Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Dayn Perry

Chat: Dayn Perry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday June 26, 2008 1:00 PM ET chat session with Dayn Perry.

Dayn Perry writes "Can O'Corn" for Baseball Prospectus, and can also be found at FoxSports.com.

Dayn Perry: Howdy from Chicago. Good to be chatting with everyone. First, let me selfishly plug my new blog: http://spolitical.wordpress.com/. Spolitical explores the union of sports and politics in what I hope is an impartial fashion. Anyway, let's get started. And here's hoping my six-month-old cooperates ...

greg (toronto): Dayn, how does Ricciardi still keep his job? He's kind of like the GM's version of a mediocre player with alot of baggage. A typical team might be willing to put up with the bad if he was great on the field, but he isn't.

Dayn Perry: For a a handful of years there, Ricciardi did a good job of getting typical Blue Jay results at a lower cost. That's not so much the case anymore, and he's an absolute disaster insofar as public-relations is concerned. He's too thin-skinned to be a major-league GM. I wouldn't be surprised if, barring a Jays playoff run, he's let go early this winter.

BL (Bozeman, MT): How do you see teams in the AL Central viewing themselves (buyers, sellers, or Bill Stoneman) moving toward the two trade deadlines? What do you see happening in that division? I'm especially interested in the Royals?

Dayn Perry: The Tigers are, shall we say, pot committed, so I don't envision their selling anyone off. That's not to say they'll be buyers. After all, they don't have much to dangle (Porcello certainly isn't going anywhere.) I think the Indians will trade Sabathia for a healthy return package. As for KC, they should do whatever they can to move guys like Guillen and Grudzielanek (spelled it without looking!). However, given Meche's struggles, they probably shouldn't shop him when his value is at a low point.

Mike (Chicago): How about the NL Central? The last two years, 83 and 85 wins were enough. This year, there may be 3 90+ win teams with one sitting home?

Dayn Perry: I'd call the AL East the toughest, but the NL Central has indeed been impressive this season. The Cubs, I think, are pretty clearly the best team in the division, but I've come to believe that the Wild Card entrant is going to be St. Louis or Milwaukee.

The King (Grinnell, IA): Any chance the Cards could get Sabathia without giving up Ramsus, Anderson, Garcia or Todd?

Dayn Perry: No.

Dan (Newark): After Joba's past two performances, is it safe to say that moving him to the rotation was the right move (without taking into account wang's injury)?

Dayn Perry: Yes. He's got the stuff to be a starter, and he's obviously taken to the role. It maximized his value, and it made the Yankees a better team. Wise call.

jlarsen (DRays Bay): Tampa Bay Rays- 46-31, Can you believe it???

Dayn Perry: I'm not shocked that they're a good team, but I am surprised somewhat by the extent of their success. They're a thoroughly enjoyable team to watch, and I'm pulling for them in the AL. The AL East badly needed an interloper, and now they have it. Tampa's turned into a first-rate organization.

Nick (Austin): Is it too early to be calling for Wade's head on a platter? Or do we have to wait the obligatory couple of years?

Dayn Perry: Wade is not optimal, but I think Drayton McLane's the problem. If you have a hands-on, meddlesome owner, then you at least need one who has some clue as to what he's doing. McLane is not that guy. He needs to stick to peddling groceries and let his baseball-ops people run the show.

joe lefko (nj): Any chance the Yanks could get Sabathia without giving up Hughes or Ajax

Dayn Perry: No.

DokLivy (Houston): Through 78 games, the Cardinals are playing .577 baseball. That's a pace to win 93 games. If this Cardinal team goes 90-72, will baseballprospectus.com disappear in an Arthur Dent- Babel Fish puff of logic? Reading BP sometimes is like reading Hunter S. Thompson. Fear and Loathing in St. Louis. It's hard for me to understand the loating of a team that has posted win totals since 2000 that include seasons of: 95, 93, 97, 85, 105, 100, 83, 78. That's an average of 92 wins a year over eight years, and includes two world series appearances, one world series victory. Six division series out of eight years (with a NLDS record of 5-1). And five NLCS appearances in eight years (with a record of 2-3). This is the NL's dominant team of the last decade. No doubt.

Dayn Perry: Since you're talking to the resident Cardinals fan, your cries of bias aren't flying. Seriously, unless someone here is harboring a secret blood oath against some team, our personal feelings don't come into it. I've been a Cards fan since my Dad taught me to be one at age six, and my wife can testify to the fact that their success or failure has great bearing upon my mood. Yet even I'm surprised by this team's success. I didn't peg them for last place, but I thought coming into the 2008 season that they were less poised for success than the Cubs, Brewers and Reds. That I was wrong about that delights me to no end. For me, this is the most enjoyable Cards team since '87 when were dashing the dreams of the "pond scum." But can any sentient, non-homer Cards fan say they expected this from this team?

Jessica (NYC): What should the Mets do to improve their playoff chances without mortgaging the future more than they already have?

Dayn Perry: I don't think there's much they can do. Maybe improve at the margins at the deadline, but you're not going to see, say, Sabathia or Teixeira (spelled it without looking it up!) added. What are they going to trade? Fernando Martinez's stock isn't exactly rising.

DokLivy (Houston): In the NYTimes today there was a story on the breaking of bats. While I expected, I guess stupidly, that MLB would bend over backward to ensure that only the highest quality bats are used in games, I'm somewhat surprised that none one seems to have given much thought to issues of competitive advantage, given the lax rules. What if the bats are juiced? Perhaps the wood has been soaked in concentrated HGH? Has anyone been checking these bats to make sure they don't have an abscess on the nub?

Dayn Perry: MLB needs to change things on this front. I'm tired of the games being delayed every other plate appearance because someone shatters his bat. And, as we saw earlier this week, there's also some danger involved. Mandate thicker handles or something.

Goose (Chicago): As a Chicago Cubs fan, Dayn pease leave our city immediately after declaring your love for the Cardinals...it is a long drive down 55 to tht sweatshop known as St Louis.

Dayn Perry: No points for loving the city itself and calling Wrigley Field my favorite sporting venue (minus the ubiquitous frat-boy contingent, of course)?

Mike (Utica,NY): Since your a cardinals fan, would you trade Rasmus for Sabathia or Bedard?

Dayn Perry: Sabathia, yes, Bedard, no.

jschmeagol (weifang, china): Hey Dayn, enjoy the Mockbuster series. Are there any that would make sense for the Yankees (going either way of course)?

Dayn Perry: I think the problem for the Yankees is that their main bargaining chips (Hughes, Tabata, Kennedy) are on the low end of their value at the moment. That makes it difficult to, a, deal for a big-name guy and, b, get a fair deal. I think Teixeira would be a great fit for the Yankees (seriously, Giambi needs to DH in the worst way), but they don't have enough upward-trending (or at least stabilized) young talent to get it done.

El Guapo (NYC): Beltran and Heilman for Rasmus, Anderson and Perez?

Dayn Perry: Pass.

rawagman (TO): I like the potential trade series. How realistic do you think the following scenario could be: Jays send AJ Burnett and one of Shannon Stewart / Brad Wilkerson to the Cubs for Rich Hill and Matt Murton? Can that be a great way to kill 4 birds with one stone, or what?

Dayn Perry: In making such a deal, the Cubs would make themselves measurably worse. I say go for it!

Pat (Tufts): Shouldn't the Mets just fight with what they have, but also look to ships some players(i.e. Schoeneweiss, Pedro, Schneider, Chavez) to regain something for their pretty barren minor league system?

Dayn Perry: Mostly, yes. However, I wouldn't trade away the vets you mentioned. You're not going to get much in return, and this team still has enough talent to make a run. Keep in mind that it's still June, and the Mets are just four games off the division lead, and we're still giving them better than a 25% chance of making the playoffs. So hold steady.

Dusty (Not Chicago): So when the Cubs win the World Series this fall and the trixies and fratboys are jumping around the city as obnoxious as ever, will you stay and enjoy it, or get out of town for a few days?

Dayn Perry: I'd stick around just to see the show, but I'd try to finagle some off-street parking.

ehahmann (OutsPerSwing): What package of prospects would it take the Rays to land Sabathia? Would the Indians be asking for a McGee, Hellickson, Jennings type deal or would they settle for less? And would the Rays be crazy to even go after Sabathia?

Dayn Perry: Mark Shapiro's good at making these kinds of deals, and the fact that we're talking about a reigning Cy Young winner whose numbers have been lights out since April means he's going to be in demand. It's going to take a lot to get him.

Adam (NY): Is the Oswalt speculation premature or are the Astros really looking to deal him?

Dayn Perry: It certainly might be true, but it would be stupid in the extreme. Why would you trade Oswalt in the midst of what's easily the worst season of his career? Selling low on your ace isn't the way to go for Houston.

WhatDude77 (Roslyn, NY): Oliver Perez for Anthony Reyes?

Dayn Perry: Done.

BigOwe (SF): I too really enjoy the mockbuster series, since it's what I try to work out half the time myself. Thanks for indulging all the mock-GMs out here who aren't necessarily interested in running a "fantasy" team. Here's one of my latest: Giants get: Prince Fielder Brewers get: Matt Cain Cain would give the Brewers one extra year (he�s an FA in 2102, Fielder in 2011), and they get to bring up LaPorta now. They need SP as much as anyone, and Fielder hasn�t been able to make up the difference this year producing runs. And for us, we have a slugger to play 1b until AnVil comes up.

Dayn Perry: I like Cain long-term, but the results this season aren't there, not enough to justify parting with Fielder to get him.

Mike (Minnesota): Who will be the best out of these three: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones?

Dayn Perry: Jones. More power.

dcoonce (bloomington, Indiana): Here's your crazy blockbuster - What about Adrian Gonzalez to the yanks for Kennedy, Melky, Igawa and either Jackson or Hughes? Solves problems for both teams, and Kennedy could be a good pitcher in that park and league.

Dayn Perry: Not happening. Igawa has no value, Kennedy and Hughes are hurt, and Melky isn't hitting. You're talking about a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman who's 26 and on pace for 40 spanks while playing half his games in Petco.

Ruben Gillbuckle (Philadelphia): Please tell me the Phillies will be agressive and land Sabathia or Bedard and not settle for a mediocre pitcher like Paul Byrd or Randy Wolf this year!

Dayn Perry: The Phillies don't have near enough to offer for a guy like Sabathia. They'll be in the mix for second-tier bait, but that's it.

John (Maryland): What would the Cubs need to give up to land Sabathia? I would they they'd need to include Marmol at least.

Dayn Perry: They don't have enough. Pie's value has cratered, and Josh Vitters hasn't lived up to the hype. Shapiro's too smart to trade Sabathia for a package centered around a reliever.

ROCK (mn): Hold Steady?!? Are you a fan?

Dayn Perry: I am. "Boys and Girls in America" is a truly great album.

Mike (Atlanta): Jason Heyward will be in the majors by? and who does he remind you of?

Dayn Perry: Mid 2009. Bigger, left-handed George Foster? Too much of a stretch?

dcoonce (Bloomington, Indiana): Maddux is very quietly putting together a decent season. Any chance he brings back a B-Level prospect at trading deadline?

Dayn Perry: I'd certainly think so. He's got superficially good numbers, and his reputation certainly makes him appealing. I think he'll be moved.

Ne-Yo (Philly): Carrasco, Cardenas and Victornio for Sabathia?

Dayn Perry: Oh, come on.

Jack (Chicago): Eric Patterson, Donald Veal, and Sean Marshall for AJ Burnett.

Dayn Perry: With the way he's pitching right now, would you really rather have Burnett over just Marshall? Reminds of the days when teams would clamor to get Tim Belcher every July.

Nick (NYC): Hey Dayn, Do you have a favorite canidate for the Mariner's GM job? What are the odds the M's hire that canidate and not Steve Phillips. Please tell me they won't hire Steve Phillips.

Dayn Perry: I'd love to see Chris Antonetti get a shot, and Paul DePodesta certainly merits another crack at it. If Kevin Towers decides to step aside in San Diego, then he'd be a great fit. As I recall, he's an Oregon native, so he's got ties to the region. Others ... Dan Evans, Larry Dierker (pulled that out of my hat, but why not?), Kim Ng .

Stan (Cicero): What team, currently under .500, is most likely to be this year's rockies and make a big run? Or was that such an abberation that we shouldn't look for it again for a decade or two?

Dayn Perry: Good question. Mets or Dodgers.

Will (NYC): When was the last deadline deal for a pending free agent that brought a really big haul? People are overselling sabathia's worth because GMs have figured out that the many years of cheap productive service time they give up is too high a price for 12 good starts. 1 first tier and 1 second tier prospect is all it will take. maybe even scratch the second tier. (assuming no extension is in place prior to the deal)

Dayn Perry: Probably Colon to the Expos, but memory may be failing me. Stars like Sabathia don't often end up being rentals. He's a trade-and-sign guy all the way.

John (DC): Are my Orioles going to pull the trigger on a trade and keep rebuilding or has their .500 play convinced Angelos that a Wieters-for-Griffey swap is all we need to put us over the top?

Dayn Perry: I think they'll wisely keep rebuilding. Not even Angelos is deluded enough to foul this up. Right?

jimbeau (Left Coast): Dayn. So the Cubs & Phillies don't have enough, NYY are likely to hold onto Hughes, ATL will try and solve from within, Texas really shouldn't be trying...so who do you think has the assets - LAD, Rays, StL, Mil? Who do yo think steps up and gets it done.

Dayn Perry: Based on no inside information, I'm going to predict he winds up in Milwaukee.

mattymatty (Philly): Keeping on the Sabathia kick, I keep hearing the Red Sox name thrown into the mix. Why? Even with Schilling down, don't they have enough pitching?

Dayn Perry: I'm with you. They have plenty of rotation depth even without Schilling. They should be worried about fixing the middle-relief corps.

airjakub2 (Brooklyn): Are you taking the Royals at 100-1 to win the Central? They're only seven games out now.

Dayn Perry: I'd need somewhat longer odds.

airjakub2 (Brooklyn): PECOTA disagrees, it says 70:1.

Dayn Perry: That's exactly why I don't patronize the PECOTA Sports Book.

Tommy (OPS, FL): Do you think Xavier Nady is the missing piece to the Rays lineup? What would it take to acquire Nady if the Pirates became sellers? Jeff Niemann +?

Dayn Perry: They could use some help against lefties, and Nady would likely come at a nominal cost.

Not Steve Goldman (parts unknown): Do you have a nickname? Would you rather be Dayn "Day Out" Perry or "Great" Dayn Perry?

Dayn Perry: I'm fond of "Maximus Alvardo," but it doesn't seem to take.

RahulN (GA): If the Braves aren't close at the deadline, what about Teixeira for Kemp/Loney and someone like Elbert? I know Tex is only controlled for the rest of this year but if Coletti is really desperate for offense you never know what he might do..

Dayn Perry: I can't imagine that the Dodgers would do that, but that assumes Colletti is aware that Loney and Kemp aren't the problem.

Adam (NY): The new album is a bit different, a little slower and more reflective.

Dayn Perry: I need my slow stuff in doses. Blame it on too much Black Flag in high school. Right now, I'm enjoying "Nouns" by No Age.

Steve (Milwaukee): I love your guess that CC is a Brewer...what would it cost? Jefress, LaPorta, Gamel, some combo?

Dayn Perry: Some combo, but I'm pretty sure LaPorta would need to be a part of it.

Dayn Perry:

Okay, folks, that'll it for me. Thanks for all the great questions, and I'm sorry I wasn't able to get to all of them. I'd love to stick around longer, but parental obligations beckon. Take care, all.

Oh, and have you seen this cool new blog?