Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday January 08, 2021 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's Friday. You know what that means.

George altman (Chicago): How does the Cubs infield situation sort out for 2023 and beyond with morel,made,Verdugo,Howard,preciado,santana,?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Preciado's position is somewhat wide open, but he's unlikely to stick at short. Morel is a pretty good third baseman and the bat development is positive. My prognostication powers aren't even that great for 2021 but lets go with Howard/Morel on the left side by the time Avatar 3 is out. Made and Preciado probably aren't even in the majors by then honestly.

Ty cline (Cincinnati): The Indians return for an injured clevinger looks pretty good. What are the odds that a year from now the rays and cubs will be very happy with their deals in that darvish and snell have their injury histories. Would have thought preller would have preferred pitchers without the injury risk

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would argue that unless they knew he was going to blow out, the opportunity cost of that deal still matters. Process over outcome. There's always a risk the really good pitcher you acquire will get injured. You should still get the really good pitchers whenever you can.

Jim mcintyre (Cincinnati): Rank em- kbryan hayes, will smith(c),Trent Grisham,Jesse winker,Dom Smith

Jeffrey Paternostro: Smith over Hayes on major league floor/platform performance and positional scarcity, then Dom, Grisham, Winker, but I'm not super sold on the order of the last three. Winker might be the best for 2021, but he's never really had a full season and is going to be 28.

ari blum (ny): Do winter league performances affect your outlook on players?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not usually, except for specific situations/instances (x is healthy now, y has a new pitch). Much like the AFL, most years we already have a season's worth of live looks and other info. This year, we've paid more attention to stuff like instructs and offseason leagues, but Jeremy Pena is really the only prospect that I think has moved a little off his actual winter ball performance.

Hank (NY): Have heard that Matt Allan had impressive trackman numbers at the alternate site; what exactly does that mean? Does that mean something like his spin rates are 90th percentile, or he started throwing with more velocity?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Both. Good pitch type characteristics is the euphemism. The good TM was there as an am too, but as Jarrett likes to say, we like to see it when they aren't pitching in shorts.

Greg ( NY): Given some leaks and slow offseason, seems like price on Lindor is lower than it was a month or so ago? Think the Mets can get him without one of their top 3 prospects?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Greg, I do.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Are there any young bullpen arms that debuted this season that you are smitten with? Who are your favorites?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Antone (assuming he stays a pen arm, which I think the Reds should at least try him as a starter) and Heuer are the two main ones.

Pete (NY): A couple Mets salary related questions, given the assumption that the Mets' financial standing being their main strength (with regard to player acquisition) but they'd like to initially stay under the tax: - I don't understand the backloaded James McCann contract, as the Mets (SAC) not have cash flow problems (8,8,12,12) - if they front loaded the contract, wouldn't that theoretically decrease the total amount of the contract, lowering the salary tax figure? Maybe if you give him 12 in years 1&2, you can give him 7 in the last two, lowering luxury tax figure by more than 5%. -Since deferred salary does not count towards luxury tax, do you think we may see the Mets prefer to defer large amounts of salary on any decently sized contracts given this offseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: With the caveat that this is a Rob Mains question and I can barely manage a household budget, I believe the CBT figure is merely the AAV, so how you shape the deal doesn't matter a ton, and there are time value of money reasons to backload. In this case it makes the tax number higher than the raw salary (something the Wilpons were fond of doing so they could claim they were closer to the tax than they functionally were). I know Alderson said they were cognizant of the tax, but I don't think they are close enough at present to worry about rigoruously manipulating their CBT figure, and I'm not sure how much they care about going over by a few million anyway.

ari blum (ny): When are the last edits made to the annual? For example, would Francisco Lindor be in the Mets section?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lindor will be in the Mets chapter.

Earl (NY): Talks of Mets being up there with Dodgers/Padres overblown?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think they are probably the fourth best team in the NL at present behind the Braves as well. But they have two or three obvious places to improve that they can do within budget to close that gap. And it's not a huge gap.

Yates (TX): Which Mets prospect is most likely to make a jump to the top 15? Top 100?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Top 15: Allan
Top 100: Uhhhhh, I mean PCA is a cheat since he was probably only 20 spots or so off as is. So let's say a healthy Ginn

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): What to make of josh bell? Better hitters park, but he’s been lousy since the allstar game 2019. Buy low or stay away?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I know the Nats are talking up they have a swing fix already--and hey, Kevin Long is really good at his job--but I'm not really in on it a ton. That said, if it works you won't get a shot at him past like the second week of the season probably.

ari blum (ny): Assuming a shortened but otherwise normal minor league season, where do you think yoelqui cespedes will start and when will he be mlb ready?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm reliably informed by Nick Schaefer that White Sox twitter thinks you have to keep an outfield spot open for him for like 2022, but he hasn't played for a while now, and I'd expect him to start in A-ball. He could move quickly I suppose, but something like the Jose Garcia timetable is the optimistic take.

Matt (Flushing): How would you finish off the Mets offseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So some of this depends on exactly what the budget room left is. That said, if you can afford Springer, you go get Springer and try to outslug everyone while seeing who's left without a chair on the pitching side around 2/10. I think there is an argument to take that AAV and spread it around to a couple spots, something like JBJ/Hendricks or JBJ/Odorizzi or whatever.

Matt (Flushing): How would you finish off the Mets offseason?

jugdish (Faber): And what to make of Kim with cronenworth seemingly blocking him.and the forecast?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Padres seem to be making noise that Kim is just going to be the everyday second baseman and Cronenworth will bounce around as a 450-500 PA type. Which honestly is probably the best fit for his skillset. Also good insurance in case Kim struggles early, but I think Kim is the PT priority for now.

Hugh (NJ): I am old enough to remember when the Mets were trading Jeff McNeil, Andres Gimenez and PCA for Lindor

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the trade proposal column/media industry is worse than the Hall of Fame take industry honestly. We just don't know how teams value guys or what the ultimate motivation to make the deal is.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gotta keep this one short since it's book crunch week. We'll be back next week.