Welcome to Baseball Prospectus! Click Here to Subscribe Today! Already a member? Login | Forgot Password
Prospectus Hit List for May 1
Hit List for April 30
Hit List for May 2
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.
| Rk | Tm | W | L | W1 | W2 | W3 | HLF | AHLF | Win Div% | Win WC% | Playoff% | 1-Day | 7-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 17 | 6 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 17.9 | .761 | .775 | 75.4% | 17.4% | 92.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Nine strikeouts in seven innings? If Yu saw Yu Darvish pitch last night Yu wouldn't have believed it ... OK, nope, never doing that again. | |||||||||||||
| 2 |  | 14 | 8 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 16.5 | .728 | .712 | 61.7% | 23.1% | 84.8% | -0.2% | 1.0% |
| Not one Cardinals starter has a walk rate greater than Adam Wainwright's 2.29. | |||||||||||||
| 3 |  | 16 | 7 | 12.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 | .626 | .607 | 9.9% | 4.9% | 14.8% | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| The Dodgers are reportedly petitioning MLB to allow Matt Kemp to pinch-hit for everyone on their roster all the time. Said manager Don Mattingly, "Give me just 263 reasons why not." | |||||||||||||
| 4 |  | 13 | 9 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 12.7 | .584 | .603 | 64.1% | 24.8% | 88.8% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| If you remove the 10 extra-base hits and count only his 27 singles, Derek Jeter would still lead the Yankees in hits. | |||||||||||||
| 5 |  | 15 | 8 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.9 | .574 | .594 | 17.8% | 40.0% | 57.8% | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| By putting Ben Zobrist in the leadoff position last night, Joe Maddon has now used 20 different batting orders in 23 games. | |||||||||||||
| 6 |  | 14 | 8 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | .613 | .593 | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.6% | -0.2% | -10.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann's 0.67 BB/9 is the lowest in all of baseball for a starting pitcher. He has fewer walks (in 27 innings) than any other pitcher on his team except reliever Sean Burnett, who has two walks in 6 2/3 innings. | |||||||||||||
| 7 |  | 11 | 11 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 13.3 | .558 | .578 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 25.2% | -0.2% | -2.3% |
| The White Sox (+3) are the only team in the Central with a positive run differential. By contrast, all five teams in the AL East have positive differentials. | |||||||||||||
| 8 |  | 14 | 9 | 12.9 | 11.7 | 10.9 | .539 | .558 | 0.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Is Matt Wieters trying to screw over the analytical community? We say he's great, he plays okay. We say, eh, we probably overshot, he becomes great (.279/.364/.574). Sheesh, Matt. Pick a greatness amount and stick to it! | |||||||||||||
| 9 |  | 14 | 9 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 11.8 | .563 | .544 | 29.5% | 22.4% | 51.9% | -1.0% | 4.0% |
| Giving up nine runs to the Pirates is like the local varsity high school team giving up 10 to your little sister's t-ballers and then, while leaving the field, an asteroid falls on their heads. | |||||||||||||
| 10 |  | 12 | 10 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 12.8 | .552 | .532 | 45.1% | 9.3% | 54.3% | -0.0% | -5.1% |
| Things that should not be: Barry Zito's 1.67 ERA. | |||||||||||||
| 11 |  | 11 | 9 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 | .510 | .530 | 27.2% | 11.2% | 38.4% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| Can you guess which team leads all of baseball in walks with 101, 20 more than the next team? OK, yeah, the placement of this question kinda gives it away. | |||||||||||||
| 12 |  | 12 | 11 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 10.6 | .507 | .527 | 0.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | -0.2% | -1.0% |
| Another 0-for-4 from Jose Bautista and another home run from Edwin Encarnacion. The team's wins makes sense; it's how they get there that has been screwy. | |||||||||||||
| 13 |  | 11 | 11 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 10.6 | .494 | .514 | 17.2% | 37.4% | 54.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| Anyone having seen David Ortiz hit this year would have a hard time believing he A) is 36, B) has a 25 percent line-drive rate (it has to be at least four times higher), and C) is not a cyborg from the planet Remulak. | |||||||||||||
| 14 |  | 12 | 11 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 13.1 | .526 | .506 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 31.3% | -0.0% | 0.1% |
| Not counting rookie Patrick Corbin, the Diamondbacks starting lineup included four players hitting under .200. | |||||||||||||
| 15 |  | 13 | 10 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 12.4 | .500 | .480 | 3.6% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| The Mets' 6-2 record in one-run games is the best in baseball. Or, in stock market speak: sell, sell, sell! | |||||||||||||
| 16 |  | 11 | 11 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.0 | .491 | .471 | 15.2% | 29.4% | 44.6% | -0.6% | 0.4% |
| Joey Votto is striking out in 20.4 percent of his plate appearances. That's 5 percentage points higher than last year. Joey Votto is trying to lull the NL into a false sense of security. | |||||||||||||
| 17 |  | 9 | 14 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 12.3 | .488 | .468 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| Poor Astros are shocking the world with the fifth-best run differential in the NL and nobody knows or cares because they're still on pace to lose 99 games. | |||||||||||||
| 18 |  | 11 | 13 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | .443 | .462 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -0.0% |
| Via Jonathan Gantt of the Rays' communications department, Felix Hernandez since 2010 has received one run or no runs of support in 43 percent of his starts. | |||||||||||||
| 19 |  | 11 | 12 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 11.0 | .474 | .454 | 37.3% | 21.4% | 58.7% | -0.5% | 3.4% |
| How bad is the Phillies offense? By OPS, their fifth-leading hitter is Cole Hamels. | |||||||||||||
| 20 |  | 10 | 12 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 11.1 | .462 | .443 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| The Pirates scored nine runs, or 16 percent of their season total. It's akin to the Rangers scoring 20 runs in a game. Or maybe 40 in a game. Time to re-stock that shelter in your back yard. | |||||||||||||
| 21 |  | 11 | 11 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | .460 | .440 | 8.0% | 3.7% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| The 36-year-old Marco Scutaro is hitting .259/.315/.329, so sure, there's your leadoff hitter right there. | |||||||||||||
| 22 |  | 11 | 11 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | .415 | .434 | 54.5% | 9.3% | 63.8% | -0.3% | -1.6% |
| After absolutely destroying the Red Sox to open the season, the Tigers have gone 2-8 and are back at .500. The Red Sox have somehow regained their footing and clawed back to 11-11 as well. Baseball is weird. | |||||||||||||
| 23 |  | 11 | 13 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.0 | .405 | .424 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | -0.0% | -0.4% |
| Josh Reddick has two walks in 90 plate appearances. | |||||||||||||
| 24 |  | 6 | 15 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | .393 | .412 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.0% | -0.1% |
| Jonathan Sanchez has walked 17 in 17 1/3 innings. So close! | |||||||||||||
| 25 |  | 8 | 15 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 8.0 | .377 | .396 | 24.4% | 43.8% | 68.3% | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| Jokes that won't last long so you'd better use them now: Erick Aybar is so bad he's even worse than Albert Pujols. | |||||||||||||
| 26 |  | 11 | 12 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | .414 | .395 | 22.3% | 33.6% | 55.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Braun became the first player to hit three homers in a game at Petco Park. They may move the fences in next season so remember, so far, there is only one. | |||||||||||||
| 27 |  | 8 | 15 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 10.5 | .395 | .376 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| I just made up a stat to show you how ineffective starter Chris Volstad has been: Strikeout/Earned Run ratio. Volstad is at 20/19. | |||||||||||||
| 28 |  | 8 | 14 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.5 | .392 | .373 | 26.5% | 22.8% | 49.3% | 0.3% | -1.9% |
| Heath Bell has not given up a run in four of his eight relief appearances. Nope, he has given up two runs in four of his eight relief appearances. | |||||||||||||
| 29 |  | 6 | 16 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.8 | .349 | .367 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| The Twins have given up 124 runs, tied with Boston for most in baseball. But they've scored 40 fewer runs than Boston. That won't work long term or really ever. | |||||||||||||
| 30 |  | 7 | 17 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | .370 | .351 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 20.7% | -0.7% | 1.8% |
| How bad are the Padres? They're so bad they're not even bad enough to be the worst in baseball. That's bad. | |||||||||||||
The Rangers are so doggone good we got too excited and made a Yu/you joke.