Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday January 15, 2021 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It’s a chat.

jugdish (Faber): Jake McGee quietly had a nice year . Small sample size or something to believe in?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I’m always a little leery of believing in the next 60 innings of any older, non-elite reliever. Or really any reliever. And in this case we are talking 20 innings. Was a hell of a 20 innings though.

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Collin (Miami): Can you provide two or three prospect names that are outside the top 50 that you think will be top 10 by the end of the year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am taking this as 2021 breakouts and given the lack of 2020 information; I’d expect a bunch, but you are talking about a really big jump in a projection sense. A lot of the guyswouod end up in the majors for too long if they made the talent jump, so you are talking high upside recent IFAs like Dominguez and Peńa that are probably already unavailable in your dynasty league. Liover Peguero and Jordan Walker fit this general description though. I don’t think either *wil* be top ten but might be presently undervalued by our rankings.

Old timer (Raleigh): JP Breen had a nice article published today on late round dynasty targets. From your perspective, do you have any favorite less heralded prospects who have a chance on becoming significantly more than their current tools suggest. thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Evan Carter, Brayan Buelvas, Orelviz Martinez, and Masyn Wynn are a few personal favorites

noah (New York): Is there a baseball reason for the Mets to be worrying about the luxury tax this season? The penalties are minimal on small overages, but are fears of worse penalties in the upcoming CBA valid?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The main reason to stay under this year is it keeps you in the min penalty next year when the Cano money lands back and you can't really stay under. Does that *really* matter in the grand scheme of Cohen's wealth? No, but every team has some sort of budget.

Biff hooper (Bayport): Who do you like among Oviedo,ponce de Leon, and gomber?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oviedo in both the short and long term I think. Gomber is probably just a solid reliever, and while I like Ponce de Leon, he's never quite thrown enough strikes and the sample is getting larger there. Oviedo might end up with enough to start and has the most upside in the pen

Dan (NY): Having a hard time getting a read on the Kris Bryant market, but seems like the mets want to hold on to their top tier guys. Would they be willing to trade Vientos and would he even be a good enough prospect to be the centerpiece?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yes, and if the Marlins don't have to part with a top ten prospect for Contreras as I've seen reported, Vientos should be plenty.

Flipai (Maryland): Thank you for these Friday chats. Out of curiosity, where would Ha-seong Kim fall in the Padres Top Ten List? What is his fantasy outlook for this season and beyond?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he's like a 55/Low in our scale, which would put him right above or below Hassell depending on how you want to weight upside versus horizon. For fantasy purposes, something like .270 with 15-20 home runs. Guess the big question is how much he will run and who knows really. He should get good counting stats in that lineup, although there is some risk he ends up more of a 500 PA just on volume of good players they try to find lineup spots for.

Old timer (Raleigh): Of these prospects, who is most likely to get significant MLB playing time in 2021? Jarren Duran, Kyle Isbel, Jeter Downs, or Luis Barrera. Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Royals seem to be the most willing to play the prospects. I expect once you manipulate Nick Pivetta's service time, you will do the same with Downs and Durran. Barrera doesn't really strike me as a starter once he's up, but it's the A's so who knows.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): How to plan for a huge increase in innings this year? Will teams try to reduce starters innings, more roster churn? Would think if thatā€™s the case there would be huge demand for relievers this offseason. Do you expect more dl stays this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is a good question, and I don't have a good answer. Your veterans who have thrown 150+ before are probably broadly okay, but I dunno how you handle someone like MacKenzie Gore. I think it depends on the ultimate roster size decision, which given recent history we will find out around 3/25.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Didnā€™t the marlins make a mistake in passing on Austin Martin in the draft? Seems like they need position players more at this point.

Jeffrey Paternostro: We as a team prefer Martin, but they ended up close enough on the 101, I won't quibble too much with taking the potential impact arm with more upside. It's also easier to acquire bats in other means, although I know that's the reverse of conventional wisdom on team building.

J.A. (Vancouver): Who do you think are the biggest sleepers to have breakout years. I am looking for guys that are outside the top 100.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can always tell when it's Dynasty Draft season. See above, if we are expanding it to outside the 100, let's throw in Quinn Priester, Tyler Soderstrom, and Pete Crow-Armstrong

Simon (Dallas): I am in a dynasty keeper league. I believe this is a rebuilding year for my team. If you were me, would you draft top pitcher prospects (Pearson, Howard, Manning, etc.) or guys who will be coming back from TJS (whose values will be low in the auction) (i.e., Sale, Clevinger, Syndergaard)? I am trying to stack my roster for 2022.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if I would draft those three top pitchers given the injury/performance issues in 2021. I might split the difference and target Pearson for upside and Syndergaard as a medium term bounceback guy.

jugdish (Faber): What to make of Gavin Lux? Has there ever been any explanation for the late arrival to camp?how bad are the reported yips? Is a position change in the works? Would have thought he would have been up,earlier than he was. Dodger still high on him.?buy low or sell low?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's probably going to be the starting second baseman for 2021, and we think he's fine in the short and long term. If he was still eligible I would have been hard-pressed to knock him out of the top ten, so I'd hold at worst, acquire if you can.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): What do you think of Drew Rasmussen?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Good, if frustrating reliever. Will have some years where he's a good setup level guy, some where he makes you want to tear your hair out late in games.

Charles (Toronto): Who are the two or three best relievers that you think will not start out as the closer but have the stuff to become top-notch closers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Haha this might also be Nate Pearson. A healthy Devin Williams (which is an if now) is the other obvious one.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Psst. Next week Top 101 chat