Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday July 30, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Since there’s no afternoon game (boo) I am watching the Svenska Cupen final instead. Pulling for IFK to pull the upset. Also pulling for the baby to sleep through the chat.

George (NY): Justin Wilson low key been great for the Mets? Think they can extend him for another 2 years and say 15MM?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The most Mets move would be to overuse him this year (glances at usage so far) extend him, and then have him mostly unavailable and ineffective for the next two years.

Taylor (jericho): If Peterson is, in fact, 91-94 instead of 87-91, is that the difference between a 3 and 4, or more of a 4 vs 5?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Was he ever really that low. He dipped into the upper-80s on occasion last year but it was more 88-93. The broader issue is the fastball can play a little flat at times and he can really only command it armside. Jarrett thiinks low 3/high 4 is in play but he remains the high guy on staff there.

CyMature (Cooperstown): Why no Tristan Casas in Red Sox summer camp? Surely two dozen AAAA pitchers is enough? Well, too many wouldn't be enough.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Those kind of decisions are going to be highly individualistic to the player but the Sox didn’t really carry any low minors bats. Could be they are comfortable with what he’s doing on the side now, or they just wanted to prioritize 2020 roster flex. I don’t think there is a right answer to how to use the pool per se.

Frank (NY): Mets fan here. I've been pleasantly surprised by first starts of Matz, Wacha, and Peterson. What do you think? Have you seen anything from any of them in these starts that makes you a little more optimistic (about each of them specifically)than you were preseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wacha has always been at least “fine” when healthy. He’s just rarely healthy and the Mets do tend to struggle to manage more fragile arms over the medium term, like say Steven Matz. Matz I will say seems to have figured out how to be a FB/CH/CU arm and the CH has improved enough over the last couple years that I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s more of a 3 than a 4 this year for whatever 12 starts are worth. Peterson I talked a little bit about above and he was mostly what I expected in his first start. Think he got a little lucky here and there as his command wasn’t particularly fine (although the Mets defense is going to do him no favors) and he needs to tighten the slider or add something with gloveside movement/command to get MLB righties out over the long term. He’s perfectly serviceable but feels more like a 4/5 to me at present. He’s by far the Mets best option for the fifth starter spot though which is its own separate issue.

Danny (NJ): If the schedule ends up moving around (which it appears to be), and the Mets end up with 2 off-days in a 5 day span, could you see them going 4-man rotation in a go around to send David Peterson down a few days to get that year back?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I’d expect he’d be optioned if and when Stroman can actually run with minimal pain. I’d say without pain but it’s the Mets. I’d say he might be a better option than Porcello by that point too, but...it’s the Mets.

Derwin (NY): If Andres Gimenez is actually 7 glove and 7 (or 65) runner, what does that mean for the profile?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can’t go quite that high on the glove. I suppose it isn’t impossible he gets there but it’s not explosive and twitchy in that way. The speed/glove tools were always going to allow him to carve out a MLB bench role at worst (much like we have seen so far), it comes down to making the swing changes work. He does seem to be getting the timing of the leg kick down a little better in comparison to what I saw last year, but it’s not good exit velo and I suspect better outer half fastballs are still gonna be a problem. He’s shown flashes of why I threw a plus hit tool on him in 2018 though.

Oliver (Ontario, CA): Watched Pearson pitch last night and boy am I excited to watch him pitch more. Are there any concerns with him Iā€™m overlooking?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We will have a round table up on his start tomorrow. You’d like to see him use the change more and show better command of the top end velo (more of the top end velo period), but he looked more like a starter than I expected, and the team overall was bullish in that regard.

Mike (Manhattan): Which of the yankees young super arms should we expect to see this season? Gil? Medina? Yajure? Deivi?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn’t suspect more than Deivi unless there’s a lot of roster issues

Gavin (Georgia): With Markakis coming back for the Braves, does this mean it is less likely that Pache comes up this season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Short answer: Yes, at least in a meaningful starting role

Kevin (Kansas City): Looking back at your Royals top 10 list, do you regret not having Singer be number 1?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have my concerns about Witt’s hit tool, but nah. More upside there and I’m one of the bigger Singer boosters on staff. Check back in a few years about how much I regret Erick Pena’s ranking though

Kyle (Knoxville): The Astros seem to keep rolling out interesting arms in the bullpen. Do any of them project to be studs?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is a slight cheat since he's currently starting, but I think Javier could be devestating in a two-inning role where he can just spam the breaker.

Kyle (Knoxville): The Astros seem to keep rolling out interesting arms in the bullpen. Do any of them project to be studs?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is a slight cheat since he's currently starting, but I think Javier could be devestating in a two-inning role where he can just spam the breaker.

Jeff McNeil (Queens): I'm probably closer to a 7 than a 6 at this point lolz

Jeffrey Paternostro: No one will be happier than...well Jarrett Seidler, and he's pretty pleased right now since he gets to write a Nick Madrigal call up. But 7 is perennial all-star so let's put a pin in that one for a bit.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Baby is awake and IFK gave up a bad goal so probably time to sign off for now.