Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mike Gianella

Chat: Mike Gianella

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday February 23, 2021 12:00 PM ET chat session with Mike Gianella.

Mike Gianella is a Senior Writer for the BP Fantasy Team.

Mike Gianella: Hey everyone. We're a little over a month from Opening Day, believe it or not, and fantasy draft season is in full swing. Looking forward to answering your questions today. Let's get started.

Bambino (Denver): I am fortunate to own Juan Soto in an NL 12 team, with 30% inflation. His contract is up so I can lock him up for more fun. Normally I would go 4 years at $19 per. I am leaning instead at 5 years at $24 per. Am I being a pig?

Mike Gianella: I don't know if you're being a pig or not but I'd definitely eat here and go the five years at that price.

James (NY): Hi Mike, Thoughts on the final 2021 stat lines for Austin Meadows and Ramon Laureano?

Mike Gianella: I see a bounce back for both, although I'm less confident in Meadows' stolen bases going forward than Laureano's. The general consensus on Meadows' projection is 25/10/.255 which seems about right. I could see the AVG being higher. Laureano is similar, but I could see him stealing 15-20 if he gets in 162 games or close to it.

Monkali (Cornwall ): Considering trading my Adell for the second pick (Austin Martin) in an OBP h2h dynasty. What caliber of player (pitcher ideally) would you add to that to make it even? Or do you think its fairly even as it is after Adells struggles last year?

Mike Gianella: I still value Adell highly so I'd want something else in that deal for Martin...unless you're looking way out into the future. If you're looking at a pitcher, I'd probably want someone in the DL Hall/Clarke Schmidt range as the sweetener.

Jimmy (South bend ): Feels like a lot of hype brewing round Leody Taveras, getting several trade offers. Is this good time to sell (in OBP league)? Or is he a must-hold in my steal starved team, do you reckon he'll be top-10 in that category?

Mike Gianella: In OBP I would sell if you can get people to buy in on him as a future Top 100 player. He could be top 10 in the category, but the overall package suggests there is some near term crash-and-burn too.

Smithy (Engerland): Working on a theory on how to re-evaluate hitters in the new deader-ball environment. Won my league in 2019 with players like Bryant, Baez, Garver and Altuve seemingly spraying line drives for homers with ease. Then they all fell off a cliff last year. So I reckon now is the time to switch to the really strong power hitters and fill out the rest of the roster with high average guys? These guys who've benefited from the launch angle revolution are all going to fall to earth, figuratively and literally in the case of their fly balls. What do you reckon?

Mike Gianella: I'd look for players whose average batted ball distance is low-ish who had a good amount of homers and adjust them down. The players I want to move up are players who are good contact hitters (not necessarily good AVG hitters) because they should benefit (good outcomes will come to them even if they're not HR hitters).

John (Boston): Mike: Do you think that jo Adell is still a top 5 prospect or are you worried that he will only be very good as compared to great?

Mike Gianella: He lost his rookie eligibility, but I would still have him in the top 10 of the BP list if he were eligible. I'm not particularly worried, but the contact issues are something to watch and hopefully it was just the short season/crash course that caused the problems.

Vic (Accord, NY): Need help with a few last keeper decisions in a 12-team Mixed 5 x 5. Can only keep 2 of these 6 and definitely no more than 1 of the 3 DHs. I am currently leaning towards keeping Maeda and Swanson. Although I feel any combination of 2 of these 6 isn't out of the question. Cruz, Stanton, Reyes Maeda, Swanson, Verdugo

Mike Gianella: If you're just looking at 2021 I'd go Maeda and Swanson as well. I might lean Verdugo over Swanson if you're looking long term.

Vic (Accord, NY): 15 Team Mixed 5 x 5. Really struggling to find a good #20 overall 2nd round pick. It's a keeper league so my choice is likely between three 3Bs....Arenado, Bregman, Rendon...two pitchers....Kershaw, Max or three OFs....Ozuna, Starling Marte, Springer. Any name of those 8 easily jump out to you?

Mike Gianella: None jump out. Based on my rankings I'd go with Bregman or Springer.

Mike (Albany): Where should I be targeting Deivi Garcia in a redraft league? Or are you not buying in due to the size/workload concerns?

Mike Gianella: My bid limit in AL-only is $3. I like Garcia but it really looks like the Yankees are trying to go with a lot of vets, give him more time in the minors if possible.

Buff (Colorado): I play in an NL only keeper league. Your bids on Gonsolin and May are low ($2). Is this because their market value is depressed by the Bauer signing, or because that’s what they are likely to earn? Would they be decent investments for the future, even at a somewhat higher price?

Mike Gianella: It's partially that and partially because these bids are geared toward one-and-done leagues. I would push them up to anywhere from $6-10 in a keeper league.

adamsternum (Cheyenne): Based on your rankings, it looks like players who are eligible at both OF and 1B are being considered 1Bs this year. Does that mean 1B is thinner and those guys are likely more valuable in a 1B slot than OF?

Mike Gianella: The positional rankings are based on overall dynamics and some historical perspective of the positional alignment, and generally aren't a specific commentary on any given year. Generally speaking, though, this is the case: if you have a 1B/OF you are better off slotting him at 1B during your draft and in-season.

kevinarts (Toronto): Almost every good FA seems to have gone to the NL. Is the prevailing attitude in the AL "heck, we can all try to squeak into the playoffs and see what happens?" And will we see a 2022 season?

Mike Gianella: I suspect it's more a case of teams either at the beginning of a long rebuild or teams that are great with little middle ground in the AL, whereas the NL is more balanced. I'd say we'll see some sort of season in 2022 even if it isn't 162 games.

AJ (Boston): There seemed to be a lot of prospects called up in the shortened 2020 season (i.e. greater % than previous years). Curious whether you've looked into the numbers on this and whether this observation matches the #/%s, and if yes, do you think this will continue in 2021?

Mike Gianella: I didn't do a deep dive, but I did notice this, yes. I suspect the number will be somewhat lower, assuming the minors will be mostly functional, particularly once more people start getting vaccinated and the COVID cases drop by the middle of the summer.

adamsternum (Cheyenne): BP used to do 3-year keeper value rankings, which I think got phased out a couple years ago. Any advice on similar resources for something in between redraft and dynasty?

Mike Gianella: I haven't seen anything like this elsewhere, sorry.

Big Mac (McDonalds): Thoughts on Brendan McKay moving forward? Do you see him as any more than a throw in in a deal or does he still hold value?

Mike Gianella: Never count the Rays out I suppose but I would try to get what I could for him in a deal at this point.

SplashGordo (PA): Hi Mike, thanks for taking our questions. How would you rank these dark horse closers in a 10-team AL-only standard roto categories league (roster 8P / 5 reserves): Clase, Dolis, Barlow. Do any stand out or should all be left on the waiver wire?

Mike Gianella: Dolis, Clase, Barlow. They're all kind of iffy. Dolis is the one I might hang on to early.

James (NY): Hi Mike, Kirby or Gilbert, who has better stats for 2022,? Career?

Mike Gianella: I'd lean Gilbert for 2022 and go with Kirby long term.

Buff (Colorado): Your NL only bid on Gavin Lux seems pretty bullish at $16. Can you explain? Do you expect him to bounce back and win the 2b position? How worried are you about his defense?

Mike Gianella: Some of that was staff input...I had him $2 lower initially. But yes, I expect him to run with the job sooner rather than later. His defense worries me a little but with the shift a more prevalent part of the game than it used to be subpar 2B defense doesn't worry me as much as it used to.

Mike Gianella: Thanks everyone for your questions today. Look forward to doing this again soon.