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or browse research articles in the Baseball Prospectus Library

February 9, 2010

Introducing SIERA: Part 2

by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

A look at the methodology behind Baseball Prospectus' new pitching metric.

February 8, 2010

Introducing SIERA: Part 1

by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

Unveiling a new statistic that provides a clearer picture of pitcher performance.

February 4, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3

by Matt Swartz

Evaluating single high-profile signings against more scatter-shot solutions to team needs.

January 20, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 2

by Matt Swartz

Pricing out the premium on star players, and establishing minimums and expectations for player value.

January 18, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

An evaluation of where the valuation of contracts is at, and where it should go.

January 11, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Part 2 of Service-time Contracts and Wins

by Matt Swartz

Expanding the scope of last week's study to include 2007 and 2008.

January 4, 2010

Ahead in the Count: Service-Time Contracts and Wins, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

A look into how teams are assembled with talent from different sources at different prices.

December 29, 2009

Ahead in the Count: For the Long-Term Investors

by Matt Swartz

A study of which positions give the least value in the second and third years of multi-year contracts signed by free agent.

December 21, 2009

Ahead in the Count: When Bad Teams Land Good Free Agents

by Matt Swartz

Uncovering when it is beneficial for a bad team to sign someone on the free-agent market.

December 17, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster

by Matt Swartz

It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.

December 8, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Shifting in the Third-Base Market

by Matt Swartz

Does expanding the pool of candidates at a position create relative bargains?

November 23, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Zack Greinke and FIP

by Matt Swartz

How much can a pitcher actually control their FIP or ERA?

November 17, 2009

Ahead in the Count: How To Make Up a Good Trade Rumor

by Matt Swartz

Seven simple rules to make your Hot Stove trade rumors more realistic.

November 9, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Cole Being Cole?

by Matt Swartz

Continuing an analysis of Cole Hamels' 2008 and 2009 seasons.

October 28, 2009

Ahead in the Count: The Mashers and the Mashed

by Matt Swartz

An examination of how much of an effect DHs and having pitchers hit have in the World Series.

October 21, 2009

Ahead in the Count: What Happened to Cole Hamels?

by Matt Swartz

Is the pitcher taking the mound in this year's NLCS Game Five that much different from last year's?

October 19, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Park-Adjusted Slugging

by Matt Swartz

Which ballparks give or take back extra bases on balls in play?

October 11, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Ranking the Ds

by Matt Swartz

There has been a major shift in the team-wide defensive rankings this season from last, but what does this mean?

September 29, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Pitcher BABIP by Count

by Matt Swartz

Looking for patterns in BABIP variance suggests that some battles are best won at home plate.

September 23, 2009

Ahead in the Count: Slugging on Balls in Play

by Matt Swartz

Adding a new way to evaluate and interpret team-wide defensive performance to the sabermetric arsenal.