Late on Friday afternoon, following my chat at 4pm ET, I will be releasing what I'm calling my 2011 Mock Worksheet, which is basically an only slightly cleaned up version of a file called 2011mock.odt that's been sitting on my desktop for well over a week, with source names removed. I hope it will be a fun look at how the sausage is made, but even with just the weekend ahead, one gets the sense that we'll still have more answers than questions at that point. Still, let's not go a full day without some juicy rumors, so here's some happenings from a day of phone calls, IMs and text messages.
What's Pittsburgh Up To?
Nobody seems to really know. For your entertainment, here are three quotes from three different sources this afternoon:
“I think it's Hultzen.”
“Rendon is in the lead there.”
“I'm hearing it's Cole.”
In other words, we have no changes there, though a late rumor has the Pirates getting a pre-draft feel from the Hultzen camp on money, as he's the only non-Boras client of the three. That said don't expect Hultzen's representatives at CAA to be any kind of pushover in negotiations.
Lindor Shines in Seattle, Could Make Things Messy
Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor had a private workout for Mariners brass today at Safeco Field, and one source indicated that it was, “Mighty impressive.” Seattle still has their sights set on Rendon, but there is some thought the Lindor could be their surprise back up plan should the Pirates nab the Rice third baseman. “Can you imagine Arizona having their pick of any pitcher?” asked one insider concerning that scenario. Even with their choice, the Diamondbacks still might prefer Hultzen, who they've focused on all spring, although Gerrit Cole would definitely tempt them. Cole's final landing spot could be partially determined by his final pre-draft start at this weekend's regionals in Los Angeles. I have a mole there who promises to report back on not only how Cole looks, but maybe more importantly, who is there to see him.
Washington At Six: Hard To Say
With the first five picks in the draft (Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Royals), there are is least lists and directions that seem to have received general consensus among the rumor mills. For the Nationals, with pick number six, that is anything but the case. There is talk that they'll take a college pitcher who could move quickly, with a focus on UCLA's Trevor Bauer, but other rumors have them looking to make another splash. After getting Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg in the last two drafts, they might look to add the highest upside player once again, and rumors have ultra-toolsy high school outfielder Bubba Starling suddenly in their mix.
Letters, Oh We Get Letters!
While stories of crazy pre-draft bonus demands (we're looking at you Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley) are nothing new, there seem to be a significant increase in the number of them as we enter the final draft under the current rule set. Once a gambit used primarily by top picks, one scouting director indicated that he's received significantly more such letters this year than any other, with one of the most recent being Tennessee high school southpaw Daniel Norris, see by most as a mid first-round pick, indicating that he's looking for $4 million to sign. Most feel that we'll see no more leverage than in previous drafts, while expecting only standard year-to-year inflation. “They can ask for the moon,” said one scouting director, “And we might stare them down to see if the really want to see what all of this looks like in three years.”
Finding A Landing Spot
While going off rumors and information is the most important part of any mock draft, there are also players who you just need to get off the board at some point, even if they might not have a perfectly logical home. Here are three players that seem to be the back up plans for many teams, but rarely the primary target.
Francisco Lindor: The rumor at two applies, but if the Mariners get their man in Rendon, a run on pitching could push him to the end of the top 10, and maybe even beyond.
George Springer: While he's still a bit raw at the plate, it's hard to find these kind of tools and athleticism in a college position player. He could go as high as No. 9 overall (Cubs) and as low as No. 20 (Rockies).
Jed Bradley: The Georgia Tech left-hander has the kind of size and velocity normally reserved for righties, but he's failed to impress down the stretch, and seems to be in everybody's mix beginning with Arizona and their unprotected pick at No. 7, but at no point has anyone said about any team, “They really like Jed Bradley.”
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): 3-for-4, HR (1), R, 3 RBI. You having fun yet? I know I am. After torching the California League to the tune of .408/.451/.606 in 52 games, the podcast's favorite second baseman showed no signs of slowing down in his Double-A debut, but the best part is how he suddenly grew. Listed at 5-5, 148 with Lancaster, Altuve told us he was 5-foot-6 when interviewed a couple of weeks ago, but the Hooks are now listing him as 5-7, 170. At that rate, he'll be 5-11, 210 by the time he gets to the big leagues and the size won't be a concern anymore.
Others Of Note:
Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals (Double-A Springfield) 4-for-5, 2 2B, R, RBI. 15-for-23 with 26 total bases in last five games and .344/.382/.667 overall; at some point the production is going to outweigh the other issues (pun intended).
Yonder Alonso, OF/1B, Reds (Triple-A Louisville): 3-for-4, 3B, R, RBI. Making another run to prove he's a better big league option than Johnny Gomes; 10-for-17 in last four games and .321/.375/.497 overall.
Matt Antonelli, 2B/3B, Nationals (Triple-A Syracuse): 4-for-4, HR (1), R, RBI, SB. Former big prospect with the Padres is trying to resurrect career; .389/.450/.583 in ten games since moving up to Triple-A.
Chris Archer, RHP, Rays (Double-A Montgomery): 5 IP, 9 H, 7 R (4 ER), 2 BB, 4 K. One of the biggest disappointments in the system; one quality start in 11 attempts and a 5.98 ERA.
Christian Bethancourt, C, Braves (Low-A Rome): 3-for-5, 2B, HR (4), 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, K. Three home runs in last six games and up to .277/.294/.416 overall; not bad for a 19-year-old catcher with plus defense.
Adron Chambers, OF, Cardinals (Triple-A Memphis): 3-for-4, 2 HR (5), 4 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB. Still a nice sleeper in the system as a plus defender with plenty of athleticism and a leadoff man's approach; .247/.366/.390 in 44 games.
Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays (Double-A New Hampshire): 2-for-5, HR (5), 2 R, RBI. Snapped out of four-game hitless slump; .316/.414/.544 in 34 games.
Jordan Danks, OF, White Sox (Triple-A Charlotte): 3-for-4, 2B, HR (9), 2 R, RBI, K. Having impressive bounce back year with .265/.349/.524 line that features never before seen power.
Kentrail Davis, OF, Brewers (High-A Brevard County): 4-for-5, 2B, HR (3), 3 R, 2 RBI, SB. Played well during injury-plagued full season debut last year, but hitting just .257/.358/.385 in 49 games.
Lucas Duda, OF/1B, Mets (Triple-A Buffalo): 3-for-3, 2B, 2 HR (7), 3 R, 4 RBI, 2 BB. Well, we certainly know he can hit Triple-A pitching; .280/.402/.540 in 30 games.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks (Double-A Mobile): 3-for-5, HR (18), 2 R, 4 RBI, SB. Tied for the minor league home run lead and .337/.454/.684 overall; believers growing by the day.
Darin Gorski, LHP, Mets (High-A St. Lucie): 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K. 0.61 ERA in last five starts; huge numbers, but scouts still project a relief role.
Grant Green, SS, Athletics (Double-A Midland): 3-for-5, 2 R. Hasn't been able to repeat power surge from the California League and still struggling defensively; .291/.348/.391 in 43 games.
Deolis Guerra, RHP, Twins (Double-A New Britain): 4.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 5 K. In case you were wondering if there was any progress here, the answer is no.
Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres (High-A Lake Elsinore): 2-for-5, 2 R, RBI, SB. 25 multi-hit games in 53 starts; .370/.433/.658 in 53 games and doesn't belong at this level.
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (Low-A Hagerstown): 2-for-5, HR (12), 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB. With four stolen bases in his last two games, he's suddenly on pace for 30/30 possibilities.
Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Brewers (High-A Brevard County): 0.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 1 K. Had best start of the season (seven shutout innings) last time out, and then this; 4.66 ERA in 11 starts.
Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 0-for-5, 1 K. Hype has cooled down significantly, 4-for-28 with 10 Ks in last ten games and down to .266/.391/.468 overall.
Austin Kirk, LHP, Cubs (Low-A Peoria): 5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 3 K. Left-hander makes up for average velocity with command and movement; 2.04 ERA in 57.1 innings with the Midwest League hitting just .171 against him.
Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox (Double-A Portland): 2-for-3, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB. Hasn't maintained hot start, but .291/.335/.488 is still a big step forward.
D.J. Mitchell, RHP, Yankees (Triple-A Scranton): 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. Undersized, but athletic right-hander has plus sinker, throws strikes and has 2.78 ERA; is it possible for a Yankees prospect to be a sleeper?
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (Triple-A Omaha): 3-for-5, K. 14-for-28 during six game hitting streak and up to .289/.355/.497 overall.
Derek Norris, C, Natoinals (Double-A Harrisburg): 2-for-4, R, RBI. Hitting .299 in last 20 games and .238/.378/.465; continues to look like a Mickey Tettleton-like producer.
Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals (High-A Wilmington): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Fantastic 74-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52.2 innings with 2.05 ERA and just one home run allowed.
Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Red Sox (Double-A Portland): 1.1 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 2 BB, 1 K. Has struggled mightily at Double-A; 22 runs allowed over 12 innings in last four games and 8.62 ERA on the season.
Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Indians (High-A Kinston): 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K. Pitched vs. Odorizzi in what was clearly the game of the day; 1.85 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 43.2 innings.
Matt Rizzotti, 1B, Phillies (Double-A Reading): 3-for-5, HR (10), 2 R, RBI, K. Another Matt Adams type (bat-only player, but wow what a bat); .331/.408/.591 in 51 games.
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves (High-A Lynchburg): 3-for-6, R, K, CS. Sure, it's a somewhat empty .316 average at .316/.361/.374; but that's still well beyond expectations and the well above-average defense has been as good as advertised.
Angelo Songco, OF/1B, Dodgers (High-A Rancho Cucamonga): 2-for-4, 2 HR (9), 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 K. Not especially toolsy and a bit old for the league, but he can hit; .324/.382/.542 in 52 games.
Peter Tago, RHP, Rockies (Low-A Asheville): 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 R), 4 BB, 3 K. 2010 Supplemental first-round pick was sparkling in his season debut, but has walked 10 over 6.1 innings in two starts since.
Trayce Thompson, OF, White Sox (Low-A Kannapolis): 2-for-4, 2 2B, R, RBI, 2 K. Among the streakiest prospects around, but when it's good, it's very good; still just .234/.300/.447 in 50 games.
Sebastian Valle, C, Phillies (High-A Clearwater): 3-for-4. 11-for-20 in last five games and .338/.353/.485 overall; approach is an issue, but can hit and is showing improved receiving skills.
Yordano Ventura, RHP, Royals (Low-A Kane County): 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 8 K. The line says it all, as he's been a combination of sloppiness and killer stuff; 7.04 ERA in four starts but 23 strikeouts in 15.1 innings.
Jonathan Villar, SS, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): 2-for-5, 2B, HR (1), 2 R, RBI, K. Promoted along with Altuve to give Corpus Christi a brand new double-play combination, 20-year-old Dominican hit just .259/.353/.414 at Lancaster but showed gap power, plus speed and a good approach.
Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Pirates (Low-A West Virginia): 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K. Best start of much-anticipated full-season debut; ERA still at 6.80 after ten outings.
A 14th-round pick in 2007 out of the University of Mobile, McPherson has made slow a steady progress through the Pirates system, but he's in the midst of a bit of a breakout with a 2.93 ERA in 11 starts and a fantastic 55-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's had a velocity spike, now consistently sitting in the low-90s while touching 94-95 mph at times, and it plays up from there due to his precision. His secondary offerings are solid, but he's going from a guy barely on the radar to a potential No. 4 starter.
Others Of Note:
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (High-A Lancaster): 3-for-5, 2B, HR (5), R, 5 RBIs. A .408/.451/.606 line in 52 games has earned him a promotion to Double-A.
Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles (Triple-A Norfolk): 1-for-5, HR (9), R, 2 RBI, 2 K. Four home runs in last eight games; still at just .260/.290/.453.
Joe Benson, OF, Twins (Double-A New Britain): 3-for-4, 2 2B, R, K. 15-for-30 in last nine games and up to .296/.382/.492.
Mike Carp, OF, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 4-for-5, 2B, HR (15), 3 R, 2 RBI, K. Don't be surprised if he gets another look; 10 home runs in his last 18 games and .325/.385/.624 overall.
Colin Cowgill, OF, Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno): 4-for-5, 2B, HR (9), 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 SB. 18-for-39 during nine game hitting streak and .340/.412/.563 overall.
Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox (Triple-A Charlotte): 1-for-2, HR (7), 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB. Having a nice bounce back you with the bat at .272/.385/.472 in 36 games, but defense still lags.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds (Low-A Dayton): 3-for-5, 2B, R, 3 RBI, SB, CS. Snapping out of a season-long slump?
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (Low-A Hagerstown): 2-for-3, 2B, R, RBI, BB, 3 SB. “Hey, I'm kind of bored. Maybe I'll run a lot today.”
Slade Heathcott, OF, Yankees (Low-A Charleston): 0-for-4, 4 K. Falling into some bad habits that we saw last year; 4-for-29 with 13 strikeouts in his last seven games and down to .287/.363/.444.
Joe Kelly, RHP, Cardinals (High-A Palm Beach): 7.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 9 K. Second straight start where he's had a no-hitter after seven; plus-plus sinker but doesn't always control it well.
Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds (Triple-A Louisville): 3-for-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI. Ten hits in last six games and .306/.388/.494 overall; do Reds fine room for him in Cincinnati in July or is he a great trade chip for a playoff run?
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees (Triple-A Scranton): 2-for-5, 3B, HR (4), 2 R, 3 RBI. In the midst of an 11-game hitting streak and it's good to see some power finally; .309/.344/.438 in 43 games.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (Triple-A Omaha): 2-for-5, 2B, HR (9), R, 3 RBI, 2 K. Finished up May with a .321/.382/.560 line for the month; up this month or July?
Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks (Double-A Mobile): 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. Best start of the year by a wide margin; 5.25 ERA in 10 starts.
Brad Peacock, RHP, Nationals (Double-A Harrisburg): 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K. 40 strikeouts over 26.2 innings in his last four games while allowing only 11 hits. Arguably has best pitching line at the upper levels with 62 IP, 36 H, 13 BB, 82 K.
Robbie Ray, LHP, Nationals (Low-A Hagerstown): 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 3 K. Has allowed one earned run over 24 innings since joining the team three weeks ago; deep arsenal and advanced command for a teenager.
Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers (Triple-A Albuquerque): 1-for-4, HR (11), R, 3 RBI, K. Home runs in three of last four games and .278/.340/.528 overall in 48 games; deserves a look.
Robbie Ross, LHP, Rangers (High-A Myrtle Beach): 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K. Yet another young Rangers arm with excellent command and control.
Hayden Simpson, RHP, Cubs (Low-A Peoria): 0.2 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 1 K. More and more convinced that something is wrong health-wise.
Giovanni Soto, LHP, Indians (High-A Kinston): 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K. There's a whole lot of smoke and mirrors in his game, as his fastball is 85-88 mph, but somehow he has a 2.44 ERA in ten starts with 54 Ks in 51.2 IP.
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