Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday July 09, 2021 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Another list, another chat

Buff (Colorado): How close was Roansy Contreras? Did his recent injury affect his ranking?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think there’s definitely a scenario where he sneaks on the back without injury. I got an abbreviated looks up to weather and then he immediately had forearm issues so I just zero that out. Assuming this is actually minor and he throws the balance of the year like his first two months he probably makes the 2022 Top 50

ironcityguys (daBurgh): Where does Marco Luciano finish in 2021? What level does he finish the 2022 season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he spends some time in High-A. 2022 progress is going to be completely in his hands and I wouldn’t be shocked if he sees some MLB time. Conversely I wouldn’t be shocked if there are some growing pains in Double-A.

dabu7 (NY): Obviously itā€™s an incomplete look and all bc they got hurt but were Allan and PCA trending towards being top-50 types before injury?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Allan more likely than PCA. I could see Allan being in the Daniel Espino area for sure. But pitchers, man.

Frank (Brooklyn): Hunter Greene or Ed Cabrera...who would you hang your hat on and why? is Cabrera the Marlins best SP prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I really have to think about this one, which probably means you could go either way. I like Cabrera’s stuff a little better on the whole, but are more worried about the injuries/durability which is funny since Greene obviously already had a TJ. I’ll
Put it this way, for me Greene has the better 25th and 75th percentile outcome, Cabrera the better 50th and 90th. We have Meyer over Cabrera for now, but some of that is health based, and Eder might be better than both by October.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): Any chance Julio Rodriguez pulls off an Acuna/Soto minor league ascent this year? He's tearing up AA, and he's similar in age to the other 2 guys when they got multiple promotions.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he could definitely do the Acuńa where he gets to Triple-A and hits there too. I dunno if he does the Soto which ends with him in the majors this year. That might be more service time related though.

Buff (Colorado): Did Brennen Davis get consideration for the top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was 50 until Brujan got optioned yesterday

Tyler (memphis, TN): Any information on Kristian Robinson? Will he play MiLB this year at all or is he a sunk cost at this point?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am very much not a fan of using the term sunk cost for someone dealing with significant mental health issues, but I don’t have any meaningful baseball information here.

Buff (colorado): Could you name a few hitters who just missed? Thanks for the chat.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The aforementioned Brennen Davis, Gabriel Moreno would have been on without the injury, Oswald Peraza, Zac Veen, George Valera

mikewilsonelgin (Rhode Island): You talk about young players losing out when they allow themselves to be bought out of their most productive years. What about the reverse. Seattle just gave a multi-year contract to a great-field, no-hit firstbaseman. Does that even things out or do the clubs have enough success to offset the failures?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The max contact years for the White/Kingery deals (which they might not even see because they are usually structured as team option/buyout years)are not nearly significant enough to affect what an org can do elsewhere on the roster, which is why team’s keep trying to get prospects to sign them. There is minimal downside.

Paulie (New Haven): Catchers are weird, man, but how often exactly are their ever catching prospects that have as much pure hitting potential as Alvarez does? Iā€™m thinking of like Posey and Mauer over the past 20 yrsā€¦..am I missing anyone?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean the last catching prospect with this level of hitting potential was Francisco Mejia who hit .342/.382/.514 at these levels as a 20 year old so...catchers are weird man.

Racer X (Japan): Jose Barrera and Nolan Gorman have Struggled since their promotions to AAA. Think theyā€™ll get called up this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Barrero is probably more likely than Gorman just based on position in the standings and team need right now. I wouldn't worry too much about a bad first week or so for either, but Triple-A will be a useful test of both's hit tool, even though we usually don't always think of that level as doing that.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): Keibert Ruiz... switch-hitter, only 22, and yes, it is the PCL. But, he doesn't have the swing-and-miss of so many failed prospects. When will he get his chance, and what kind of C can he be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if it's with the Dodgers is the thing, since they have a top five catcher in baseball in Will Smith and like Barnes as a backup. Wouldn't be shocked if he's moved for pitching help at the deadline. Seems like the time to do it for both Ruiz and the org.

Jon (Westchester, NY): What do you make of Vientos and Baty taking reps in left lately. Any real potential future there for either of them or do they just want both of them at Binghamton and want flexibility?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think it's just general positional flex stuff, although Vientos isn't likely to be a long term third baseman (and you'd like to see if he can be a 4 in LF before you lock him into first) and Baty isn't a lock for the hot corner either. Vientos could be a trade deadline showcase too, or just getting him ready for when they promote Baty.

jcring (Rhinebeck, NY): How aggressive will the Mets be in promoting Baty through the system? Is it realistic to expect he shows up at some point on the MLB roster towards the end of next season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: On that topic, he feels like a post-Futures-Game promotion which is something a lot of teams (including the Mts) often like to do.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): Does Corbin Carroll's injury impact Alek Thomas' opportunity to be CF in Arizona? Has Thomas' development been on track in 2021 so far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe in the short term. I think Carroll is the better center fielder once he's ready, but the shoulder injury does push the timeline back and Thomas has been hitting in Double-A. As far as his 2021, Thomas has really done everything I wanted to see in Double-A save maybe get the strikeout rate down a bit more.

VEronica (Riverview): Do you expect an active trade deadline? How will gripgate affect the pitching market?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's tough to tell yet, but given there should be a lot more buyers than sellers, I think so? The thing about spin rate is it stabilizes so quickly, teams should have more than enough data to adjust their evals of pitchers by now.

Josh (TX): Did Cole Winn get any consideration for the updated top 50? Would Jack Leiter make the Top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: His name came up, but he didn't make the 51-65 or so tier on our sheet, and he feels like more of an Eder/Strider type where we'd need to see a longer track record of this performance/command before we pull the trigger. We don't rank draftees on this even when the draft is before our publish date, but I think Leiter is safely a Top 50 prospect once he signs, barring any medical issues, and I'd probably have him in the next tier of arms down from Grayson/Baz.

Biff (Bayport): Vientos has hit very well lately. Do you see him as someone the Mets will deal at the deadline? Has his outlook improved or just a short term blip?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have no inside information here, but I suspect Vientos is the best prospect the Mets would be willing to trade, barring more of a blockbuster/years of control type deal. I think his outlook has improved somewhat, but a lot of his big month was a big week in one of the most friendly ballparks in the minors, and there's still swing-and-miss and positional/defense issues. The whole profile might end up very JD Davisish. Which, the Mets need to develop more JDs Davis, but that's also a player you should be willing to move to help your team in a playoff race.

Gary (Long Island): Obviously heā€™s not on the 50 but I heard you briefly mention Alex Ramirez of the Mets on the Twitch stream. How have the reports been? Someone we should be really excited about? Is he the Mets next explosive IFA prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They've been good. Not Top 50 good, maybe not even Top 101 good, but he's hitting the ball hard against much older/experienced competition. Feels more like a 2022 breakout though if it's coming.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Are you high on Andre jackson? The dodgers look to need internal/external replacements for their depleted rotation and perhaps a Kenley successor . While I would expect them to be active in the trade market Iā€™m wondering how you assess their in-house options

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think particularly so? Insomuch as I think he needs a bit more minor league time, has significant reliever risk (although the Dodgers could certainly leverage him in a Victor Gonzalez or Gonsolin type role) and probably should be behind Josiah Gray and "trade for a fourth starter" on the depth chart. Craig suggested Zach Davies on Five and Dive this morning.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lists never end, but they end for now. We'll do a Monday Evening Ten Pack on the draft this week, and then head back to the park. See you there.