Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Kevin Goldstein

Chat: Kevin Goldstein

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday June 06, 2011 5:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Goldstein.

Join Kevin for a pre-draft chat, then head back here for his wrap-up chat.

Kevin Goldstein: Hey kids, I'm here, but I'm finishing up a call with a source, some gimme just a couple of seconds.

E (Houston): Do you think Josh Bell heads to Austin?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he goes in the first round to Boston, Tampa Bay or Texas.

Aaron (Los Angeles): Kevin, do you have any more information regarding the pre-draft agreement that the Brewers may have with a player?

Kevin Goldstein: There is a rumor that they have a deal with Javier Baez at #12 -- that's just a rumor, but there seems to be significant smoke there.

Scott (Orange County): Just heard a rumor that the Angels have a deal with Norris at #17. Heard anything about that?

Kevin Goldstein: Like I said in the mock, the number of names attached to the Angels with that pick is unfathomable. Norris certainly makes sense, but it could be any number of guys.

Will (Boston): Where do you see Tyler Beede ending up? Think he still drops all the way to the Tigers as you did in your mock? Possible for Red Sox at 36 or 40?

Kevin Goldstein: Certainly possible. Going to come down to just how much teams believe his "Don't draft me, I'm going to Vanderbilt" letter.

Sam (St. Louis): There's been some wishing around the interwebs that the Royals picked someone unsignable last year, giving them two top-six picks in a better draft. While that might not be realistic, where would Christian Colon have slotted in this year's crop?

Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere in the middle of the first round, which was where he realistically slotted last year.

Shane (Pittsburgh): Kevin, who are some players that could slip to the second round because of bonus demands or any other reason?

Kevin Goldstein: Brandon Nimmo is the big name wanting big money that it's hard to find a first-round home for.

Juice (Baltimore): If Hultzen lands with the O's, when is the earliest he could be up? Next summer? Is he more than this years Mike Minor?

Kevin Goldstein: I could see him ready by late 2012 yes. Most polished pitcher in the draft.

Tom (Baltimore): On a 1-10 scale, how stupid are the O's for passing on Bundy? Are they just going cheap again?

Kevin Goldstein: I understand the argument for going with someone else. I don't AGREE with it, but I understand it, at least.

Andrew Z. (Struthers, OH): Archie Bradley to Baltimore seems to be gaining some steam. Is there still a chance he lands in Cleveland?

Kevin Goldstein: Still a chance! But yes, that's gaining serious steam.

Scott44 (My Palatial Estate): KG - How does Lindor's bat grade, both now and future, against Machado? Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: Machado is a better hitter. Lindor can hit, but Machado offers for more potential with the bat. Lindor is the better shortstop however. Total package edge still goes to Machado.

Norm (Chicago): I bought the rope and am about to google instructions on tying a noose based on your answer...are the Cubs serious about the Cuban defector?? The results thus far with Hayden Simpson would lead me to believe they'd have to play it safe.

Kevin Goldstein: Rumor is that Tim Wilkin will, and I quote "shock the world again". That said, the Speck rumor is already quieting down, based on money.

Ben F. (California): Can you shed some some light on why Springer is dropping to the A's in a lot of mock drafts? Coming into the season he was talked about as a top 5 pick.

Kevin Goldstein: The holes in his swing were exposed and he just wasn't as good as people hoped for. I think think it's doubtful he gets that far. However, if for some reason Springer IS at 18, he's not getting past Oakland.

Dayton Moore (Kansas City): If Bubba Starling and Dylan Bundy are both on the board at #5, who should I pick?

Kevin Goldstein: I'd take Bundy, I wouldn't laugh at you for taking Starling.

Gevin Koldstein (DeKalb, IA): Any clue as to what round M. Purke is selected?

Kevin Goldstein: HUGE wild card. All I can say is it sure doesn't look like he'll go in the first. Somebody will pop him before the end of the second I bet just to make a run at him.

Mike (Tejas): Please tell me the Astros aren't taking Chris Reed at No. 11.

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think so.

Evan (St. Louis): Can you see the Cardinals spending big on someone that slips because of signability this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Not CRAZY big, but I could see them going over slot for a more expensive high school arm like Norris or Guerreri.

Scott44 (My Palatial Estate): Money and signability aside, where does Josh Bell rate for you from this year's draft class?

Kevin Goldstein: As good a hitter as anyone in the high school crop. Not sure anyone can match his power ceiling.

Tony (The guy with a 20 Fastball after eating wendy's): Bundy to the Royals, how much is that based off of info you hear coming out of thier FO, info from other source and just default pick?

Kevin Goldstein: Mostly B. Royals play it pretty close to the vest; so this is based on industry speculation. The most interesting thing about that speculation is that they seem to be OFF Bauer and Hultzen.

TGisriel (Baltimore): Is there any validity in the saying that "There is not such thing as a pitching prospect"?

Kevin Goldstein: No.

Sam (St. Louis): This close to the draft, what is the craziest possibility you've heard for the top six picks that could kind of, maybe, conceivably happen?

Kevin Goldstein: Lindor at 2. If that happens, everything kind of explodes as I think teams from 2-6 would stay the course and Rendon would plummet.

Michael Lunardi (Bristol): How many picks would you need to get right to feel happy with your mock draft?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't count exact. My goal is to tell you courses and ways of thinking. What I'm trying to say is that if I say Las Vegas will pick Smith, but I also tell you they like Johnson and Thompson, and they take Thompson, I feel like I did my job well for you. Plus, the mock went up this morning and tons changes today.

Joseph (DC): What's the earliest you could see Josh Bell getting taken?

Kevin Goldstein: Boston at 19.

Scott44 (My Palatial Estate): KG - Have listened to you many times about BIG RHP and there's no one bigger than Alex Meyer! Where do you think he might land? Think the Red Sox might try and get him again?

Kevin Goldstein: Certainly COULD happen at 19, don't think he'll get past the mid-20s.

Ace (San Francisco): Curious - is there any logic to TB going nuts with their picks (Nimmo, Bell, Purke) on the basis that anyone they don't sign gets them a similar pick next year? Ie, with 12 packs, that's probably better budgetary-wise as well.

Kevin Goldstein: No. They're not going to do that. You draft kids to sign them.

JH (Chicago): If Rendon does plummet because of Lindor at 2 and/or injury concerns, how far could he realistically fall?

Kevin Goldstein: 7-9?

Wally (DC): When you (and others ) rank players, are they essentially ranked according to 'most value over first 6 controllable MLB seasons' (projected, obviously)

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think that way. I think just best.

Scott44 (My Palatial Estate): Besides Rendon, and possibly Purke, any other potential first/second rounders that have questions marks due to injury that you know about?

Kevin Goldstein: The other TCU pitcher, Winkler, has an arm problem that's taken him out of first round consideration.

preams (San diego): How big of a factor will sign ability play for the padres at ten? The connections to Archie were encouraging on that front, no?

Kevin Goldstein: Indications are that they're willing to spend.

Brian (North Side): Why did no one know about the Cuban until now? And why is he eligible for the draft, instead of a free agent like Aroldis Chapman and Noel Arguelles?

Kevin Goldstein: Because he defected to the U.S., so he's a U.S. guy, and he's in the draft. See Escobar, Yunel.

tdewan (Torrance, CA): Best case scenario for the Mets at 13?

Kevin Goldstein: Some good college player. Good, but nothing great.

Tom Rickets (Bankruptcy Court): Why doesn't Tom Wilken "shock the world" in the second or third round instead of the first round in one of the better drafts?

Kevin Goldstein: Because he doesn't care what the industry thinks, he cares what he thinks, and you have to respect that. The Cuban thing is just a rumor, not an absolute, but it's fun!

Andrew Z. (Struthers, OH): If Archie Bradley does land in Baltimore, does Cleveland go safe with a guy like Jed Bradley or do they break trend and draft a guy like Lindor?

Kevin Goldstein: It's a great question. They'll need ownership approval to spend big, so it's hard to say. I'd love Archie there, but would hate Jed.

Bud Selig (Milwaukee): Do I need to fix the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: You've broken it enough as-is, and could potentially really hurt baseball with future moves.

Steve M. (Shady Lane): Am I wrong to look at Cole and see Ben McDonald?

Kevin Goldstein: Not sure what they have in common other than being good college pitchers and right-handed.

medeaschild (Los Angeles): Recently, you compared Cole and Hultzen by saying that Cole was likely to win 200 major league games, but Hultzen was more likely to win 100 major league games. Would you mind elaborating on that? Also, I've read one article indicating that Danny Hultzen was an injury risk. Agree/Disagree?

Kevin Goldstein: No idea who said Hultzen was an injury risk, but nobody in the industry thinks so. With Cole and Hultzen, I'm basically saying Hultzen has a much better chance to be a big league contributor, but Cole has a much better chance to be an impact pitcher.

ncarter1 (London, England): Kevin, on today of all days, the question we all want to know is "what are you drinking?". And will the liquor store still be open when you finish?

Kevin Goldstein: Already stocked. Just on blood orange soda for now.

Stump (Missouri): What percent chance, rounded to the nearest odd whole number, is there that the Royals take someone outside the consensus top six players?

Kevin Goldstein: 3%

Greg (Boston): KG, thanks for chatting on this hectic but great day. Hopefully I phrase this correctly....to what extent do you think teams get locked in on a player? For example, it's pretty clear that Rendon will not be available past the first few picks, but for the sake of argument, what if he's there for a team to take in that 10-12 range? Did they commit the resources to take a look at him enough? They may have a relatively short list of players they're considering with a pick right there. So if Rendon falls are they thinking A) Wow! Rendon is here. We have to take him or B) Why is Rendon here? What did we miss? F it...let's take this guy we saw 10 times this year. Sorry for a confusing question.

Kevin Goldstein: It's actually a really good question. There are certainly guys you don't waste your time seeing. I'm sure teams in the 20s didn't spend much time at UCLA games this year. That said, they DO still see them, and they've had plenty of eyes on Rendon just because they might be looking at other Rice players or their opponents.

Vision (Springfield, MO): Thanks for the chat today. Should be a fun day! Callis has the Cards taking Wong at 22, please tell me you haven't heard a strong correlation for the Cards and Wong.

Kevin Goldstein: Pick makes sense, but haven't heard it specifically. I really like Wong.

laxtonto (in the lab): Is it possible to see Bell slip into the supplemental round to Texas or if he is available at 33 they have to take him then?

Kevin Goldstein: They have to take him then.

Minneapolitan (Nashville): When I look at the field of predicted picks (and the rationale for them) for the Twins at #30, I kind of get the feeling that it's about a 50/50 mix of the Twins' known preferences from previous drafts and the available guys who fit that profile. Is that because: a)I'm wrong b)It's hard to get hard info for pick #30 or c)the Twins don't really tip their hand except for having known preferences?

Kevin Goldstein: Combination of B. and C.

Peter7899 (Chicago): If Bell really is one of the best high school bats available... why wouldn't teams drafting in the top half of the round supposedly taking the "best player available" pop for him?

Kevin Goldstein: because saying you are one of the best high school hitters in THIS draft ain't saying a ton.

Corey (San Diego): Why is no one talking about the Padres spending big on this draft? 5 picks in top 58. Do they take a chance on Nimmo at 25?

Kevin Goldstein: That would shock me. It's not that teams don't like Nimmo, it's that they don't like him for the money he wants.

Vision (MO): I've always subscribed to the theory you don't take 2B'men in the 1st round unless they have a special bat. You feel Wong has a special bat? I thought he was more projected solid on-base with little pop and not a ton of speed or gold glove defense?

Kevin Goldstein: I think towards the end of the first, he makes sense. I really like him as kind of a future Wally Backman with a little more pop and no platoon issues.

Mike (Tejas): Is Bobby Heck well respected within the baseball community?

Kevin Goldstein: Very much so.

Jacob (Kansas City): I have seen some mock drafts having the Royals taking Barnes. If this happens, is it a sign that Dayton Moore does not having the backing of ownership like he used to?

Kevin Goldstein: It's a sign of SOMETHING weird, but I don't know what.

Bret (Toronto): Has this Speck stuff you just Tweeted all gone down today? Or has this been going on in the background and no reporters caught on into it (likely for good reason)?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, and here's some breaking news, as this letter just came from the commissioner's office (thanks mole!)

We understand that Gus Dominguez has contacted Clubs for the purpose of asserting that Onelki Garcia is not eligible for the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, which begins this evening. Consistent with the attached, which Joel Araujo sent to your attention on Saturday, June 4, please be advised that the Office of the Commissioner has determined that Garcia has established residency in the United States and is therefore subject to the 2011 First-Year Player Draft.

Based on the information we have received regarding Garcia's residency status, it is our understanding that Garcia established residency and began working out in the United States in February 2011. We have repeatedly requested that Gus Dominguez provide us with documentary evidence supporting his claim that Garcia is a legal resident of a country other than the United States, but no such information has been provided to us. The Office of the Commissioner is, of course, unable to declare a player ineligible for the Rule 4 Draft based solely on the bare assertions of his representative that he is not a resident of the United States within the meaning of Major League Rule 4. As a result, the Office of the Commissioner has determined that Garcia is subject to the First-Year Player Draft.

Please let me know if you have any questions.

Stump (Missouri): This is the dumbest question I'll ask - promise - but...In a draft like MLB's, where picks can't be traded, what is the value in keeping your player preferences under wraps? That is, are the Orioles really any more likely to select Hultzen if they know the Royals like him? Wouldn't they just take who they liked?

Kevin Goldstein: They don't care who the Royals like. The is often communication from teams to those below them as a courtesy.

Jacob (KC): Do you think that Bundy could be up by 2014 if drafted?

Kevin Goldstein: I do.

Leslie (in Burleson): If the league allowed trading draft picks do you major league teams would be willing to trade contributing major leaguers to move up in the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. Can you imagine the packages Washington would have been offered last year for Harper?

disc (Cuba!): I don't get it. Why doesn't Speck's agent want him to be drafted?

Kevin Goldstein: So he can be a free agent! More money!

Every Single Team ((All Around MLB)): "Um, we have some questions"

Kevin Goldstein: I laughed.

Scott (Orange County): Who is Gus Dominguez?

Kevin Goldstein: The Cuban lefty's agent.

Justin (Tinley Park): Does anyone know much about Speck and is he 1st round material?

Kevin Goldstein: I know he's 23. I know he has above-average velo. I know he has a pretty good power curve.

Matt (St Louis): Since I found out about his existence, I'm weirdly obsessed with Dante Bichette Jr. When do you expect him to go?

Kevin Goldstein: Could go in the supplemental 1st, more likely second round. He looks a lot like his dad, too.

Peter7899 (Chicago): This is a little damn late to be going through this right now isn't it??

Kevin Goldstein: C'mon, this is fun!

roger (mi): If the Pirates take Hultzen, how would the next 4 picks play out?

Kevin Goldstein: Cole, Bauer . . . hmmmm.

Imperialism32 (NJ): When does this party move to ESPN, 6:00 or 7?

Kevin Goldstein: 6:30 ET. But I'm stopping here in ten to eat and stuff. After the draft, back here.

Tigerdog (Orange, CA): Any chance that Josh Bell falls all the way to the Tigers at 76?

Kevin Goldstein: No.

Kevin (Boston): I assume that Andrew Chafin's recent performance gets him into the back of the 1st round? (Had kind of been hoping he slipped to the Phillies at 39.)

Kevin Goldstein: The numbers were good, but the stuff was still a bit off from early in the year. I don't think he's going in the first and could be there at 39, but he's not a Phillies kind of pick. He is one of my non-first round favorites though.

Brian (Nashville): Gun to your head - in 5 years from now, who is the player everyone will look back on and thinks how was he not drafted much earlier?

Kevin Goldstein: Might just be Lindor.

Neal Huntington (Pittsburgh, PA): With the first pick in the 2011 MLB Draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates select... Onelki Garcia!

Kevin Goldstein: That is my dream . . . that is my nightmare.

JimBeau (Left Coast): Before you go KG...most likely at 8 if tis not a Bradley?

Kevin Goldstein: A more boring college arm like Gray or Barnes.

dianagramr (NYC): Where is Jason?

Kevin Goldstein: At his apartment in Brooklyn, says he's currently writing an article for BP.

Josh (NY): Any New Developments with the Mets pick at 13?

Kevin Goldstein: Nothing crazy. Still the usual college suspects.

Peter7899 (Chicago): I'm guessing there are rules against this, but what if an American born player established residency, oh let's say in Venezuela. Would he then be able to be an international FA?

Kevin Goldstein: You are correct. There are rules for this.

Your Twitter Follower (Twitter & BP Chat): Tweeting and chatting??!! How do you do it?!

Kevin Goldstein: I'm fading away!

Mike (CT): Could Swihart fall to the sandwich round due to signability?

Kevin Goldstein: He could, but he's also one of many players connected to the two Boston picks.

Tim (DC): If Starling is gone, do the Nats go best pitcher available or would they look at Lindor?

Kevin Goldstein: If Starling is gone, that means a really good pitcher is suddenly available.

adamsternum (Paris, France): How can you have Garrett Cole going 1/1 when he clearly doesn't draw enough walks to be effective in the majors?????

Kevin Goldstein: Gary Brown fans unite!

perhaps (Chicago): Odds that the Cubs/Speck thing was floated by the Cubs as a maneuver to see if any team above them bites and a better talent falls to them?

Kevin Goldstein: 0.000000%. I'm not saying it's true, but no way that was the strategy.

Bernie (Brew Town USA): Any chance the Brewers wind up with Lindor @ 12 and Baez @ 15? Would be a great young SS-3B duo to bring through the system together.

Kevin Goldstein: I have a hard time seeing Lindor drop that far.

l2uff (brewerscubs.com): any team in top 8 crazy enough to take this Garcia guy so I don't have to watch the cubs "shock the world again?"

Kevin Goldstein: No, they are not.

John (TN): Could you provide us with a direct link to your ESPN chat, either here or on your twitter feed? Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: You can't type espn.com and then click on mlb?

Daniel Norris fan club (Science Hill): Any buzz on who takes Daniel Norris?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, he threw a big number out there (just under 4 million) and that scared some teams off. Angels at 17 and Cardinals at 22 are both good fits.

Dallas Comegys (Chicago): When did Gus Dominguez get out of jail?

Kevin Goldstein: Nicely played. Assist from Kenny Patterson.

Mike (Queens): Why don't the Mets dream big and break the bank for Josh Bell at 13?

Kevin Goldstein: You know why!

roarke (Missouri): I thought that the Royals rationale for taking a pitcher was that they could get a college arm that could join the current crop of prospects in hitting the majors at about the same time. If they are abandoning that for a high school player that will take longer to develop, why not take local product Starling, instead of a Bauer? Is it a money thing?

Kevin Goldstein: Why take the local kid just because he's local?

BenFeldman (SF): Obviously the comps between Bradley and Hobgood are ridiculous. Having said that, would this a semi-signability move for the Orioles - or do you buy that they generally prefer Bradley to everyone else on the board?

Kevin Goldstein: If you mean Archie, Archie has thrown out an 8-figure number. That is NOT a signability pick by ANY stretch.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, I have 29 minutes to eat and get ready for stuff. I'll be on the cover-it-live stuff at espn beginning in half an hour (6:30 ET) and then once the draft is over, it's back over here for post-game stuff. ENJOY!