Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bradley Ankrom

Chat: Bradley Ankrom

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday October 08, 2012 1:00 PM ET chat session with Bradley Ankrom.

Talk shop with the author of the Minor League Update and "The Process."

Bradley Ankrom: Welcome, it's nice to see you again. I like your haircut. Let's begin.

Rob (Alaska): Hey, thanks for the chat. So how did Taylor Guerrieri look when you saw him in September? Do you want him or Aaron Sanchez in a lifetime keeper league?

Bradley Ankrom: I like both quite a bit, but Sanchez has the higher upside. Guerrieri profiles as more of a mid-rotation guy, whereas Sanchez could develop into a strong two or better.

Rob (Alaska): Hey, thanks for the chat. So how did Taylor Guerrieri look when you saw him in September? Do you want him or Aaron Sanchez in a lifetime keeper league?

Bradley Ankrom: I like both quite a bit, but Sanchez has the higher upside. Guerrieri profiles as more of a mid-rotation guy, whereas Sanchez could develop into a strong two or better.

vlad10804@aol.com (bronx): hey Bradley, did you ever hear of a kid out of rockland county , andrew camardella he is related to me. distant relative, from what i hear he is a beast,led nation in doubles in 2012.would like to hear some news on him.I think he is at dominican college. thanks mike

Bradley Ankrom: I know the name, but I don't know much about the player so I turned to our in-house amateur guru, Mark Anderson:

"Good story, marginal prospect, gap power, not a ton of offensive skills for a guy that's a first baseman. He's on the draft radar, but I haven't heard much mote than org guy rumblings."

More about Camardella and his story: http://www.lohud.com/article/20120526/NEWS03/305260054

MattWinks (Philly): What are your thoughts on Roman Quinn, he put up some of the best numbers in the NY-P league and it seems he might be able to stick at SS?

Bradley Ankrom: He hit pretty well in the New York-Penn League, and demonstrated his plus-plus speed with 30 steals and 11 triples, but his work at shortstop still leaves something to be desired. Wouldn't be surprised to see him moved to center field.

schmuckdonald (Liverpool, UK): Are you actually a dog? If yes, then that's made my day.

Bradley Ankrom: I am. Woof.

Lil' Sebastian (The Barn): Is Domingo Santana a top-50 guy for you?

Bradley Ankrom: How is heaven treating you, Lil' Sebastian? We miss you here in Pawnee. Your funeral is still the only time I've ever seen Ron Swanson shed tears.

Santana isn't top 50, but he could sneak into the 75-100 range... haven't really thought about it much yet.

jlarsen (chicago): With Baltimore's somewhat sketchy history with 1st round picks and almost non-existence in IFAs, do you foresee the organization being a long-term contender or was this year a "perfect storm" season for them?

Bradley Ankrom: I think this year was flukey, but I also think they can remain competitive now that Machado and Bundy are a part of the major-league club's plans. I never heard a good reason for why all of those early-round arms went down with injuries over the last few years, but something may have (probably has) changed since Duquette took over. I'm optimistic that they've turned that around.

sitdancer (DC): What's your take on the sliding prospect stock of Nolan Arenado? No star ceiling anymore? Do you see him or Jedd Gyorko as the higher ceiling prospect at 3b?

Bradley Ankrom: Still love Arenado; had to expect his numbers to come down a bit from what he put up in the California League, and I think he did well for a 21-year old in AA. Still lots of doubles and lots of contact. I'd take him over Gyorko, who is 2.5 years older and did the bulk of his damage in the Pacific Coast League last year.

Garett (Ohio): Have you jumped ship completely on arenado? Thoughts on singletons platoon issues? Sano, is he going to be taveras or is he going to be delmon young? And I just want your quick thought on Dickey's year next year?

Bradley Ankrom: I don't think Sano is anything like Taveras or Young, so can I say neither?

Re Dickey... I don't know what to expect from him next year. He's such an anomaly and my gut says to expect massive regression next year due to his age and the flukiness of knuckleballers, but he's been a great story this year and he got my first-place NL Cy Young vote in our postseason awards voting earlier this week.

Billy (Ocean): Does any team have more potential impact talent hitting the majors next year than the Cardinals—with OSCAR, Kolten Wong, and Shelby Miller?

Bradley Ankrom: Nope, and I'm interested to see how the Cardinals work Taveras in next year -- if they do so at all. Jon Jay established himself this year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards let Taveras crush PCL pitching until an injury or September roster expansion opens up an opportunity for him in St. Louis.

Alex (Anaheim): Any hope that Betances can turn things around in 2013?

Bradley Ankrom: As long as he's healthy, there's a chance. Chris Mellen's profile of him in today's Ten Pack (bbp.cx/a/18592) suggests that lack of confidence may have played a role in why his season never got on track.

Paul (DC): Who is your top Marlin prospect heading into 2013, the hard throwing Jose Fernandez or the sweet swinging Christian Yelich?

Bradley Ankrom: Yelich remains atop the Marlins rankings for me, but Fernandez is a hell of a number-two.

jlarsen (chicago): Which organization has dramatically improved their farm system the most since the new CBAs rules have been in effect?

Bradley Ankrom: Kind of a cop-out, but I'll say the Astros, who certainly benefitted from having the top pick in last year's draft but also maximized their bonus allotment.

jlarsen (chicago): What prospects need to be protected before the Rule 5 draft? Any teams that have a ton of Rule 5 eligibles and are likely to try to slip a few through in hopes that teams don't gamble on them?

Bradley Ankrom: I haven't looked at the Rule 5-eligible list yet, but the draft itself is much less interesting than it used to be since they gave teams an extra year of protection. Expect to see a Rule 5 preview leading up to the draft in December.

Paul (DC): Starling Marte, does he have a reasonable shot at being an All Star at some point in his career?

Bradley Ankrom: Sure, plenty of good-not-great players have strong first halves and make the All-Star Game. I don't expect him to turn into a superstar, but he does a lot of things well.

Paul (DC): Danny Hultzen. Just what the hell with his second half? Are we looking at a Rick Ankiel or Steve Bass type situation with his loss of control (though the Ks still seemed to be there)?

Bradley Ankrom: It's premature to start the Ankiel and Blass comparisons, though the degeneration of Hultzen's command and control is one of the most surprising developments of the year. No one seems to have a good reason for why it happened, but I think it's fair to wait until we see how he looks next year before downgrading him significantly.

myshkin (Santa Clara): The A's outfield has fewer future openings than I expected, but will Michael Choice force his way into the discussion despite the injury setback?

Bradley Ankrom: Yes, Coco Crisp's contract expires after next year (though the A's do hold a team option) and I would expect to see Cespedes shift to center field and Choice slide into left when the latter is ready for the big leagues.

Paul (DC): Will Tony Cingrani be given a shot at making the Red's rotation coming out of 2013 spring training?

Bradley Ankrom: Doubtful, with Arroyo, Latos, Leake, Cueto, and Bailey all under team control for next year. That rotation proved reliable this year (it started all but one of the Reds' games this year), so I'd expect Cingrani to work in middle relief next year with a chance at replacing Arroyo in 2014.

captnamerca (Dunedin, FL): Does ARodys Vizcaino develop ito a starer, or is he destined for the bullpen?

Bradley Ankrom: I believe Chicago will develop him as a reliever, and he could replace Carlos Marmol as the Cubs' closer as soon as 2014.

nik19 (Philly): Is Jonathan Pettibone ready to join the Phillies rotation next season?

Bradley Ankrom: No, and I think his straight fastball will get pounded if he has to see guys multiple times per game. See him as more of a bullpen guy long term.

myshkin (Santa Clara): If you had an infinite army of moderately trainable volunteers, what data about baseball currently unavailable to the public would you most want to gather, and how would you have them do it?

Bradley Ankrom: This is a great question and I can't believe I'm unable to come up with a good answer for you. Pitch, hit, and field data from the minor leagues would be incredibly valuable...

JT (New Jersey): ETA on Archie Bradley reaching Big Leagues?

Bradley Ankrom: He could move quickly once he irons out his command, but I wouldn't expect to see him in Arizona before 2015.

Paul (DC): Who is in the Athletics starting rotation next April?

Bradley Ankrom: I'll say Parker/Griffin/Anderson/Straily/Milone.

Bradley Ankrom: Thanks for all of the questions - sorry I couldn't get to them all. Let's do this again in a few weeks. PS - The Minor League Update will return this week with the start of the Arizona Fall League. Look for the first update on Thursday.