Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Keanan Lamb

Chat: Keanan Lamb

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday June 10, 2020 7:00 PM ET chat session with Keanan Lamb.

Keanan Lamb is a senior member of the Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team.

Keanan Lamb: Cold filtered, goes down smooth, always refreshing, it's draft time!!!

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Who falls to the Cards at 21?

Keanan Lamb: As it's been termed, the Cardinals draft "devil magic" means they'll probably scoop up someone nobody thought would be there and he'll be in the big leagues in 18 months.

rwittmann6 (Pittsburgh): Who would you guess will be the best player drafted who will choose not to sign (or doesn't get drafted high enough to sign)? Not including players who fail medicals

Keanan Lamb: There are rumors out there that Jared Kelley, the prep righty out of Texas who can run it up close to 100mph, might have too big a number for where he could go. Reports of $3.5 million as the asking price means anyone after the Dbacks at 18 would be paying over-slot.

Yo (Adrian): Are the Tigers gonna regret taking a first baseman over Austin Martin? I know Torkelson can hit, but come on.

Keanan Lamb: Austin Martin is a really good player who can fit wherever you need him to go. Tork could be a monster in the middle of the lineup. They are both deserving to be picked that high, however, I don't think there will be buyer's remorse.

mikewilsonelgin (Rhode island): Why does major league baseball value left handed starting pitching? It is easy to stack a line up with righties. There are usually cheap corner outfielders available whose sole skill is smashing left-handed pitching. Only 20% of the pitchers in the hall of fame are left-handed. Why? Rs

Keanan Lamb: Because there are also a lot of elite lefty hitters who struggle against lefty pitching. Studies have shown the platoon split has a bigger effect on lefty vs lefty than righty vs righty. Also, presuming this is a question applying to Asa Lacy, he has an arsenal that could be equally affective to both righties and lefties.

George (of the Jungle): There a pretty good chance Kjerstad winds up the best hitter in this class?

Keanan Lamb: Good timing! It's certainly possible, he has incredible hand-eye coordination that finds a way to meet the bat to ball. He swings a lot outside of the zone, though, so as long as he doesn't get himself out too much or tightens up his pitch selection, it's fathomable.

Jimmy (Mars): Surprised at Heston going #2?

Keanan Lamb: He's a good choice for an underslot strategy, maybe targeting an expensive bonus high schooler with pick 30.

John (Seattle): These teams are going underslot. Miami passing on Austin Martin, too! What gives?

Keanan Lamb: Not sure if Meyer will necessarily be that much underslot. There is a feeling there will be some high school players who could slide because of the lack of looks this spring, with them expecting hefty overslot bonuses relative to where they pick.

rwittmann6 (Pittsburgh): Does the first few picks going off script make teams picking later happy or nervous? Basically, so they like the chaos or not?

Keanan Lamb: I had said previously said the top 7 players could be picked in some jumbled order, not expecting this kind of chaos. The next tier of players has even more to choose from, could even be more unpredictable.

rwittmann6 (Pittsburgh ): With Baltimore cutting an under slot deal, who do you think they're targeting at 30? Bitsko or another prep arm?

Keanan Lamb: I'm assuming they have an under-the-table handshake agreement with a prep player like Bitsko. Slot for #30 is $2.365 million, so if they can save anywhere between 1-3 million they can offer more than any other team can towards the back-half of the first round.

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Has Torkelson played 3B before?

Keanan Lamb: https://twitter.com/keananlamb/status/1270857693822095362?s=20

Tom (Houston): When will we see a high schooler picked?

Keanan Lamb: Zac Veen getting this far is surprising, have to think the Padres are dancing at the moment.

rwittmann6 (Pittsburgh ): Minus the order, does this feel like the right 10 players went in the top 10?

Keanan Lamb: Hassell is the only one outside my top 10 prospects who got into the top 10 picks, but not surprised at all -- not a reach by any means.

Jim (Albany): Is Crochet gonna wind up a reliever?

Keanan Lamb: Every one of the pitchers selected in the first two rounds, outside maybe Burl Carraway if he goes that high, is chosen to be a starter first. Part of the decision and evaluation process is wondering what happens at their ceiling, their floor, and the likely outcome. In Crochet's case, his floor could be Josh Hader.

Austin (Chicago): Who's the better defender between Dingler and Bailey?

Keanan Lamb: Bailey is the better defender now, Dingler has the potential to be better since he's still learning the position after transitioning from center field. Both have plus arms, Bailey knows how to work a staff and call a game.

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Bailey going to SF to play alongside Bart. Seems like a mistake considering their farm system needs almost everything else.

Keanan Lamb: The ESPN broadcast did a good job of laying it out. We could see a universal DH by the time Bailey is looking to break into the bigs, rotating him and Bart by always keeping their bat in the lineup and saving their legs throughout the year. I won't argue the merit of your argument that they could use other types in their system, it's valid, but he could provide the same amount of value than anyone else they could have selected.

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): When does Garrett Mitchell go?

Keanan Lamb: I'm beginning to wonder the same myself. I wasn't as high on him as others in the industry, and it's possible he could slide deep into the 20's (or I just jinxed it and he's being taken right this very second)

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Did the Red Sox just punt the draft?

Keanan Lamb: Gary asking all the important questions tonight... I'm really not sure what to think here given the fact they have no second round pick. If he doesn't sign, you could label it a "punt"... if he does sign, that's a huge amount of outside pressure on a kid to live up to the billing of his draft position.

rwittmann6 (Pittsburgh): You pro or against Bostons strategy? Seems risky to go so under slot without a 2nd no?

Keanan Lamb: Conceivably speaking, they could have tried to go underslot on someone else with this pick and then get him in the 3rd if they liked him that much. Maybe his number was that high and the lack of bonus pool money forced their hand. Tough to say.

brad (NJ): The Yankees first pick of the draft each year, not one has panned out since Jeter. Hughes is questionable for panning out and Judge was a 1st round comp pick, but not their first pick of that draft, it was IPK. That being said, please tell me the Yankees wont be drafting another toolsy SS/OF like howard or Tucker, and be smart and take a safe college SP in round 1 and then go for upside with Blaze Jordan in round 2....

Keanan Lamb: They've picked some good players since Jeter they just couldn't get to sign because of their bonus pool -- Mark Prior and Gerrit Cole come to mind. They've been doing a good job of waiting back and seeing who falls to them late in the round, there isn't much else you can do when you win a lot of games and don't get to pick higher in the round. Blaze Jordan is an interesting name to watch to see where he ends up tomorrow...

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Was the pick of Jordan Walker more about his character than his talent? He seemed like a second/third round pick just based on his talent.

Keanan Lamb: Jordan Walker is raw, sure, the physical projection and ceiling is unlimited. The fact he's such a smart kid with good habits and makeup help you believe he'll get to that potential.

GaryJohnson (Stuck at Home): Bitsko to TB. They (and Toronto) win the draft.

Keanan Lamb: The Rays are an embarrassment of riches. The Jays were gifted their pick. This draft is so deep you can't make sweeping proclamations after just 37 picks; a lot left to go down tomorrow night.

Keanan Lamb: I love the draft. Hope you all enjoyed it, too. So many good players still available I'll be glued to the TV for every pick, follow along with me on Twitter @keananlamb to answer your questions and analysis for the notable selections.