Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Kevin Goldstein

Chat: Kevin Goldstein

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday January 03, 2011 2:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Goldstein.

Check in with BP's Kevin Goldstein as we move into our 16th year of online baseball coverage.

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Only have about an hour or so (I say that now) before getting back to the Dodgers Top 11, so I'll answer as many questions as I can.

Caroline (Boston): Predictable Boston question is predictable: do the Red Sox still have a top-10 system?

Kevin Goldstein: Not even close. Trades and graduations have gutted the system. Certainly enough young talent for a potential move up.

Bryan (Illinois): Who do you believe is the top prospect this year?

Kevin Goldstein: You'll have to wait like everyone else.

Rob (Chicago): Call me crazy, but Michael Jordan showed pretty decent numbers from a guy who was randomly stuck into AA. His OBP was almost 90 points higher than his AVG. You think he could've improved if given more time (and not, for some crazy reason, go back to being the best player in basketball?).

Kevin Goldstein: You are NOT crazy. I actually think Jordan's .202/.289/.266 line in Double-A was an incredible athletic achievement.

Dave (Chicago): Outside of Grant Green, Chris Carter, and maybe Ian Krol, is there anyone in the A's system you like?

Kevin Goldstein: You're missing someone I put in the Top 101 . . .

The Dude (Home of the Champs!): What's with Arte Moreno? Going into the offseason, the speculation was that he would spend what it took to get back into contention but now he seems like someone who doesn't want to spend the money?

Kevin Goldstein: Based on talking to people in the industry, it seems at times like the Angels are VERY busy in the free agent market, but they are never willing to go over the top on anyone, and the teams that do that are the teams that get the players. By logic, every FA is over paid, because they can take the top offer, while the Angels seem unwilling to go past making fair offers for guys.

kcroyalsguy (KC): Assuming Wil Myers moves off of catcher do you see him in LF or RF? I would think left with Hosmer more than likely moving to the OF as he breaks into the majors.

Kevin Goldstein: I would say right field. Very good athlete, more than enough arm.

harpago17 (Atlanta): Can you give any indication where Aaron Shipman is on your A's Top 11 (or if he's even on it)?

Kevin Goldstein: After Dodgers (Tuesday), you'll get the Angels and then the A's, so coming soon!

Cris E (St Paul, MN): So what do you bring to a ballgame? Do you have a lot of junk in a big bag like some older woman with too many cats, or just a smartphone with a bluetooth radar gun, or some more normal combination in between? How many broad-brimmed hats or Hawaiian shirts do you own? How can you be spotted at the park?

Kevin Goldstein: I bring my Droid and a notebook, but that notebook will likely be replaced this year with an Ipad once the Ipad 2 comes out, as I'm ready to buy my first Apple product ever. I sit behind home plate with the scouts and the trackers, so I don't really need a gun. No Hawaiian shirts, but plenty of hats. Look for the big guy with the hat and the silver hoop in his ear, you can't miss me. And say hello!

rogero (Philly): Why do you keep picking questions in order to tell us what you can't tell us?

Kevin Goldstein: I can't answer that.

Scott44 (San Diego): Podcast question. You were mentioning putting together your top 101 list and the guy that you've got really highly ranked right now, more so than most. Without giving away who he is, can you at least tell us what division he plays in? thanks, props to you and Jason.

Kevin Goldstein: He will be a five-star prospect on a list that comes out this week.

Vic31 (Newark, NJ): Jason Kipnis is a guy you've really touted this year. As an offensive minded 2bman, what kind of power/avg./speed combo are we talking if all goes right?

Kevin Goldstein: .300 hitter with 12-18 home runs and solid 1 per 10 walk rate.

Gotribe31 (D.C.): You indicated in the Indians top 11 that you saw Knapp as a bullpen guy. I know his injury history is shaky, but he's still really young and his delivery looks cleaner now than it did when he came over from Philly. No chance he starts long-term?

Kevin Goldstein: Certainly some non-zero chance, but I don't like the odds. Effort in the delivery, injury history and far more thrower than pitcher with very little feel for the craft. That all points to a bullpen future, but he's young enough to change people's minds.

Beau (San Francisco): So Kevin, what are you drinking?

Kevin Goldstein: Coca-Cola hecha en Mexico.

southsidepride (Illinois): Is it safe to say that Zach Wheeler could have the same impact that Cain and Bumgarner have had for the Giants?

Kevin Goldstein: It's safe to say that his ceiling is very very high and he's an excellent breakout candidate for 2011 if he can get past the blister problems.

Prospect Guesser (NYC): The mystery Top 101 guy ... if a Dodger, is it Trayvon Robinson?

Kevin Goldstein: Actually, he IS in the Top 101, but I don't think that should be a surprise.

Trevor (Miami, FL): Kevin, Marlins system is down after graduating their top talent. With that said, how impressed were you with Mike Stanton this year and do you think he can raise his average or is he more a .270 hitter? thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: I think realistically he is a .260-.280 hitter and no more, but he's also the most likely player to hit 50+ home runs at some point over the next five years.

marjinwalker (DC): I can't for the life of me figure out what the Rays are doing. Can you? Will they really start the year with Jennings and Hellickson on the minors (or, in Hellickson's case, at least not in the rotation) while still having gaping holes in their lineup? Will the trade market for Garza and/or Shields really be better during the season than it is now?

Kevin Goldstein: I'm confused as well, but I do think Jennings gets 400+ ABs and Hellickson gets 20+ starts in the majors this year.

Kdub34 (La la land): KG - Looking forward to the Angels Top 11. Trout as good as advertised or overrated for you?

Kevin Goldstein: As good as advertised. So him in person several times in 2010 and was blown away EVERY TIME.

Jquinton82 (NY): Happy New Year KG! Whats the outlook for injured prospects Jared Mitchel, Ryan Westmoreland, and Casey Crosby?

Kevin Goldstein: What up James! Mitchell looked very rusty in Arizona, and it's bothersome because he's the kind of prospect who really needs reps as a player who is quite raw for his age. There is still no official timetable (if any) on Westmoreland, but he was doing some hitting off a tee in the fall. As for Crosby, he's also firmly in that mystery category, and on a medical level, his elbow LOOKS fine, but he could never throw without pain. We won't know how he is until this spring.

Twitter-phobe (NYC): As someone who grades out as an 80 on the Tweet-freq scale, is one of your resolutions by chance to back off a bit? Seems you're basically doing a chat a day via Twitter ... when you could be doing a chat a day via ... BP.

Kevin Goldstein: I find Twitter to be a ridiculous medium, so I choose to act ridiculously. Therefore I love Twitter and no, I will not stop.

Ben F. (California): It seems that there isn't as much excitement regarding Lonnie Chisenhall as there was a year ago despite a solid year at AA. Is that just that he surprised a lot of people in 2009 and had big expectations in 2010, or is something else?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he's one of those players that maybe takes an unfair hit because he's not really sexy. He's a good hitter with good power, but it's hard to see him turning into a superstar. Good prospects are incredibly valuable as well.

Gotribe31 (DC): What do you make of Alex White? Solid periphrials, but didn't really miss many bats at AAA. Indians say it's because they had him developing his slider and not throwing his split as much...you buy that?

Kevin Goldstein: Whether I buy it or not, it certainly is true. He was forced to work on his slider much of the year, and the good news is he made nice progress with it, and it could become an average offering. As a fastball/split guy, he's very unique, and adding some horizontal aspect to his game will help him in the end.

Hendry (front office): Should I put Cashner in the rotation or leave him in the pen?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it would be a damn shame to leave him in the pen. Cubs put tons of work into making him a starter and really good, commendable work that I'd hate to see go to waste.

Cold (Outside): Is Daniel Hudson nearly as good as he looked during the second half of the season?

Kevin Goldstein: No. But it's not like he stinks, either. I think he'll be a good No. 3 starter for a long time.

strupp (Madison): Happy New Year KG. I know there's no love for Tyler Colvin as a future star, but 2nd division starter seems a bit low too. Is there any wiggle room there?

Kevin Goldstein: Not for me. No clue how he's a first-division starter at 1B or a corner OF.

Mike (Denver): Seems like the Rockies might lock up Carlos Gonzalez long term. What do you think of him after his massive 2010?

Kevin Goldstein: Tools and ability were always there, and now we've seen what he can do when he actually dedicates himself to the game and lays off the cruise control button. No reason he can't be this good for a long time.

Chad (Wheaton): Because he was promoted so quickly to the bigs, it is hard for me to figure Chris Sale. Can he become a #2 caliber starter? A nice lefty setup guy? What is your take on him?

Kevin Goldstein: He's going back to a starters development path, and that's the best thing for him. I thought he was the best college pitcher in the draft, and a total gift to the White Sox. No. 2 ceiling for sure.

Chad (Tombstone): Is Sam Demel the cure to the Snakes bullpen woes?

Kevin Goldstein: Cure is strong, but he's a solid ointment or temporary pain reliever.

Swarley (McLaren's): Happy New Year, KG! If Gerrit Cole was eligible, how many stars would you likely give him right now? Do you think he's polished enough to debut in 2012? Are there any real knocks on him except for the inherent risks of pitching? Also, how would you rate Matt Purke at this point? Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: Five stars. The are certainly knocks against him. It's not the cleanest delivery in the world and there are related command issues, but the stuff is pretty special.

Socialist Joe (Somewhere in NY): Speaking only in terms of offensive production, better career Danny Espinosa or Jason Kipnis?

Kevin Goldstein: Kipnis.

Bronson (Austin): Drew Stubbs put up a .189 ISO last year. Is that his peak? Can he survive while striking out 30% of the time?

Kevin Goldstein: He's always going to strike out, and will never hit for a high average, but I don't think he can make some small strides there. Even still you are talking about 20+ home runs, 30 stolen bases and in my opinion he's the best defensive center fielder in the game. That's one helluva player.

jwschaefer (NJ): How ugly is Dillon Gee as the 5th (or worse 4th) starter going to be for the Mets?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think it'll last.

Madtown Mike (Madison): Miguel Sano... I know he's far far away but this guy's upside is pretty attractive right?

Kevin Goldstein: Calling Sano's ceiling 'pretty attractive' is akin to calling Christina Hendricks 'somewhat curvy'

DanChaparian (NY): Does Rangers' prospect Matt Thompson have a future?

Kevin Goldstein: Actually, he's a nice sleeper who is better than his numbers.

Tom (OH): Do you get the feeling that Jay Bruce could be on the verge of a monster season?

Kevin Goldstein: I do.

EricJ (SF): Is Belt good enough to outhit Huff this year? Can he be acceptable in a corner outfield spot?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes; Yes, or Huff could be.

Tony (Albuquerque): Suppose you had both Wil Myers and Jesus Montero in your system. You have to keep on at catcher, who do leave behind the plate?

Kevin Goldstein: Myers has the better chance of getting better, his is more of a case of the bat being so far ahead of the glove.

Frank Vincent (Milwaukee): Obviously, the Brewers have really improved their rotation this off-season. Am I wrong to think that Gallardo may be the one to see the greatest impovement in his numbers with the additions?

Kevin Goldstein: I have a wager with someone that Gallardo is the best pitcher on the Brewers this year.

dianagramr (NYC): So, I've joined a brand spanking new Scoresheet-type league, and we are having our initial player free agent bidding process starting next week. Everyone from Bryce Harper to Albert Pujols is available. So, put on your GM hat for a moment . . . give me some guiding principles for roster construction of an "expansion" team.

Kevin Goldstein: Upside, upside, upside.

Gotribe31 (DC): Any idea where Bryce Harper will start in 2011? No higher than Potomac, right?

Kevin Goldstein: Right, and more likely Low A. He's incredibly talented, but there is no need to rush an 18-year-old.

Robert (New York): Do either Brett Marshall or Jose Ramirez have a #2 starter ceiling?

Kevin Goldstein: No, but that doesn't mean I don't like them.

Chuck (Philly): Jon Singleton--does he have a chance to be a decent OF? Seems like if his bat turns out as projected it'll play anywhere, but is he athletic enough to play a passable LF? Seems like if Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez could man LF in CBP, so could this guy, right?

Kevin Goldstein: Right. Left field really isn't that hard. I mean you wouldn't want Prince Fielder out there, but there are plenty of guys who can be 40 outfielders in left.

Shane (Miami): KG - Loving the Top 11's and thanks for the Chat! Derek Norris' write-up really intrigued me, especially with the improvements defensively. Is he on your '11 breakout list and would .280+ avg. with 25+hr's be his ceiling in the majors?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes on the breakout list, but I don't think he's a .280 hitter. More of a .250 type with big power and tons of walks.

Sacha (San Antonio): Looking forward to the Rangers list, but you aggressively ranked Profar last year. Are the reports about his bat better or worse than you expected?

Kevin Goldstein: As expected.

Warner Madrigal (Nameville): Who is you favorite prospect, strictly from a "GREAT name" aspect?

Kevin Goldstein: New Rangers shortstop Rougned Odor has certainly entered the team photo.

Bob (PA): Listening to your wonderful podcast, there was a bit on there lately about being too stat-centric with evaluating prospects. Some have knocked Singleton for a bad statistical second half. What's the scouting take behind his lesser 2H?

Kevin Goldstein: He fell in love with his power and he also got shifted on quite often, a tactic nearly unheard of in the minors. He needs to make adjustment, but the talent is certainly there. Lightening round time!

Kevin (San Bernadino): Is Rubby De La Rosa a future starter or reliever?

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Greg27 (Toronto): Buying or selling on Travis Snider?

Kevin Goldstein: Still believe.

Vargas (Chicago): Next three years: Hellickson or Matusz?

Kevin Goldstein: So close. Slight edge to Jeremy.

Matt (Chicago): Is the other Chris Carpenter a future closer?

Kevin Goldstein: More 8th innings than ninth.

Tony (Albuquerque): teheran or Lamb?

Kevin Goldstein: A.

cjbuet (madison, wi): Could you see Mcgee closing in Tampa Bay?

Kevin Goldstein: I could.

Mark (Belleville): John Lamb or Martin Perez?

Kevin Goldstein: A.

Rob (L.A.): Who do you like better, Rubby de la Rosa or Stetson Alie?

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Clint Robinson (NWA): Will I be a big league hitter?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe in a bench role.

Tony (Albuquerque): for 2011: billy butler or Logan Morrison?

Kevin Goldstein: A.

DanChaparian (NYC): (A) Todd Frazier (B) Brandon Allen (C) Kila Kaiuaahuehuahuehuhauheuhauheuhe

Kevin Goldstein: B.

BrowningNagle (Louisville, KY): Kevin, love the chats. Now that my Fiesta Bowl passing record is safe, who do you think is the top breakout candidate for 2011 from this list: Aaron Hicks, Wilmer Flores, Jonathan Singleton.

Kevin Goldstein: A.

DanChaparian (NYC): (a) Alex Torres (B) Wilking Rodriguez

Kevin Goldstein: A.

fantasy (USA): Billy Butler - is what he is or the potential for more?

Kevin Goldstein: Still power growth.

Matt (Philadelphia): Chris Carter: more than 400 PA in Oakland in 2011?

Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere around there -- I hope.

MJ (Toronto): Could you see both Stewart and Drabek crack the Jay's rotation this season, and what kind of seasons do you see them having in the majors?

Kevin Goldstein: Not a big Stewart fan, but Drabek will be there, and be good.

Mike (WI): Best bet to make big 2011 rankings jump... A - Keyvius Sampson, B - Luke Jackson, C - Taijuan Walker D - Madison Younginer

Kevin Goldstein: C.

bugthecat (Bella Vista): Who would you rather have in your organization over the next 2-3 years, (A) Michael Pineda or (B) Wil Myers?

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Glenn (Baltimore): Over/Under 50% that Manny Machado becomes Hanley or Tulo-lite?

Kevin Goldstein: Under.

modofacid (philly): brandon wood, a good buy low in a cheap dynasty league?

Kevin Goldstein: He's burned me for years, but I still want to say yes!

myshkin (Santa Clara, CA): I see the multiple choice questions are popular. Nick Franklin or Jason Kipnis?

Kevin Goldstein: Kipnis.

Will (CA): Any chance you ever become some team's farm director? Probably a better guy for that job than many who have em now.

Kevin Goldstein: Zero chance; and you are wrong.

biteme (Lake Forest, CA): I can't tell you what my question is, but it will be released after you answer it.

Kevin Goldstein: D.

Evan (Fort Worth, TX): Brett Jackson future 20/20 .280 guy, yay or nay?

Kevin Goldstein: 20/20 yes; not sold on ability to hit for AVG.

kcroyalsguy (KC): Odorizzi or Crow?

Kevin Goldstein: A.

Randy K (Kansas): on MJ - not impressed. I have a bet with an uncollectable bet with a friend that I could hit .100 in the majors for a 500 AB season. I figure 50% K rate and .200 babip.

Kevin Goldstein: You would hit nowhere close to that.

raygu1 (burlington, nj): Jerry Sands will be an all-star, a solid everyday hitter, or a bench guy? thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Brent Morel (South Side): If given the 3rd base job, chances that I beat .260/.330/.420?

Kevin Goldstein: 68.32%

Robert (New York): Who's better in 5 years: Casey Kelley or Manny Banuelos?

Kevin Goldstein: ManBan.

vlad (la): True/False: Mike Trout will be in the majors by the end of the season?

Kevin Goldstein: PROBABLY false.

baseball (usa): Can Lorenzo Cain hit .280 / .360 / .400 this year?

Kevin Goldstein: He can at least come close to that.

Cris E (St Paul, MN): four years: Joe Benson or Aaron Hicks

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Gotribe31 (DC): Jason Kipnis or Mystery Player from Mystery Team?

Kevin Goldstein: Mystery Team Top 11 comes out in February.

TomBruno23 (St. Louis): Is Rougned Odor related to Rouglas?

Kevin Goldstein: Nephew. Do you really think it would be possible for there to be no relation?

Pete (Seattle): ONE word answer - Taijaun Walker a potential front of the rotation type? You know, in like 5+ years.

Kevin Goldstein: Potentially, yes, but highly unlikely.

Adam (OH): Someone threw a Wandy Rodriguez comp on Gio Soto - you buy it?

Kevin Goldstein: No.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, I went ten minutes over my allotted time, but I'll be sure to do a very long one at some point before the season starts. So you around or on the Twitter (@kevin_goldstein)!