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DRA needs a week or two to get started each year but is up and running for good by May, and often well before.
DRA is BP's flagship pitcher run estimator. It estimates the rate at which a pitcher "deserved" to give up runs, and includes estimates for the uncertainty around that rate.
Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of multilevel models to estimate the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) for park, opponent, and, when helpful, framing, temperature, and pitch type as well. DRA achieves significant improved reliability over both raw pitcher statistics (like ERA) and other pitcher run estimators.
DRA estimates include uncertainty estimates, making it easier to compare players to one another and to appreciate the stability of DRA's estimates, even early on in the season. In general, a pitcher's DRA, plus or minus one standard deviation (DRA_SD) encompasses at least 70% of the "true" DRA values for that pitcher.
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