| Postseason Odds Report |
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| 8/25/04
2:26 AM |
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| =========================================================================================== |
| AL East |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Baltimore |
57 |
66 |
.496 |
.540 |
.456 |
74.8 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Boston |
70 |
53 |
.628 |
.509 |
.619 |
94.1 |
16.2% |
60.1% |
76.3% |
91 |
| N.Y. Yankees |
76 |
47 |
.567 |
.492 |
.575 |
98.4 |
83.8% |
11.0% |
94.9% |
92 |
| Tampa Bay |
56 |
68 |
.465 |
.515 |
.450 |
73.1 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Toronto |
53 |
72 |
.456 |
.519 |
.437 |
69.2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| AL Central |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Chicago White Sox |
60 |
62 |
.515 |
.494 |
.521 |
80.8 |
2.3% |
0.2% |
2.5% |
89 |
| Cleveland |
63 |
62 |
.486 |
.502 |
.484 |
80.9 |
2.2% |
0.2% |
2.4% |
89 |
| Detroit |
59 |
65 |
.520 |
.488 |
.532 |
79.2 |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
89 |
| Kansas City |
44 |
77 |
.374 |
.509 |
.365 |
59.0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Minnesota |
70 |
54 |
.521 |
.510 |
.511 |
89.4 |
94.7% |
0.0% |
94.8% |
82 |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| AL West |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Anaheim |
71 |
54 |
.537 |
.513 |
.524 |
90.4 |
23.3% |
12.7% |
36.0% |
91 |
| Oakland |
71 |
53 |
.580 |
.499 |
.581 |
93.1 |
66.8% |
6.9% |
73.7% |
90 |
| Seattle |
46 |
77 |
.463 |
.516 |
.447 |
63.4 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Texas |
69 |
54 |
.520 |
.520 |
.500 |
88.5 |
9.9% |
8.7% |
18.6% |
92 |
| =========================================================================================== |
| NL East |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Atlanta |
70 |
53 |
.537 |
.478 |
.559 |
91.8 |
97.9% |
0.1% |
98.0% |
83 |
| Florida |
62 |
60 |
.498 |
.495 |
.503 |
82.1 |
1.4% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
90 |
| Montreal |
53 |
71 |
.413 |
.518 |
.395 |
68.0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| N.Y. Mets |
59 |
64 |
.502 |
.492 |
.511 |
78.9 |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
90 |
| Philadelphia |
62 |
63 |
.491 |
.480 |
.511 |
80.9 |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.7% |
90 |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| NL Central |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Chicago Cubs |
68 |
56 |
.590 |
.464 |
.625 |
91.7 |
0.1% |
80.2% |
80.3% |
88 |
| Cincinnati |
59 |
64 |
.434 |
.506 |
.428 |
75.7 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
92 |
| Houston |
62 |
62 |
.522 |
.508 |
.514 |
81.5 |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
92 |
| Milwaukee |
55 |
68 |
.486 |
.506 |
.480 |
73.7 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Pittsburgh |
58 |
66 |
.456 |
.507 |
.449 |
75.1 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| St. Louis |
82 |
42 |
.615 |
.494 |
.620 |
105.6 |
99.9% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
90 |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| NL West |
W |
L |
W3% |
SOS |
ROY% |
W' |
Div |
WC |
Total |
Key W |
| Arizona |
39 |
87 |
.389 |
.506 |
.383 |
52.8 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Colorado |
55 |
69 |
.440 |
.512 |
.427 |
71.2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-- |
| Los Angeles |
72 |
52 |
.556 |
.491 |
.566 |
93.5 |
88.7% |
2.8% |
91.4% |
88 |
| San Diego |
66 |
58 |
.498 |
.504 |
.495 |
84.8 |
1.6% |
3.1% |
4.7% |
91 |
| San Francisco |
69 |
57 |
.520 |
.492 |
.528 |
88.0 |
9.7% |
12.7% |
22.4% |
90 |
| =========================================================================================== |
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| Legend |
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| W, L |
Wins and Losses (Unadjusted) |
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| W3% |
Third-order winning percentage, based on EqRS,
EqRA, and quality of opponents. |
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See adjusted
standings page for additional detail. |
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| SOS |
Strength of Schedule for remainder of season,
based on opponents' W3% |
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| ROY% |
Rest of Year winning%, based on W3% and
SOS.� ROY% is calculated using the |
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log5 formula. |
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| W' |
Expected wins at end-of-season based on ROY%. |
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| Div |
Odds of winning division. |
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| WC |
Odds of winning Wild Card. |
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| Total |
Odds of reaching postseason. |
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| Key W |
"Key Wins".� If a team wins this number of games, it
will be more likely than |
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not to reach the postseason.� Key Wins are not calculated for a team
with a |
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negligible chance of reaching the postseason. |
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| Questions or
comments? |
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| nsilver@baseballprospectus.com |
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| � Prospectus
Entertainment Ventures, LLC |
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