Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday April 13, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and the co-host of the Three-Quarters Delivery podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Let’s celebrate one month of sheltering in place with a baseball chat

Enrique (Texas): Thoughts on Heriberto Hernandez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he makes a shallower team list (Rangers has around a half dozen dudes-mostly in the low minors-I wasn’t thrilled I had to leave off. He’s a little different than your typical toolset low minors Texas prospect in that he’s already a corner guy (with potential bat to spare) but similar long term hit tool questions

Enrique (Houston): Where do you think J.B. Bukauskas ultimately ends up? Last year was derailed by non-baseball injury but he looked fantastic when he returned briefly. Think he more likely becomes a number 2/3 starter? Or a high-end late-inning arm? Thanks in advance!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Late-inning guy assuming the health and command cooperates. He’s not super young anymore and the pro track record isn’t great outside of that AFL stint everyone saw

Loria (Milwaukee): What do you think of deep keeper leagues or dynasty leagues allowing trades & acting as if this an additional "off season" for something to do??? Smart and fun, or unfair and complecated?? (If it matters, Dr. Fauci is my co-owner)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am fine with it. You don’t have to make moves if you want to stand pat given the uncertainty around the season.

Enrique (Texas): BP seems to be higher than most on Kyle Muller. Do you think he stays in the rotation? Or do you think it's more likely that he becomes a high-end bullpen arm and maybe you just value that more than other sites? TIA!

Jeffrey Paternostro: When stuff like this happens with a Braves prospect it’s usually because David Lee liked him a lot when he saw him and this is the case here. It’s mostly based off a rotation projection, yes.

Enrique (Texas): What does Brailyn Marquez need to do to take a step forward? What do you think is his most likely outcome?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Just really keep doing what he did in the second half. The stuff is all there just need to see consistency and durability to move the scale more towards starter than late inning arm

Bobo (Syracuse): What sort of career do you project for F. Mejia? Does he stay at catcher and will ever be a force in fantasy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will be literally the last prospect writer to give up on Mejia, and honestly the acceleration of the automated strike zone is probably a boon for him sticking there. I've always loved the bat.

JErik20 (Texas): Think that Noah Song is worthy of a dynasty stash in leagues with deep(ish) prospect rosters? (i.e. 250 total prospects)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would say no at this point, just seems unlikely he's playing minor league baseball before hes 25 or 26. And you can find a pitcher in the 150-200 range that isn't that far off him as a dynasty piece anyway.

Keyser Soze (Utah): Lewin Diaz question. I've seen more than one "expert" comp his upside and profile to Jose Abreu, however, his rankings don't seem to reflect a player of that caliber. Is it just that the 1B/power profile doesn't warrant a lot of value? Or do you think the Abreu comp paints too rosy a picture?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A little of both probably. Abreu is like a 7 hit and Diaz's bat isn't that good, and if your bat isn't that good if it slips at all relative to the projection, you've got a pretty average first base profile.

Rusty Montana (Billings): Hi Jeff, Thanks for doing the chat. I hope you and yours are good and safe during this time. Do you have any thoughts on Alexfri Planez? Searching the site, I didn't see any prospect team hits about him. Was just curious if you had any reports or information on him. Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: We didn't catch him in his brief AZL cameo or instructs, and for deeper thoughts on this phenomena you can check out Three-Quarters Deliver Episode 13.

Loria (Milwaukee): In a deep, keeper 5 x 5 where prospects are free keepers for 3 yrs after promotion. Team is currently built around young, mostly free OF of Trout, Acuna, Soto. Went all in in the draft on SPs and got Pearson, Patino, May, and Manning. Can u give me expected Fantasy projection, upside projection, and timing for each?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Pearson and May should be up "this season" whatever that is, and both have roughly number 2 starter upside with May more likely to stay in a rotation (although it's the Dodgers so that role could be squishy). Manning could use a full consolidation year in Triple-A so you are looking at "next year" for that profile. He's divisive internally. I've come around on him some as a mid-rotation guy, but we have people that see a two pitch guy with an inconsistent if plus curve. Patino is the furthest away, but may have the highest upside.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Cleaned the queue so I am going to go watch The Football Ramble play Virtua Striker. Stay safe everyone.