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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday November 13, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Let's see if we remember how to do this.

Mike (Ny): Does Marco Luciano have a higher ceiling than Franco and Rodriguez.

Jeffrey Paternostro: You could argue higher than Franco, but I don't know that there's a prospect with a higher ceiling than Rodriguez this year.

Jay (Manassas): What kind of offensive profile do you foresee for Leody in 2021 and moving forward / think he's likely to get the CF job for the bulk of this season? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the hit tool will make some strides with more reps. I think the power increase was mostly real too. I think you could certainly give him the CF job, but some consolidation time in Triple-A wouldn't be the worst developmental idea either. If you want a 2021 line, something like .250/.320/.400? There's more in the tank there of course.

ari blum (New York): Do videos and/or reports from alternate sites have any effect on prospect evaluations? How reliable are they?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well Jarrett covers this in our prospect list intro to an extent. It's all we have in a lot of cases, but you get wildly mismatched levels of competition, and calling them a competitive environment would be a real stretch. IT's closer to like minor league side Spring, and I don't find that particularly useful unless you don't have anything else. And for most guys we don't have anything else. You can gleam bits and pieces of usefulness, but it's an incomplete picture.

Flipai (Maryland): Any info on how Tristan Casas has looked? I know he didn’t initially get invited to the alternate camp but I believe ended the season there. Any chance he makes it to Boston in 2021?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So here's an example of alternate site info and it's relative usefulness. We got positive markers on his approach and glove, which were two things I would have been looking for from him in Salem this year. Does that make up for a year of lost game time? I don't have a great answer, functionally I think he's more or less held serve. I think if he'd done a A+/AA split in 2020, there'd be an off chance you'd see him in 2021, now I'd be far more bearish. There's no particular reason to push him that hard anyway.

Quincy (Ames): Who says no? Tucker Barnhart for Brendan Rogers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd want a clean bill of health and some more confidence in the bat against major league pitching before I dealt for Brendan Rodgers.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Who s playing short for the reds in 2021?could j. India work?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sticking with the Cinci SS situation. It sounds like India is pretty much a second baseman now. Running it back with Garcia seems risky given their win-now roster, might be a good landing spot for Didi?

ari blum (New York ): Of the Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure, and Albert Abreu, which do you think are most likely to end up as a starter or have an impact in 2021?

Jeffrey Paternostro: King is the most likely starter, but would have less of an impact as a starter than Schmidt, but I'm less convinced Schmidt is a starter. If that all makes sense. Nelson is more of a fun utility arm and I suspect Yajure and Abreu both end up relievers.

Mike (Ny): Gut feeling, does Tri City have an affiliate next year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: There seems to be a couple spots left to fill in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic A+ league. Guessing Aberdeen is one, but Tri-City probably makes the most sense as the last slot. Then again Hudson Valley didn't make a ton of sense, but there's other factors at play here than facility quality, et.al.

Wayne woodrow (Dennison): Are the Mets down on f alvarez? Seems like this talk of realmuto would dictate a trade.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Realmuto might not even still be on this contract by the time Alvarez is ready, and it's likely he wouldn't be a full time catcher if he was. Don't think it has a ton to do with him (and they are still high on Alvarez anyway)

Flipai (Maryland): I’m tired of watching Instagram videos of Jasson Dominguez, I want hard rumors and whispers of grandeur. What do you predict his path will be in 2021?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't have a great answer here. He was stateside for like a week in Spring and wasn't at instructs so it's difficult to say "he's ready for A-ball" or whatever. I'd guess some time in extended to acclimate and then see where he is. Normally he'd be an obvious fit for Pulaski or SI, but welllllllll

Ralphie (Boulder ): Are you out on c paddack?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A little? Think he's a good 3 and there will still be some number 2 type seasons in there now and again. It was a weird season.

Bob prince (Pittsburgh): Kbryan hayes looks as if he’ll be a foundation pic for the Gucci’s but doesn’t he seem likely to be overrated going in to 2021. Hard hit rate is great and steals as well but the lineup looks putrid

Jeffrey Paternostro: If overrated by fantasy counting stats, sure. But man it looked like the power breakout I'd hoped was eventually coming, and the rest of the profile is strong.

Lazlo (Cynical Regression Ct.): Sandy was downright candid about Bauer. Should Mets fans start trying to make peace with the idea of him coming here? (Those of us who feel a conflict about it)

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eh, Alderson isn't gonna come in his first day back on the job and poo-poo signing a top free agent. I assume the Mets will be having conversations with his agent and what not, but I don't see them in the top three or four landing spots for Bauer. Doesn't mean they won't sign him of course.

jugdish (Faber): Who do you have for 2021? Kershaw,price,scherzer?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd take Scherzer over Kershaw I think. Price a decent gap to third. Scherz feels like he still has more dominant stuff, and I know he's been banged up, but I'd be more worried about Kershaw's back as far as injury issues goes.

brad (NJ): How much has Jo Adell's value fallen, a year ago he was trout 3.0 and Acuna 2.0, now there is a lot of bust talk and he may never develop the hit tool....???

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm pretty glad I don't have to rank Jo Adell this year. The in-zone contact rate was bad which seems stickier than some other negative hit tool markers. The swing has gotten even noisier though, so it's possible there is a mechanical fix here.

Mike (Ny): So what do you see from Juan Soto next year assuming we have close to a full season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He will have an MVP type season even if the Nats aren't good enough for him to actually win it.

Greg (NY): Obviously Indians/Mets related, but who do you think has more value between Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, and, is it close? Maybe it depends on the team that is acquiring either?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Gimenez is the better major leaguer right now and has three more years of control so...I guess you could argue Rosario still has more upside but even that is a stretch at this point.

Lazlo (Dangerously Optimistic Blvd): Please wildly speculate on the Mets FO hires for President Ops and GM.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wild speculation: David Forst POBO, Billy Owens GM

Tony (Jersey): Any high-priced good players you think the Mets would be wise to target in a trade where they wouldn't have to give up much in return?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Someone suggested Chris Sale to me recently which is an interesting one, but difficult to do until he's throwing again I suppose. It's also tricky to know who is actually available. Like would Houston dump the rest of the Greinke deal? Maybe!

Lazlo (Safely in the basement): It leaked the Mets interview was Hill. Does that make him the leader in the clubhouse for the job?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I think this is more a function of his being available and the Mets not having to ask permission so they could just knock out an interview right away. I suppose since he is literally the only known candidate, then sure.

Mike (Minneapolis): Is there a spot for Kiriloff in Minnesota next season? Will it depend on Nelson Cruz's status for their lineup/roster construction?

Jeffrey Paternostro: To an extent, although I think he's another player who could use a month or two of consolidation in Triple-A (and that would conveniently allow Minnesota to game his service time as well)

Biff hooper (Bayport): What has happened to josh bell?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He had a bad 200 PA. I will confess to not watching a ton of the 2020 Pirates, so I can't speak too deeply to his particular struggles. Certainly possible that 2019 was a career year type season, but I wouldn't write him off, as he could easily go back to .270, 25+ home runs in 2021.

jugdish (Faber): Who do you like 2021? Pls rank Edward cabrera,max myer,nick lodolo,Zach thompson,liberatore,jt brubaker.

Jeffrey Paternostro: For purely 2021 I'd bank on Cabrera getting the most run other than Brubaker, and I think he's better than Brubaker.

brad (NJ): without a minor league season, how can we assess which spects took a step forward last year and which ones took a step backwards?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Obviously you can look at Ian Anderson and say "oh that's a 7 change up now," but for guys without non-MLB time you are mostly looking for broad strokes. DL Hall is throwing harder now and throwing more strikes (enough strikes? Well, we'll see). Grayson Rodriguez maintained his velocity bump. To cite two examples from today's list. There's examples in the other direction too, but nothing is gonna replace the developmental reps you get in games. That said, there's some percentage of the prospect population that got major gains this year, and some percentage that took a step back. It's just much more difficult to discern. I've having a great time, thanks for asking.

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's a brisk hour for today, we will be back next Friday. Red Sox and both Chicago teams teed up for next week.

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