS, BABIP and Common Sense

by Matt Swartz

Whether they induce ground balls or fly balls, pitchers avoid the sweet spot of the bat at the same rate.

February 22, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Evaluating Multi-Year Deals

by Matt Swartz

A surprising revelation that players often do better in the second year of two-year contracts than the first.

February 12, 2010

Introducing SIERA: Part 5

by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

A look at three starters who illustrate the predictive strength of Baseball Prospectus' new pitching metric.

February 11, 2010

Introducing SIERA: Part 4

by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

The estimators are tested to show the strength of Baseball Prospectus' new pitching metric.

February 10, 2010

Introducing SIERA: Part 3

by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

A look at the data used in creating SIERA, Baseball Prospectus' new pitching metric.