Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Craig Goldstein

Chat: Craig Goldstein

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday April 22, 2020 1:00 PM ET chat session with Craig Goldstein.

Craig Goldstein is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus.

Craig Goldstein: Okay let's get this thing going

Scott (San Diego): In a deep dynasty league, I was offered a huge package of Adell, Kelenic, Gore, Waters, Luzardo, Ronny Mauricio and Joey Bart for my Xander Bogarts. I hadn't planned on trading Bogarts but this is tempting. Should I do it?

Craig Goldstein: that's an easy yes for me

Byron (Portland): Please help me pick a KBO team. The Heroes were runners up last year and have never won a championship, but have only existed since 2008. The Twins haven't won since 1994 and have been in the league since the beginning, 1982, and mostly been pretty bad. The Tigers match my MLB team name, but just won two years ago and have been bad since.

Craig Goldstein: We're going to be running something on each individual KBO team and why to root for them soon, but Patrick Dubuque tells me Lotte is the Mariners of the KBO and they always need more supporters.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): How do you see the proposed MiLB contraction plan playing out? Should we just get used to the idea that there will be a lot less teams next year?

Craig Goldstein: Yep, I think MiLB will do whatever they can to hold on to as many teams as possible but they're in a pretty impossible situation from which to negotiate. I'd expect a lot of teams to be cut.

Barkeep (South Scottsdale): Hey Craig, thanks for the chat. Which good young players are playing exactly how you would have projected, and who are some guys you missed on?

Craig Goldstein: Man it's harder for me to remember the good ones? I was ALL about Arismendy Alcantara. I don't know if you're done with Lewis Brinson but I thought he was a star, too.

Jacob (Charlie's Heart): Two part question - 1) Will you now watch Top Chef every week and play Top Chef fantasy with me 2) I've decided the answer to the above is yes

Craig Goldstein: 1) no. 2) also no.

Apologies for the delayed responses I have a grumpy two-month old strapped to my chest

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): The comparables for Grayson Rodriguez in the 2020 book were staggering: Glasnow, Kershaw & Giolito. What do you think the driving forces were for these comps? Thanks for your insights.

Craig Goldstein: Those are heady, but it's worth noting the comps are mostly for fun. Steven Goldman did a great job digging into them for this article (and how they're not tethered to the projections): https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/56959/pecota-2020-the-most-bizarre-comparables/

Waite hoyt (Cincinnati): Thoughts on a few relatively under the radar pitchers: Eli hernandez,Austin voth,Corbin burnes and Tyler mahle

Craig Goldstein: I like Voth a bit. Probably a fourth starter for me? Burnes I think ends up in relief. I wrote about Mahle's change in pitch-mix last year but I think he's more of a sixth starter when it's all said and done. Not that into Hernandez, though I'll admit to not acquainting myself with him a ton either.

coffeeguy8806 (Chicagoooo): What is your favorite sensory experience of baseball? I always think of the monologue by Ray Liotta in Field of Dreams. Smell of the grass, leather in your face... Like many pastoral activities I think this is very individualized and I am curious what is YOURS!

Craig Goldstein: It depends a bit on the stadium you're entering, but there's a moment when you're walking up to the field after entering the gates, and you kind of crest the walkway and the field just materializes into view and it has always just been one of the most calming, affirming experiences for me.

Deron johnson (Cincinnati): Been a fair amount of criticism of the angels for blowing up the Petersen/stripling trade. I’m a little confused as to what the dodgers were doing. I get why they wanted to move Petersen but why stripling? It seems like the dodgers bullpen has been their Achilles heel the last few years and their rotation while great doesn’t have the greatest health track record.

Craig Goldstein: They wanted to shed salary to avoid paying some of the luxury tax, and Stripling and Pederson were part of it. Stripling was a piece the Angels wanted for letting the Dodgers offload Pederson while giving up a relatively valuable piece like Rengifo. They brought in a few starters like bringing back Alex Wood, and also had Brusdar Graterol for the pen. May and Gonsolin were also rotation fallback options.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): When MLB ultimately decides (and rightly so) that no live games can be held in local markets, how long before they will begin to refund tickets already paid for? Imagine they will hold out as long as they can.

Craig Goldstein: Yeah, basically everything MLB has done in the last...5-plus years, probably more, has been about short term gains. If they turn off a bunch of fans while holding on to their money and generating a little more interest, who cares, right?

Daniel (Baltimore): Remember how freaking good Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols were?

Craig Goldstein: Hell yeah. I think some of that appreciation has been coming back with the Miggy v. Clemens at-bat that had been going around on twitter recently. I also pair them in terms of impact because not only are they two of the best right-handed hitters in a generation but they also came up playing LF/3B and made late-season/postseason impacts before eventually ending up at first.

Raymond (Washington DC): If there isn't a season this year, which seems increasingly likely to me, has the MLB said yet what happens with free agency and contracts? Or don't we know yet?

Craig Goldstein: Yes, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a deal. $170 million gets distributed to the players, and players get the same amount of service time as they did the prior season (so Mookie Betts and Marcus Stroman will become free agents, etc.). I wrote about the service time implications here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/57956/dissecting-the-service-time-implications-of-the-mlb-mlbpa-agreement/

meswan (Texas): Hi Craig, thanks for taking my question - I thoroughly enjoy the BP chhat feature. Royce Lewis continues to appear quite highly ranked across the various publications. I have had him on my Dynasty roster since he was drafted and am starting to question whether he will be worth holding a roster spot going forward based on his minor league numbers. I won’t drop him but wanted your take on whether he still projects high in your mind or do you think the performance indicators say otherwise. Unfortunately, I have not watched him play a game yet. Thanks in advance!

Craig Goldstein: A lot of that depends on what the cost of the roster spot is (size of the league, size of the roster). There's still a TON of talent there but the swing is still spotty and while he's undergone a lot of changes to try and fix it, it's not quite there (last we saw, anyway). The sources I've talked to even beyond our team (where Keanan did a great job: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/50435/is-it-time-to-worry-about-royce-lewis/) have come away feeling as Keanan did. He can still fix it! There's plenty of time! But it's not all there right now.

Fred Whitfield (Cleveland): How do you see the trade deadline this year? Would think it would be pretty dead with probably too many teams still alive in a shortened season

Craig Goldstein: Yeah it's going to be a weird one no matter what, but I'm not sure that it will be dead because of contention status, so much as the teams that aren't in it are basically stripmined already. Maybe Whit Merrified finally goes somewhere?

Jacob (Bethesda): Apologies if you've been asked this before, but let's say in a hypothetical, the MLB season this year is just a 60 game sprint to the playoffs and that's what we get (would be a lot of fun tbh). What team(s) do you think would gain the biggest advantage from so few games, and what top team would take the biggest hit?

Craig Goldstein: Don't think I've had this specific question. The broader themes, to me, are that teams that rely on depth (Dodgers, Yankees, etc.) might see a little less of an advantage because there's less time for guys to miss and that depth to shine/that lack of depth to surface for other teams. On the flip side if we get 30-man rosters maybe that balances out a bit. Also teams with bullpen issues might see a small boost, not putting their better arms through the grind of a long season. Lastly, teams that went deep into the playoffs get the double dip of a long layoff for their starters (Nationals), plus less mileage in season. That's a big boost.

Jose canesco (The next mets gm): Who do you see as the closer in Miami? Stanek,kindler,urena. Door number 4?

Craig Goldstein: We have Kintzler slotted there at the moment, but I think it could be Steckenrider if he gets right or maybe even Yimi Garcia

Harvard on the hocking (Athens): If we have a compressed schedule aren’t we likely to have a lot fewer wins by starting pitchers.

Craig Goldstein: sure. fewer games would lead to fewer wins.

Jen (Chicago): Which fan base do you think missing the start of this season was most unfair too, everybody is not an option? I was looking forward to my White Sox starting this season with real hope for the first in forever so so so much

Craig Goldstein: Yeah, I think teams like the White Sox and Reds who were making real pushes after a fairly dormant period are getting the short straw a bit, but also the Nationals fans who don't get to see their pennant lifted, and their WS rings given out...that sucks too.

Steve Garvey is not my father (Los angeles): Thoughts on josh Rojas of az with the questionable health of peralta lamb Calhoun and escobar’s contract expiring do you see him as a core piece for the dbacks going forward or just a 25th roster kind of guy

Craig Goldstein: I like Rojas more than a 25th man (or 26th, now), but I don't know that he's a "core piece" either. Has the potential but I'd say the median output is probably "really useful while he's relatively inexpensive."

Jerry (Tuscaloosa): Understanding full well that nobody actually wants a season canceled, which team would it be "best" for, and which team worst?

Craig Goldstein: We're actually looking at a series of articles that digs into this!

Craig Goldstein: Alright, I'm gonna call it a chat. Thanks to everyone for stopping by and remember Jesse Roche is back to answer all your fantasy questions on Friday.