Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday February 05, 2021 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer at Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Only an hour late which as the parent of a baby is early best I can tell.

ari blum (ny ): How real do you think was Narvaezā€™ defense this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, catcher framing is both pretty teachable and pretty sticky (in terms of stabilizing quickly as a new skill level). It also tends to decline relatively early but Narvaez is still young enough you might get a few more good defensive seasons out of him .

Carl (Arizon): What are the chances that Varsho continues to keep catcher eligibility?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Reasonably high? I guess it depends on your league settings, but I’d want to catch him at least once a week.

spotted cow (Rockford): I realize this may not be your forte but I have a fantasy question, obp league keep everyone forever joey gallo vs Rhys Hoskins?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It is not my forte but I’d probably lean Gallo’s upside over Hoskins and it’s tough to find that truly elite level of power. Since this probably also ends up in TINO this week, let me just say I’d take both over Matt Olson

spotted cow (Rockford ): With a few major trades this offseason do you think any of the prospects that have changed hands are likely to be stars? Who is the most interesting prospect to have changed hands thus far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There’s certainly guys with upside if a dearth of present 101 types on the move. Cole Wilcox, Owen Caissie and Reginald Preciado would be the three standouts in that regard. Obviously Patińo is the best name on the move and there is obvious TOR upside there

Mike (Ny): Your early picks for MVPā€™s and Rookie Of The Year and do you think Soto wins the triple crown this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don’t think there’s quite enough in the lineup to project Soto as the RBI leader as much as that liens of thing is projectable. Let’s go AL MVP: Trout, NL MVP: Tatis jr, AL ROY: Mountcastle, NL ROY: Sixto

Quincy (Ames): Whose the 1b of the future for the rockies? Montero or toglia?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably Toglia

Jack (CO): I believe you have some first hand experience with Colton Welker in Hartford. Do you think he deserves a shot to replace Arenado this year? What kind of player could he be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I did. And granting limited insight into his 2020 development I think he could use a little more minor league consolidation time. Personally would like to see what McMahon can do there with an uninterrupted run of playing time, but I don’t really count on the Rockies doing anything I’d want or expected. More broadly on Welker, the glove looked fringe at third and even against a double-A arms the swing was out of control enough that he could be exploited with sequencing even average stuff. He does hit the ball hard when he makes contact though.

Trev (NY): Would you have signed Bauer for 3 years oevr Springer for 5? Are the Mets still the third best team in the NL (and maybe the MLB)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would not have done that no.

Old Timer (Raleigh): With a prospect like Tyler Soderstrom, what weight, positive or negative, is given in prospect evaluation to the fact that his father was a major leaguer? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don’t think it matters broadly on like a skill/tool level, but I recall Brian Bannister once saying that the biggest benefit he got from his Dad was being able to call him on the road and talk about where he was developmentally and what was happening and have someone who could understand and talk about it with him.

Fred (Whitfield): Who do you like for 2022 at 3b for the rockies-McMahon or schunk?thoughts on schunkā€™s upside?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Intrigued by the volume of Rockies third base questions. I like Schunk a fair bit and I think long term more than Welker. I imagine the 2022 third base situation will be mostly dictated by how the 2021 third baseman does whether that’s McMahon or if Colorado just uses like Fuentes or Hampson there which they are definitely capable of doing

Frank (NY): If the Mets go over the luxury tax to sign a FA pitcher, do you think we see a flurry of big AAV 1-year deals. It seems like the luxury tax threshold was a 'significant demarcation,' and it seems like they are more worried (rightfully) about future payroll flexibility than actual dollar outlay. If they say f-it we are over the tax, maybe we see 1/$25 for Justin Turner, 1/$15 for JBJ and 1/$10 for Rosenthal?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They probably should do that, but there’s been a bunch of things this offseason that they should
have done.

Jon (CA): There are some very positive reports on Tyler Soderstromā€™s bat. How similar is his offensive ceiling to Veen and Hassell?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Little more power potential than Hassell, but less present/future hit, probably a step below Veen’s bat. I wouldn’t be shocked if with a “full” 2021 and more positional clarity he isn’t far off Hassell at least as a prospect.

eddiecomic (NYC): Is Keston Hiura still worth hanging onto? Will playing first take away his agitation of having to play the middle of the infield?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wonder if he gets some playing time elsewhere, but as a pure first baseman I assume you can do better, even if the bat bounces back like I expect it to. Now realizing I think I have him in the TINO league, but my other first basemen are CJ Cron and Rowdy Tellez so...I guess maybe don't ask me dynasty questions haha

Jon (FL): What are the developmental keys for Mike Meyer to stick as a starter? If he can, is he someone with frontline starter potential or more a good mid rotation type?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Realistically the change isn't likely to get to the point where it's a three pitch and average command profile, so you are hoping the two pitches are so good it doesn't matter and the frame holds up on a starter's workload and you get something like better Joe Ross. Which I guess is just a good mid-rotation type.

Paul (Texas): It seems in putting your lists together that most of the recent J2 (J15?) signings weren't considered. Any lists you'd go back and revise, or any recent international signings that would immediately merit inclusion at a high level?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, we literally didn't have signing confirmation until after I filed the last list around New Year's (and I wont play the "likely to sign" game with 15 year old kids). I'd generally be uninterested in ranking them since we don't even have tricky league or potential domestic instructs info, and most of these deals were agreed to years ago.

Jake (DC): Cavalli seems to be a high stuff low deception type. That seems like a bad combo to get benefit from modern pitching development (ie technology aided pitch design improvements). Does that make sense or it over thinking things?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I think it's probably thinking a little too granular, even if it's broadly accurate in terms of present developmental philosophy ideas. "What if he maxes his spin efficiency" is just a less interesting question to me than "how does he look when he's pitching?"

Bob (Prince): Does the trade of Fowler Signal that the cards will be signing/trading for another outfielder? Fowler was very meh but I canā€™t imagine an outfield of oneil, Bader and carlson. I like carlson but the other two look like 4th outfielders

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think they probably wanted to clear the spot/money (as little in real cash as it was) regardless but I wouldn't be shocked if they are looking to bring Ozuna back.

Biff hooper (Bayport): Omar narvaez- I went into thinking he was a nice late gamble in a 10 team nl only. Thought the park would help. He was uh, not good . With off for 2021 or still a worthwhile flyer .

Jeffrey Paternostro: You can probably find a better fantasy catcher even in that limited format.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lists are wrapped. Futures Guide is available. I'm gonna nap and see you in April...maybe.