Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday March 23, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the Three Quarters Delivery podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will be bopping around the house to stir my caramelizing onions and probably microwave this coffee from an hour ago but let's chat.

Vic (Baltimore): Pearson, Whitley, and Manning. I drafted all three in a 5 yr keeper. Which of the 3 will likely still be on my team when I can only keep 7 total in subsequent years?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Pitchers, man. They are all highly touted prospects and first round picks, so health permitting I assume at worst they will be bouncing around in Dylan Bundyish purgatory. Pearson has the best late-inning relief fallback if you want to look at a "dynasty-useful" floor. I'd assume all will still be rosterable at least though.

Craig (Chicago): Cole Newman sent back down. Does that surprise you? Do you expect him to come back up and help PIT later this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Tucker? Teams are sending guys down now because of the uncertainty around retroactive service time once the season actually starts, so this is mostly perfunctory. I still generally believe in him long term more than Kevin Newman, but Tucker hasn't really forced the issue in the middle infield there yet.

Craig (Chicago): What type of contribution do you expect Edward Cabrera to make in MIA this season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He only has a handful of starts above A-ball and there is even more uncertainty around the minor league season than the major league one. I suspect at worst there will be some sort of taxi squad for 40-man guys (which Cabrera is one), but even in a normal season I don't know that you'd see him before Late Summer. In this surely-truncated one, you probably won't see him at all.

Not Craig (cdgoldstein@thevoice.com): Bit of a fan of The Voice Jeff? As a rock music fan, Germany and Holland are brilliant. That said, having a favourite version of the voice seems very dependent on your musical tastes. Please discuss your love of the voice.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I prefer France for the diversity of styles. America and UK tend to be very American Idoly, too many samey, overly-coached, 70-grade karaoke singers that just want to do runs, and the US version lends itself too much to boring radio country otherwise. I enjoy Holland and Portugal a fair bit, but with la plus belle voix you get a little bit of everything. Also I have a soft spot for Jacques Brel and Serge Gainsbourg so...

Vic (Baltimore): Why not start the baseball season in mid-May and simply hold the 1st month without fans in attendance?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The teams still have to fly and hit airports and hotels. Not having fans in the stadium protects the public at large, but if COVID-19 starts going around locker rooms, it could disrupt any attempt at a season generally. Patience will be a virtue here.

Jefferson Airplane (Boston): Curious, do you think there will be baseball this season? If yes, do you think fans will be in attendance?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm less optimistic than I was a couple weeks ago, but I'd still put the likelihood of some sort of season at 75% or so. You could probably hold off until July and pull off something like a compacted 90 or 100 game season. I suspect some of that will still be without fans, and I don't know how quickly they will come back once the gates open anyway. So much of team's revenue is tied up in the TV contracts over live attendance though, so there is incentive for the league to play regardless.

Will (Indianapolis): Outside of their top 4 guys, who's your breakout guy in the Cubs farm system this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Kohl Franklin could be a Top 101 guy next year, and I have a soft spot for the other Pedro Martinez, although he lacks all that much upside and may slide over to second.

matzabal (co): What can I expect from Jo Adell this season? Is he worth rostering in a 10 team fantasy league?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd want some clarity on how and if teams are manipulating service time before I took any prospect in a redraft format without a clear path to playing time, like say Luis Robert.

Craig (Chicago ): Looking at fantasy rankings from various sources/sites, Pablo Lopez is always ranked fairly highly amonst NL Only SP. I do not see anything to really substantiate this in his numbers. Your thoughts and where do you rank him amongst NL Starting Pitchers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I ended up drafting him in the 16-team TINO dynasty, and I think I like him more than the median anyway. It's a good park for his skillset, although the fastball can be a bit too hittable. It's a legit plus change though, and he's gonna get opportunities. I agree there isn't a ton of upside in a shallower format though.

Craig (Chicago): Seeing hype around Elieser Hernandez for this upcoming season? Can’t really figure out why. Anything specific you can point to for the optimism?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't seen the hype myself, but I've never been a huge fan, especially not as a starter.

Brady (Under a warm blanket): Why was Misawa gone from All Japan for so long during 1989? Injury? Also, what stage of development was Kawada in during 88-89?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Torn ACL against Rickey Steamboat (which is a fun match as I recall). Early Kawada is a ton of fun actually as part of a fiery babyface tag team Footloose, but very different from what comes after.

matzabal (co): What do you think MLB should do about the draft and lack of scouting?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't have a great answer here, and a lot of it depends on timing. I could see a lot of wood bat summer leagues popping up in July/August in anticipation of a draft in November or at Winter Meetings or something. I could see MLB seeing kiboshing the whole thing as a useful "cost-cutting" measure that also gives them a ton of leverage over a giant 2021 draft class.

Craig (Chicago): In 5 of his 7 seasons, Alex Wood has had a sub-3.90 ERA with 27+ GS. Do you expect Wood to bounce back to the pitcher he has been prior to his disaster season last year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He really hasn't been all that durable for most of those though. If I had to place my chips down, he's been hurt enough by this point, that there's significant risk the stuff just doesn't come back this time. Or the health doesn't come back. Or both,

BurleighGrimes (Philly): Let’s say there is no season this year. Do you think a particular type of prospect (or a specific current prospect) is hurt the worst by the lost year of development? Or does everyone simultaneously being on the shelf mean that everyone is hurt equally?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Anyone coming off an injury layoff, especially post-TJ pitchers, but also even someone like Jordan Groshans. I think it's rough all over though.

Karl (hands): Which of these 2B options are you buying in an OBP league: Lourdes Gurriel, Kolten Wong, Brandon Lowe, Rougned Odor (15% k rate in ST), Nick Madrigal, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Newman or Nick Kingery? Alternatively, an opportunistic owner has offered me Ketal Marte for Josh Hader. The speed of Madrigal is attractive, but he sounds a bit Dee Gordon-ish, and wonder how you think his situation will play out.

Jeffrey Paternostro: We are apparently the official publication of Nick Madrigal, so...(I'd be fine with Brandon Lowe too). If this is otherwise a standard roto I'd take Marte for Hader though, assuming you have other relief options.

Buff (Colorado): How are the Dodgers likely to handle Josiah Gray? Bring him up as a relief piece later this year? Keep him stretched out as a starter?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The latter but then the former would be my best guess. Given the contracted season, I assume they will just have him log innings though, and I like him long term as a starter anyway.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Microwaved coffee is not ideal folks. Neither is anything else right now, but we will see you next week.