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Chat: Bill Barnwell (Football)

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday April 24, 2008 11:30 AM ET chat session with Bill Barnwell (Football).


Bill Barnwell writes "Scramble for the Ball" weekly during the NFL season for Football Outsiders. He drops by to talk about the weekend's NFL draft.

Bill Barnwell (Football): And after some technical difficulties, we are live from the opulent Hotel Mela in midtown Manhattan! BP does its chat hosts right -- you should see the cheese platter. I'm Bill Barnwell from Football Outsiders, and for a little while here, I'll be taking your questions on the football offseason and the NFL Draft. I've got Sebadoh's "III" and a bucket of ice filled to the point where I can't actually put anything in the bucket, so let's get started.

ericturner29 (Chicago): How big of a loss is Bodden for the Browns? Did they rob Peter to pay Paul?

Bill Barnwell (Football): One of the difficult things that we have to deal with as informed fans is adapting to how fluid player value is. It's a little bit easier in baseball than in football, but Bodden's a good example. He's a player who had a superb 2005 according to our metrics, was injured and mediocre in 2006, and didn't play well at all in 2007. I still think he's a useful corner, but his ceiling now is likely good #2 cornerback, not shutdown corner. His career path reminds me a lot of Charles Tillman's.

BL (Bozeman): If the Chiefs are in total rebuilding mode, shouldn't they just trade Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson and start over?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I can't imagine anyone taking that Larry Johnson contract off their hands at this point. Gonzalez might have some value, but he's also a 32-year-old tight end. His market's likely a Day Two pick. Is that really worth it?

AnandaG (Baltimore, MD): Which NFL team do you think provides the best opportunity for a newly drafted first round running back to succeed (even if it doesn't necessarily have the greatest need)?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Minnesota? Is that cheating?

I'd have to go with New England.

Jim (Philadelphia): With all the talk of the Eagles trading Lito Sheppard they do not seem to be very interested in moving him. What do you think they should do?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I wouldn't be either. I still haven't seen an actual quote from Sheppard that says "I'd like to be traded", just lots of speculation. I think he stays, and I think he should stay. Why move him? Because he's not the #1 corner on the team? That seems like an excessively silly reason to me.

Andy (Richmond, VA): Given his relative lack of experience, are people really scared off by Jeff Otah? People say he has a "high ceiling" and will "eventually be good," but usually on the NFL level those flags translate to "another Mike Williams."

Bill Barnwell (Football): Well, "usually" is a little much. I'd be afraid of Otah because people project him as a right tackle, not a left tackle, and the offensive line should be thought of a lot like the defensive spectrum in baseball; if you come up into the league as a left tackle, you can always become a mediocre left guard (like Robert Gallery) or a very good right guard (like Leonard Davis). If you're starting off at right tackle and can't cut it there, well, you're Mike Williams.

Andy (Richmond, VA): With all the emphasis placed on absurd metrics at the NFL Combine (e.g. 40-yard dashes for O-linemen, completely worthless "speed catch" drills, etc.), why hasn't anybody proposed a better system of physical metrics to evaluate players?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Hey! I did! http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3337822 is my attempt to take the data already used at the Combine and get more out of it.

1 sec, everyone.

Taylor (Toronto): With the 11th overall pick the Buffalo Bills select _______. With the 11th overall pick the Buffalo Bills should select ________.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Devin Thomas. Brian Brohm.

wilk75 (Houston): I'm hoping the Texans can get a true left tackle with the 18th pick. With the new blocking schemes, I assume they need somebody who's quick...Who should I be hoping will slide to them?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I really like Gosder Cherilus. He's got the BC pedigree, which is usually a pretty reliable indicator that an offensive lineman is going to be good, although recent ACC offensive first-round tackles (Barron -- Peter King's shot at him in this week's MMQB was pretty fantastic, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Colombo, Carey) have been pretty hit-or-miss.

James, London (UK): Hi Bill, As a Brit I see no college football, but I do know Miami have drafted Jake Long. What can long-suffering Miami fans reasonably expect from him based on his college career, and are the Dolphins likely to draft a QB in Round 2?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I'll say the same thing I said about him in the Mock Draft we did -- Of the people who were pegged in the Top 5 following the 2006 season, Long was the one whose stock stayed the same heading in 2007. That impresses me more than anything else. You're guaranteed about five years of an upper-echelon right tackle or, in all likelihood, a very good left tackle. If I had to peg someone's career path as his, it might be Jordan Gross.

Shaun Alexander (Seattle): Where am I going to play in the future?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Denver, where you will be taught to never, ever cut back and pick up another 1000-yard season before suffering a knee injury and retiring.

Chris (Chicago): Is Matt Ryan the franchise QB every keeps saying he is? I have a hard time thinking he is head and shoulders above Brohm.

Bill Barnwell (Football): http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135 -- our David Lewin doesn't think so, and has some strong logic to back it up. I'm inclined to believe that and ignore his winningness.

Jon (NJ): Thinking back to FO's regression analysis on Combine results - If you look at Jerry Reese's 2007 draft class, most of the picks did very well in the 3-cone drill at the Combine. As per http://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=283246 , every pick except Alford and Michael Johnson was in the top 4 at his position. Keep this in mind when Harry Douglas, Stanford Keglar, and Terrence Wheatley are wearing Blue in a few days.

Bill Barnwell (Football): That's true, but Reese has been handling the Giants drafts for a few years now, and it hasn't been consistent over that time period. Gerris Wilkinson's three-cone drill was average. Guy Whimper's was above-average, but Chris Snee's was right around average. I'd put this in the "Something interesting to note for the future" category instead of the "This is happening" category.

Tony (Brooklyn, NY): Bill James said that there is alot of great work being done on football analysis, but that it's silo'd within front offices. Agree? When will the NFL release film?

Bill Barnwell (Football): To an extent, although I think there are front offices that also have their heads in the sand. No idea when the NFL will release film, although you'd think they'd have hired someone from MLB Advanced Media by now.

JasonK (Washington, DC): Any input on the Jeremy Shockey trade rumors? What do you think would be a fair value for him at this point in his career?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Man, I wish he was a defensive tackle. This question would be easy.

Shockey drops more passes than he should, but he also bails Eli out on a wild pass often enough to make up for it. He's also an elite blocker, something that people forget about when evaluating him. I wouldn't want to trade him, but if I was going to, I'd do it for a #2 and a conditional pick in 2009.

pieman1121 (China, Maine): Billy! How about those Giants!?! I am still taking grief (and loving it) from the Patriots Nation up here in New England, but what do the Giants do for an encore? Who do they target at the end of the 1st round this year? Do they need to do something at RB or are they set with Jacobs and Bradshaw?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Pie man! I wouldn't take a running back in the first round unless it was Darren McFadden or Jonathan Stewart (I'll explain him later). I think in the ideal scenario, Kenny Phillips falls and the Giants snatch him up, and if that doesn't happen, Dan Connor would be an excellent fallback plan. Taking an offensive player outside of a left tackle would be a bad idea.

tommy two toes (Vegas): Who do you see being the draft bust this season?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Ryan. Not bust, necessarily, but not what people are wishcasting him to be, which is Tom Brady.

Adam T. (San Diego): Of the 7 or so elite prospects that seem to be at the top of all the mock drafts, who is the most likely to fall out of the top 10 a la Brady Quinn?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Ooh. This is a fun one. I can't see Chris Long falling. Someone will take McFadden under BPA. Matt Ryan isn't getting past the Ravens. Jake Long's gone. Glenn Dorsey's too good to fall. That leaves Gholston and Sedrick Ellis....I'll say Ellis.

The Jets (New York): What do we do? What do we do?! Help!

Bill Barnwell (Football): Throw money at it! Throw heaping wads of money at it till it shuts up!

mattymatty2000 (Philly, PA): Will putting Jason Campbell into the west coast offense help him or hurt him? If you had to guess, do you think Campbell will still be the Skins QB in three years?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Help. He's got great mechanics and he's very consistent about getting the ball out when he's supposed to. That's perfect for the West Coast offense. I think Campbell's the Skins QB in three years and he's a MVP candidate.

ericturner29 (Chicago): Where does Joe Thomas rank among NFL tackles?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Based upon last year? Top three. Right there with Jason Peters and Gross (albeit Gross on the right side). Of course, I would've said the same thing about Marcus McNeill last year, and he didn't have a great year.

Mr Shush (Oxford, England): Signs out of Houston, insofar as they can be believed, are that the Texans hope to draft Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams at #18. Obviously this makes sense from a need standpoint (it seems foolhardy to assume that Charles Spencer will ever make a full recovery) and Williams appears to be the sort of mobile player who's a good fit in the Shanahan-Gibbs-Kubiak offense. What do you think of Williams as a prospect overall? I'm inclined to think that he's nothing terribly special, and that the Texans should be looking to trade down and address their plethora of defensive needs.

Bill Barnwell (Football): The complaint about Williams is that he's big, but not strong. The reality is that most right ends are speed merchants, not bull rushers. I actually would be pretty content if I was a Texans fan and they nabbed him.

A Texans fan in Oxford? You are a dedicated man.

Steve (Bismarck, ND): Even though this draft will most certainly be more boring for Vikings fans, how will this affect their chances this season?

Bill Barnwell (Football): It means Tarvaris Jackson is still going to be their quarterback. That affects their chances more than acquiring Jared Allen.

Steve (Bismarck, ND): Is it just me, or is Joe Flacco going to be the best QB in the draft? He has an absolute cannon.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Drafting guys because they have a cannon arm is, honestly, a bad idea. Having a very good arm helps some, but there are myriad issues that come up (forcing throws against inferior competition and relying on it to get by) when you're dealing with guys like this. Give me the accurate guy any day. Speaking of...

Steve (Bismarck, ND): Should the Vikings: A. Start Tavaris Jackson this year B. Start Gus Frerrote or C. Draft a QB with their first pick.

Bill Barnwell (Football): How about D. Trade for Chad Pennington? There's no better fit on the planet than Pennington in Minnesota. A great offensive line, a West Coast offense, a contending team. Someone really needs to make this happen.

Rashad M. (Champaign, Il): "I wouldn't take a running back in the first round unless it was Darren McFadden or Jonathan Stewart." Why do you hate me?

Bill Barnwell (Football): http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/09/outside-foxborough-pac-10-vs-big-10-and-marshawn-lynch/ -- Because of the run/pass ratio inherent to their conferences, Big Ten backs tend to be overvalued and Pac-10 backs tend to be undervalued. That's enough to push Stewart into the middle of the first round and Mendenhall to the end of it for me, and unless you have a chance to pick a very good (e.g. McFadden-caliber) running back at the end of the first round, I wouldn't take them. They're too easily replaceable.

ericturner29 (Chicago): _____________ is the most important stat when evaluating a QB if you can only have one. (Is the answer completion percentage?)

Bill Barnwell (Football): Yes. But why can you only have one? What totalitarian regime are you under, ericturner29, where you can only evaluate guys with one metric? That seems cruel.

Tomm Bahama (Bahamas): Do you think there is some reason why the Jags would give up their pastdraft pick Stroud who they build some of their defense around and allowed to get great and anchor their team? Does he have some "cancer qualities" that might have been over looked or a bad locker room mentatlity people missed?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I think the Jaguars traded Stroud at the absolute nadir of his value. Has no one in Jacksonville ever played in a fantasy league before? You don't trade guys when their value's bottomed out, you trade it at their peak.

Doug (York, PA): Okay, this question is more about last year's draft, but I do want to know: Miami's QB pick from 2007 (John Beck) was touted pretty highly by the Lewin forecast, correct? Now that we're a year removed, do the 'Fins have any hope of improving their quarterback play through their signing of Jake Long? Will that help Beck produce the way he should be?

Bill Barnwell (Football): It was touted highly, but Dave noted that Beck was unlikely to reach the heights predicted by his college stats because of his age. I don't think Beck will end up being worth much, but having Long there will sure help.

Mario Williams (Houston): Reggie who?

Bill Barnwell (Football): This is why you don't judge drafts after one year.

Tony (Brooklyn, NY): Do you think that basketball would lend itself to a game charting program? The paucity of defensive metrics is really eye popping, I think.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Well, I mean, there are plenty of defensive metrics if you look around enough (82games comes to mind). also know that a goodly number of teams have their own defensive metrics in use in-house.

BL (Bozeman): It's a good day if the Chiefs get ________ at five and ___________ with their second first-rounder.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Chris Long. Ryan Clady. A very good day.

Eric J (Norman OK): Analysis of the Jared Allen deal?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Lot to pay, but he's quite the defender. Napoleon Harris was insistent that the Chiefs give Allen huge money when I interviewed him -- he said Allen was the best defensive player in the league and it wasn't close.

ericturner29 (Chicago): Joe Thomas is better than Long, right?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Don't know yet. Again, Long impresses me because he made it through the scoutthink portion of his college career/Combine flawlessly. Their pre-draft measurables are pretty similar. It's not unreasonable to think Long could be better, but Thomas has already done it for a year, so he's ahead for now.

Chris (Miami): So wait.. Is Chris Chambers good or bad?!

Bill Barnwell (Football): Chris Chambers as the #1 receiver getting thrown 160 passes a year in Miami is bad. Chris Chambers as the #3-#4 receiver in San Diego getting thrown 90 passes a year and working downfield in single coverage is good.

Player value is much more fluid in football than it is in baseball. It's such an important thing to understand. Take JJ Arrington and Marshawn Lynch. Their college numbers and Combine data are remarkably similar. One was drafted in the second round by Arizona, played one year behind an awful line, and is buried behind Edgerrin James. One was drafted in the first round by Buffalo, played one year behind a very good line, and is considered a great pick. The difference between them? Likely very little.

Pac Man Jones (Dallas, TX): I'll see you in the Super Bowl.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Is that a strip club?

Actually, why hasn't Pac-Man opened up a strip club in Vegas yet? You're telling me you wouldn't go?

ericturner29 (Chicago): I'm under the regime where Derek Anderson's completion percentage sucks. People get blinded by the TDs, but he's not a very good QB, right?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I think he's overrated at the moment, but pegging him as not very good because of his completion percentage is a little disingenuous. He throws more downfield passes than most, so his completion percentage is likely to be below-average. I think his performance from last year would be fine value for his deal, but this just isn't going to end well. What do you do the first time he slips? Give Quinn the job? And then?

Frank Gore 2007 Fantasy Owner (Everywhere): :(

Bill Barnwell (Football): That's what happens when your quarterback gets hurt, his top target blows, and three-fifths of your offensive line gets hurt or goes old or crazy. The talent's still there.

1 sec again, everyone.

ajmorriso (Chicago): Could you please give us an obligatory "what are the Raiders doing?" statement. I can't wait for until Saturday to get one from the mainstream press.

Bill Barnwell (Football): I think the Raiders' pick will end up being eminently reasonable, actually. I don't see any signs that they'll take McFadden. Which would be unreasonable, actually.

Steve (Clearwater FL): Who do you see Tampa Bay taking at 20? Alternatively (unless the answer is the same), who *should* they take, given who's likely to available at that slot?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I see them taking Mendenhall. Not to pick on the guy, but if they do that and don't recognize what Earnest Graham did as essentially freely-available talent last year, they don't deserve to win.

I'd like to see them take a corner with the idea of replacing Ronde Barber eventually. Talib would work there.

ericturner29 (Chicago): If I were king of the world, it wouldn't matter when DA slipped, because I would have traded him to another team and handed the reins to Quinn. As you pointed out, the DA thing will not end well, so trade him while he has value. Quinn may have growing pains, but he'll be fine behind that line. Last Browns question: What will their record be this year if you had to guess?

Bill Barnwell (Football): 7-9. I loved the Browns going into last year (I was the only person I think on Earth who pegged them as a playoff team), but regression is coming. What are the odds that Lewis, Stallworth, Jurevicius, Edwards, and Winslow all stay healthy for another year?

Jon ((NJ)): Thinking back to the flurry of trades in the NFL this offseason - what exactly is the expected value of a draft pick? Hypothetically, based on the current market rate, the Chiefs probably couldn't get more than a 4th for Tony Gonzalez. The value of cheap talent in the NFL can hardly be underrated. However, the odds are overwhelmingly against being able to find someone as good as Randy Moss or Chad Johnson with any picks they'd be worth Does it ever make sense to lose more net talent in any deal, ever?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Well, it's talent in relation to salary. DeWayne Robertson's a talented guy and would be a good starter on a 4-3 line, but no one wants to bite because he's making $10 million this year.

That being said, I sure think veteran players are undervalued at the moment. Marcus Stroud for a #3 and a #5? I'll take two, thanks.

milo (juju): who's the top wide receiver that's going to be overlooked?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Mario Manningham. The inverse of that Big 10/Pac-10 point from earlier is that Big 10 wideouts (sorry, BD) tend to be underrated. He didn't run a great 40, but he's been a playmaker for virtually his entire college career at an elite program. That means something. I don't know if he's going to be a star in the NFL, but I think he can have a Santana Moss-style career. As for his weed usage, if you think Manningham and Aqib Talib are the only guys in this draft who have used marijuana, you need to get your head out of the sand.

Kyle Orton (Chicago): Man if I did this for the rest of my life I would be set right?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Are you doing a kegstand? If so, no.

ericturner29 (Chicago): 7-9? A pox on your house! Cripes man, their defense improved. Is their offense really going to be that much worse?

Bill Barnwell (Football): My crystal ball foresees an offense afflicted by injury and a defense which still can't cover anyone. Of course, DVOA might disagree.

Rich (Columbus, OH): Why is taking McFadden unreasonable for the Raiders? Sure, they were 6th in rushing last year, but I assume they're going to get rid of Jordan, and is Justin Fargas really good enough that you can bypass McFadden? Or is it more that their line on both sides of the ball needs a lot of help?

Bill Barnwell (Football): The Raiders had a pretty good rushing offense last year (21th in the league). They had the worst rushing defense in recent memory. They gave one of the guys who helped contribute to that a huge contract. I'd want to commit resources to that defensive line before I worried about grabbing a new running back.

kingofstyle (NY): I'm sort of confused when it comes to the Tavaris Jackson hate...you say that one shouldn't judge a QB solely by completion %, yet that's pretty much what the Lewin Projection system does (it only takes one team to take a QB in the first or second round)...yet that's really the only strike against Jackson. There are some games when he looks lost and some games he doesn't, which you could say about any young qb, especially with an iffy receiving corps. You go on to say that one year isn't enough to judge a draft...and Jackson has been a starting qb for little over one year. I'm not suggesting he's the next great thing, but I think it's a bit unfair to state with conviction that he will be terrible no matter what. By all accounts, he works hard and is committed to the game. Please explain how Chad Pennington, who is an injury waiting to happen and hasn't been impressive recently, is a better solution than the upside of Jackson.

Bill Barnwell (Football): I don't see any evidence that Jackson's going to be a competent NFL quarterback, no one who I know does, and no one in the league outside of the Vikings does. As for Pennington not being impressive recently, he completed 68% of his passes last year and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. Jackson completed 58% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Jackson had a great offensive line and great running game to play off of; he had mediocre receivers, but Pennington had no line and no running game. I mean, there's just nothing there.

jeff (boston, ma): all things considered, if the bears draft mendenhall thats guaranteeing the guy busts right? Just look at their recent running back history

Bill Barnwell (Football): Do you think Curtis Enis can swing a job for him on the midnight shift?

John (PA): Does McNabb need another receiver to be effective or will the fact that he has had another year to recover from his ACL injury be enough?

Bill Barnwell (Football): He was perfectly fine last year. The Eagles need someone across from Trent Cole to contribute, a middle linebacker, Brian Dawkins to stave off aging, and maybe Winston Justice to step in at guard. I still think they take the East this year.

mattymatty2000 (Philly, PA): What positions do the Skins need to focus on with their 9 picks in this draft?

Bill Barnwell (Football): WR, DL, OL. In that order.

Jim (Brick): 21st rushing offense in the league is pretty good?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Compared to their rushing defense?

norbert (jackson): is there any way the giants could get a decent backup for eli? i know he stepped it up in the playoffs, but he's bound to implode again and they need someone solid to groom for the position

Bill Barnwell (Football): What, you don't believe in David Carr? I don't know about grooming someone, since they're pretty much committed to Eli at this point.


Bill Barnwell (Football): Did Tom Brady impregnate you too?

Pete (Baltimore Fan in Dallas): Who will be the decision maker in Baltimore's draft? Who will they probably pick? ( I sure hope it is not Ryan). Will Cameron or Harbaugh (sp?) pluck their favorites from their former teams in draft day moves? I'd love to see Kolb in Baltimore! But that seems like a long shot. Should Baltimore wait for a better QB year? This does not strike me a great year... I'm still ticked Cleveland swiped Anderson from us.

Bill Barnwell (Football): I wouldn't be too upset. Baltimore's my pick for the best-drafting team in the league. I think they take Ryan. If they offered the #8 for Kolb, I think they'd get him, but I doubt that would happen. If I was in the front office there, I'd shut up and let Ozzie pick whoever he thinks is best. If he asked me, I'd grab the best corner available.

Roel Torres (Somerville, MA): What can we expect from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants next year?

Bill Barnwell (Football): 9-7.

kingofstyle (NY): If I may, Eli Manning has never completed more than 58% of his passes and has exceeded 6.5 per attempt once. I don't see how those stats disqualify Jackson from leading this team into the playoffs, especially when you consider his upside with another year in the league and an improved receiving corps.

Bill Barnwell (Football): That's a reasonable point. On the other hand, though, Eli wasn't running the West Coast offense.

John (Burlington, Ky): If Ellis is gone when the Bengals pick, do they take a RB, OT, or trade down?

Bill Barnwell (Football): I could see them taking Merling there.

Brian (Nashville): Do you forsee any changes to the CBA in the coming years because of the rookie contracts? It doesn't make sense that Jake Long is immediately the highest-paid OL in the league without playing a down. You'd think the active players would push to correct this.

Bill Barnwell (Football): It's not as if the active players aren't awash in money, either. When the cap closes up again and players are operating on the margins, I think you'll see more of a push, but it's going to have to be a real problem for 30 Helens to agree, and I just don't see it being that big of a deal.

mattymatty2000 (Philly, PA): Thanks for taking all my questions. So, if Washington can get Chad Johnson (somehow) this off season, does that address the first concern that you noted, or is it more of a question of depth rather than high end talent?

Bill Barnwell (Football): They need a starter -- if they could get Johnson, they could push Moss (not a good fit for the WCO) into a secondary role and Randle El (also not a good fit for the WCO) into a tertiary role. That would be fine for depth.

RMGreen (PA): If WR _________ was available at 19, the Eagles would draft him.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Jerry Rice?

I think all the wideouts will still be there at 19 and the Eagles won't take any of them.

andre (hoboken): is zach thomas worth keeping around just so he can do the soulja boy dance on the sidelines?

Bill Barnwell (Football): As long as he doesn't get concussed. Poor guy.

OK -- lightning round, everyone. Now's a good time for the "If ____ is available, the YOUR_FAVORITE_TEAM take him, right?" sort of questions.

Brecken (Chicago): I don't see how the Bears don't go OL with at least two picks in the first 3 rounds... So many of their issues are blocking related and they've proven they can survive with a "caretaker" QB. And with that, would you take Otah (Pitt) or Willams (Vandy)?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Well, I think Beekman steps in as a starter this year to begin with, which helps. If I was going to take one, I'd take Williams over Otah for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Tomm Bahama (Bahamas ): Whose the big U of Miami guy in the draft this year?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Kenny Phillips. Late first-round. Not a big year for U prospects, sorry.

John (Burlington, Ky): Is Harvey worth a top 10-15 pick?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Lower range, but yes. A defensive end who doesn't shirk his run responsibilities to get to the passer? I'll take two, thanks.

Jim (Brick): In response to the Eagles WR question, is that because of a lack of WR talent with this class, surplus of WR talent in Philadelphia, a belief in the Eagles front office that there is a surplus of WR talent in Philadelphia, or simply bigger needs elsewhere?

Bill Barnwell (Football): A lack of talent in the draft and the feeling that the Eagles can plug in most anyone and have them succeed, along with the fact that they're invested financially (Curtis) and emotionally (Brown) in their two starters at the moment.



Jim (Philadelphia): If Kenny Phillips is available, do the Eagles take him?

Bill Barnwell (Football): If he's the best player on their board, sure. I don't think he will be, so they probably won't.

DaveKavanagh (Dublin, Ireland): Looking back three years from now, what player (or team) do you think is the most likely to be considered an over-draft (to have over-drafted)?

Bill Barnwell (Football): Matt Ryan.

Stan Brock (Oakland): Is there anyway the Chargers don't take an offensive tackle early? I think they have two on their roster and one is Jeremy Clary.

Bill Barnwell (Football): They've drafted exactly one offensive lineman early under Smith -- Marcus McNeill. They have confidence they can find linemen in the later rounds. So, not likely.

Brian (Nashville): Is Brodie Croyle a good enough reason for the Chiefs to pass on Matt Ryan?

Bill Barnwell (Football): This is a difficult question. He's not, but I wouldn't go after Ryan, either.

Felden (Davis): San Francisco--do they go after a wide reciever or an offensive lineman, or do they do something else with their first round pick? I keep seeing people give them yet another LB, when that seems to be a "strength", if anything in San Francisco can be called that.

Bill Barnwell (Football): I agree with you. They have lots of holes. I think wide receiver and especially offensive line are more pressing than linebacker. Poor Alex Smith is gonna get killed.


Bill Barnwell (Football): That is, in fact, exactly what I'm going to do right now.

Bill Barnwell (Football): Thanks for stopping by today everyone -- Mike Tanier will be doing a followup chat on Monday at 3 EDT, discussing the ramifications of the weekend. As always, check out http://www.footballoutsiders.com.

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