Baseball Prospectus - Chat with John Perrotto

Chat: John Perrotto

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday May 18, 2011 1:00 PM ET chat session with John Perrotto.

Go on the beat (trench coat optional) with BP's jolly John Perrotto.

John Perrotto: Hi everyone, thanks for joining in. Let's talk some baseball!

HonusCobb (Hopedale, IL): Injuries are plaguing my team at the moment. - Joe Mauer - Pablo Sandoval - Andrew Bailey - And now Ike Davis Which first baseman do you think will have the most value in the short term? - Brett Wallace (who I picked up and can quickly drop) - Mitch Moreland - Eric Hosmer

John Perrotto: I'll jump on the Eric Hosmer bandwagon here. He's made a pretty smooth transition to the major leagues and is also showing power. I like Wallace a lot, too, but he plays on a bad team, which cuts down on his RBI opportunities.

mmaurer016 (Florida): Whats your aproximation for Strasburg's return and your accessed trade value for him. I can keep him for the next four years in a 20 team head to head league

John Perrotto: The Nationals have been very conservative with his rehab and I believe they will continue to follow that path. Thus, I'd say he will not pitch in a major-league game this season. As far as keeping him, absolutely. I think, barring something unforeseen in his comeback from Tommy John, he's going to be one of the game's elite pitchers.

Dan (New York): By taking himself out of the lineup, didn't Jorge Posada actually give the Yankees a better chance of winning?

John Perrotto: Not as much as you might think. I'm not convinced that Andruw Jones is a better option. At least, Posada is still taking some walks and hitting with some power --- when he actually hits the ball, that is.

Bill (New Mexico): When they did the Tommy John surgery on Jaime Garcia a couple of years ago, whose left arm did they graft on, Warren Spahn's or John Tudor's? Put more prosaically, how long does this tantalizing left-handed unhittability last?

John Perrotto: Well, Warren Spahn is dead, but I'm pretty sure arms are not part of the organ donor program. :) Garcia is going to progress to the mean at some point but I really believe he is going to be a top-shelf starter for many years to come. He's got pretty good stuff and a good idea of what to do with it.

Matt (Whippleville, NY): John, if you were running the Mets, would you trade Reyes to the highest bidder or keep him and avoid risking alienating the fanbase?

John Perrotto: I'd have to trade him. They don't have the money to re-sign him and they need as much young talent as they can get. As far as alienating the fan base, I think they've already done that.

SnakeDoctor18 (NY): Hey John, in my 6x6 roto league, my starting pitchers are Haren, Hanson, Hudson, Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, Morrow, Matusz, Ogando, and Drabek. I could use an additional bat and was offered Eric Hosmer for Brandon Morrow, you think I should take it?

John Perrotto: Indeed, I'd make that trade. I like Morrow but Hosmer is in a class above him. Go make that trade right now before the other guy read this.

SnakeDoctor18 (NY): Hey John, you think guys like Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, and Alexi Ogando should be held onto or sold for 2011?

John Perrotto: Of the three, I'd be most apt to hold onto Drabek but I'd be willing to give up any of the three if I felt I was getting a really good deal.

SnakeDoctor18 (NY): Hey John, what are your thoughts on Mitch Moreland and Matt LaPorta for 2011?

John Perrotto: I don't think either guy is ever going to become big home run hitters. They'll hit about 15 homers each and drive in a fair share of runs. They aren't premier first baseman but they are not complete zeros, either.

Dan (Beaver Falls, Pa): John, who do you see the Pirates selecting at 1-1?

John Perrotto: Danny Hultzen. They want to take advantage of the window of opportunity where they are able to afford McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata and Alvarez and Hultzen is more of a sure bet to be a solid pitcher in the 2013 rotation than Gerrit Cole, even though he has better stuff.

Aceball (Reno): Did the Giants do a lousy job of constructing their team considering they have a lot of loose parts that dont fit together well? Im starting to think Tejada was a good signing. I think he is about to hit well and he made a good defensive play yesterday. I'm looking forward to Sandoval getting back. He has shown a lot of committment. What do you do about all the other guys, like the outfielders. All good guys, but do they fit together well? And, am I the only person who thinks Jonathen Sanchez should be someone else's project?

John Perrotto: Well, they actually did most of the construction last season and decided to keep a championship team together. I don't if that was such a good idea, though. It was obviously they had a flawed lineup and the only move they made was to trade for Miguel Tejada. I've got to disagree you because I just don't think Tejada is a useful player anymore.

Ron (LA): Who's winning the Stanley Cup this season?

John Perrotto: The Lightning.

commish (nyc): Aside from Harper, Trout, Montero & Brown, and with Hosmer, Hellockson, Chaoman & Teheran now in the majors, who occupies the remaining spots in the Top 10 at this point.

John Perrotto: While I should defer to Kevin Goldstein on this question, I'd have to say Mike Moustakas is right there with those guys. That's five. Then let's say John Lamb, Jameson Taillon, Matt Moore and Shelby Miller.

goiter6 (MN): What are the odds that Aaron Cunningham gets a shot in the Padres outfield this year?

John Perrotto: Less than 50-50. He doesn't seem too high up on their pecking order anymore.

Steve (Iraq): Give me one good reason why a team should stick to the MLB slot recommendations for draft picks.

John Perrotto: To make Bud Selig happy.

Aaron (YYZ): Who do you think is the next guy to nab a closer job? I'm talking about unheralded guys like John Axford last year as opposed to the sexy setup guys from the preseason like Daniel Bard and Jake McGee.

John Perrotto: I'll say Kevin Jepsen of the Angels.

Charlie (Bethesda, MD): Are Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa going to hit this year?

John Perrotto: Espinosa yet, Desmond no. I think Espinosa is going to be one of those guys who quietly has a very good career.

CrisE (St Paul, MN): Twins question: what was the bigger mistake last winter, having no good backup to Mauer or hoping everything would pan out in the bullpen?

John Perrotto: That's a tough, tough call but I'm going to say believing they could rebuild half their bullpen internally. Backup catchers aren't hard to find, though the Twins haven't found one.

Cris E (St Paul, MN): The AL Central is so messed up now it's hard to see where the hot starts end and the hard realities begin. As we enter summer should CLE consider making moves to win the division, or stay the course and continue to build for the future? How late is too late for MIN, and what goes into a "next year" decision for them? How do you see this div ending up in Oct?

John Perrotto: I believe the Indians are legit but I also think they are one starting pitcher short. They remind of the 2010 Padres in that they are relying on a lot of young starters. The Padres' starters faded late in the year and there no veterans to pick up the slack. As far as the Twins, the bottom line is they are 13 1/2 games out and 14 under .500. It might be early but it's getting early late and I just don't see any signs that tell me they are going to turn things around this season.

dianagramr (NYC): Domonic Brown will be starting in the OF for the Phillies by ____?

John Perrotto: 2012.

Cris E (St Paul, MN): Lots of bad owners out there, and word is that Crane isn't exactly Scrooge McDuck when it comes to ready cash. At what point does Selig start biting the bullet and really judging potential owners on financial heft rather than amiability?

John Perrotto: Building consensus is Bud's style and he's not going to change at this point in his life. If there is a sea change, it'll come under the next commish, though I'm starting to believe Bud is going to be in the job forever and never die.

buffum (Austin TX): What the heck is Frank Coonelly thinking getting into a scuffle with a bar owner who discounts beer pitchers when the Pirates lose? Does he have no PR sense at all?

John Perrotto: The entire organization has no PR sense at all. With the exception of the Los Angeles Clippers, they are the biggest joke in pro sports, especially with Bob Nutting and Coonelly at the top.

John Perrotto: Well it looks like that is all the questions we have today. Thanks so much for all the insightful questions. I enjoyed them.