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Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a player's
production will improve by at least 20 percent relative to the
weighted average of his performance over his most recent
The percent chance that a player’s production (measured by RA for pitchers, and True Average for hitters) will improve by at least 20 percent relative to the weighted average of his performance over his most recent seasons.
Every player of the same age in our database (historically) is assigned a similarity score to the player in question. For each such similar player, a "baseline" value is projected for runs allowed based on past performance and standard aging curves. The weighted average of "1" or "0" for each of these similar players is taken, where "1" is used each time a comp player accomplished the goal in question—improving his run prevention or True Average by 20 percent.
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