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Five-Year Forecast

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The Five-Year Forecast is a player's weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next five seasons.

The process for generating a player's weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2008) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2006). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect).

If a player's Drop Rate exceeds 50% (that is, more than half of his comparables are no longer playing professional baseball), then PECOTA does not list his weighted mean line for that season. Instead the season is designated with the tagline 'Out of Baseball'.

Note that the Five-Year Forecast assumes that a player's team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.

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