Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Kevin Goldstein II

Chat: Kevin Goldstein II

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday June 06, 2011 11:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Goldstein II.

Join Kevin Goldstein for a late-night draft wrap-up.

Kevin Goldstein II: Yes, I'm tired. Yes, I want to talk about the draft. Let's do this.

Peter7899 (Chicago): Are you surprised Beede went off the board to the Jays, yet Bell is still on the board?

Kevin Goldstein II: Not surprised. SHOCKED. Seems like people believed Bell's later but didn't believe Beede's. The Blue Jays must really think they can sign him. I thought Boston or Tampa would nab Bell in the sup first, but clearly, something got out there about just how much he was going to cast, and everyone stayed away.

Rick Rowand (Atlanta): Do you foresee any sign-ability problems for the Sox with Swihart and what position do you see him projected for?

Kevin Goldstein II: He's going to sign. Him catching is a bigger question. He'll get every chance to stay there, and certainly has the tools to make it work, but it's going to take a lot of work.

Charles (NY): Who do You think had the best day 1 based on overall talent as well as value?

Kevin Goldstein II: I love what Arizona did with Bauer, Archie Bradley, and Andrew Chafin, my favorite non first round guy. Huge boost for a system that already has Parker and Skaggs.

Simon (Toronto): What do you think of the Jays' draft?

Kevin Goldstein II: First two picks in Beede and Anderson are very risky tough signs, but I like the risk and it's a great draft if they sign. I also like Dwight Smith in the first round, and Kevin Comer was a high school pitcher who was suddenly in some late first round mixes heading into the deal. Impressive haul.

Mfalcon (Baton rouge): How much an overdraft was Bichette?

Kevin Goldstein II: Tons of Bichette questions, so lets get this out of the way. Was he the 51st best talent? No. Not really even close. More of a 2nd-3rd round guy. That said, I might be wrong, because he was moving up boards late on some impressive workouts and can really hit. He also looks amazingly like his father facially.

Steven Goldman (The Prospect Cave): So how many hours you going to go on this chat? Even Rob Neyer never went six hours OVERNIGHT.

Kevin Goldstein II: I don't know. I'm already gassed, but excited to talk to the readers.

Brandon (TX): Thoughts on the Nationals draft? Any chance they continue to take upside players, rather than signability picks?

Kevin Goldstein II: Adore it. No way they imagined Rendon would be at six, and Meyer is also better than his draft slot, especially if you favor upside. The pair also make four straight first round picks for Washington that are Scott Boras clients. Brian Goodwin is another big time athlete who fits well with their philosophy.

Vanessa (Hartford): What's the biggest reason Purke is still available going into Day Two - signability? shoulder? More likely he goes back to TCU in 2012, goes to summer league to recoup lost money, or lowers his signing demands?

Kevin Goldstein II: He didn't pitch well, he's not healthy, and his price tag never moved. That's an ugly combination. It's not a guarantee, but him heading back to TCU for '12 is looking quite possible.

brian (brooklyn): You mentioned in a chat that met fans will end up most disappointed with this draft. So far not so bad, right?

Kevin Goldstein II: Nimmo at 13 was probably the surprise of the first round. He'll take over-slot money to sign, but the kid can really hit. I also like the 44 pick Michael Fulmer. He was "that other Oklahoma pitcher" all spring, but he's a strong, physical righty with a big arm.

Eric (Chicago): Do you think Baez was a reach at 9? Every one says bat speed bat speed bat speed but that's what they said about Josh Vitters.

Kevin Goldstein II: He's got crazy great bat speed, but is also a much better all-around athlete than Vitters.

Steve D. (PA): Top five left?

Kevin Goldstein II: Josh Bell, Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard, Austin Hedges, Josh Osich

Peter7899 (Chicago): I think the Cubs did about the best they could do at #9 for high upside. None of the sure fire impact talents dropped to them.

Kevin Goldstein II: I think it's a totally defendable pick there.

Will (Seattle): So was Hultzen a reach at #2? Ace potential?

Kevin Goldstein II: I don't think Hultzen is an ace. I like Bundy better, and if you insist on a college guy, I like Bauer better. Hultzen is certainly the best bet in the draft to be a productive big league pitcher, but doesn't offer the same upside as some.

JP (Winnipeg): Did both the Jays and Rays do enough with their boatload of picks? Who's haul do you prefer?

Kevin Goldstein II: I'm actually a bit disappointed with the Rays. I expected pure aggression, and got a lot of reaches, and a lot of guys they just like that will sign quickly. Certainly some athletes and upside. I'm sure they were thrilled to see Guerreri and Mahtook fall to them, but after that, it's been somewhat uninspiring. That said, I adore James Harris, their final pick of the day.

Simon (Toronto): What's the reason for Norris falling?

Kevin Goldstein II: $3.9 million bonus demand. Simple as that.

Jeff (Top Town, KS): What are the last two players drafted, with comparable tools to Starling, that didn't realize potential and last player that did?

Kevin Goldstein II: Donavan Tate might end up that first guy . . .

Peter7899 (Chicago): So uhh Jim Bowden and you seem to agree quite a bit eh? Awkward....

Kevin Goldstein II: We had some differences. Guy knows his baseball.

Jeff (Toronto): Every year, teams will select players late in the draft that have little chance of signing (Jays drafted a "First Round Talent" 1B last year, in 17th Round, as an example). What is the difference between those "tough signs" and the "tough signs" in the early rounds? What is different about the process?

Kevin Goldstein II: The tough signs a team takes earlier are guys that a team is really going to make a big, aggressive run at. Those MUCH later guys are insurance policies that you are only going to negotiate with if the early guys don't pan out.

jimbeau99 (left coast): So how much WILL it take to sign Bell?

Kevin Goldstein II: My guess is $6.5M

Sean (Pittsburgh): any chance of a round 2 mock before noon tomorrow?

Kevin Goldstein II: NO chance!

marctacoma (wa): OSU C Andrew Susac: good pick in 2nd round or poor man's Mitch Canham?

Kevin Goldstein II: Maybe. I have to be honest. That's a guy that I really didn't get a whole lot of support for. Hard to find guys who liked him.

Steven Goldman (The Fortress of Prospectitude): But even though there won't be a round 2 mock tomorrow, come back... We'll still have lots of other cool stuff!

Kevin Goldstein II: What he said.

gwdunbar (Austin, TX): Thoughts on the two Rangers picks? I don't get why we keep taking guys who would probably be available in round 2 or 3.

Kevin Goldstein II: Because teams take guys they like. Let me makes this clear. The Rangers or the Rays or the A's or whoever really couldn't give a rat's ass what myself, or Keith Law or Jim Callis think about a guy. That's who they like. I understand the Matthews pick, he's a Rangers kind of guy w/ a very clean arm who might be undervalued. As for Cone, I just don't get that one.

Tigerdog (Orange, CA): Odds of Tigers getting Josh Bell at 76- revised estimate?

Kevin Goldstein II: 76% chance of him getting there, but I'm not convinced they'll take him.

adamsternum (Paris, France): Was there an element of making a statement to the Mets pick, or was Nimmo to them simply the best guy for the system?

Kevin Goldstein II: Bon jour! A little bit of both, really.

Josh G (Sacramento): Did the Giants take Panik because they thought the Twins were in on him or becuase they thought he was the BPA?

Kevin Goldstein II: I heard some late chatter about him maybe, just MAYBE sneaking into the first round, but I didn't buy it. If you told me this afternoon that Panik would go before Levi Michael in this draft, I would have bet a LOT of money that you were wrong.

Jordan (Punxsutawney): Will the Pirates take another high school pitcher with pick #61?

Kevin Goldstein II: That's a good guess. Could be Puerto Rico RHP Jorge Lopez.

Michael (Houston): What are your thoughts on the Padres draft? For where they were picking, really like their selections.

Kevin Goldstein II: I'm neither high nor low. For 10 and 25, Spangenberg and Ross I would say add up to par for the course. It's not bad, but I'm not crazy about it either. I'm a big Jace Peterson fan, but I'm a sucker for athletes.

edgardiazrocks (upper left): got a guess for M's at #62?

Kevin Goldstein II: Nick Ahmed, SS, UConn

pmls (Los Angeles of Anaheim): Surprised the Angels took a college hitter with no position instead of a projectable HS something? What is Cron's ultimate upside?

Kevin Goldstein II: Really surprised, but never really had a clue what they were doing for the last 72 hours. Doesn't seem like their kind of guy, but he really can hit. Upside is a guy with big power and on-base skills, but maybe a DH. He is just a non-athlete.

Bface (Dallas): Out of Bell, Howard, and Norris, who is most likely to make it through the 2nd round?

Kevin Goldstein II: Daryl Strawberry? Not a lot of guys with those kind of tools.

msambor (chicago): thoughts on keenyn walker?

Kevin Goldstein II: I like him! Risky pick, but I like going with upside when you don't have a first rounder. He definitely could flame out early, but it's worth the risk.

edgardiazrocks (upper left): What separated Bradley from Anderson?

Kevin Goldstein II: I assume you mean Jed. Jed is bigger. Jed throws harder.

Jonah Keri (Moose Jaw): How hard does Hudson Boyd throw?

Kevin Goldstein II: Low 90s, and he's HUGE. Big, big, large, sizeable human being.

Bill (Boston): Like the Red Sox picks of Barnes and Swihart, but not a fan of Bradley Jr who seems to have average skills across the board. He also is another LH outfielder for which their system is already over stocked. Why not pop another pitcher or go for a power hitting OF with the #40 pick?

Kevin Goldstein II: Bradley is a good pick at 40. You know how good it is to find a player who is average across the board at 40?

escroll (Mexico City): If the Pirates draft Josh Bell or Purke in the 2nd round, do they have any shot of signing them outside of an unprecedented bonus? Is it realistic to think they might go for unprecedented with hard-slotting a possibility for next year?

Kevin Goldstein II: Not gonna happen.

zanon49 (Canton, Ohio): Think the Indians will go with a college pitcher now since they didn't in the first?

Kevin Goldstein II: Not necessarily, they're in best player available mode.

@kcopen (Alameda, ca): Who's going to spend the money on Josh Bell in round 2?

Kevin Goldstein II: That's totally the million dollar question right now. I still think there is some shot at the Rays throwing up their hands and going for it.

jdouglass (Chicago): KG, nice job playing Armando on Saturday night. Fun stuff. Cardinals fan. Talk me off the ledge on Kolten Wong, and why I shouldn't sweat it so much that they didn't take one of the prep arms available.

Kevin Goldstein II: Thanks so much for coming, that was just a crazy great time. I like Wong, I've said it all along. Kid can just plain hit and is going to be a good No. 2 hitter in the big leagues.

Shane (Miami): Odds that Beede is a Jay when all is said and done, or goes to Vandy?

Kevin Goldstein II: I don't think Toronto does that at 21 unless they feel VERY good about their chances of signing him.

Drew W (NoVA): Do you like Sonny Gray as a starter or reliever?

Kevin Goldstein II: Personally, a reliever. The A's see him as a starter. The funny thing is, either way, he's a great pick at 18.

Tony (OKC): If you were Tampa, wouldn't you use a1 or 2 picks on Bell/Norris/Howard/Purke and see which of them you could sign? That's some serious upside...

Kevin Goldstein II: Yes, I would, in particular on Bell.

Tony (OKC): Interesting that Gray at #18 would be good value even if he's in the 'pen. Shutdown closer upside if they go that route?

Kevin Goldstein II: Yes, I think he could close.

Ace (San Francisco): Kevin, you talked us Giants fans down on Gary Brown last year - any similar thoughts on Panik this year?

Kevin Goldstein II: No, I'm not talking you down on that one. Didn't like the pick.

Minor (ATL): Thanks for staying up. Why do we get Minor2.0? That gets me, Minor1.0 a little worried, with that black hole called offense here in ATL, about getting dealt soon

Kevin Goldstein II: They had a lot of high school arms in their mix, but they all went away right before they picked. Certainly wasn't a bopper there that made sense for them with that pick.

Josh G (Sacramento): I saw Panik compared to Freddy Sanchez-is that a legit comp or is it done mainly because they're in the same org?

Kevin Goldstein II: Freddy Sanchez won a batting title. I'll got out on a limb and say Panik will never win a batting title.

Matt (Malone, NY): Please talk me down on Brandon Nimmo. I hate that pick.

Kevin Goldstein II: Why? You should be thrilled. By all accounts they were going to be all boring and then they do that. Mets fans complain about their drafts when they don't take a risk and then they do and you complain. Can't win.

Bret (Toronto): What kind of upside are we talking about with Jacob Anderson? Is he a left fielder long term?

Kevin Goldstein II: He's extremely long and could end up with big big power once the body fills out. The bat is his primary tools, so that's the risk.

rgmoore68 (LA): Should I feel OK about Chris Reed, all things considered?

Kevin Goldstein II: Not at 16. More of a supplemental round talent. They had to go safe, and went super duper safe. By the way, thanks to everyone for getting me to 10,000 twitter followers which just happened.

Guillermo (Montevideo, Uruguay): Reading this chat and also this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=206 You talking about Bard, Lincecum and Hochevar (and others) just after they were picked... good call on Timmy!

Kevin Goldstein II: I just dig the fact that you are in Uruguay and reading five year old chats.

johnnyholiday (Chicago): How many 5 stars were drafted today?

Kevin Goldstein II: Fun question. I'm going to roughly estimate eight.

Clayton Zoellner (Houston): Was Rendon at 6 the biggest draft bargain?

Kevin Goldstein II: I hope you aren't talking monetarily. Rendon is still going to want 1-2 money.

Tony (OKC): Any chance that reader Guillermo from Uruguay is declared eligible for the draft tomorrow?

Kevin Goldstein II: I have yet to receive documentation telling me that he's a U.S. citizen. Hear he has a good breaking ball.

Joe (Rockford): I feel like the Brewers got some tremendous pitching/value with Jungmann 12 and Bradley 15, but some fans seem disappointed in their "low ceilings." Who's right?!

Kevin Goldstein II: I like Jungmann at 12, but I'm not an Jed Bradley guy; he was just so mediocre down the stretch.

Nathan Horton (Boston Hospital): What grade would you give the Red Sox for Day 1?

Kevin Goldstein II: 60. Solid above-average.

myshkin (Santa Clara, CA): Why did all this news and hubbub about Speck come out today? Was the agent not actually expecting anyone to find and/or draft him?

Kevin Goldstein II: The agent is not a wonderful human being. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the hell happened, but it sure was fun.

Michael (Houston): Chafin was a favorite among you non-first round guys. Who are a few of your favorites outside of the top 100?

Kevin Goldstein II: Gimme Hawtin Buchanan, a high-school rhp from Mississippi who his a six-foot-eight beast. VERY raw, but you sure can dream on him.

Allen (Toronto): Guess as to how much it's going to cost to sign the first 5 picks for Toronto? Over 10 million?

Kevin Goldstein II: Fun questions. I'll take the under.

Andrew Z. (Struthers, OH): How does the Indians selection of Lindor effect last year's third round selection Tony Wolters?

Kevin Goldstein II: Wolters more of a 2B long term anyway.

dantroy (davis): Did the medicals scare teams on Rendon?

Kevin Goldstein II: Some teams, yes.

Tony (OKC): Cox and Wong taken by Cards in last 2 drafts - both currently 2B - where do they fit on the field together? BTW - very hard to resist a Cox/Wong joke.

Kevin Goldstein II: I laughed, but hey, it's late. Cox is not a second baseman, no way that guy plays up the middle in the big leagues.

Wayne Gretzky (LA): Will my son, Trevor, get drafted tommorow?

Kevin Goldstein II: Depends. Lots of people think he's determined to go to college.

Will (Rochester, NY): When can we realistically expect to see Gerrit Cole in the majors? And does Cole supplant Taillon as the Pittsburgh's top prospect?

Kevin Goldstein II: 2013. As for your second question, ask me in four months.

@kcopen (alameda, ca): Tell my fellow Mets fan who hates the Nimmo pick to check out Mets beat reporters raving about his conference call. Mature, polished at 18. I'm excited. Now give me Josh Bell.

Kevin Goldstein II: Who did Mets fans WANT them to take? I'm totally baffled to hear Mets fans are upset.

delatopia (the 415): What's Sonny Gray's ETA? Late 2012 as a reliever, 2013 as a starter? Thanks, awesome work today.

Kevin Goldstein II: That's about right. Thanks for wanting to hang with me for much of the day.

moehk21 (NYC): WHAT ABOUT TANNER FUDGE. I feel like I ask about him all the time but never get an answer?

Kevin Goldstein II: Missed the whole year due to injury. Very disappointing.

Josh G (Sacramento): Another Panik question-Is he a 2B the day be enters pro ball or will he got a chance to play his way off SS?

Kevin Goldstein II: B.

Stephen A. Lauer (Boston): Hi Kevin, good to see you up late. What were the bonus demands that caused Dillon Howard to drop? Without an exorbitant bonus figure, seemed like he was too talented not to go in the top 60.

Kevin Goldstein II: I never saw a number on Howard, but he is a Boras kid.

Marissa (Las Vegas): Which team are you picking to win the Stanley Cup?

Kevin Goldstein II: What is that? Soccer?

Sted (Iraq): Cups of Coffee you had today, 5 and a half. Over or Under?

Kevin Goldstein II: 5.5 under. I don't drink coffee.

NatsGM (Bethesda): Any rumors as to Rendon's "drop" to #6?

Kevin Goldstein II: Once Seattle passed, it was almost bound to happen, as Arizona, Baltimore and Kansas City were locked in on pitching.

yoram (Toronto): If the Jays manage to sign Beade, at which level is he likely to start out? ETA 2013?

Kevin Goldstein II: No. He's a high school kid, and not a quick mover. He'll be in the Florida State League in 2013.

Jimmy (NJ): Hey Kevin, great work today. I'm a Mets fan and I am very excited about the two picks they took today. Not so much that I am convinced they'll pan out, but because we didn't just go with the safe pick. I also have faith in DePodesta and the head scout ... they obviously saw something in Nimmo to take him this high. I won't complain (maybe I'll do that in four years if Nimmo is still in A-Ball)

Kevin Goldstein II: Positive Mets fan is positive!

Negra Modelo (The Freezer): Cigs you've burned today, 1.5 packs. Over/under?

Kevin Goldstein II: Under. I was stuck at the computer so much, and I smoke outside.

Steve (Nova Scotia): Kevin, how do we fix the draft? I'm opposed to hard slotting but at the same time, I think it's silly when a player like Bell is going to slide at least into the 2nd round when he's a top 15 pick based on talent.

Kevin Goldstein II: We let teams trade picks, but hard slots would potentially destroy baseball.

Tony (Albuquerqu): "as Arizona, Baltimore and Kansas City were locked in on pitching." thus the royals picked Starling...

Kevin Goldstein II: Hey it's late. I missed one.

Adam (Minneapolis): Appreciate your draft analysis, KG. How soon do you see Levi Michael playing in the bigs AND do the Twins have any shot at signing Harrison?

Kevin Goldstein II: Twins definitely have a shot at Harrison. I see Michael as a legit SS in the bigs. Solid but unspectacular, but for an every day shortstop, that's pretty good.

LSB (TX): Do you think the Rangers get one of Howard/Norris/Bell tomorrow?

Kevin Goldstein II: Gotta say, I think a later-round shot at Bell for the Rangers could be in the cards.

Maggie (Tinley Park, IL): Why didn't Susac get selected? Thought he was a guy before the draft.

Kevin Goldstein II: Again, I got really mixed reports on him.

WisconsinRob (Madison): Maybe a debate for another time, but why would hard slots kill baseball?

Kevin Goldstein II: Full piece on this coming soon.

Bobby (Vancouver): What do scouts think of a High School player that smokes? Does this get mentioned in the scouting report?

Kevin Goldstein II: I've never seen it, but I can imagine it doesn't bode well.

Yoram (Toronto): Does Rendon have the defensive chops to play 2B? If not, where do you think the Nats will play him with 3B blocked?

Kevin Goldstein II: I can't see him up the middle as a pro. That said, you don't NOT take him because you have a big leaguer. It will figure itself out.

delatopia (the 415): Starling: Royals playing things close to the vest the last month, someone higher up pulling some strings, all their favorites gone? All of the above?

Kevin Goldstein II: A and C, but mostly C.

92-93 (Toronto): I have an odd question. Have you ever talked to a scout that you thought was racist?

Kevin Goldstein II: Yes.

Moral Thumper (In The Clouds): Considering cigs are bad for you, why do you smoke?

Kevin Goldstein II: God forbid I have a moment of joy.

R.A. Wagman (Toronto): Which fan base has asked the most questions tonight?

Kevin Goldstein II: Rays and Jays in the big lead. I'm guessing it's all the picks.

Petey (TC): Why do the Twins love fat pitchers who can't throw hard?

Kevin Goldstein II: I love fat pitchers no matter what they throw.

Kevin Goldstein II: Ok, folks. It's nearly 1am ET and I got radio starting at 6:20am. I'm gassed. Thanks for spending much of the day with me, you guys are the best.