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Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Jeffrey Paternostro: Stove is cold, but let's chat
The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): How does the Nate Lowe acquisition affect the short & long-term future of Sherten Apostel?
Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think it makes a huge difference short term. He was going to need more time in the minors. I guess you hope he can be a part time 3B, but there is a DH slot too, so if he hits I expect finding playing time for Lowe and Apostel won't be a huge problem.
Rex (LI): In last week's chat, in response to a Lindor mock proposal from the Mets (JD/Rosario/Baty/Santos), you mentioned the framework of a deal looked right, but that the Indians were interested in other prospects. Their interest in Allan and Alvarez seems pretty well-known at this point - do you mean that the Indians are really only interested in a deal that includes one of those guys? If it is just that they were interested in other guys (not baty, santos, etc), which Mets prospects do you think the Indians may be interested in?
Jeffrey Paternostro: I had actually heard Allan/PCA but that was a couple weeks ago now. Regardless, there are multiple ways the two teams could structure a deal. I wouldn't have any prospect off the table for Lindor if I were the Mets, but if you are leading off the deal with a serious major league piece (McNeil's name has been kicked around) that might affect the quality and quantity of prospects I included. Conversely if you were dealing Rosario or Davis as the top piece, you'd have to include more and better prospects, perhaps two of Allan/Alvarez/PCA. Gimenez perhaps you split the difference.
ari blum (ny): Would you prefer Tomoyuki Sugano or Kohei Arihara, assuming a 3 year deal?
Jeffrey Paternostro: Kaz thinks Sugano is the better bet to have major league success so that is where I would spend my money.
Doug (New york): Should the Mets be favored for a guy like Sugano since they can fork up a big posting fee that won’t count against the tax ?
Jeffrey Paternostro: So that's one way to look at it, but the Mets really haven't been in that market since Daisuke. They do have some Pacific Rim experience in the FO and Sugano has been a known name for a while, so you should be comofortable with a valuation, but I just don't know their level of interest.
ari blum (ny): Does Tyler Wade have any possible bat progression or was his bat overhyped?
Jeffrey Paternostro: So on the one hand he hasn't gotten prolonged run in the majors and has hit well in Triple-A. On the other hand, he's 26 and .190 is .190 and it's not a small MLB sample. He's a good enough defender at enough the spots the Yanks seem to want to keep him around, but I wonder if a change of scenery wouldn't help. It probably wouldn't but I'd be curious since I am bad at getting off old reports.
Tyler (memphis, TN): Now that Nate Lowe has been traded away from the Rays, do you seen an increased role for him and what are your projections for him in he next year?
Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd assume he's getting the lion's share of 1B/DH at-bats. I've always seen him more as a solid regular than a star and the early returns on Texas's park is that it's absolutely brutal for hitters so 15 percent better than average there might not jump off the page in terms of slash line/counting stats.
Tyler (memphis, TN): Now that Nate Lowe has been traded away from the Rays, do you seen an increased role for him and what are your projections for him in he next year?
Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd assume he's getting the lion's share of 1B/DH at-bats. I've always seen him more as a solid regular than a star and the early returns on Texas's park is that it's absolutely brutal for hitters so 15 percent better than average there might not jump off the page in terms of slash line/counting stats.
The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Dane Dunning or Cristian Javier?
Brady Singer or Triston McKenzie?
Jeffrey Paternostro: Dunning, somewhat comfortably. Singer, but it's close
Ed Golterman (St. Louis): Before Covid, the sports empires in downtown St. Louis, and a 3rd muscled its way in, had the citizens of St. Louis and County a billion down in long-term debt. Or more. The sports media here never ever writes about the brutal economic drain.And how this has weakend the City. Collectively they will impose another billion this decade. This may or may not include the forever-debt to operate the failed convention center and dome. The NFL and the Rams continue to burden us. How can you present the 'social' responsibilities of baseball when it and the other sports bankrukpt cities?
Jeffrey Paternostro: That's Neil deMause's beat so I would mostly suggest just reading Field of Schemes. I've seen it on the minor league side too obviously, but I'm not an economist. My personal politics lean towards "no metropolis should contribute large amounts of money to a privately held building without a real stake in it," but that ship has sailed, and saying stuff like that out loud tends to really annoy the commenters. I don't think anyone here is shy about talking about the social responsibilities of baseball, but for some reason they don't seem to listen to us.
ari blum (ny): Do you honk that Kyle Holder’s bat is at least a 40 in the majors?
Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't, and if the Yankees did he probably would have been added the 40 at some point.
Johan Fantasy (Dombrowski's mind): What organization would you most want Johan Rojas end up with when Dombrowski trades him?
Jeffrey Paternostro: My default setting when any interesting outfield prospect comes up in this context is to think of Cleveland, but that just might be from listening to Mark Barry every week. I know they are trying to build a new stadium but he'd be a fun tiny righty power bat in that Toronto lineup.
Danny (NY): I keep trying to conjure scenarios where the Mets trade for Lindor, but instead of paying in purely prospects/young talent, they partially pay the cost by taking on bad money. Even though Cleveland doesn't have that bad money contract to dump, a 3-way trade that accomplishes this has to exist, right?
How about a 3 way trade where the Mets end up with Lindor and Lorenzo Cain, Brewers send a prospect to Cle and the Mets send JD/Amed and a prospect or two to Cle.
Assuming Cain's contract is something like ~15-20MM underwater, maybe they'd be willing to trade one of Rassmusen/Small/Ashby out
Could look something like
Brewers- Trade: Cain + Ras/Small/Ashby
Receive: Salary Relief
Mets- Trade: Amed Rosario, Mark Vientos, Szapucki
Receive: Cain, Lindor
Indians- Trade: Lindor
Receive: Amed Rosario, Ras/Small/Ashby, Vientos, Szapucki
What do you think?
Also, what do you think of these other alternate 3rd teams/bad contracts and whether they'd be willing to send a meaningful prospect to Cleveland in a salary dump:
PHI/McCutchen, CHI/Kimbrel, STL/Carp or Fowler, CIN/Moustakas
Jeffrey Paternostro: Three-way deals can make things far more complicated and for Milwaukee specifically while I don't doubt they'd love to get out from the Cain money, they really aren't in a spot to be dumping a prospect to do it given the state of their system. The most straightforward way for the Mets is to just take Carrasco's remaining contract as well.
Jeffrey Paternostro: Brisk one today, but we will be back next week.
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