Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday February 17, 2021 1:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark Barry is the handsomest member of the BP Fantasy Team.

Mark Barry: Hello everyone. I see we've got some leftover Jeffrey questions still in the queue, so I'll do my best to answer those. Just imagine that I have an artisanal cocktail in hand and Sheffield Wednesday on in the background. Let's get it.

Pete (Texas): Who has the better 2021: Scherzer or Nola?

Mark Barry: I'll still take Scherzer, but it does seem like these two should pass one another in the next couple of years.

Mookie B (LA): If you had third pick overall. Who are you choosing? Me or Trout?

Mark Barry: Still Trout. Not sure how or when it happened, but we've somehow hit the point of underrating Mike Trout in fantasy. Which is wild.

Ryan (Montreal): When do you think Tyler Stephenson takes over the full-time catching duties in Cincinnati? Thanks.

Mark Barry: I've been working on the Get to Know Prospects column for Catcher Week and I'm sort of falling for Stephenson. I think he might be my second-favorite dynasty prospect behind the plate, and I'd be surprised if he didn't wrestle away the starter's job at some point this season.

Marc Barry (Tampa): Hi Jeffrey, please talk to me about your future crystal ball vision for Vidal Brujan with the Rays. Can you see him one day having 15 HR power to go with 40 SB’s? Thank you for taking my question!

Mark Barry: Hi Marc, cool name! I'd take the under on 15 homers, but I do think the speed for 40 steals (or more!) is there. He's a better roto guy than points.

CardsOps (St. Louis): How come the Cardinals are only projected 80 wins? The rotation is best in the central, the bullpen is the best in the central, and the lineup is the best in the central...how?

Mark Barry: I'm not sure I'm with you on the best (x3), but I understand the point. "The Central" of it all is doing a lot of the lifting for these projections, I think. So I'd expect most of the non-Pirates teams to be jumbled together in some order. The Cardinals could win the division! But you know, they could also win 80 games.

Quincy (Ames): Nick Senzel someone to buy low on or avoid due to health

Mark Barry: Depends on the cost, but I'm intrigued by getting in on Senzel now. He has been super injured so far in his career, but it wasn't too long ago that he was a top-10 dynasty prospect. If you can get a discount, I'm interested.

Logan (NJ): Just traded for Jean Segura + $15 (15% of annual budget) for Jamie Barria and Estevan Florial in 12 team, OPS/FIP (plus standard 5x5) league. I was looking for some speed and average. Does Barria or Florial ever become good enough to make me regret that?

Mark Barry: I do not think Barria or Florial will make you regret that, no.

ari (ny): Do you think it’s time to give up on Derek Fisher?

Mark Barry: Yes.

James (NY): Hi Mark, Mize, Manning or Skubal for 2021? For long term?

Mark Barry: Hi James! It's Mize for me for both. I think Skubal is probably a reliever, so I'm out on him in a fantasy setting.

bmurdoch (Chico, CA): Has the 2021 Baseball Prospectus been published and mailed yet? I'm pretty sure I ordered it but it has not yet arrived.

Mark Barry: It has indeed! The shipping timelines have varied based on where you purchase the book, I think, so hopefully you get it soon!

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Khalil lee someone to get excited about?

Mark Barry: Sure! He's very, very fast, so that in and of itself is enough of a reason to keep him on fantasy radars. There are also reports that he made some approach tweaks at the alternate site, so if those are sticky (and, uh, positive), he could be even more exciting.

eddie (NYC): Who is the better hitter, Rutschman or Torkelson?

Mark Barry: I'll take Tork.

Old Timer (Raleigh): Thoughts on Frankie Montas for 2021; safe #2-3 starter, wild card, or something else? Thanks.

Mark Barry: I don't think he's safe, but I do like Montas. He walked way too many guys last season, but the strikeouts were still there. If he cleans up the homer issues, he could be a 2-3, sure.

Flipai (Maryland): In a dynasty league I am looking for starting pitching to help in ERA and WHIP; how would you rank the following for this upcoming season: Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Pablo Lopez. Would these rankings change any when looking long term?

Mark Barry: Give me ALL the Pablo Lopez shares. After that, I'd have Urquidy, Framber, and Javier.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): I’ve always valued your perspective on pitchers. Who do you prefer Daniel Lynch or Edward Cabrera and why? Thanks.

Mark Barry: Why thank you CubbieBear. Oh that was meant for Jeffrey? Cool cool cool.

I actually like Cabrera a lot, so he's my pick here. JP wrote in the Marlins Top 10 that Cabrera's write-up is eerily similar to his future rotation mate, Sixto Sanchez, and while that's some lofty praise, even if he falls a bit short of that level, Cabrera would still be really good.

Ryan (Montreal): In a 16-tm OBP league, I am currently running Danny Jansen out as my catcher. Am I doomed?

Mark Barry: I wouldn't say you're doomed. Jansen actually walked a bunch last year, he just didn't hit. Like, at all.

Andrew Bailey (not that one) (Minnesota): DL Hall or Drew Waters in a keep forever dynasty league? Waters is almost universally ranked over Hall on almost any list you look at, fantasy or not. BUT, I love Hall's stuff and believe his athleticism will shine through to find the control he needs to be a SP2. Also, I'm scared of Waters' inability to get to hard contact despite the vague rumors of improved approach and RH development from his 2020 alternative site work.

Mark Barry: I'd rather have Waters. That said, it sounds a little bit like Hall is one of your dudes and you're trying to talk yourself into the move. Take your guys! It's way more fun.

Mathews (Pennsylvania): Does Gavin Lux get the 2B job in LA to start the season? How many Abs do you see him getting? Batting line- HR-Ang-Sb. Thanks

Mark Barry: I thought there was a decent possibility he'd start the season at 2B last year, so maybe you're asking the wrong person. He has been striking out a lot, which is troubling, but he also hasn't really gotten much of a chance to get acclimated. Let's say 450 PA with .255/18/7

Loria (Milwaukee, Wi): In a 20 team, keep 25, offline MiLB roster of 25 (so, 400 minors). My best prospect in Wander, but my best player is Tatis. How many assets should I ask for Wander? Alternatively, how high up the current rankings could I ask for in return? Top 40, 30?

Mark Barry: I would ask for a small fortune for Wander. I would also not trade Wander due to positional reasons. In the most recent Dynasty 500, Bret and Jesse had him as the number-18 ranked dynasty player, so you'd need to get something in that range to feel good about a move.

Ralphie (Boulder): Who do you like in the marlins pen - bass or hi I? Or ptbnl?

Mark Barry: Sure looks like Bass right now, but that's less than inspiring. Maybe Curtiss gets some time in the 9th after the trade today?

mikewilsonelgin (Rhode Island): Bill James used to complain in Baseball Abstract that catcher defense could not be quantified. Whenever a catcher with a great defensive reputation got traded mid-season, Bill would look closely at the stats for the two pitching staffs before and after the trade. Bill could see no difference. Nowadays, catcher defense is measured. What changed?

Mark Barry: Bill James used to complain? You don't say.

I think it's fair to say that there's a ton that goes into measuring a catcher's defensive merits, and I'm not sure just looking at the pitcher stats is the best way to go about it (similar to how an offense still scores runs when their best RBI guy goes on the IL). I think the ability to measure movement in addition to the quantitative stats has helped. I also think that game calling is the next great unknown for valuing catchers.

jugdish (Faber): Phillies have tried to improve the bullpen with some retreads. Wondering what you think of Connor brogdon?

Mark Barry: I'm interested to see if Brogdon's 2020 issues with the long ball continue. He induced a ton of whiffs, which is great and promising for a future high-leverage role.

Ryan (Montreal): Does Rowdy Tellez get enough at-bats to show his improvement last year wasn't a fluke? If you are buying, what can we expect from him in 2021?

Mark Barry: I think so. He's penciled in as the everyday DH and doesn't really have any discerning platoon splits to be in danger on that end. The Jays have a ton of guys to cycle in on offense, but that usually shakes itself out as a season progresses. Tellez is definitely a sneaky late-round target.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): I know there is limited information out there, but do you feel Asa Lacy possesses the type of stuff to propel him on a faster timeline than most 2020 draftees. Could we see him in KC in this year?

Mark Barry: Lacy was my favorite arm in this year's draft by a pretty wide margin. I wouldn't expect him to show up in Kansas City in 2021, but if he just dominates the minors, a relief cameo in September wouldn't be crazy.

steve (sibera): What would you expect Josh Bell's numbers to be in Washington

Mark Barry: The change of scenery was welcome for Bell, but I'm more intrigued by the approved in-game video coming back. I don't think he's 1st half 2019 Josh Bell, but let's say .265/25 homers?

Ryan (Montreal): Who closes in Cinci? Amir? Sims?

Mark Barry: Amir has definitely been campaigning for it, but might I interest you in a Sean Doolittle?

Meko (Home): Is the new baseball and humidor revival much ado about norhing

Mark Barry: The reasonable part of me says "I don't know". The, uh, less-reasonable part of me thinks that it could have a pretty large impact on lots of middle-of-the-road hitters and drastically decrease their power numbers.

Ryan (Montreal): With no DH, where does that leave Jake Cronenworth?

Mark Barry: Platooning at second base with Ha-seong Kim?

Ryan (Montreal): I have Joey Gallo in an OBP league. I want to just sit back and enjoy the ride, but i'm kinda nervous. Thoughts?

Mark Barry: The only thing to be nervous about with Gallo is the injuries. If he's in the lineup he's gonna be a power/OBP monster. Enjoy the ride!

Mark Barry: That'll do it for today. Thanks to everyone who asked questions, you all are the coolest.