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The model for TRAA (Takeoff Rate Above Average) is similar to SRAA, but more complicated. With Takeoff Rate, we don't care whether the baserunner actually succeeds in stealing the base; what we care about is that he made an attempt.
Our hypothesis is that base-stealing attempts are connected with the pitcher’s ability to hold runners. When baserunners are not afraid of a pitcher, they will take more steps off the bag. Baserunners who are further off the bag are more likely to beat a force out, more likely to break up a double play if they can’t beat a force out, and more likely to take the extra base if the batter gets a hit.
Takeoff Rate stats consider the following factors:
- The inning in which the base-stealing attempt was made;
- The run difference between the two teams at the time;
- The stadium where the game takes place;
- The underlying quality of the pitcher, as measured by Jonathan Judge’s cFIP statistic;
- The SRAA of the lead runner;
- The number of runners on base;
- The number of outs in the inning;
- The pitcher involved;
- The batter involved;
- The catcher involved;
- The identity of the hitter on deck;
- Whether the pitcher started the game or is a reliever.
Takeoff Rate Above Average is also scaled to zero, and negative numbers are once again better for the pitcher than positive numbers. By TRAA, here were the pitchers who worried baserunners the most in 2014.
And here were the pitchers who emboldened baserunners in 2014:
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