Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday January 29, 2021 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: List season rolling to a close let's chat about it.

Buff (Colorado): The most startling omission on the Dynasty 101 is Luis Campusano. Is this due to catcher bias, legal issues, or these and other factors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm not the Dynasty guy, but as Ben Carsley was involved I assume it's catcher bias.

Ryan (Montreal): I know he isn't technically a prospect anymore, but do you think Gavin Lux is going to get enough AB's to live up to his lofty ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure looks like he's going to be the everday second baseman at this point, or as much an everyday anything as the Dodgers have. I think 450 PA is probably the floor assuming performance/health

uncasf1 (Raleigh): Nomar Mazara won't be 26 until April. Given his age and past expectations, I am surprised no one has taken a flyer and signed him. Does this signal that teams have given up on the potential?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I've long said I'll be the last one to give up on Mazara, but even I'm out now.

Ryan (Montreal): In regards to the Oakland pitching staff this year, is it possible we see both Jefferies and Kaprielian in the starting rotation?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think that's ideal given either's injury track record (and frankly there's no evidence Kaprelian can handle close to that workload), but I assume you will see both at some point given the depth issues in that rotation at the moment.

Fred (New York): Based on team needs and perceived availability, it seems like the Mets would be wise to pursue a Sonny Gray - Eugenio Suarez trade. Mets could also take back Shogo Akiyama (owed $15MM) over next two seasons to lower player cost from their side as well as land someone who can play CF. Does JD Davis, Brett Baty, Freddy Valdez and Szapucki get the Mets close?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the inherent problem with valuing a return here is not knowing if the Reds want a consummate value return or want to unload the salary obligation. That'a light on its face given the length and AAV for both, but if you mostly just want to clear 90 million or so guaranteed...

Quincy (Ames): Rece hinds-anything to see here or move along?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's a guy with dude potential. Potential 2021 breakout with actual game reps.

Anonymous (The ether): All set for your TINO 2.0 draft?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm pretty pleased that I managed to squeeze Evan Carter in the third round before our Monday Morning Ten Pack went up. And that enough J2 guys went early enough that I got one of the bats I was targeting with my first pick.

Ryan (Montreal): Do you think Kirilloff is destined for first base? If so, is it right away or do you think he squeezes in a few seasons as an OF? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Destined? No. I think you probably keep outfield eligibility for a while at least, especially given the Twins logjam at 1B/DH. Might not be great there, but that's more a real baseball issue than a fantasy baseball issue.

Buff (Colorado): Why is Edward Cabrera a better prospect than Josiah Gray?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Better fastball, and probably better secondary in the changeup. That gets faded some by the durability/relief questions, although Gray has some relief risk himself.

uncasf1 (Raleigh): Do you have any favorite prospect pitchers not in the top 101 who you evaluate potentially as the whole may be greater than the sum of the parts? thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's not my guy, but Keanan talked of Balazovic a lot, and he'd broadly fit that type. I'll throw in Blake Walston as well.

uncasf1 (Raleigh): Do you have any favorite prospect pitchers not in the top 101 who you evaluate potentially as the whole may be greater than the sum of the parts? thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's not my guy, but Keanan talked of Balazovic a lot, and he'd broadly fit that type. I'll throw in Blake Walston as well.

Ryan (Montreal): I have several first-round picks in our upcoming FYPD and I am looking to re-stock the cupboard with pitching prospects. Can Meyer hold up as a starter? Is Lacy a safer pick? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lacy is definitely safer and overall the better prospect. I don't know if Meyer is a traiditonal 32/180 type starter, but Keanan was somewhat bullish on him having some soft of rotation role. The relief fallback is high leverage too, so that's not a bad fallback.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): What grades would you give Josh Naylor's hit & game power tools now? He looked pretty amazing in the playoffs and his contact rates are impressive.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I liked the bat some as a prospect, but I'm gonna weight the 400 or so MLB PA over the 7 against the Yankees. There's certainly a 55/55 hit.power outcome here, but I think he's probably just short of that and makes for a tough corner fit.

Simply Red (The Ball): When do Wander, Kelenic, and Adley get their respective calls?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Tough to see any up before the Super 2 cutoff given the stances of their respective orgs on that kind of stuff. Franco could be the exception there just on need/upside/proximity to contention, although the Rays don't lack for upper level MI options. All three should be ready before that mind you.

Josiah Gray (L.A.): If you look into your crystal ball, can you comment on what my best major league season looks like?

Jeffrey Paternostro: 160 innings, 3.20 ERA, 170 K

Stringer (Where Wallace at? ): Do you buy the Alt-site reports of Triston Casas blossoming into a plus-hit, plus-power masher? If you have concerns, can you share them with us? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Without getting too much into the weeds about how we handled that stuff, we wouldn't be surprised if it's true, we faded it somewhat when ranking him, and the concern is we haven't seen it in actual games yet.

Vanessa (Des Moines): Nolan Jones ends up a power-hitting (insert position here) for the Cleveland Baseball Team this year......

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh let's say RF for fun. I wouldn't be utterly convinced it's this year based on the 2019 Double-A performance, but dealing with ETAs for prospects coming off 2020 is basically a giants shruggie face for me in most cases.

Jay (Manassas): Which 3 guys from the Top 101 do you think will have had the most MLB impact when looking back 10 years from now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I don't expect to be right mind you, but the whole premise of the list is that it's the top three guys, no?

John (New York): Hey Jeff, Do you think Arozarena is the real deal or just a flash in the pan? please rank going forward Arzoarena...Plesac..Framber Valdez. thanks John

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think he's a 40 home run guy, which is what his pace so far would suggest, but he does look like a fairly legit mid-20s power breakout. The swing and miss risk is still real, although he looked like he started to adjust to same-side spin some in the playoffs, but I'd take him over the other two guys pretty comfortably.

uncasf1 (Raleigh): I read what Mr. Winkelman wrote about Connor Seabold on the Boston top 10 piece. Do you have anything to add from your perspective? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm in the same range on Seabold as I don't know that there's really an out pitch, but I've talked to scouts that think i'm too low there.

Joe (Tampa ): Was Jesus Sánchez’s debut so bad that he’s not even a just missed, or is it more of a trend the past couple of years?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was a tier below the just missed, so we aren't all the way out, but the trend lines are bad given it's a bat-first profile.

Dominique (Francona): One of the more puzzling/interesting deals of the offseason was the Jeff Hoffman case Williams for Robert stephenson . Do you think Hoffman can be salvaged. Williams supposedly had a high spin rate and the reds were targeting him in the draft. Thoughts?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I've also said I'd be the last one to give up on Hoffman, and I'm not all the way out there yet. It was a bit of a weird trade, but the Rockies are weird, and I think it's more a change of scenery swap for two out of favor arms than anything.

NYAPBA (Commack NY): If you could only pick one OF: Kelinec or J Rodriguez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, Rodriguez ranked higher so I guess that's my answer, although I will say the confidence here is a matter of scant few percentage points. Kelenic is more likely to be exactly a plus regular while Rodriguez is more likely to be like one of the ten best players in baseball, so you could weight things slightly differently and come to a different conclusion and I wouldn't quibble

Jeffrey Paternostro: Toronto and Washington round us out next week. Not the most exciting ending, but it's an ending